Tesla Semi

[SwTslaGrl]

I guess this video suggest that the platooning idea really is about saving fuel and emissions, a 10% reduction.

The video did not indicate what price of diesel they were assuming, so I had to look up prices.

Fuel-prices-europe.info - Current Fuel Prices in Europe

Note that many European countries have prices above EUR 1.25/l (USD 5.58/gal) while US is at EUR 0.551/l (USD 2.46/gal).

So one dimension we need to explore will contemplating the market opportunity of Tesla Semi is the local price for diesel. Where the diesel-electric spead in cost per mile is highest, it would stand to reason that electric trucks will deliver the best economics.

For example in the US commercial power is around 9c/kWh, so we get this diesel electric spread of

$0.26/mile= $2.46/gal ÷ 6mpg + $0.09/kWh ÷ 0.6mile/kWh

Another country with say $5.58 and the same commercial power rate would have a spread of $0.78/mile. This would be about three time the spread in the US. Most of the value that the electric semi creates is in this spread.

I think this has important implications for where BEV semi adoption will happen most quickly.

On prices, the Swedish corporate price at the highest non-fixed rate (below 150,000kWh/year) is:

July 2017 $0.038/kWh (0.307SEK/kWh, $1=8SEK)
July 2016 $0.036/kWh
July 2015 $0.012/kWh

From historic corporate prices: Historiska elpriser företag - Vattenfall

This is for wind, hydro and nuclear energy generation, but the prices follows the Nordic market "energy exchange": Nasdaq Commodities

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

So what is the most current schedule for releasing the Semi introduction?

 

[WarpedOne]

28th September

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

28th September

thanks

 

[jhm]

On prices, the Swedish corporate price at the highest non-fixed rate (below 150,000kWh/year) is:

July 2017 $0.038/kWh (0.307SEK/kWh, $1=8SEK)
July 2016 $0.036/kWh
July 2015 $0.012/kWh

From historic corporate prices: Historiska elpriser företag - Vattenfall

This is for wind, hydro and nuclear energy generation, but the prices follows the Nordic market "energy exchange": Nasdaq Commodities

Wow, that's cheap! These are retail prices or wholesale? Does it include the cost of transmission and distribution? Thanks.

Edit. Is Vattenfall the utility? The link is to prices for power that Vattenfall pays. That sounds like wholesale. The cost of transmission and distribution can easily add 4 - 6 c/kWh to the cost of generation.

Even so, with diesel at 13.74 SEK/l and power at 0.307 SEK/kWh (6.50 USD/gal and 0.038 USD/kWh), I get a diesel-electric spread of $1.02/mile or 5.07 SEK/l. The electric mile cost is just $0.0633/mile. Even if the cost of T&D doubled or tripled the retail rate for electricity, we'd still be looking at a spread of $0.9/mile.

Consider that a semi may go about 100k miles in a year, this is a saving of about $90k per year for about 15 years. If there were no other savings on operating cost, a fleet operator with WACC of 8% (20% return on equity, 5% on debt, financed 20% equity and 80% debt), would in theory be willing to pay $770k more for an electric semi than a diesel. Some of that willingness to pay more would apply to charging infrastructure costs, but still this is enormous savings over the status quo.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Wow, that's cheap! These are retail prices or wholesale? Does it include the cost of transmission and distribution? Thanks.

Edit. Is Vattenfall the utility? The link is to prices for power that Vattenfall pays. That sounds like wholesale. The cost of transmission and distribution can easily add 4 - 6 c/kWh to the cost of generation.

Even so, with diesel at 13.74 SEK/l and power at 0.307 SEK/kWh (6.50 USD/gal and 0.038 USD/kWh), I get a diesel-electric spread of $1.02/mile or 5.07 SEK/l. The electric mile cost is just $0.0633/mile. Even if the cost of T&D doubled or tripled the retail rate for electricity, we'd still be looking at a spread of $0.9/mile.

Consider that a semi may go about 100k miles in a year, this is a saving of about $90k per year for about 15 years. If there were no other savings on operating cost, a fleet operator with WACC of 8% (20% return on equity, 5% on debt, financed 20% equity and 80% debt), would in theory be willing to pay $770k more for an electric semi than a diesel. Some of that willingness to pay more would apply to charging infrastructure costs, but still this is enormous savings over the status quo.

The prices are wholesale and without the cost of transmission and distribution. I now think a large users like steelworks or aluminum producers pays closer to the wholesale price. The fixed prices could be lower though. Vattenfall is the utility and owns wind, hydro and nuclear power plants.

Unfortunately there's resistance to BEV from the Swedish EPA, they have worked for around forty years to remove batteries from the environment. A recent comment on EV trucks says batteries are bad, they prefer unrealistic solutions with electricity pick-up from overhead wires or from the road. It now looks like they have capitulated, the webpage says we will not reach the goal of clean air by 2020. The suggestion they have is to remove all cars and make everyone use public transportation (diesel buses mostly). For the many this could add an hour walking time to and from the bus to work. It's unrealistic when it's windy and -25°C outside. They need to change their views. The BEV solution works, we have clean energy and recycling of components. The electric semi could be very attractive to fleet owners like DHL, we need good working examples.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I'm working on a semi drivers license as a pastime. It will be interesting to see how Tesla implements some functions like the "help brakes" in semis. The usual types are connected to the exhaust, compression or the hydraulic retarder in the gearbox. Removing the foot from the gas pedal usually makes the truck roll as long as possible with as little mechanical resistance as possible. This behavior sometimes change depending on the road gradient and payload in newer trucks. I think the implementation could be different from Tesla cars.

 

[jhm]

The prices are wholesale and without the cost of transmission and distribution. I now think a large users like steelworks or aluminum producers pays closer to the wholesale price. The fixed prices could be lower though. Vattenfall is the utility and owns wind, hydro and nuclear power plants.

Unfortunately there's resistance to BEV from the Swedish EPA, they have worked for around forty years to remove batteries from the environment. A recent comment on EV trucks says batteries are bad, they prefer unrealistic solutions with electricity pick-up from overhead wires or from the road. It now looks like they have capitulated, the webpage says we will not reach the goal of clean air by 2020. The suggestion they have is to remove all cars and make everyone use public transportation (diesel buses mostly). For the many this could add an hour walking time to and from the bus to work. It's unrealistic when it's windy and -25°C outside. They need to change their views. The BEV solution works, we have clean energy and recycling of components. The electric semi could be very attractive to fleet owners like DHL, we need good working examples.

Yikes, I hope the EPA comes around on this soon. Even with overhead power line for trucks, batteries extend the capabilities quite alot. It's actually a good way to solve the charging problem.

 

[TNEVol]

Compression brakes in the US are "Jake Brakes". Regen on my MS is very similar. I just got back from Europe, of the hundreds of trucks I saw they were all "cab over" and very nicely appointed with crome and paint. Few were sleepers which indicates a "day cab". US truckers view cab over as jokes and most big rigs have sleepers. Day cabs while usually used for regional ops are also used like pony express for some carriers. It will be interesting to see how Tesla deals with both EU/US and day cab issues.

 

[D-egg-O]

I wouldn't get too excited (or worried) about this, but FYI...

Cummins Inc. on Twitter

 

[jhm]

I wouldn't get too excited (or worried) about this, but FYI...

Cummins Inc. on Twitter

That's a surprise. This article from June 15, 2017 (Cummins: Not So Fast Tesla!) does not let on to the potential for a semi.

It's good to see some competition at least try to step up. I'm not worried at all. The more competition there is, the faster the adoption curve will rise. Looking forward to seeing what Cummins can pull off.

 

[jhm]

Cummins unveils fully electric Urban Hauler Tractor

Class 7 truck

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I wouldn't get too excited (or worried) about this, but FYI...

Cummins Inc. on Twitter

Don't worry.
Be happy.

They _have_ to do this, because electric is already eroding their potential market. It's coming for urban buses and cargo van first and it'll work its way up. Tesla's semi project is just another reason.

 

[jhm]

One tweet claims Cummins day cab will have 100 mile range, but be extensible to 300 miles. Not clear what powers this range extension.

 

[D-egg-O]

One tweet claims Cummins day cab will have 100 mile range, but be extensible to 300 miles. Not clear what powers this range extension.

ISB 4.5 or 6.7. Here's more info.

 

[D-egg-O]

Don't worry.
Be happy.

They _have_ to do this, because electric is already eroding their potential market. It's coming for urban buses and cargo van first and it'll work its way up. Tesla's semi project is just another reason.

I seriously worry they will not respond quick enough. Here's hoping I am wrong.

 

[jhm]

Diesel engine manufacturer Cummins goes electric with new truck ahead of Tesla Semi unveil

The range extenders is diesel.

140kWh battery pack provides 100 mile range for up to 44 tons. As this is intended for urban freight, the implied 1.4kWh/mile efficiency may be based on city driving.

 

[Etna]

On the truck platooning deal, there was a test performed in my neck of the woods and the results are available in a technical report that you can download here: Fuel-economy testing of a three-vehicle truck platooning system - NRC Publications Archive - National Research Council Canada

Long story short, they got between 5.2% to 7.8% fuel reduction but tested only down to 17 meters. The shorter the better of course - even for the first truck.

The list of references provides further reading on other similar studies, real testing and CFD simulations, etc.

 

[Vitold]

Cummins unveils fully electric Urban Hauler Tractor

Class 7 truck

Is there any significance to the fact that Tesla semi is much taller than Cummings be EV Truck prototype?

If it is not taller than is has narrower track width based on proportions.

 

[D-egg-O]

The range extenders is diesel.

From a diesel engine OEM? I am shocked!