Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[Intl Professor]

As I've already fingered Dems for corruption of vote in California primary of 2016, here's more on corruption of the process by the Reeps in Ohio. Prison gerrymandering, huuuummmm. Very creative!

Voting Rights Roundup: New report highlights Ohio GOP's odious use of 'prison gerrymandering'

I left out, above, another solution: an independent commission, which others can point to. In California that seems to have worked well. First off to lose were pieces of the Berman/Waxman combine. Similarly in the Bay Area if memory serves.

 

[Intl Professor]

Here's another land mine. Skimmed most but the end paragraphs reminded me of the sea change in treatment of sexual predators:

"Helping the rich get richer through offshore maneuvers is not a 'benign benefit,' said Harrington, the Copenhagen Business School professor. 'When the rich get richer, the poor get poorer, because individual wealthy people are not paying their fair share of taxes.'”

“'It won’t be lost on wealth managers and those in the offshore industry,' she said, 'that we are reaching sort of French Revolution levels of inequality and injustice.'”

Paradise Papers Exposes Donald Trump-Russia links and Piggy Banks of the Wealthiest 1 Percent - ICIJ

Nothing of interest except a strumpet connect with Wilbur Ross which will probably go away. This might be helpful to the current debate on tax cuts which may, only just may, effect the economy.

 

[Ulmo]

Any ideas how Saudi Arabia news is going to affect markets?

 

[Intl Professor]

According to a few media outlets the Kingdom has promised no particular change in U.S. investments because of arrest of the billionaire prince with so much invested in U.S. companies, including any change in investment strategy or because of change in ownership of the shares. As regards the macro-political environment, some sharp possibilities mentioned above. Those media outlets--PBS, CNN, NYT (superficial glance, not definitive)--it looks like a branch of the family is consolidating power at the same time the 30 something Crown Prince is pushing harder on Yemen (totally ineffective yet destructive), more on other Gulf States, and purging as of last week some clerics and liberal critics of he regime. I think he is a good force for needed diversification but apparently a real "purge" is going on. (Last from Gary Sick on PBS Newshour Weekend.)

Eventually if the worst happens with another element of turmoil unleashed in the Middle East, you'll see a market response. Now I have no competence to even make a guess, but then I don't think the market is rational anyway.

 

[TMSE]

According to a few media outlets the Kingdom has promised no particular change in U.S. investments because of arrest of the billionaire prince with so much invested in U.S. companies, including any change in investment strategy or because of change in ownership of the shares. As regards the macro-political environment, some sharp possibilities mentioned above. Those media outlets--PBS, CNN, NYT (superficial glance, not definitive)--it looks like a branch of the family is consolidating power at the same time the 30 something Crown Prince is pushing harder on Yemen (totally ineffective yet destructive), more on other Gulf States, and purging as of last week some clerics and liberal critics of he regime. I think he is a good force for needed diversification but apparently a real "purge" is going on. (Last from Gary Sick on PBS Newshour Weekend.)

Eventually if the worst happens with another element of turmoil unleashed in the Middle East, you'll see a market response. Now I have no competence to even make a guess, but then I don't think the market is rational anyway.

Professor,
Is the new crown prince of Saudia showing traits of Kim Jong Un? Another tyrant in the making or a Martin Luther type reformist?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Hey! Let's add some more to the Saudi tumult!

Saudi deputy governor and 7 others killed in helicopter crash

Quote:

JEDDAH: The deputy governor of Asir province and seven others were killed in a helicopter crash in the southwestern mountains of Saudi Arabia on Sunday, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.

The accident happened Sunday night when the helicopter carrying Prince Mansour bin Muqrin and other regional officials were returning from a regular inspection tour, said the report, quoting a Ministry of Interior spokesman.

End quote.

 

[GoTslaGo]

@TMSE Here's a quick video about alternatives to GPUs for Neural Networks. Suspect Tesla may be working on developing something (FPGA or ASIC?).

 

[Intl Professor]

Professor,
Is the new crown prince of Saudia showing traits of Kim Jong Un? Another tyrant in the making or a Martin Luther type reformist?

It is already an absolute monarchy. It's just a parallel, not based on empirical knowledge, but if I were forced to find an analogy, SA has been since the death of the founding monarch, like the Soviet leadership transition after Khrushchev until Gorbachev. The young blood (of the 20th party Congress) finally succeeded after decades-old rule we termed a "gerontocracy."

SA ran through a series of sons of the old man. That was changed once, when a member of one branch beheaded the King at court. Nothing changed thereafter.

In the Soviet case and now changes in policy were required. I think Gorby meant well and had some good ideas but he tripped on the issue of democratizing the Party as well as society. The other reforms were daunting enough. At first most of the chatter from Western economists about reform in the USSR concluded nobody, even they, knew how a smooth transition in the Soviet case could be done. Also, Gorby was careless in dealing with the nationalities problem which is what did him in at the end.

I think the King and the Crown Prince will not have much trouble with economic transition and they certainly have access to the best advice available if they are willing to heed it. One would like to see reform of the clergy on a massive scale and rejection of Wahabism, but that is bound to stir up trouble. There is a nationalities "problem" within the Kingdom, too. I read somewhere long ago the area where oil is cheapest is opposite Iran in the Gulf and is predominantly Shiia. (Jhm is the guru on this.) Which adds to the political conflict with Iran.

I think it was very unwise for Trump to so clearly tip the scales in favor of Saudi Arabia during his visit. Also, and for similar reasons, to get so close to Netanyahu. In our first century or so, we seldom made a mistake in diplomacy, playing France, Britain, and sometimes others, against each other. I'm sure you, too, are old enough to remember Washington's Farewell Address warning about entangling alliances. Intervening into profound religious disputes where we have no understanding or sympathy for Islam is a recipe for disaster, like backing into a propeller—an old joke. The Western World has gone through this before. There is some wisdom in my parents' and grandmother's advice: beware talk about politics, religion, or sex. (Never got beyond baby talk with my grandfathers.)

Edit: Just some jumbled searching for straws.

 

[sundaymorning]

Any ideas how Saudi Arabia news is going to affect markets?

No one knows, that’s why we’re all here. If someone does, it means they have a money printing machine, which means they won’t here at all...

 

[kenliles]

macro:
In case anyone had any doubts-
Trump boasts: 'The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me'

 

[Paracelsus]

Any ideas how Saudi Arabia news is going to affect markets?

Yes @Ulmo, this Middle East news is of concern to me, and I think there could be a reaction to this because the world is growing very tired of it. The Renewable Revolution can't come fast enough:

Saudis accuse Iran of possible ‘act of war’ as regional tensions rise

I don't like seeing Iran, Pakistan, or Turkey in the 'conflict' section of the paper with the Aramco IPO ramping up. And I don't like seeing the source for the link with the twist of the story to be the WP since they printed the piece that was ultimately cited as the run-up source to the 2nd Gulf War.

"The Saudi statement claimed the government had “confirmed the role of Iran’s regime in manufacturing these missiles and smuggling them to the Houthi militias in Yemen.” It added that the government “reserves its right to respond to Iran in the appropriate time and manner.”"

And of course we have been selling them all the military supplies they need for the last 30 years when that day finally comes.

It has unfortunately proven very unhealthy to live anywhere between Saudi Arabia and a pipeline to Europe or to India/China. Just ask the Syrians. The US dropped over 26,000 bombs on Syria in 2016 alone. And much of southern Turkey has been on the 'not safe to travel' list since about 2014. The 2nd Iraq War started in Afghanistan, moved to Iraq, and ultimately 'ended' in Pakistan, where we still are today. But there is a strength and a resilience in the people of Iran and Turkey that was unexpected, which of course seems rather strange not to have expected that given the claim of General McArthour that the Turkish Brigade was the "Bravest of the Brave" in the Korean War. How quickly history is forgotten.

America dropped 26,171 bombs in 2016. What a bloody end to Obama's reign | Medea Benjamin

 

[Intl Professor]

A bit more on whether the Crown Prince and SA reform from the NYT.

Saudi Prince, Asserting Power, Brings Clerics to Heel

Not much that really assures except that a crackdown on religious authorities is happening and for the good. Whether it will be successful or not is argued by those thinking yes and those, no. Typical journalism. I continue to maintain it will be very difficult and perhaps dangerous although there was one germ of hope in this piece. Wahabism is supposed to teach the King must always be obeyed. Looks like Martin Luther approach might be the answer as suggested above. (I vaguely remember in the distant past when studying political theory that Luther came down to supporting the princes of that day against peasant rebellions.) I still think the foreign policy approach of the Crown Prince is very bad and not at all pragmatic.

 

[Intl Professor]

For political junkies only.

No earth shaking news in this link, but a summary of the dilemma each party is in. The title tells it all, they will be struggling for their identity until and perhaps through 2020. Silver's guy does not yet address in this summation what we might learn from the 2018 elections. As with Tesla, wait and see.

Why The 2016 Election Won’t Go Away

 

[Intl Professor]

Trump on Negotiations with N. Korea

I’m glad the prez has seized a dramatic venue to urge Kim to meet and negotiate with us. After all, according to that fount of wisdom, CNN, in addition to today’s diplomatic speech he earlier said he would be honored to meet the North Korean leader. Given the stakes that conflict would kill hundreds of thousands, if not lead to a nuclear war or at least a massive proliferation of nuclear weapons, all methods of negotiation should be on the table. Threats of prowess, big rocket fireworks, B-1 Bombers flying, all like hoofs pawing in the turf as for battle, have done their work. The blare of horns for battle may now be muted, or should I say, clipped, if horns of a different ilk.

In the past when such stakes were high, say with mercenary armies, once initial maneuvers showed one side would win or there would be stalemate, the two leaders would close with a handshake and both sides would retreat. Why waste valuable soldiers, as all generals say whether they mean it or not?

We thus see there is a corollary to Clausewitz: war is just business by other means. And business is where our dear leader claims much expertise, especially in the Art of the Deal. Already Senator Tammy Duckworth and others are asking how much another Korean conflict would cost taxpayers. Silly woman. Why would a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel who lost both legs in combat ask such things? How unmanly.

Alternatively, I have seen depicted in movies and TV—so it must be true—instances where armies would meet and the kings would proceed to no man’s land and fight until one was killed and the armies would be saved from the waste of fighting. One side would peaceably surrender to the other without mortal consequence.

In our times we can understand why the latter might not happen. One cannot imagine that Kim and Trump would meet at the no-man’s land at the 38th parallel with swords only for battle, however more sophisticated such a contest would be. They might be killed by a volley of fire in their respective backsides. That would be reality TV!

So that technique of negotiation is foreclosed. I’m reminded of a graphitti in the men’s room where I used to teach in the 60s: “nostalgia isn’t what it used to be.”

Senator Tammy Duckworth would make a fine presidential candidate for the Dems. (Oh, she’s ineligible, aside from being of the wrong gender. She was born in Thailand and thus she is an immigrant––horrors! A triple threat to manhood.)

 

[Intl Professor]

The basic facts of the theft of NSA's toolbox for surveillance is generally known, but this article gives more color and some damage assessments which are really scary.

Security Breach and Spilled Secrets Have Shaken the N.S.A. to Its Core

 

[neroden]

The NSA has been a criminal, constitution-violating operation since at least the beginning of the George W. Bush years. All of them should be in prison and many should be shot for treason. The Bluffdale spying-on-Americans center should be burned to the ground with extreme prejudice, the way we firebombed Tokyo.

It's unsurprising that the criminals at this criminal operation are so incompetent that they've leaked their dangerous weapons to every hacker in the world. When you start off by blatantly violating the Bill of Rights, you're not going to be careful about anything.

Criminals like Mr. Williams should never have been developing malware attack software; it's contrary to the actual job of the NSA and contrary to our security needs. The blame really lies at the top, in the traitors to the United States like Michael Rogers who ordered people like Mr. Williams to commit their crimes. Mr. Rogers, who has forfeited his "Admiral" title by committing treason, needs to be court-martialed and shot dead for giving aid and comfort to the enemies of the US while violating the US constitution.

Worth noting, the greatest "success" of this illegal team was an illegal and counterproductive computer hacking attack on Iran, which merely disgraced the US in the eyes of the world.

 

[zdriver]

The basic facts of the theft of NSA's toolbox for surveillance is generally known, but this article gives more color and some damage assessments which are really scary.

Security Breach and Spilled Secrets Have Shaken the N.S.A. to Its Core

I still can't seem to bring myself to hold a single shred of sympathy for them. None of this would've happened if the NSA wasn't stockpiling 0 day exploits for years upon years. The security community called them out on this after the Snowden leaks, and yet here we are years later with what's essentially a sad "told you so" situation.

 

[durkie]

The NSA has been a criminal, constitution-violating operation since at least the beginning of the George W. Bush years. All of them should be in prison and many should be shot for treason. The Bluffdale spying-on-Americans center should be burned to the ground with extreme prejudice, the way we firebombed Tokyo.

It's unsurprising that the criminals at this criminal operation are so incompetent that they've leaked their dangerous weapons to every hacker in the world. When you start off by blatantly violating the Bill of Rights, you're not going to be careful about anything.

Criminals like Mr. Williams should never have been developing malware attack software; it's contrary to the actual job of the NSA and contrary to our security needs. The blame really lies at the top, in the traitors to the United States like Michael Rogers who ordered people like Mr. Williams to commit their crimes. Mr. Rogers, who has forfeited his "Admiral" title by committing treason, needs to be court-martialed and shot dead for giving aid and comfort to the enemies of the US while violating the US constitution.

Worth noting, the greatest "success" of this illegal team was an illegal and counterproductive computer hacking attack on Iran, which merely disgraced the US in the eyes of the world.

Domestic spying activities aside (which I think are shameful, illegal, have no utility or oversight...), I think one of the most sensible approaches I've heard is simply to split NSA up in to two separate organizations. Right now, NSA has tremendous conflict of interest: it helps secure domestic computer infrastructure and software, advises on encryption standards, etc. But it also finds and develops new security exploits and keeps them secret so that it continue to exploit them.

Both of these make sense to me as missions carried out by government security agencies. It just makes no sense to have these two missions advanced by the *same* organization. You cannot improve security with your left hand and develop a bunch of 0-days with your right.

 

[ggr]

I still can't seem to bring myself to hold a single shred of sympathy for them. None of this would've happened if the NSA wasn't stockpiling 0 day exploits for years upon years. The security community called them out on this after the Snowden leaks, and yet here we are years later with what's essentially a sad "told you so" situation.

Actually the security community called them out on this well before the Snowden leaks. See the documents from "Crypto Wars 1", during the Clinton administration. Look up the Bernstein and Karn cases by the EFF regarding export controls and intentional weakening of crypto standards.

Having said that, to @neroden, I'll just mention that the NSA is by design schizophrenic. The small Dr. Jekyll side works very hard to secure communications, but has to fight, and mostly lose, against the hulking Mr. Hyde half. I have some good friends from the Infosec side of the house. These are the people who develop new standards through international competitions, like AES and SHA-3. They don't all belong in jail.

 

[neroden]

Actually the security community called them out on this well before the Snowden leaks. See the documents from "Crypto Wars 1", during the Clinton administration. Look up the Bernstein and Karn cases by the EFF regarding export controls and intentional weakening of crypto standards.

Having said that, to @neroden, I'll just mention that the NSA is by design schizophrenic. The small Dr. Jekyll side works very hard to secure communications,

Yeah, that's fair. I'm just mad about the blatantly criminal, anti-American traitorous operation going on for so long on my taxpayer dollars.

I remember back when the Dr. Jekyll was considered the larger side of the NSA, back in the 1980s... decent people worked for them trying to secure systems. But starting in the 2000s my father started telling math students to stay away from the NSA entirely, as the Mr. Hyde side took over.

but has to fight, and mostly lose, against the hulking Mr. Hyde half. I have some good friends from the Infosec side of the house. These are the people who develop new standards through international competitions, like AES and SHA-3. They don't all belong in jail.

The consensus is that the NSA has repeatedly deliberately weakened cryptosystems before deployment, so that's a bad example; their work is essentially co-opted by the Dr. Hyde side. At some point, when you know you're working for a criminal organization, you choice is to do what Snowden did, or resign in protest, or never take the job in the first place.

The NSA people who submit security patches to Linux, they've been helpful. Now, of course, any security patch from the NSA has to be triple-vetted because it's inherently suspect.