Should I buy a 2021 MY without Radar?

[ev-now]

I have read a lot of opinions here. I have an AP1 MS which I must admit I have been very happy with. Reading the transition from RADAR to Tesla Vision, it seems it's about 50:50 here in terms of people's experience with EAP/FSD getting better or worse.

So here we are in Feb 2023. There's a rumored HD RADAR going to come back. The MY I am looking at has "Radar Hardware: No" but if I believe the posts here, it will have a wiring loom pigtail - so either an old RADAR could be added if they give up and return to using the low res one (which presumably my MS relies on and is very effective), or possibly the HD one if they are smart enough (and the wiring allows) for retro fit.

But today is today - all other things being equal would you buy a MY with only Tesla Vision?

 

[TresLA]

I liken these decisions to buying a new computer: if you really could use it now, then get what is available. If you can wait, it may get better but can always have buyer’s remorse because Tesla keeps changing their cars continually unlike legacy automakers that have predictable refresh cycles.

I would temper my expectations though: AP1 does that one thing well (vehicle following/lane keeping), but it’s limited in capability (I think of it as a great one trick pony). The newer HW3 may not be as smooth at that one trick but it can do oh so much more.

We got a 2018 HW2.5 (radar) that was upgraded to HW3 (still used radar) for free in April 2020 (or more like “included w FSD Capability package purchase”), and joined FSDb program in that first public group (radar was shut off) in Oct 2021, so we’ve gone through many of the major transitions just with that one car. We also got a 2022 (HW3 but no radar hardware) that’s joined the FSDb program as well, so both cars behave pretty much the same now. But there are always little differences we notice for better or worse, like the 2018 turn signal blinds half the view of the side repeater cameras, but the 2022 has the newer repeater camera housing design that prevents that (for what it’s worth FSDb doesn’t seem to care about that light bleed and performs lane changes and turns just as well in our older housing design 2018 as our 2022, but it’s more annoying to my own eyes when seeing that light bleeding into the camera view.)

There are also little things I miss about our 2018 too that our 2022 doesn’t have (I switch frequently because the 2018 has free supercharging and is our roadtripping car but the 2022 is a M3P and much more fun in non-wet road driving), but again these cars keep changing. I’ve heard the design and manufacturing processes are so different between the two Model 3’s that they’re basically completely different cars.

We still have USS in both cars so I’d probably miss those at this time when parking/driving slowly in tight areas (they haven’t yet brought back distance measuring to close objects in the more recent non-USS vehicles), but whatever. Time marchers on and you lose some and win some.

 

[Ctuna]

Mine is on order for delivery within the next month or so.
I don't want to pay 6 dollar's plus a gallon this summer.
The Radar would be nice but I got the order in before they started
raising prices. And I am getting delivery within 2 months not a year.

 

[ev-now]

I liken these decisions to [deleted] We still have USS in both cars so I’d probably miss those at this time when parking/driving slowly in tight areas (they haven’t yet brought back distance measuring to close objects in the more recent non-USS vehicles), but whatever. Time marchers on and you lose some and win some.

I much appreciate your input. you specific experience is very helpful. I bought AP1 knowing it would be eclipsed. I very much expect HW3 will not achieve FSD, but to the degree it can assist with safety, traffic jams (not accurately controlling distance is a concern) and highway driving I am likely to be okay with it. We'll see - going to take a look tomorrow.

 

[TresLA]

I much appreciate your input. you specific experience is very helpful. I bought AP1 knowing it would be eclipsed. I very much expect HW3 will not achieve FSD, but to the degree it can assist with safety, traffic jams (not accurately controlling distance is a concern) and highway driving I am likely to be okay with it. We'll see - going to take a look tomorrow.

Sorry, I wasn’t clear: following cars and controlling distance has never been a problem for us (before/after radar shut off). The change really has been the more sudden speed changes that are unnerving to passengers and nearby drivers like when it accelerates quickly after a turn or the occasional phantom braking when there’s no danger in front that needs sudden braking (it’s really not that frequent for us but we have learned to hover the right foot near the accelerator pedal when driving long roads on AP with no cars in front, just in case). Traffic jams (both light and heavy) has always been when AP shines.

One thing I do miss is radar allowing the car to see cars 2 or 3 cars ahead. I have a dash cam video of when our car brakes suddenly for an unknown reason, then the car ahead impacted the car in front of them! Radar allowed our car to recognize a probable impact between the two cars in front and started braking before I could see it!

Now, the visualization clearly only shows the cars visible. In an environment with a lot of cars around (parked and driving) it’s amazing to see how FSDb can recognize and track all these cars simultaneously. But if the front vehicle is large or otherwise blocking the camera view, the visualization only shows the immediate front car

 

[JulienW]

.....But today is today - all other things being equal would you buy a MY with only Tesla Vision?

I believe the radar been cut off on all Model Y's for a few software updates now and they all use Vision.

 

[Larry Hutchinson]

I voted no just because you already have an MS with AP1. I think I’d wait a few months to see how the potential new hardware shakes out. My MX with radar disabled failed to even allow TACC during a recent dark rainy night, a situation that worked fine before.

I add that the above failure was on sections of the freeway with no streetlights; during sections with lights, it worked fine.

 

[KArnold]

I'm with @Larry Hutchinson . Sure. Things change a lot with Tesla. But major changes happen more slowly. With rumors of both HW4 and new hi-res radar, I'd still wait a couple months yet.

If you have a radar-equipped car today. FSDB turns it off anyway. So I assume you are not interested in that or don't plan to upgrade your software if you want to keep radar as is. The latter can be done for a while but not long. It's inevitable for the near future that radar won't be used.

Hypothetically if either announcement is soon, which I think it is, you could find yourself with the latest/greatest sooner than the rest of the world. Or if you buy now, potentially not being able to do L5 FSD and no upgrade path. That's especially significant if HW3 is not upgradeable (they say it is not) and you want FSD.

Just be aware I have no insight to specifics - I am definitely a non-prophet organization.

 

[Twiglett]

Another voice for the "no, wait" group, unless you have a need to get a Y now.
I have a Model 3 that has radar and switched to vision and I'd say its kind of a wash between the two honestly.
With radar it could follow without being blinded by the sun or weather, however the cross traffic forward collision warnings were truly appalling as was the phantom braking for overhead gantries or bridges. The car would slow down hard for cars that had long gone, most annoying.
With vision, the cross traffic is so much better, but the good old phantom braking is still there, except that now it brakes for a whole bunch of other things that aren't as noticeable as bridges.
Both the radar and USS removal seem more supply chain related rather than actually having better functionality with cameras. Top speed is still not what it was with radar and is borderline unsafe on parts of I10 and I130 here in Texas - speed limit is 80mph and the cameras just don't see far enough ahead for my comfort.

I'm in no rush to replace my Model 3 and cancelled my Y order after seeing the USS get dropped, I'll just will wait to see what happens, but it feels like things will change this year.

 

[iloveplywood]

If cruise control is really important to you I'd wait. If you really need/want a car and cruise control is important to you maybe get another car as a place holder for a few years. I just don't see FSD or even industry competitive adaptive cruise control being possible with the current hardware. I hope I'm wrong as I have a newly purchased model Y, but at this point there's not much question that my Santa Fe's HDA is smoother and less prone to phantom breaking at least on the roads I drive (I had them both and tested them quite a few times).

I hardly use cruise control and just play around with FSD beta(full self driving is not even lose to being possible with the current hardware, imo) -- but if I did rely on them I'd be looking to get a Kia or Hyundai right now. I love driving my Tesla so I hope I'm wrong about all of this (and could be).