Tesla reduces output of Y and 3 in Shanghai

[FastLaneJB]

EVS better, fewer moving parts, scope for longer-lasting cars than overstressed small ICE engines (ecoboost, turbo).

This is the most important aspect in recent comments - "A small decrease in growth rate of EVs". EV growth is happening, but not always and in all places by 70-100+% a year. New markets all the time (Chile this year, Turkey last year). Many of the usual suspects on the Daily Hate comment section seem to misunderstand this as LESS EVs, when it just means EV sales are maybe ONLY 30% higher than last year's.

Diesel was obviously a bad idea to anyone who can think critically, just that the lobbyists could spin it as a good idea via media & paid-for politicians. Tiny bit better for CO2 for long steady driving (not short trips on a cold diesel engine), terrible for NOX and particulates in cities. Lots of maintenance costs (income for dealers).

Limiting the size of the urea tank by cartel-like activity wasn't going to help.

- initially only enough for 1200-1800 miles, later increased, but still limited to 8 litres in USA & 16 litres in Europe (about 16 minutes in).

Their own lawyers told them it was illegal.

So EV sales as a percentage of new cars to private buyers had fallen recently but yes propped up by company sales so it grew overall. I think if the incentives were to vanish on BIK, salary sacrifice and so on that business sales might also drop.

Didn’t know there were limits on the urea tank size. My Disco 5 I had I think would do around 16,000 miles it claimed per tank. I definitely did over 10k miles before I topped it up and it still had a good few thousand more miles to go.

Pain to fill it up but not something you need to do often at least.

 

[gangzoom]

Couldn’t agree more. And with a change in management on the cards it’ll be worse, as they flip flop on ideas and fail to deliver anything.
I’m not suggesting the current lot are any better. The whole lot are inept, self serving morons.

VAT on private school fees is a guarantee. How many parents in private schools own EVs versus state schools?

Why should motoring be cheaper for the rich versus poor?? It's an easy vote winner, please the petrol lobby and demonstrate equality.

Increase BIK for EVs, slap on 20% VAT for EV charging at home, VED already similar......All of a sudden EVs will not seem so attractive to anyone looking at cost per mile.

 

[Irata]

20% VAT on charging at home is impractical. A 32A commando socket could charge a car or power tools, a 13A socket could power a heater or charge a car.

As for other financial "incentives", they were always simply incentives to kick start EV adoption.

There is usually a hype cycle with any technology on the market, we've hit the point where early adopters have done their bit, then there is a lull, followed by the next growth cycle when it becomes affordable/ready for mass market. It was predictable.

It's far from game over, it's only just beginning. This adoption cycle is already far quicker than when cars were first avalable. The first automobile was 1672, took until 1913 before notable growth started but even then it was very early days.

It's a significant shift, we had a generation acustomed to readily available and affordable oil, a market built around the combustion engine, a servicing and sales model involving local dealers, cars designed with a pure hardware bias, etc.

Had we not seen a lull, I would be more concerned as it wouldn't be following the normal cycle.

 

[FastLaneJB]

VAT on private school fees is a guarantee. How many parents in private schools own EVs versus state schools?

Why should motoring be cheaper for the rich versus poor?? It's an easy vote winner, please the petrol lobby and demonstrate equality.

Increase BIK for EVs, slap on 20% VAT for EV charging at home, VED already similar......All of a sudden EVs will not seem so attractive to anyone looking at cost per mile.

They’d maybe do that if it wasn’t also that at least some people care about the climate and the country has a climate target to try to hit. The cost of climate damage will far outweigh all of this which in this country is looking like more and more regular flooding.

 

[winryn]

In the USA, apartment dwellers have EVs as a larger % than those living in houses (Source:

- good watch for personas like "EV haters").

UK - Tesla charges as low as 28pence/kWh depending on how busy. That's cheaper than many general electric tariffs.

USA - high takeup rates in California, Florida & Texas -

As for insurance in UK, with the number of nicked range Rovers & Porsches (especially Macan) - Teslas with PinToDrive become cheaper to insure.

Macans are about to be uninsurable! - Page 10

Macans are about to be uninsurable! - Page 10 New to the Porsche Macan Forums? Introduce yourself here - Porsche Macan Forums

www.macanforums.co.uk

It’s more a changing issue for all other evs ref cost. 80-90p a kw for non Tesla fast chargers definitely doesn’t appeal. £50-£60 for 200 miles is terrible.

Ref insurance, Tesla costs are not driven by theft, they’re driven by part costs, labour costs at certified repairers and availability. People are in hire cars for months waiting for parts. BYD have almost no available parts so cannot be repaired if crashed/damaged.

I want ev’s to succeed and I think Tesla will continue to dominate. Looks like a lot of backtracking with traditional ice manufacturers. All other ev issues aside, monster depreciation, high new costs and high APR are making evs a silly purchase for the average consumer and I can’t see that changing any time soon

 

[ACarneiro]

how many EVs with make it to 20 years old without some major costs for a new traction battery?

That’s the big question, isn’t it?
I think we don’t really know as we haven’t had EVs that long but the data so far seems to indicate that battery longevity is actually better than initially predicted.
And, again, new chemistries will come online eventually so I’m still of the opinion that EVs will become cheaper and even more reliable than they are now.
We’re definitely paying an early adopter’s fee at the moment, but eventually that will go away.
It’s gonna be painful for us, but that’s the price to pay and we’ll just have to suck it up.

 

[ACarneiro]

Solar/Wind/Storage cheaper and most critically faster to bring online than nuclear, phase by phase, bit by bit. The huge delays for political/oil corruption reasons in the UK are a scandal. Energy independence held up for years exposing us to petro-dictators, shipping problems and other bottlenecks.

I agree but intermittency is the whole problem and storage is currently very expensive or also very slow to bring online.
I do strongly believe that a baseline nuclear fleet (especially with Thorium molten salt SMRs around the corner) coupled with larger, more affordable methods of renewable energy storage are the way forward.
In fact, given the choice, I’d go all out on Thorium SMRs as waste heat could also be used in that kind of deployment (and is most available when you need it most) and estimates suggest there’s enough thorium accessible to power us for hundreds, if not thousands, of years.

But I’m just a nobody throwing overly simplistic opinions on a Car forum so who cares?

 

[FastLaneJB]

UK is also a windy country but you wouldn’t know it since wind farms are still a novelty here.

Well the issue is lots of deployments are blocked because some people don’t want them in their line of sight. Same as people might want more houses but will go to great lengths to block it if it’s in their neighbourhood…

 

[UkNorthampton]

I agree but intermittency is the whole problem and storage is currently very expensive or also very slow to bring online.
I do strongly believe that a baseline nuclear fleet (especially with Thorium molten salt SMRs around the corner) coupled with larger, more affordable methods of renewable energy storage are the way forward.
In fact, given the choice, I’d go all out on Thorium SMRs as waste heat could also be used in that kind of deployment (and is most available when you need it most) and estimates suggest there’s enough thorium accessible to power us for hundreds, if not thousands, of years.

But I’m just a nobody throwing overly simplistic opinions on a Car forum so who cares?

Tony Seba - style overprovision of Solar & Wind by 3-5 times average demand plus storage and international interconnects (many more online now, even more planned).

 

[UkNorthampton]

So EV sales as a percentage of new cars to private buyers had fallen recently but yes propped up by company sales so it grew overall. I think if the incentives were to vanish on BIK, salary sacrifice and so on that business sales might also drop.

Didn’t know there were limits on the urea tank size. My Disco 5 I had I think would do around 16,000 miles it claimed per tank. I definitely did over 10k miles before I topped it up and it still had a good few thousand more miles to go.

Pain to fill it up but not something you need to do often at least.

Why "private buyers"?

Minority of sales for years now. Many "private buyers" lease cars - hence won't be classed as "private" - business or fleet sales.

I've heard this "private" narrative a lot recently. Seen it debunked multiple times - but it refuses to die.

The urea limit was a marketing team idea at various German (maybe other) car makers, so that more internal space was available for expensive upgrades such as audio. They then did secret and illegal deals to prevent urea tanks being big enough to do the job.

Engineers are only in charge at a few companies such as Tesla, otherwise marketing is in charge, even the beancounters have to play second-fiddle. Vorsprung durch advertising & bribing journalists.

 

[gangzoom]

It’s gonna be painful for us, but that’s the price to pay and we’ll just have to suck it up.

I think I've got away relatively lightly, Tesla installed a Power wall in the house for free, I've got a set of 22inch wheels in the garage, and 'free' SC certainly has been put to good use. Coming up to 8 years of ownership I've comfortable with what we paid, and where the car has taken us etc.

But I can see why a similar aged diesel Q7 is worth more than our X, soon to out of the battery/motor warranty, we know VAG TDI engines will literally last indefinitely if serviced, once past 150k miles a new traction battery for £10-20k will 100% be needed.

EV adoption was suppose to take off in the last few years, but looking at the figures it's flatlined at sub 20% of new car sales. We've seen how quickly the politicians are keen to drop the green agenda for votes, I'll be amazed of mayor of London gets in again given the unpopularity of the extended ULEZ zone.

I hope it doesn't happen, but it really wouldn't take a lot to cause EV sales to nose dive even before they have become established.....Imagine if Tesla folded and the whole SC network disappeared.....who here would still want to own an EV?

 

[ACarneiro]

Tony Seba - style overprovision of Solar & Wind by 3-5 times average demand plus storage and international interconnects (many more online now, even more planned).

Overprovisioning 3-5 times demand and then all the interconnects seems like a bit of a waste, though?
It’s obviously different ways of approaching the same problem and I guess we’ll never know which is better until one of them actually gets built.

 

[ACarneiro]

once past 150k miles a new traction battery for £10-20k will 100% be needed

Maybe for an older Model X.
My sister’s 2019 Model 3 has just passed the 110.000 mile mark and TeslaFi shows about 9% degradation. I’m about to hit 90k miles on mine with a similar degradation seen.
Granted, I may have just jinxed us and her pack or mine could suffer a catastrophic failure tomorrow but so far the rate of degradation suggests that it’ll last far, far longer than 150k miles.

We are the test rats in the maze

 

[FastLaneJB]

Why "private buyers"?

Minority of sales for years now. Many "private buyers" lease cars - hence won't be classed as "private" - business or fleet sales.

I think regardless of how private buyers finance their vehicle, it's them buying it and not a business or a salary sacrifice lease which is still a business purchase.

Don't think it matters what the percentage is vs fleet here. The point is that when people have to put their own money down without any incentives they are pulling back from EV's, not buying more. Fleets and businesses aren't picking EV's on a level playing field, they are drawn to EV's by all the financial benefits they bring. If that was a level playing field also, would they buy as many EV's? I bet you they wouldn't.

 

[ACarneiro]

I think regardless of how private buyers finance their vehicle, it's them buying it and not a business or a salary sacrifice lease which is still a business purchase.

Don't think it matters what the percentage is vs fleet here. The point is that when people have to put their own money down without any incentives they are pulling back from EV's, not buying more. Fleets and businesses aren't picking EV's on a level playing field, they are drawn to EV's by all the financial benefits they bring. If that was a level playing field also, would they buy as many EV's? I bet you they wouldn't.

I don't know.
I bought my car outright and I most certainly wouldn't go back to ICE unless forced by circumstances.
Mind you, people who buy outright are probably less likely to change car often so I guess have less sway on the market.

 

[rincewind]

I think that with battery technology where it currently is, there may be a natural ceiling to EV adoption. By this, I'm thinking of the roughly 60%+ of people who would find it very difficult/inconvenient to charge at home i.e. those who don't have off street parking. I would not have gone down the EV route if I didn't have the ability to park off road and charge at home.

 

[boombap]

I like to think so, but diesel were seen as the answer not that long ago. Its 10 years now since the S was introduced in the UK, there are more EVs on the road but far more petrol cars still sold.

The number of 20 years old petrol cars I see around is still quite amazing, how many EVs with make it to 20 years old without some major costs for a new traction battery?

I’m not sure diesel was ever really seen as the answer, they were seen as a lower carbon impact vehicle at the time, mainly because of lies and cheating and with the added bonus of being a bit cheaper to run which was the main driver of popularity. Even when that boom was happening you had the first trickle of EVs like the Leaf and hybrids like the Ampera being experimented with, but was too early in the adoption curve and too expensive for mass market.

There are already quite a few 12 year old Model S around holding up well and no reason to think they’ll all suddenly die before their 20th birthday.

 

[boombap]

Pretty sure we don’t have a shortage of wind

We also have a lot of coast we can use for tidal power.

No, our problem is the abundance of NIMBYs preventing us from catching it.

 

[FastLaneJB]

I’m not sure diesel was ever really seen as the answer, they were seen as a lower carbon impact vehicle at the time, mainly because of lies and cheating and with the added bonus of being a bit cheaper to run which was the main driver of popularity. Even when that boom was happening you had the first trickle of EVs like the Leaf and hybrids like the Ampera being experimented with, but was too early in the adoption curve and too expensive for mass market.

There are already quite a few 12 year old Model S around holding up well and no reason to think they’ll all suddenly die before their 20th birthday.

It's a good example though, did people buy they because of that lower carbon impact or they were just cheaper to run than a petrol at least if you did longer journey's? I think it was pretty much all cost related and private buyers plus companies wouldn't have given a rats ass about the CO reduction.

As much as I think most of us don't want the planet to get badly out of shape from global warming, we want to protect our piggy banks more.

 

[boombap]

Is it temporary though? I don’t see it returning any time soon. Look at the cost of Nuclear. The high prices do help the Net Zero journey though. While energy was so cheap the business case to invest in PV or EV infrastructure was reliant on altruistim rather than financial returns - you could get better returns elsewhere. No ultra rapids, no EV transition. We’re yet to see the Rapid Charging Fund do anything either. Spent on consultants and abandoned before it does anything- typical government.

Yes.

Because the current government is toast and the incoming one, in the absence of a miracle to overcome the de-facto two party system or sudden reinvigoration of Tory support, has plans to decarbonise the grid by 2030. Something which we’re already well on the way to doing, making it more than achievable.

The high cost of electricity right now is primarily down to the high cost of the gas we burn to make it. Once we eliminate the gas problem then you also eliminate the cost problem. Given little over 30% of our energy use over the last 12 months was fossil fuel based, with only a handful of days having peaks above 50% gas and the average even in February being around 20%, it’s a very temporary problem.

Even when prices were lower, the incentive to build renewables was there via the LCCC CfD scheme where the supplier/generator gets a guaranteed price per kWh for a fixed period after construction.

Nuclear is pretty irrelevant to us given the available renewables, yes we need to replace the aging reactors for predictable baseload but it’ll never be more than about 30% of the mix and even at insane construction prices the cost amortised over the life of the plant still makes it competitive.

Even at current estimates of our new nuclear stations being most expensive in the world at about £87 per megawatt of generation (only marginally higher than gas was pre-Ukraine war) that’s still only actually about 9p per kWh and about 2/3 the cost of gas generation today which is about £115 per MWh