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My gut instinct is that we are burning a lot of unnecessary calories. The flood gates are beginning to open.

The 800 pound gorilla in the room, remains the “EV tax credit”. That answer looms large.

Captain Obvious
I think you may be right on the floodgates.

Once the last glimmer of hope for a 2017 delivery with an assured tax credit goes away, things will calm down somewhat. We will be resigned to either no tax credit or the possibility of one for 2018.

(Even with a quoted 4 week week delivery timeframe of mid-January for those fortunate enough to configure right now, hope springs eternal).
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Even if the Tax Credit stays for 2018, I imagine the $7500 won't last too long before Tesla hits 200K vehicles in the US.

Actually, does anyone know how they calculate that? I'm guessing based on the VIN the IRS will have a way of knowing if it was before or after the 200K threshold.
 
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Even if the Tax Credit stays for 2018, I imagine the $7500 won't last too long before Tesla hits 200K vehicles in the US.

Actually, does anyone know how they calculate that? I'm guessing based on the VIN the IRS will have a way of knowing if it was before or after the 200K threshold.
The way the phase out works, we're potentially talking hundreds of thousands of Tesla customers that would have seen some federal credit who won't if they are eliminated.
 
Even if the Tax Credit stays for 2018, I imagine the $7500 won't last too long before Tesla hits 200K vehicles in the US.
IF THE TAX CREDIT REMAINS, if Tesla hits 200K deliveries on or after Jan, 1, 2018, the full $7500 credit will last on deliveries until Jun 30, 2018. If Tesla hits 200K deliveries on or after Apr 1, 2018, the full $7500 credit will last on deliveries until Sep 30, 2018. There will then be another further 12 months of reduced tax credit in both scenarios.

The 200K threshold is calculated by the government through State registrations. Tesla just reports registrations and related VIN numbers to the Federal government and the Feds take it from there. The owner fills out the required form with VIN to apply for the credit. The Feds cross check your VIN with the records supplied by Tesla to determine if that vehicle qualifies.

InsideEV's has predicted that Tesla will hit 200K deliveries/registrations sometime after Apr 1, 2018. ?Quien sabe?
 
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I've never heard how the customer is supposed to know if he or she qualifies when we get close to the threshold.
This really isn't the thread for this, but the customer doesn't need to worry about crossing a certain number threshold, reaching that number will trigger a date for the phase out. The date will be known at least three months in advance, and there will be ample time for it to be communicated.
 
IF THE TAX CREDIT REMAINS, if Tesla hits 200K deliveries on or after Jan, 1, 2018, the full $7500 credit will last on deliveries until Jun 30, 2018. If Tesla hits 200K deliveries on or after Apr 1, 2018...

There will then be another further 12 months of reduced tax credit in both scenarios...InsideEV's has predicted that Tesla will hit 200K deliveries/registrations sometime after Apr 1, 2018...
If you mean this InsideEVs article it sounds more like Between 1st of January and 1st of April. Was there a newer estimate?
 
If you mean this InsideEVs article it sounds more like Between 1st of January and 1st of April. Was there a newer estimate?
US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

"For Tesla specifically, we estimate they will hit #200,000 in early Q2 of 2018, which will give the automaker from April 1st to September 31st, 2018 to make as many Model S, X and 3s as they can. So, if you are holding a reservation ticket for a Tesla Model 3 and reside in the US, this is likely your sweet spot/deadline for netting the whole $7,500 credit."
 
US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

"For Tesla specifically, we estimate they will hit #200,000 in early Q2 of 2018, which will give the automaker from April 1st to September 31st, 2018 to make as many Model S, X and 3s as they can. So, if you are holding a reservation ticket for a Tesla Model 3 and reside in the US, this is likely your sweet spot/deadline for netting the whole $7,500 credit."

That's not a newer estimate, that's an older article than the one Krash linked to. However, both articles are pretty out of date.