TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Tesla Q1 Earnings Call: Flufferbot, Model Y, and the 'Best-Selling' Model 3

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by TMC Staff, May 2, 2018.

  1. svp6

    svp6 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    731
    Location:
    MN
    [QUOTE="2012MS85, post: 2718326, member: 60197"M3 production was likely around 300 per day (~2k per week). So they'd have needed all 30 days of April to reach over 9k.[/QUOTE]

    Why do you assume 300/day every single day? 2100/week could be produced in 3 days at 700 / day with 4 days closure, or in any other combination of high / low cars per day. My guess is that there is a lot of variability in day-to-day output. If I remember correctly, there was a post on TMC from someone suggesting they had a Hail Mary day with over 700 cars. I am certain they cannot sustain that pace at this time, but I am equally sure that their throughput is not clockwork 300/day.
     
  2. ekestler

    ekestler Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2017
    Messages:
    11
    Location:
    Potomac MD
    Bravo. I concur — and am invested for the long term.
     
  3. dknieriemen

    dknieriemen Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    27
    Location:
    Indiana
    I think this was one of the better sessions. Elon knows what he is doing. I particularly liked the YouTube questions and the honest and informed answers. I look forward to more of these kind of interactions.
     
  4. 2012MS85

    2012MS85 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2017
    Messages:
    401
    Location:
    Blue Grass, IA
    Why do you assume 300/day every single day? 2100/week could be produced in 3 days at 700 / day with 4 days closure, or in any other combination of high / low cars per day. My guess is that there is a lot of variability in day-to-day output. If I remember correctly, there was a post on TMC from someone suggesting they had a Hail Mary day with over 700 cars. I am certain they cannot sustain that pace at this time, but I am equally sure that their throughput is not clockwork 300/day.[/QUOTE]

    Most people aren't good at math, so mentioning the AVERAGE daily production of 300 (2,100 M3s during a record week divided by 7 days of production) is an easy benchmark to think about and remember. But it's also a realistic proxy because vehicle assembly lines don't double in speed one day after a shutdown the day before (just to "catch up"). A production line has a rather constant speed that matches the capability of the robots and humans on said line. So, no, I will bet you my Model 3 reservation that Tesla has NEVER in a single day yet produced 700 Model 3s. That would equate to an annualized run rate of over a Quarter Million Model 3s; we all can only wish Tesla had that surge capability. Please understand that "someone suggesting a Hail Mary" doesn't mean that it happened; that's not reality. I'm a numbers guy and those numbers just aren't real. Bottom line is that Tesla absolutely did NOT manufacture 9,000 Model 3s last month. I wish they had, but wishing doesn't make it true.
     
  5. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,941
    Location:
    TX
    There you go, I fixed it for you. In this case these analysts job is to bring the stock and the company down. So whatever he answers they will spin it negatively.
     
  6. zeshark

    zeshark Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2018
    Messages:
    7
    Location:
    Palo Alto
    Three things stood out for me:
    - the complete improv on gross margins. Ahuja gave 3 different versions in 3 minutes of the GM projections on Model 3. At this level, there should be one story, not three, it should be crisp, it was mushy.
    - the vagueness around the Model Y production plant. Site selection will be Q2. Or maybe Q4. Won't be Fremont for sure. And MP in 24m of a new vehicle while the (new ?) factory site may not be selected before the Q4'18 ? Sounds like a repeat of Model 3 "mass production" vintage August 2017 in the making.
    - full autonomy will be ready end of 2019. just a little CPU swap.Yeah right.

    More than the childish bravado against analysts, it is the lack of clear plans and crispness in their communication that is showing that things are not changing at Tesla. Compare that with the Audi e-tron. Exactly on scope and on schedule vs what was announced in 2015. That's execution.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  7. chetmmd

    chetmmd Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2017
    Messages:
    26
    Location:
    Lancaster
    agree; that is why they have to be engaged and rebutted
     
  8. kbM3

    kbM3 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,792
    Location:
    Orlando
    You’re definitely wrong. Minimum price is $49k. Asp right now is over $55k and going up with dual motor and performance in Q3 and Q4 (depending on SR timing and quantity ).
     
  9. kbM3

    kbM3 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,792
    Location:
    Orlando
    Yes, I’m extremely concerned when Elon target being 5 years ahead of competition and only hits 4.5 years ahead. Slacker!
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  10. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,941
    Location:
    TX
    Disagree. These are analyst version of trolls. They know the answers, but they come there to get something out of Elon to spin up negatively the next day and make sure that article is referenced in 15 other articles for the next one month. And how do you deal with trolls? Snub them and kick them out. Especially the guy who asked about reservation rates, this same question was asked the last quarter, and Elon said the conversion rate is immaterial as many people are waiting for options, AWD and lower range, and some moved to SX.

    This same Antony guy wrote a hit piece a month ago on how 70% of line-waiters (who are apparently hardcore supporters) rejected buying a Tesla, because only 30% have gone ahead with their reservation. He has shown that he can spin things up to drum up lies and exaggerations.

    More than 70% of Tesla’s biggest fans didn’t buy a Model 3 when offered, analyst finds


    Well said..
     
    • Like x 1
  11. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,941
    Location:
    TX
    It is this same lack of plans that:

    - made them build the best car in 2013 (not just best EV, but best sedan in that price segment)
    - made them the largest EV manufacturer
    - made them build the largest battery factory
    - made them build the longest range EV
    - now getting more marketshare than BMW 3 series, Audi and Lexus sedans (in that price segment)
    - have 2000 paid reservations for Semis
    - countless number of reservations for quarter million dollar sports car

    Boy i really wish they maintain the same lack of planning for the next 20 years until some of the dinosaurs are dead.

    But seriously, right now their hands are full to hit 5k/week target rate for M3s. Once they reach that milestone they will announce their plans. For most part I am damn sure they have a good idea of where the factory will be, but with a 80% certainty. But they will announce when they are 100% certain.

    So now the narrative has moved on,

    From: They can't build M3s in volume, they don't know how to manufacture
    To: They have no plans for the next product; they have no money to build Y factory (which is true)

    I consider that as a good sign.
     
  12. svp6

    svp6 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    731
    Location:
    MN
    See here. May be true or not. Sustainability of 700+ a day is something that they plan to reach later in the year. I seriously doubt that ramp-up curve is smooth, more likely lots of peaks and troughs.
     
  13. zeshark

    zeshark Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2018
    Messages:
    7
    Location:
    Palo Alto
    Best sedan, that's highly subjective. And speaking of Model S, is a replacement even on the horizon ?
    Largest EV mfr: no, it's BYD.
    But neither are the point.

    The point is that being the mighty tadpole in a puddle does not get you far enough. EVs are 1% of global automotives sales.
    The question is whether you have a figthing chance if and when EV sales take off.
    Little tadpole is going to find itself swimming after much larger fish

    As seemingly a fan, don't you wish that Tesla would execute ?
    Say what they do, do what they say, deliver in time and in kind ?

    The content and delivery of this analyst call was a joke, bordering on hubris. It is going to hurt them.
     
    • Disagree x 2
  14. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,941
    Location:
    TX
    it is funny that there are FUD reports that claim Model Y is delayed by a year, pushed from 2019 to 2020. Musk was wondering in that conference call on where the 2019 date even came up?

    In fact if you rewind back by two years, 2020 was the date for M3 release and Y was not even in the radar. So for all intents and purposes they have pulled ahead by 3 years. Amazing feat.
     
    • Like x 1
  15. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2015
    Messages:
    2,374
    Location:
    The Western Slope, Colorado
    If the EV market takes off, and Tesla ends up being a niche player in a huge market, they will have succeeded at a primary goal: jump-starting the EV market by showing that an EV can be a compelling replacement for ICE vehicles. My impression is that Tesla didn't expect to be the dominant player in the EV market but, rather, a pioneer in showing that EVs can be attractive, high-performance, and suitable for long range travel via a DCFC network. I'd say that goal has already been accomplished, which is why so many car makers are piling in with "me too" EV models. I view that as a good thing.
     
    • Like x 2

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC