Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Y


I have been unable to replicate this with Google trends. Comparing "Tesla model y" and "Ford mustang e" over periods of 7,30,90 days and 1, 5 years for web search, image search, news search and youtube search.

The closest was 90 days image search, but even that was not very close.

All searches are more favorable to Tesla, here is a typical example:
View attachment 500512

Theirs is based on twitter activity.

 

[JusRelax]

SP action like this making me reconsider this buy and hold action I thought might be better since SP was showing steady rise.
Jumping in and out had me miss a couple good run-ups, so I thought I'd try to catch them by holding a bit longer rather than setting a $10 down stop loss and jumping out as soon as a correction hit.

I cant see any news that's causing this, so I am inclined to not respond with a rage sell and assume its normal corrections from the big run up Monday, I hope

Seems macro-related to me, with the usual TSLA multiplier attached

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, patience is a virtue - been waiting all day for this to trigger:

Edit: bought with the proceeds of the calls I sold last week for $18000, which were bought for $500

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hmm. There was another picture of a camouflaged car people were speculating on that was driving behind a model Y and those look very similar. If these were an update to the S or something, why would they be in China?

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/10/29/tesla-model-3-prototype-longer-wheelbase-spotted/#

This wasn't the post I was thinking of. Will have to keep looking. Either way it's odd.

That was a photoshopped image posted on Twitter, then a joke/twit account speculated about it being a 'stretch' version unique to China. It was discussed ad naseum here at TMC.

Please, use some (any) critical thinking skills. Find out FOR YOURSELF how many 10s of millions of dollars a completely new set of stamping dies would cost to produce a 'stretched' version.

Its not in the plan.

 

[ZachF]

American coal consumption records largest drop in history in 2019:

America’s Coal Consumption Entered Free Fall in 2019

 

[ZeApelido]

There are no stretched Model 3s.

First principles.

Just build a massive Instron machine and stretch the Model 3 20%. Problem solved

 

[StealthP3D]

SP action like this making me reconsider this buy and hold action I thought might be better since SP was showing steady rise.

I'm scratching my head at your comment. What "action" are you talking about? This wasn't even a 4% drop today. If you want to run with the big dogs, you have to be comfortable peeing in the tall grass!

Is this your first big rodeo?

 

[ammulder]

For some reason it really hit me yesterday, when I dictated my first text message from the Model 3:

Honda: We notice your infotainment is a bit out of date. For the low, low price of $149, we'll mail you a DVD with new maps for the nav system. It will get there within two weeks and take no longer than two hours of continuously running your car for it to install. Act now! Offer won't last long!

Tesla: We thought we'd start reading your text messages to you and let you dictate your response. Because who wouldn't want to be able to do that? So, as of today... you can.

... the OEMs are so dead...​

 

[Mike Smith]

Not enough attention was paid to this Elon Musk twitter response from Dec. 30:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Sounds like he's going to lay out a long term plan, and I'm guessing it will be quite shocking. With the share price at a high it makes predictions a lot easier for everyone to believe..

 

[Nocturnal]

Annoying anti-tech article on Slate today. I generally like their articles but this one is silly. They ranked the top 30 "most evil" companies. The author doesn't seem to like Tesla etc. so of course Tesla was included because "Tesla has been criticized for using the term “autopilot” to describe its vehicles’ less-than-autonomous driver-assist feature, since drivers may put too much faith in a feature that is not meant to do the work for them (to occasionally fatal results). It also sells that as-yet-nonfunctioning “full self-driving” mode even though the rest of the autonomous vehicle industry now concedes such a thing is years or decades away. "

Space ex is also evil because they are putting satellites into space. Other evil companies include Oracle, Google etc. Yup, right up there with Exxon or defense contractors.

That was a photoshopped image posted on Twitter, and a joke accont speculated about a 'stretch' version unique for China. It was discussed ad naseum here at TMC.

Please, use some (any) critical thinking skills. Find out FOR YOURSELF how many 10s of millions of dollars a completely new set of stamping dies would cost to produce a 'stretched' version.

Its not in the plan.

Don't get me wrong, I thought that the idea of a stretched Model 3 made zero sense for several reasons. I'm just wondering why we would see some vehicles with this type of camo. Of course it could be something as simple as "that's the color of plastic paint wrap that was available when they were moved.

 

[adiggs]

Maybe I'm not understanding but how can s and p be priced in. When it happens a massive amount of stock will need to be purchased so actually have it included. Which would be the thing that actually increases the stock price.

Broadly speaking, there will be two activities affecting the stock price around S&P 500 inclusion.

The first, which is happening to at least a minor degree today (heck - we're talking and acting on it as retail investors), is front running the S&P 500 addition. By retail investors, by actively managed funds, etc..

The second, which will happen according to the rules of S&P 500, is the actual addition to the index which will trigger buying by the actual S&P 500 index funds.


Which leads to an interesting question - what does anybody mean when they say "priced in"? Clearly the effect of the second set of buyers can't be priced in until they buy, and that can't happen until TSLA gets added.

So presumably "priced in" would only be relative to the first set of buyers - that in affect, the universe of potential front runners of the inclusion have bought as much as they'd like for now (the risk / reward of buying specifically in relation to the addition is balanced for potential front runners).

A seemingly obvious question and answer, is suddenly a lot less obvious, at least for me.

 

[trailhound]

It is almost a certainty that some TSLA equity / derivatives have been already purchased because of the increasing likelihood of S&P inclusion. In fact, it is a certainty, because some of my positions are based on that possibility.

I am not saying that S&P inclusion is fully priced in. I am saying that I think some of the stock price rise are the beginnings of that process.

If you disagree with that, then we can agree to disagree unless you can convince me otherwise. On one thing we can agree: every step that moves us closer to the eventuality of S&P inclusion will result in a stock price increase.

Maybe I am just not following the logic here. Index funds don't make money buying or selling stock but make it on their service fees. So they don't care what the price is for a new member so I don't think there will be much front running on stock purchasing. Now that is not saying others won't want to make a play for inclusion. It looks to me that inclusion could pop stock 5%on announcement based on ServiceNow(NOW) recent inclusion.(not that TSLA trades like any other stock) I didn't look to see what short interest they had. I do think being in the S+P may mellow out price moves after a stabilizing period.

ServiceNow's stock jumps on cloud company's addition to the S&P 500

I maybe wrong but I don't think making it in S+P is going to move the stock much. I hope I am proved wrong.
I remember a stock that I traded that went from OTC to Nasdaq listing and every one thought it would rocket on listing.
It was a big yawn event- (so I guess that was priced in)

trailhound

 

[Tim S]

Looks like TSLAQ are gifting us another buying opportunity.

Yup, picked up a few shares at 519. Rage buy.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not enough attention was paid to this Elon Musk twitter response from Dec. 30:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Sounds like he's going to lay out a long term plan, and I'm guessing it will be quite shocking. With the share price at a high it makes predictions a lot easier for everyone to believe..

I "liked" that comment but I don't think it's the new higher share price that gives Musk more credibility. It's actually the other way around. The share price is higher, in part, because Musk has gained more credibility!

 

[AudubonB]

Yaaah. Not bad!

I bided my time to end of day and picked up ____ shares at $517.93. Not quite at the day's low, but as close as makes no difference. First purchases in about 350 days.

 

[adiggs]

...
I'm wondering how it's even possible? Can you have stocks in an index fund that are not part of index yet? Where would they put them?

...

Index funds can't front run their index - they're an index fund.

However actively managed funds which compare their performance to an index - THEY can front run the index. That's where front running by institutions comes from.

 

[woodisgood]

I "liked" that comment but I don't think it's the new higher share price that gives Musk more credibility. It's actually the other way around. The share price is higher because Musk has gained more credibility!

Agree, they hit guidance. He's delivering on his promises and people are starting to understand "Elon time" means slightly delayed, not fantasy. Not to mention sandbagging Y timelines, as obvious as that was to everyone in the know, will also increase credibility.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm scratching my head at your comment. What "action" are you talking about? This wasn't even a 4% drop today. If you want to run with the big dogs, you have to be comfortable peeing in the tall grass!

Is this your first big rodeo?

Worth pointing out that we're $40 up still from Friday's close...

 

[CorneliusXX]

Kolodny's back with an attempt at hit piece, to which the SP reacted not one iota, it's on CNBC, in case anyone wants to read it:

Tesla sales employees petition for higher base pay after commission cuts in 2019
PUBLISHED WED, JAN 15 20202:51 PM EST

Lora Kolodny@LORAKOLODNY

KEY POINTS

• A Tesla sales employee emailed other staffers asking for support in seeking higher base pay after commissions were cut and responsibilities increased in the second half of 2019.
• Several current and former sales employees explained that bonuses and commissions were cut, and roles combined.
• The petition shows how Tesla has pushed some employees to do more with less as the company drives hard to improve margins and reach sustained profitability.

Strikes me that Wall Street should like this kind of thing - cost reduction & control...?

Employees, for the first time ever, bitch about pay.

Stay tuned for more amazing tales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems macro-related to me, with the usual TSLA multiplier attached

Yeah, that wasn't the usual TSLA multipler attached. The usual is 2-3x. Today's final hour was 5.5x vs the NASDAQ-100

Anybody grab some cheap shares courtesy of the Shortzes?

Cheers!