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Tesla Q1 Earnings Call: Flufferbot, Model Y, and the ‘Best-Selling’ Model 3

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Elon Musk said the company’s Q1 letter to shareholders covered just about all he had to say about the company’s progress and instead wanted to devote the bulk of Tuesday’s earning’s call to questions.

At one point he teased those on the call that their questions were too dry, but ultimately covered quite a bit of ground with his answers. Below is a round up of a few notable comments.

Production – Musk said he’s most excited about “rapid increase of output.” He said Model 3 production has achieved a “peak hour” equivalent to a rate of 5,000 cars per week. Musk said “if you can achieve it even once,” a focus on refinement will help you eventually sustain the rate. Tesla has been able to achieve this by simplifying the production line and studying what tasks deserve automation and what tasks don’t.

Musk said the company was previously automating “silly things.”

“We had these fiberglass mats on the top of the battery pack,” Musk said. “They’re basically fluff. So we tried to automate the placement and bonding of fluff to the top of the battery pack. Which is ridiculous.”

Human hands are “way better at doing that,” he said, and the “flufferbot” was decommissioned.

Best-Seller – Despite production woes, Tesla is still on the cusp of becoming the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan in the U.S., Musk said. He expects Model 3 to have 30-40 percent share by the end of the year, stealing sales from cars like the BMW 3 Series.

Profitability – Musk is “confident” the company will be cash flow positive in Q3. To achieve the goal, Tesla will begin a restructure this month to shed expenses. Most of the reductions will impact third-party contractors. “We’ve got barnacles on barnacles,” Musk said. 

Funding – Musk said Tesla will not raise new equity capital. “I specifically don’t want to,” he said.

Model Y – Investment in the Model Y program will only become significant in 2019. While a clear timeline for production hasn’t been given, Musk said the car won’t hit roads for at least two years. He said the production location has not been decided, but to expect an announcement by end of year.

Musk also made a bold prediction for the upcoming all-electric crossover, particularly given the stress the company’s newest model has caused the company. “I think Model Y is going to be a manufacturing revolution,” he said without offering more specifics.

Tesla Semi – Musk responded to those who challenge the truck’s specs announced at the unveiling by saying the Semi’s range will be even better. Tesla previously said its electric semi truck can travel up to 500 miles with a 80,000-lb load, but Musk was willing to bump the expected range to 600 miles.

Musk said sales are “opportunistic,” as many fleet operators are coming directly to Tesla with inquiries.

Self-Driving – Tesla’s self-driving efforts have had a rough go recently, including a federal investigation into a fatal crash that occurred while Autopilot was engaged, as well as team departures. Jim Keller, Tesla’s VP for Autopilot Hardware, left the company last week for an engineering position at Intel. Musk said there is no plan to replace Keller. The company’s efforts for full autonomy, including the development of its own chip designed specifically for artificial intelligence applications, will be managed by Pete Bannon and Andrej Karpathy, Tesla’s director of AI and Autopilot vision.

Speaking on the proposed Tesla Network autonomous ride-sharing platform, Musk said the company would be ready from a technical standpoint by the end of next year. However, the rollout of such a service will depend on regulatory approval. “We’re making really good progress on full autonomy,” he said.

Musk said Tesla will soon begin issuing a quarterly safety report on the use of the self-driving feature in cars. “Autopilot is safer, no question,” he said.

You can listen to the full webcast of the call here.

 
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[QUOTE="2012MS85, post: 2718326, member: 60197"M3 production was likely around 300 per day (~2k per week). So they'd have needed all 30 days of April to reach over 9k.[/QUOTE]

Why do you assume 300/day every single day? 2100/week could be produced in 3 days at 700 / day with 4 days closure, or in any other combination of high / low cars per day. My guess is that there is a lot of variability in day-to-day output. If I remember correctly, there was a post on TMC from someone suggesting they had a Hail Mary day with over 700 cars. I am certain they cannot sustain that pace at this time, but I am equally sure that their throughput is not clockwork 300/day.
 
Elon Musk said the company’s Q1 letter to shareholders covered just about all he had to say about the company’s progress and instead wanted to devote the bulk of Tuesday’s earning’s call to questions. At one point he teased those on the call that their questions were too dry, but ultimately covered quite a bit...
[WPURI="https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2018/05/02/tesla-q1-earnings-call-flufferbot-model-y-and-the-best-selling-model-3/"]READ FULL ARTICLE[/WPURI]
I think this was one of the better sessions. Elon knows what he is doing. I particularly liked the YouTube questions and the honest and informed answers. I look forward to more of these kind of interactions.
 
[QUOTE="2012MS85, post: 2718326, member: 60197"M3 production was likely around 300 per day (~2k per week). So they'd have needed all 30 days of April to reach over 9k.

Why do you assume 300/day every single day? 2100/week could be produced in 3 days at 700 / day with 4 days closure, or in any other combination of high / low cars per day. My guess is that there is a lot of variability in day-to-day output. If I remember correctly, there was a post on TMC from someone suggesting they had a Hail Mary day with over 700 cars. I am certain they cannot sustain that pace at this time, but I am equally sure that their throughput is not clockwork 300/day.[/QUOTE]

Most people aren't good at math, so mentioning the AVERAGE daily production of 300 (2,100 M3s during a record week divided by 7 days of production) is an easy benchmark to think about and remember. But it's also a realistic proxy because vehicle assembly lines don't double in speed one day after a shutdown the day before (just to "catch up"). A production line has a rather constant speed that matches the capability of the robots and humans on said line. So, no, I will bet you my Model 3 reservation that Tesla has NEVER in a single day yet produced 700 Model 3s. That would equate to an annualized run rate of over a Quarter Million Model 3s; we all can only wish Tesla had that surge capability. Please understand that "someone suggesting a Hail Mary" doesn't mean that it happened; that's not reality. I'm a numbers guy and those numbers just aren't real. Bottom line is that Tesla absolutely did NOT manufacture 9,000 Model 3s last month. I wish they had, but wishing doesn't make it true.
 
Three things stood out for me:
- the complete improv on gross margins. Ahuja gave 3 different versions in 3 minutes of the GM projections on Model 3. At this level, there should be one story, not three, it should be crisp, it was mushy.
- the vagueness around the Model Y production plant. Site selection will be Q2. Or maybe Q4. Won't be Fremont for sure. And MP in 24m of a new vehicle while the (new ?) factory site may not be selected before the Q4'18 ? Sounds like a repeat of Model 3 "mass production" vintage August 2017 in the making.
- full autonomy will be ready end of 2019. just a little CPU swap.Yeah right.

More than the childish bravado against analysts, it is the lack of clear plans and crispness in their communication that is showing that things are not changing at Tesla. Compare that with the Audi e-tron. Exactly on scope and on schedule vs what was announced in 2015. That's execution.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Electroman
I get what you are saying....however aren't you in the least bit concerned about the constant misses? I am in no way dogging Tesla or anything of the kind, but its about time for some of the predictions to come true without them dangling new predictions/objectives.

Maybe its just me.

Yes, I’m extremely concerned when Elon target being 5 years ahead of competition and only hits 4.5 years ahead. Slacker!
 
agree; that is why they have to be engaged and rebutted

Disagree. These are analyst version of trolls. They know the answers, but they come there to get something out of Elon to spin up negatively the next day and make sure that article is referenced in 15 other articles for the next one month. And how do you deal with trolls? Snub them and kick them out. Especially the guy who asked about reservation rates, this same question was asked the last quarter, and Elon said the conversion rate is immaterial as many people are waiting for options, AWD and lower range, and some moved to SX.

This same Antony guy wrote a hit piece a month ago on how 70% of line-waiters (who are apparently hardcore supporters) rejected buying a Tesla, because only 30% have gone ahead with their reservation. He has shown that he can spin things up to drum up lies and exaggerations.

More than 70% of Tesla’s biggest fans didn’t buy a Model 3 when offered, analyst finds


Yes, I’m extremely concerned when Elon target being 5 years ahead of competition and only hits 4.5 years ahead. Slacker!

Well said..
 
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it is the lack of clear plans and crispness in their communication

It is this same lack of plans that:

- made them build the best car in 2013 (not just best EV, but best sedan in that price segment)
- made them the largest EV manufacturer
- made them build the largest battery factory
- made them build the longest range EV
- now getting more marketshare than BMW 3 series, Audi and Lexus sedans (in that price segment)
- have 2000 paid reservations for Semis
- countless number of reservations for quarter million dollar sports car

Boy i really wish they maintain the same lack of planning for the next 20 years until some of the dinosaurs are dead.

But seriously, right now their hands are full to hit 5k/week target rate for M3s. Once they reach that milestone they will announce their plans. For most part I am damn sure they have a good idea of where the factory will be, but with a 80% certainty. But they will announce when they are 100% certain.

So now the narrative has moved on,

From: They can't build M3s in volume, they don't know how to manufacture
To: They have no plans for the next product; they have no money to build Y factory (which is true)

I consider that as a good sign.
 
Most people aren't good at math, so mentioning the AVERAGE daily production of 300 (2,100 M3s during a record week divided by 7 days of production) is an easy benchmark to think about and remember. But it's also a realistic proxy because vehicle assembly lines don't double in speed one day after a shutdown the day before (just to "catch up"). A production line has a rather constant speed that matches the capability of the robots and humans on said line. So, no, I will bet you my Model 3 reservation that Tesla has NEVER in a single day yet produced 700 Model 3s.

See here. May be true or not. Sustainability of 700+ a day is something that they plan to reach later in the year. I seriously doubt that ramp-up curve is smooth, more likely lots of peaks and troughs.
 
It is this same lack of plans that:

- made them build the best car in 2013 (not just best EV, but best sedan in that price segment)
- made them the largest EV manufacturer
- made them build the largest battery factory
- made them build the longest range EV
- now getting more marketshare than BMW 3 series, Audi and Lexus sedans (in that price segment)
- have 2000 paid reservations for Semis
- countless number of reservations for quarter million dollar sports car

Boy i really wish they maintain the same lack of planning for the next 20 years until some of the dinosaurs are dead.

Best sedan, that's highly subjective. And speaking of Model S, is a replacement even on the horizon ?
Largest EV mfr: no, it's BYD.
But neither are the point.

The point is that being the mighty tadpole in a puddle does not get you far enough. EVs are 1% of global automotives sales.
The question is whether you have a figthing chance if and when EV sales take off.
Little tadpole is going to find itself swimming after much larger fish

As seemingly a fan, don't you wish that Tesla would execute ?
Say what they do, do what they say, deliver in time and in kind ?

The content and delivery of this analyst call was a joke, bordering on hubris. It is going to hurt them.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: EinSV and scaesare
it is funny that there are FUD reports that claim Model Y is delayed by a year, pushed from 2019 to 2020. Musk was wondering in that conference call on where the 2019 date even came up?

In fact if you rewind back by two years, 2020 was the date for M3 release and Y was not even in the radar. So for all intents and purposes they have pulled ahead by 3 years. Amazing feat.
 
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...The point is that being the mighty tadpole in a puddle does not get you far enough. EVs are 1% of global automotives sales.
The question is whether you have a figthing chance if and when EV sales take off.
Little tadpole is going to find itself swimming after much larger fish...
If the EV market takes off, and Tesla ends up being a niche player in a huge market, they will have succeeded at a primary goal: jump-starting the EV market by showing that an EV can be a compelling replacement for ICE vehicles. My impression is that Tesla didn't expect to be the dominant player in the EV market but, rather, a pioneer in showing that EVs can be attractive, high-performance, and suitable for long range travel via a DCFC network. I'd say that goal has already been accomplished, which is why so many car makers are piling in with "me too" EV models. I view that as a good thing.