Tesla Radar Speculation

[ss——]

I don't think extensive retrofitting is very likely.

Significant installation burden.
Any major change presumably needs regulatory approval.
Might require internal camera to be added.
Higher speed busses?
Multiple screen aspect support?

Testing / proving performance across legacy models expensive, difficult to manage, troublesome to maintain etc. And for what benefit to Tesla? Not making a few additional new car sales? (not a benefit) Keeping legacy cars on the road longer (not a benefit to Tesla).

If Tesla have an unavoidable obligation to legacy cars it would almost make sense to offer the few remaining legacy owners a 'too good to refuse' trade in deal on to new car. But only worth doing if the new vehicles actually deliver a relatively finished FSD product.

I largely agree, makes sense, though what do you consider legacy here? 2021 and before? 2022 and before? even 2023 yr models (Y, 3) sold in 2022??

 

[Battpower]

We still run a '91 Lotus Elan and a '94 Rav 4 so my idea of legacy doesn't count for anything!

I think that it is possible that a new sensor suite could make all current models legacy, but with numbers sold, I think it would be hard for Tesla to sideline recent face-lift / refresh models. 2019 pre refresh Model S already treated as pretty much legacy, but cars from before then likely have stronger argument for delivery of all hardware for FSD. However, if Tesla move the FSD goal posts and juggle with product names as they have done in the past (and recent reintroduction of EAP) then they could try and claim FSD has been delivered for that cohort of cars.

I don't think any of us are very safe as far as having a clear path to future proof hardware. As a manufacturer you'd hardly want one of your biggest design constraints for new cars and systems to be maintaining backwards hardware compatability and interoperability.

At the same time, Tesla made pretty clear undertakings and their future credibility must depend quite heavily on how they handle those obligations.

 

[Boza]

I seriously doubt they will voluntarily offer retrofit. They have zero incentive to do so and have a precedent of offering the same thing with different functionality. Most likely, the legacy cars will have a more restricted FSD than the new cars - but still called FSD.

 

[Jjrss]

I seriously doubt they will voluntarily offer retrofit. They have zero incentive to do so and have a precedent of offering the same thing with different functionality. Most likely, the legacy cars will have a more restricted FSD than the new cars - but still called FSD.

Agreed... Apple might give you a new OS on an old phone, but they arent clambering to retrofit new cameras, screens and biometric sensors because someone bought the old model the day before the new model was announced.

I see the recent free 10K super charger miles and $7500 price deduction not as a "making year end numbers" but more as clearing out old stock with a big revamp coming.

If Q1 2023 brings a major HW/safety upgrade to Model Y, the Q4 2022 model is worth a lot less than a $7,500 discount.

 

[Supcom]

I see the recent free 10K super charger miles and $7500 price deduction not as a "making year end numbers" but more as clearing out old stock with a big revamp coming.

I think it has to do more with responding to order delays as consumers were waiting for next year's EV credit before taking delivery. As far as I know, Tesla doesn't maintain any significant 'old stock'.

 

[Boza]

I think it has to do more with responding to order delays as consumers were waiting for next year's EV credit before taking delivery. As far as I know, Tesla doesn't maintain any significant 'old stock'.

It is probably a combination of a new model coming out, the tax credits and anticipated softening in demand because of the all new competitive offerings coming in.

 

[Knightshade]

I seriously doubt they will voluntarily offer retrofit. They have zero incentive to do so and have a precedent of offering the same thing with different functionality. Most likely, the legacy cars will have a more restricted FSD than the new cars - but still called FSD.

They legally owe all FSD buyers prior to March 2019 at minimum L4 self driving (arguably L5)- so if the need more HW upgrades (beyond the ones such buyers have already all gotten for free- HW3 for some, cameras for older cars) they'll be obligated to provide those free as well- or offer some sort of significant compensation like a full refund plus interest.

Post 3/19 buyers they're not technically obligated to provide anything beyond L2 city streets, which exists already in FSDb on HW3 level HW.


But mostly it'll come down to what HW4 really is.

If it's just better cameras in existing locations, plus a new driving computer, and maybe a new (but can be put in same location using existing harness) radar- that's pretty trivial for both cost and labor compared to what those buyers paid for FSD and I'd fully expect Tesla to offer that.

If it's significantly more complex (new cameras in new locations being the most obvious example) then it's much more likely only the pre 3/19 buyers "get" something for their undelivered promise.

 

[Jjrss]

If it's significantly more complex (new cameras in new locations being the most obvious example) then it's much more likely only the pre 3/19 buyers "get" something for their undelivered promise.

A good chance the cars driving around with covers on have front/rear camera(s) to compensate for the USS being removed. Or protrusions for the newer radar that cant work in the same location as the old one

 

[Boza]

FSD, even if you specify the level, is a very ambiguous term. Hence, they can declare victory even if it does not match people’s expectations. That way they can avoid costly retrofits.

For example, technically, they have FSD Level 2 already. It is limited to highways only but nowhere they say that FSD will be without limitations.

 

[Knightshade]

FSD, even if you specify the level, is a very ambiguous term. Hence, they can declare victory even if it does not match people’s expectations. That way they can avoid costly retrofits.

For example, technically, they have FSD Level 2 already. It is limited to highways only but nowhere they say that FSD will be without limitations.

FSDb is L2 in cities as well, and pretty widely available in the US and Canada already.

That aside, as I mention, they very clearly promised at least L4 (arguably L5) to all pre-march-2019 buyers at least.

Post 3/19 they specifically changed the language during the purchase process to not promise any more than L2.

 

[Supcom]

FSDb is L2 in cities as well, and pretty widely available in the US and Canada already.

That aside, as I mention, they very clearly promised at least L4 (arguably L5) to all pre-march-2019 buyers at least.

Post 3/19 they specifically changed the language during the purchase process to not promise any more than L2.

Yes. And I expect that Tesla will release FSDb to all FSD cars to make good on their stating that City Streets FSD was 'Coming Soon'. This does satisfy their obligation for 2019+ FSD cars. I expect them to continue to release updates until they exhaust the improvements they can make with HW3. But I very much doubt they will provide free HW4 upgrades to those cars. Installing new cameras and AP computer, even if there is no new radar or significant wiring mods, would be cost prohibitive in parts, labor and warranty costs for hundreds of thousands of cars.

There is not standard of performance required for anyone not promised L4+ capability.

So, what happens to the pre-2019 cars? Tesla may find it cheaper to refund a portion of the FSD cost for the capability that is lacking. Lawsuits will result, but in the end the argument will be over how much they have to refund to people who did not pay very much (comparatively) for FSD.

 

[Knightshade]

Yes. And I expect that Tesla will release FSDb to all FSD cars to make good on their stating that City Streets FSD was 'Coming Soon'. This does satisfy their obligation for 2019+ FSD cars. I expect them to continue to release updates until they exhaust the improvements they can make with HW3. But I very much doubt they will provide free HW4 upgrades to those cars. Installing new cameras and AP computer, even if there is no new radar or significant wiring mods, would be cost prohibitive in parts, labor and warranty costs for hundreds of thousands of cars.

I don't think you're right on the costs if there's no wiring or mounting mods needed.

You'd be talking WELL under 1k total cost in parts and maybe 2-3 hours labor, for making customers who paid a minimum of $6000, and many 10-15k, happy.

They've already done it once for the HW2.x buyers-both computers for 2.5 owners and cameras for 2.0 owners- and the cost was so tiny as to not even show up in their financials as significant. To-tesla cost of HW4 is likely just a few hundred bucks, and 5MP auto cameras are in the tens of dollars wholesale in bulk.

More importantly, it's likely not "hundreds of thousands of cars" as the take rate for FSD has always been fairly low.... and the bit you're missing is they'd lose out on the $15,000 or more in $ from the VAST majority of HW3 cars that did not buy FSD yet.... because now they never would. But if a retrofit to "real" FSD was part of that 15k or more price (and only costing tesla 10% or less of the price) it'd be a no brainer to offer it to both old and new FSD buyers.


The issue would be if it's NOT as simple as just swapping cams and the driving computer in existing locations.... if you get to a point of needing new wiring, or new body panels for new cam locations, that's a whole other nightmare road they're not going down.

There is not standard of performance required for anyone not promised L4+ capability.

So, what happens to the pre-2019 cars? Tesla may find it cheaper to refund a portion of the FSD cost for the capability that is lacking. Lawsuits will result, but in the end the argument will be over how much they have to refund to people who did not pay very much (comparatively) for FSD.

I suspect they'd need to fully refund, with interest- as they won't have delivered on any portion of the promise at all... (there was nothing in there about L2, it was clearly L4 minimum).

That said-- all THOSE folks paid significantly less for it- and there's not a HUGE number of them either- so even with years of interest it still wouldn't be a material-to-the-companies-books amount of $.

They might also offer them some kind of sweetheart transfer/trade in deal as an option (the refund would have to be offered as well)... offering such an option might mitigate the lawsuits over diminished residual value of the old car at least

 

[Supcom]

They've already done it once for the HW2.x buyers-both computers for 2.5 owners and cameras for 2.0 owners- and the cost was so tiny as to not even show up in their financials as significant. To-tesla cost of HW4 is likely just a few hundred bucks, and 5MP auto cameras are in the tens of dollars wholesale in bulk.

Even if the cost is low, by the time they get all the retrofits done, they'll be talking HW5. I still can't get a service appt to install a CCS-compatible charge module. I doubt that Tesla has been stocking up on HW4 for retrofits.

More importantly, it's likely not "hundreds of thousands of cars" as the take rate for FSD has always been fairly low

Quite possibly true. I don't know what the percentage of subscribers is vs owners. There's at least a couple hundred thousand FSDb cars now, but still be lots of FSD cars that have not requested FSDb. How many bought FSD outright would be the question.

 

[Boza]

Given the current state of their service system, Tesla is hardly in a position for retrofit of the scale you are suggesting. Also, that would be an admission that the boss was wrong - he is never wrong.

 

[Knightshade]

Given the current state of their service system, Tesla is hardly in a position for retrofit of the scale you are suggesting. Also, that would be an admission that the boss was wrong - he is never wrong.

Are you unaware they've literally already done both of these things already with HW2.x->HW3?

For the computer especially it's often done via mobile service.

 

[KArnold]

I fully expect new and improved FSD hardware to be made available for my '17 at no additional charge, as it's been both promised multiple times and paid for.

Which of Elon's many quotes on the topic are unclear? That's what he said. Sure, being from planet Musk we understand beings have no ethical values but he is doing business on earth - words matter here.

 

[Jjrss]

Dont forget, whenever someone sells a car back to Tesla for trade-in, the FSD is turned off, reducing the total number of FSD vehicles in the fleet regardless of how many times FSD has been purchased.

 

[Battpower]

Are you unaware they've literally already done both of these things already with HW2.x->HW3?

For the computer especially it's often done via mobile service.

I don't think there is any doubt that updates could be carried out in future as in the past, but the number of cars involved could be massively bigger than previously.

Also, if there is any major technology update, it's pretty likely wiring harnesses would have to be updated too.

If FSD doesn't go anywhere, it's all academic any way since no one will be bothered about updating.

To get FSD over the line there is quite a lot of justification for fixing / upgrading camera suite too.

If there is a path to a good Full FSD with complete new hardware suite, how could Tesla justify such extensive retro fitting on out of warranty cars especially? Only to end up with a bigger support headache going forwards? And FSD success needs to translate into revenue of some sort, which means large uptake. If it as good as it needs to be, loads of people will want it.

Of course I want to see previous undertakings delivered, but if there is a good solution to be found, I feel it will need several legacy design elements to be reworked (like demist heaters for b-pillar cams and additional forward mounted cams as well as additional sensors - not just VO). The sooner Tesla get all that sorted the better, and messing around trying to fix everything in existing cars would be a pretty big distraction and drain on resources.

I think Tesla are in a really tough spot. It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[Knightshade]

I don't think there is any doubt that updates could be carried out in future as in the past, but the number of cars involved could be massively bigger than previously.

But the $ collected is also massively bigger.

I paid $3000 for FSD. More recent buyers payed 10-15k.

As I mention, HW cost to upgrade to newer tech is likely 1k, tops.

Also, if there is any major technology update, it's pretty likely wiring harnesses would have to be updated too.

Why? Each camera has its own dedicated wire right now, with plenty of bandwidth for a significantly higher res camera.

If there is a path to a good Full FSD with complete new hardware suite, how could Tesla justify such extensive retro fitting on out of warranty cars especially?

Warranty is irrelevant.

If you bought something from Tesla, Tesla owes it to you.

Unless it's cheaper for them to fully refund FSD- and it wouldn't be- upgrading makes complete sense.

(That said, we've already covered that they technically owe something different to 2 different groups so that might come into play- but again that second group paid a lot more $ so still wouldn't be hard to make the math work for them either)

And FSD success needs to translate into revenue of some sort, which means large uptake. If it as good as it needs to be, loads of people will want it.

Which means being able to upgrade the MAJORITY of all cars sold so far that DO NOT HAVE FSD RIGHT NOW would be in Teslas best interests.

Because you'd create a million or two extra possible buyers that way for a tiny fraction of the cost each would then pay to get FSD.

You just made a good argument FOR offering a retrofit to older cars there

 

[Battpower]

You just made a good argument FOR offering a retrofit to older cars there

I hope so!

Of all the concerns, the fact that so far I haven't seen any attempt to fix fogging of b-pillar cams is problem enough.

Wiring harness comment was more about new cam locations up front.

being able to upgrade the MAJORITY of all cars sold so far

Needs a functional, trusted fsd product. Especially if you are aiming for big $$$$ anything.

Warranty is irrelevant.

When techs touch anything there is a risk of causing a (new / unrelated) problem(s). If car is under warranty there is no argument that regardless of (covered) cause of failure, Tesla have to fix - so not a big deal for anyone. If you start changing wholesale chunks of the car (and expensive / core parts at that) I would expect there to be potential extra hassles and argument in the event of certain faults. This depends on how much needs to be swapped out. Outside of warranty, not as straight forward imo. Unless you give warranty on install and any related failures for say 12 month regardless of wty.

If you bought something from Tesla, Tesla owes it to you.

Agree 100%. However, Tesla probably thinks they already delivered me something!