Tesla owner configurations begin

[JenniferQ]

Did you email them or did they reach out on their own? Still waiting for details on my order from last week.

I emailed as I also had another question to ask about another product.

 

[bswn1]

I emailed as I also had another question to ask about another product.

I apparently also have a Delivery Specialist assigned but hadn't reached out. Sent an email and she responded saying she'd have more info on Monday. If I get any more solid information will update the thread.

 

[shokunin]

Where are they always getting their numbers? Tesla doesn't release these, and they seem to be the only site making claims to sales totals.

Someone mentioned that they mine registration data to find the monthly sales. Don't know if that's true or not.

 

[C_A_Braun]

and best guess is about 300 or so for December as well considering how few invitations went out and how we've not seen any more in the past 10 days.

The headlines are going to be awful next month when the Chevy Bolt is over 23,000 and the Model 3 is only at 1,000 for the whole year

Not much but a little more than that. This is 2 weeks ago on a hauler in Barstow.

 

[barjohn]

I can't compute how they come up with the estimated delivery window when they had over 200,000 reservations in the first two days. Assuming they can reach 2,000/week by the end of December it would take 100 weeks just to deliver to the first two days of orders. I don't know how many of the 200,000 were orders from CA buyers but 25% is probably not too far off or about 50,000 cars so that is 25 weeks just to meet CA orders. Can someone with better numbers take a swipe at this?

 

[McHoffa]

Not much but a little more than that. This is 2 weeks ago on a hauler in Barstow.View attachment 264102

Well we saw VINs over 1000 in September, so obviously not in order. They're still filling the gaps in the hundreds.

I can't compute how they come up with the estimated delivery window when they had over 200,000 reservations in the first two days. Assuming they can reach 2,000/week by the end of December it would take 100 weeks just to deliver to the first two days of orders. I don't know how many of the 200,000 were orders from CA buyers but 25% is probably not too far off or about 50,000 cars so that is 25 weeks just to meet CA orders. Can someone with better numbers take a swipe at this?

they're doing them in batches (current owners, line waiters, online first day, second day, etc) and those are divided by location (california, west coast, the rest of the country (very few are in the center of the country judging by the Model 3 Tracker Map)

Numbers here are estimates:
About 90k were prior to online ordering. Half were outside the US, so 45k.
Maybe just over half those were actual wait in line store orders, so 25k (side note, there were around 300-500 in line average per store, and there were 90 stores in the US at that time, so that's 27,000-45,000 using that estimate)
Half those are California, so 12.5k.
Over half those want something other than first production configuration, so ~6,000 California orders that want first build and stood in line, or ~12k total in the US that want first build and stood in line.

At 5000 per week, they could fill those in a few weeks.

 

[HankLloydRight]

they're doing them in batches (current owners, line waiters, online first day, second day, etc) and those are divided by location (california, west coast, the rest of the country

I didn't wait in line, but was there any difference between the "line waiters" at a store, and say people who reserved in the store later in the day (no line) or just online elsewhere the same day?

Even at the reveal event, all they had set up were macs with a browser open to the reservation website. Were in-store reservations any different?

My point is, how are they going to separate the "line waiters" from other people who reserved the same day (other than reservation sequence order)?

If everyone used the same website to make their reservations, I'm thinking the only real useful data Tesla has to assign invite order for each reservation is:

• Email address
• Date/Time of Reservation
• Reservation sequence number
• IP address (most likely an internal Tesla intranet IP address for store locations)

From that, using the email address, they can easily match up current MyTesla accounts (existing owners) and their location. They could also match up people (like me) who were at the reveal event, although I think it's just rumors that that counts for something in the invite order, probably doesn't.

From IP address, they can tell who reserved at a Tesla store, or "not at a Tesla store" (home/work, etc). But I'm not sure how they would separate actual "line waiters" from other people who didn't wait in line, but reserved the same day at a store.

Bottom line: With 200k+ reservations the first day (a mix of line waiters, store visits, online, and event), I don't think the invite ordering sequence is going to be as methodical or logical as people are assuming it will be, other than proximity to the factory, previous ownership status, and loosely the reservation order.

 

[Jason S]

Line waiters = same day at a store. Also the reservation sequence number is a very good indicator. At my local service center the line was practically zero by late afternoon, but was well defined starting previous to the opening.
Pretty sure the reservation order is the main thing, with some bumping happening due to friends/family.

 

[K-MTG]

I didn't wait in line, but was there any difference between the "line waiters" at a store, and say people who reserved in the store later in the day (no line) or just online elsewhere the same day?

Even at the reveal event, all they had set up were macs with a browser open to the reservation website. Were in-store reservations any different?

My point is, how are they going to separate the "line waiters" from other people who reserved the same day (other than reservation sequence order)?

If everyone used the same website to make their reservations, I'm thinking the only real useful data Tesla has to assign invite order for each reservation is:

• Email address
• Date/Time of Reservation
• Reservation sequence number
• IP address (most likely an internal Tesla intranet IP address for store locations)

From that, using the email address, they can easily match up current MyTesla accounts (existing owners) and their location. They could also match up people (like me) who were at the reveal event, although I think it's just rumors that that counts for something in the invite order, probably doesn't.

From IP address, they can tell who reserved at a Tesla store, or "not at a Tesla store" (home/work, etc). But I'm not sure how they would separate actual "line waiters" from other people who didn't wait in line, but reserved the same day at a store.

Bottom line: With 200k+ reservations the first day (a mix of line waiters, store visits, online, and event), I don't think the invite ordering sequence is going to be as methodical or logical as people are assuming it will be, other than proximity to the factory, previous ownership status, and loosely the reservation order.

I believe they used a VPN in the stores...the url was something like 3.tesla.com/reserve/store or something like that

 

[HankLloydRight]

3.tesla.com/reserve/store

That's what it was externally too. Maybe not the "store" part.. but they already know which reservations were made in-store due to the intranet.

It was also the first time they used the tesla.com domain name they had recently acquired.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Also the reservation sequence number is a very good indicator.

I don't remember... Did all stores open at the same absolute time, across the country? So a 9am opening time on the east coast was 6am on the west coast? Otherwise, stores that opened earlier would be assigning lower reservation numbers.

My point is that there are a lot of different variables to consider when figuring out the invitation order. I assert it's more of an art than a science.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here's the link
November 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

 

[ForeverFree]

Well we saw VINs over 1000 in September, so obviously not in order. They're still filling the gaps in the hundreds.


they're doing them in batches (current owners, line waiters, online first day, second day, etc) and those are divided by location (california, west coast, the rest of the country (very few are in the center of the country judging by the Model 3 Tracker Map)

Numbers here are estimates:
About 90k were prior to online ordering. Half were outside the US, so 45k.
Maybe just over half those were actual wait in line store orders, so 25k (side note, there were around 300-500 in line average per store, and there were 90 stores in the US at that time, so that's 27,000-45,000 using that estimate)
Half those are California, so 12.5k.
Over half those want something other than first production configuration, so ~6,000 California orders that want first build and stood in line, or ~12k total in the US that want first build and stood in line.

At 5000 per week, they could fill those in a few weeks.

Cut that further based upon the fact that existing owners appear to have been in the minority among line-waiters.

Probably leaves fewer than 2000 Tesla-owning, line-waiting, California, LR-choosing buyers.

 

[zecar]

Good quality wrap job is definitely going to run more than $1500.

I was thinking $3000? Save $1500 on a color and pay $1500.

 

[RubberToe]

I was thinking $3000? Save $1500 on a color and pay $1500.

Last week I was quoted $3,500 for a Model 3 wrap and $1,000 for chrome delete with matte black.

RT

 

[gregincal]

The delivery estimator used to say that your selection will not impact invite date. IE it is non binding. So, I never selected any preference. Hope it is not a factor. There’s another thread with poll of CA resident current owners, and last time I looked it showed only 15% had gotten invites. You are in good company... including me.

Of course the poll includes all California owners with a reservation, regardless of when they reserved. We don't know what percentage of in-store reservation california current owners have gotten the invite.

 

[SpiceWare]

Assuming they can reach 2,000/week by the end of December it would take 100 weeks just to deliver to the first two days of orders.

The ramp-up is not going to stop at 2,000 a week. From here, check the Q1'17 Update Letter and you'll find:

ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.

Based on current info everything's shifted by 3 months, so the 5000 per week could occur by the end of March. We don't have enough info to know if the 10,000/week should still occur in 2018, or be shifted to the start of 2019.

 

[eye.surgeon]

The ramp-up is not going to stop at 2,000 a week. From here, check the Q1'17 Update Letter and you'll find:


Based on current info everything's shifted by 3 months, so the 5000 per week could occur by the end of March. We don't have enough info to know if the 10,000/week should still occur in 2018, or be shifted to the start of 2019.

Personal opinion-- they will never produce 10,000 model 3 /week, ever.

 

[alloverx]

Q. When will 5000/week be produced that are in sale-able condition with minimal quality issues?
Also agree they will never produce 10,000/week (from 1 factory).

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't normally pay attention to these figures so early in the ramp.... But it is interesting that the model 3 outsold the i3, 500e, and the E-golf!