Struja
“Frost”
It's currently -17 in Toronto. That means today will be a 40% range loss day for me. So, for me the top 3 priorities for any future EV (not just Tesla) is:
1. Range
2. Range
3. Range
1. Range
2. Range
3. Range
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Tesla needs to refresh the Model S, asap.
- Thread starter AMPd
- Start date
Who says Tesla can't do both? The Y and the semi? They are both cannibalizing the M3's motors and batteries. The Y will be on a modified 3 platform. There's half your engineering right there.
The Tesla Semi must be disruptive because Volvo and Freightliner among others are tripping over themselves to get their own EV products or press releases out.
Regarding the S, I expect a new M3 inspired interior, what we cannot see will be a much simplifed wiring harness that Tesla has been working on for production efficiency and lower costs. Exterior, maybe new front and rear caps, but that is it. Changing sheet metal, means changing expensive presses and that's not going to pass any business case.
In addition, the real competitors to the S will be out around 2020 or 2021. Better to release a new gen S then.
Huh? Changing sheet metal is a matter of changing dies. And the dies in those presses get changed to run different parts regularly.
I don't expect major structural changes... things that affect the underlying framework. I do expect some sheet metal visual cues to change. At a minimum the need to make the charge port door larger to accommodate the dual charge ports that you're seeing on the M3 in Europe.
Yeah... well it was -38 this morning in Sudbury. Minus 17 would feel rather balmy at the moment.
The financials say it, there’s a reason 7% of the work force were laid off, at a time when their service and sales departments are under staffed.
There’s a reason Supercharger build out slowed down the last quarter.
The X was bought in 2016. After real world driving for 2 years, range is now my top priority. I’m glad you know everything about my situation, no need to be a complete jackass based on your own idiotic opinions.
And yes the range may or may not change with the switch. Excellent analysis and contributions.
I would expect pretty much everyone to talk about Model S/X interchangeably when discussing generic upgrades like 2170 batteries or interior refresh or other things shared by Model S/X.
It really is too bad the forums are split on TMC the way they are. A lot of this talk is shared between Model S/X. I certainly see @DocZ doing exactly that, lumping Model S/X together for the purposes of refresh discussion. It makes sense to me too.
whitex
Well-Known Member
You implied if S has 2170 batteries you'd be buying one, my question to you is why wait? S100D already has more range than any MX, and since range is your top priority, why wait?
strider
Active Member
There was an article on Electrek I think about the pending interior refresh. My wife and I thought it looked hideous. Plus, we make a 220-mile round trip once or twice a month that is not near an SC and our 2012 P85 couldn't make the trip without charging which added an hour. So we took advantage of the tax credit and picked up a loaner S100D last month. We lamented the loss of our rear-facing MS seats and thought about an X but the range penalty would have made the above trip dicey in the winter. W/ the S100D we've done it twice now in the winter with no problems. AWD and the other features (heated steering wheel and back seats, EAP, etc) were a bonus. I wish they would have just sold us a 100kWh pack upgrade but that still isn't an option.
IMO, what will drive a range upgrade will either be based on when Tesla's current contracts for 18650s are fulfilled and it makes economic sense to use GF 2170s or, if/when a competitor comes out w/ a 300-mile range car. Elon will force a bump whether it makes economic sense or not.
I also believe that the semi was a stupid idea. They know 0 about the market and 0 about the product. They have no idea what truckers want, how to service them, etc. Who cares if Volvo and Freightliner build EV trucks? Yay for the environment. Tesla needs to focus on the passenger car market. At least they know >0 about that.
IMO, what will drive a range upgrade will either be based on when Tesla's current contracts for 18650s are fulfilled and it makes economic sense to use GF 2170s or, if/when a competitor comes out w/ a 300-mile range car. Elon will force a bump whether it makes economic sense or not.
I also believe that the semi was a stupid idea. They know 0 about the market and 0 about the product. They have no idea what truckers want, how to service them, etc. Who cares if Volvo and Freightliner build EV trucks? Yay for the environment. Tesla needs to focus on the passenger car market. At least they know >0 about that.
Because 295 miles vs 335 miles isn’t a big difference and doesn’t meet my needs. Model 3 range of 310 miles is also a negligible difference. If the Model S gets a battery upgrade of 375+ miles then I would buy that.
Not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to understand.
Blu Angel
Member
I totally agree!
My local fortune teller read the tarot cards & saw the lucky number 2170!
Kidding aside, Tesla long term contract with Panasonic to produce & buy the 18650 Li ion batteries ended in 2017.
So, there's no logical reason not to switch to the 2170 batteries
Panasonic to Supply Tesla With 2 Billion Lithium-Ion Battery Cells From 2014 to 2017
The mid cycle enhancement (MCE) is slated for late 2019.
Exclusive first look at Tesla Model S and Model X interior refresh: going spartan like Model 3
The complete refresh with new exterior styling is slated for 2021.
The general consensus is the 2170 batteries are 10-15% more energy efficient !
Tesla’s new 2170 battery cell packs more power
This may be your lucky day.......with a winning Trifecta!
New 2170 Li Ion batteries would certainly give you a 400 ml range
Tesla might have achieved battery energy density and cost breakthroughs
Better AutoPilot (AP3) seems to be imminent!
These Owners Believe Tesla Autopilot 3.0 Is Shipping Early: Video
2021 wholesale exterior refresh!
Tesla hires lead designer behind Volvo’s praised XC40 SUV
Thus, Tesla S owners need not sit on the fence.....hopefully 2170 on their way!
Then, late 2019 y'all get the MCE interior refresh.
Finally, 2021 arrives with a new updated exterior design!
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Nice post my friend. I hope it happens soon. One interesting aspect of this - those who have leased an S/X for 3 years will be looking to upgrade...it would be difficult to get them to lease essentially the same car with minor upgrades. Something big should be coming soon.
If Tesla loses me as a customer that is pretty much the only other car I'd seriously consider (ICE or not).
The Model S is a fantastic shape that hasn't dated, the facelift helped there I think.
I'd happily get a faster model if they made such a thing.
1 - Smaller range (eg, less batteries?).
2 - Therefore less weight (aim to get the P100D well under 2,000kg, perhaps 1,800kg).
3 - High 9 second 1/4 mile.
Compromise max range with faster acceleration, wouldn't worry this city dweller one bit.
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Great list. Given (I assume) better margins on the S than the 3, I’m surprised they don’t do one or more of the “extras” that you list. In particular unlimited supercharging. My guess is people who can afford an S or X can charge at home and thus supercharging wouldn’t cost TESLA too much.
Halloween81
Banned
I wish they would bring back the + suspension option.
That would make the P100D an absolute beast. I had a P85+ loaner and absolutely loved the handling, made my P90D feel like a boat
Actually thought about buying the P85+
I think the main reason for all of these named designers is to work on the interior and perhaps build quality.
The 2020 Roadster has shown the exterior design evolution going forward.
I’d say a new generation of the S and in turn X, possibly with the 2070 cells will have to wait for a few years.
Tesla isn’t exactly swimming in money and the base 3, Model Y, Chinese factory and maybe even the pick up, are more important.
Tesla needs some serious volume in the coming years, to keep being profitable and reduce cost. They are also facing more and more competition. From traditional OEMs, as well as other start ups and the Chinese (I remember when people didn’t want to buy Korean and it was the same with Japanese cars before).
Loosing some of the 100k S and X sales isn’t great, but compared to the potential of the Y, or pickup it’s negligible. So if you have a limited pool of engineers and don’t want to hire more, anyone would focus on those.
In the meantime I guess we might see some small changes, but the overall car will mostly stay the same.
Tesla isn’t exactly swimming in money and the base 3, Model Y, Chinese factory and maybe even the pick up, are more important.
Tesla needs some serious volume in the coming years, to keep being profitable and reduce cost. They are also facing more and more competition. From traditional OEMs, as well as other start ups and the Chinese (I remember when people didn’t want to buy Korean and it was the same with Japanese cars before).
Loosing some of the 100k S and X sales isn’t great, but compared to the potential of the Y, or pickup it’s negligible. So if you have a limited pool of engineers and don’t want to hire more, anyone would focus on those.
In the meantime I guess we might see some small changes, but the overall car will mostly stay the same.
strider
Active Member
I disagree with this. My coworkers (very well paid tech workers) back in Cali are the cheapest SOBs. Even though they can charge at home they go out to lunch every other day near an SC and charge (or complain when the SC is full and then stop by there on their way home) for free.
Free SCing will kill Tesla. Electricity prices will only rise. No ICE company gives away free fuel. Do what everyone else does and give away service or extend the warranty or something else that you have control over. Not electricity.
