Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3

[1208]

I still think they need a small hatchback for cities and European towns. I wonder how many of them at Tesla and on this forum have driven around the tiny medieval streets in the UK.

Also a cheaper small hatchback could be many peoples second car for the sort trips to the grocery store.

It might also work better for Elon's autonomous taxi plan.

 

[EldestOyster]

Tesla's bus...the one without the aisles...

matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses.

I like how Tesla continues to turn mental models on their head. So now, the phrase "stuck behind a bus" will go away when the bus is capable of Insane-class acceleration (This will be fun for the passengers, too!)

 

[Ludus]

Since the vision guiding the plan is to make transports more sustainable and since cars on average only have a 10% utilisation, I DO think car sharing is central. Over and over it seems investors and others make the mistake of trying to rationalise the vision with shareholder value while Tesla clearly treats shareholders as just one stakeholder among the others. Overall benefit for society comes first and Tesla has already delivered amazingly on that by fast forwarding electric transportation. Shareholders have done very well too and I think they will continue to (I am one of them) but Wall Street will never be Tesla's main focus.

I DO think "car sharing" as in using Mobility Apps with Autonomous vehicles is central. I'm just arguing that the aspect about traditional ownership of the cars isn't. The main reason it isn't important is that the logic of how Mobility App autonomous fleets have to work makes it unimportant at least within the next decade which is what the plan is about.

I don't think this is about a difference in focus. That 10% utilization issue is addressed equally well by replacing ownership or encouraging it. The fact that vertical ownership is immensely profitable just makes Tesla's ambitions about sustainable energy more serious. That's the ONLY hope they have of scaling fast enough to make a difference. Still the logic is about the nature of Mobility Fleets and sales.

Suppose you want to launch a fleet of L4 Tesla's under a Mobility App. This will be the first large deployment.
1. It has to be in a small well defined service area.
2. It has to saturate the area with vehicles so that most customers will immediately be able to get a ride within a few minutes.
3. There is no city in the country that comes even remotely close to having sufficient Tesla owners and there isn't likely to be in the foreseeable future. It requires not just thousands of Tesla owners in a metro area but so many that there are thousands of Tesla's made available to the fleet at all times.
4. Tesla sales are extremely diffuse other than in a few areas of California. They will likely continue to be spread out over the world during the next decade. Mobility App fleets require extreme concentration. They'll roll out like Uber does, market by market but with saturation in each market. They can't work without saturation.

 

[Touring]

This is good news for TSLA owners, but not necessarily for Tesla owners. Seems like Tesla is becoming a energy/transport/car-sharing business. I don't know how attractive it would be to buy a tesla S or X in future when you could get an electric Porsche/BMW/Audi for the same price where you get the feeling you own a high tech luxury item, the same feeling you get from owning a model S and X now. And not just some transportation utility everybody can use like a taxi.

 

[theboom1]

You or I may not do this, but let's remember that people buy vacation homes, fill them with furniture, use the home in the off-season, and then rent the house in-season to total strangers WHO SLEEP IN THEIR BEDS!

They are less likely to damage that than your car because they have to live there.

 

[calisnow]

This is good news for TSLA owners, but not necessarily for Tesla owners. Seems like Tesla is becoming a energy/transport/car-sharing business. I don't know how attractive it would be to buy a tesla S or X in future when you could get an electric Porsche/BMW/Audi for the same price where you get the feeling you own a high tech luxury item, the same feeling you get from owning a model S and X now. And not just some transportation utility everybody can use like a taxi.

Oh - you mean like the BMW 5 series and Merc E classes found all over Europe being used as - taxis?

 

[calisnow]

Dear Elon - you have big plans. I look forward to your future. All I can say is:

 

[FlatSix911]

I'm looking forward to a Tesla pick up truck, and do something like this with it. Park up in the middle of nowhere, deploy the additional solar panels (the whole roof would be covered anyway), and just chill out off grid.

Here are a few interesting design concepts ...
Tesla’s Master Plan Part Deux includes future ‘compact SUV’, ‘a new kind of pickup’ and money saving Uber-like service

 

[aaron0k]

I case you may or may not know, Elon is working on unveiling something this week..

Elon... apologies for ever doubting. So f*ing on target...

 

[Alketi]

Did no one find the part about buses interesting? Particularly this:

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

- Smaller buses
- No center aisle
- Seats where there are current entryways

Wait! How do you get in and out?

That means, the only way to get to your seat is either from above (not likely) or from the side.

From the side means there needs to either be a door per row, or a door spanning multiple rows...

Where have we seen this before? Is Elon dreaming of Tesla buses with falcon wing doors.

 

[Hans Noordsij]

Mooi verhaal met laten we zeggende prikkelende vooruitzichten. Volgend jaar unveiling van de Tesla truck? Zal wel weer wat onrust gaan veroorzaken. En dus nog een kleinere SuV en een Semi? Er zal binnenkort wel wat meer info, al dan niet via Q&A, komen die het beeld wat verder uitwerken.

 

[FlatSix911]

Buses with Falcon doors ... can you say Hubris?

Did no one find the part about buses interesting? Particularly this:
- Smaller buses
- No center aisle
- Seats where there are current entryways
Wait! How do you get in and out?
That means, the only way to get to your seat is either from above (not likely) or from the side.
From the side means there needs to either be a door per row, or a door spanning multiple rows...
Where have we seen this before? Is Elon dreaming of Tesla buses with falcon wing doors.

 

[vdvoorde]

Heldere visie en tegelijkertijd een prima reactie op alle (AP en SolarCity) commotie van de afgelopen weken. Opvallend dat er toch geen model onder de M3 komt. Heb mijn twijfels of de mensheid al aan sharing toe is, maar dat is hoogstwaarschijnlijk te wijten aan mijn eigen limitations op dat gebied.

 

[ErnstT]

ben benieuwd hoe dat uitpakt, een truck van een premium merk. Maar het is Mercedes ook gelukt om de premium status op beiden te hebben. Qua premium gevoel doen de MS taxi's niet veel goed. Een apart taxi-model met eigen laad infra voor in de wereldsteden doet de luchtkwaliteit veel goed. Zou mooi zijn als dat een afgeleide wordt van een Tesla Van.

 

[Johan]

Buses with Falcon doors ... can you say Hubris?

"The world's hardest bus to build"

 

[Hans Noordsij]

Ook benieuwd wat de aandelen gaan doen als de beurzen open gaan. Normaal gesproken interesseer ik me daar niet zo voor maar in dit geval zou het best wel wat kunnen teweeg brengen.

 

[andrerodpt]

But truck stops are mostly (at least Flying J and the other big chains I did a quick search on) owned by oil companies.

Right now they are. But in 10 years time? Who knows?

Remember Fremont was once GM and Toyota factory...

 

[KristofL]

Ik vrees dat er steeds meer beleggers in het Tesla aandeel niet zoals bijvoorbeeld bij Amazon blijven investeren in een toekomstige return. Steeds meer willen nu reeds return zien, maar voor dit master plan is veel geld nodig, en dus winst zal er de komende jaren toch niet echt veel zijn want dit moet allemaal weer geïnvesteerd worden.

Maar goed, als we zien dat in België de CO2 uitstoot met 35% naar beneden moet tegen 2030 dan is de vrachtwagenmarkt volgens mij een miljarden business die te wachten staat op een disruptieve speler. Het is ook een ideale markt voor elektrisch vervoer. Door de verplichte rusttijden kunnen vrachtwagens makkelijk herladen. Het zal alleen een enorme infrastructuur investering vragen om laders voor deze capaciteit te voorzien op de autosnelwegen. Praktisch zal dat ook wel voor uitdagingen zorgen, waar steek je die enorme batterijpak? In de oplegger? Die worden vaak op plaatsen achtergelaten of verwisseld. Op zich ook weer interessant, dat bijvoorbeeld bij een levering de oplegger wordt omgeruild voor een lege met een volle batterij.

 

[Hans Noordsij]

Over timing gesproken. Schandaal in de truck wereld.

 

[22522]

Buses with Falcon doors ... can you say Hubris?

If you build enough of them... eventually it will work.

1. A key to not jamming up traffic is quick entry and exit. Flacon wing doors could support that... if they were hydraulic.
2. Trucks can platoon to reduce drag. And rotate who pulls. If 5 platoon, in the limit, they need 1/5 the battery? Can cargo in a hurry avoid charging stops by drafting across the country - think US Postal? How good is the regen?
3. If Tesla puts model 3s into ride share fleets, do they consume tax credits? Still trying to see Tesla get the full $7,500 tax credit for 375,000 model 3 owners. That is a lot of money in the Tesla economy. $2.8 Billion (please check my math).

Would like to see soft motivations for higher occupancy. A bit of a missed boat here unless... Maybe a bit of course correction?