Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Not enough attention was paid to this Elon Musk twitter response from Dec. 30:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Sounds like he's going to lay out a long term plan, and I'm guessing it will be quite shocking. With the share price at a high it makes predictions a lot easier for everyone to believe..
I am looking forward to it.

I think one of the biggest impacts will be that analysts can take the big numbers Elon says and use that to justify price target increases (after adjusting for Elon time), setting up the next leg of this bull run.
 
Since it's after the market close, I'm posting this link that's not directly related to today's share price activity. There is really no fully appropriate thread here in the investor forum, but in the long run this should boost the adoption of electric cars, which could be helpful to the TSLA share price.

Electrek - 2 hours ago: https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/15/i...w-homes-to-be-ready-for-240-volt-ev-charging/
 
Last edited:
For others who is considering doing the same, there will be more opportunities up the road, at 505, 606...4004...
There might even be one at 175 again, who knows.

Not an advice.
Cannot believe this was only 2 weeks ago.

But, attention passengers who missed train 404, train 505 (might be) arriving soon.

Not advice, and I hope this age badly.
 
I'm scratching my head at your comment. What "action" are you talking about? This wasn't even a 4% drop today. If you want to run with the big dogs, you have to be comfortable peeing in the tall grass!
...

Responding to @StealthP3D's comment to @Vines

If the current price action is causing you to question your buy and hold strategy, that suggests to me that you really aren't comfortable or ready for buy and hold. You are instead a day or at least short term trader (in my lexicon, any trade that is influenced by this particular quarter's execution, numbers, results; that's short term). Any trade influenced by daily changes in share price - that's a short term trade.

For buy and hold, what you're looking for are changes in company strategy and/or prospects for the company strategy to succeed. These changes don't happen on a quarterly basis, nor are they influenced by details in the quarterly results. In Tesla's case specifically, a car that isn't delivered this quarter is a car delivered next quarter. Assuming no incentives, the revenue and profit are the same.


I'm personally a buy and hold investor. A few months back when the share price was under $200, I wrote then that I was as concerned about the $1xx share price as I would be by a $4xx share price. I didn't expect to see $4xx or $5xx (I didn't include it in my example), but in both cases they mean the same thing - nothing. I own exactly as many shares of the company now as I did then.

I grant that waking up to a $5xx share price is more fun than a $1xx share price, but nothing has happened in the last few months to change my investment thesis for the company - it continues to be a 10+ year horizon and a belief / expectation that at some point the company will be trading at $5xxx - an order of magnitude from here. Since I've read an investment thesis that prices out to $5x,xxx by 2030, all of the price action the last few months qualifies as noise. Even in the $5,xxx outcome, recent price action is just noise (where recent encompasses the trip down to $1xx, and the current trip to $5xx). If you're short term, such an idea is outlandish.


The big thing here, and we can use Tesla as our example - back in 2013, the shares had been trading in a range in the $20s and $30s. People were getting into the groove, short term trading the swings back and forth. Life was good for short term trading. And then there was a surprise profitable quarter and the share price disconnected from its trading history. It took 6 months(ish) and the shares had established a new trading range - $130-$180. In today's share price dollars, that'll be a move from the $300s to the $1300-1800 range.

Have we experience the same disconnect from the previous trading history? Maybe. Maybe not. I don't know. I know that I expect it to happen sooner or later and I don't want to be scavenging for pennies in front of the steamroller when it happens (besides - I don't have the time or energy to trade short term).

I do know that I personally suck at short term trading (any trading that depends on quarterly results, or shorter term), and I know that if I noticed that stuff, then I'd have sold out of that last run that turned into my first 10 bagger.

And if I noticed that stuff today, then I'm confident that I'd be selling out of my next 10 bagger just in time to avoid it.


I write all that, to maybe help you see what a buy and hold mentality looks like, and what you'll need to wrap your brain around. There are plenty of situations where buy and hold isn't the right approach - I don't know what's right for you, but if you think buy and hold is right for you, then I suggest strategy over deliveries for the focus of your research and study.
 
@Artful Dodger
a few data point, NewJersey, Pennsylvania and Maryland (ya know, PJM)(a goodly part of it)
Trillions of BTU 2010
1-Solar 0.48 <--------
2-Nuclear 1300.00
3-Hydro 39.18
4-Wind 18.14 <---------
6-Natural Gas 482.00
7-Coal 1412.00

8-Biomass 47.40
9-Petroleum 12.30
15-Wasted Energy 2240.00 (ie, electricity made and not used)

Trillions of BTU 2014
1-Solar 8.68 <------

2-Nuclear 1303.00
3-Hydro 40.56
4-Wind 37.32 <---------
6-Natural Gas 684.40
7-Coal 1030.00

8-Biomass 47.90
9-Petroleum 14.20
15-Wasted Energy 2124.00

Energy Flow Charts
Nat gas up, Coal down, Wind UP, Solar way up (from teeny tiny tho)
data is 5 years old
entire US for 2018
Energy_2018_United-States.png

WOW! over 2/3rd's of the energy produced is "REJECTED ENERGY"!! This tells us that batteries could potentially shutdown over half of all the energy production systems and still have enough left to serve existing energy consumption demand (not really, since industrial uses aren't as easy to transition to electricity based consumption).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Broadly speaking, there will be two activities affecting the stock price around S&P 500 inclusion.

The first, which is happening to at least a minor degree today (heck - we're talking and acting on it as retail investors), is front running the S&P 500 addition. By retail investors, by actively managed funds, etc..

The second, which will happen according to the rules of S&P 500, is the actual addition to the index which will trigger buying by the actual S&P 500 index funds.


Which leads to an interesting question - what does anybody mean when they say "priced in"? Clearly the effect of the second set of buyers can't be priced in until they buy, and that can't happen until TSLA gets added.

So presumably "priced in" would only be relative to the first set of buyers - that in affect, the universe of potential front runners of the inclusion have bought as much as they'd like for now (the risk / reward of buying specifically in relation to the addition is balanced for potential front runners).

A seemingly obvious question and answer, is suddenly a lot less obvious, at least for me.

I guess its possible that the large fund operators that run S&P index funds could buy before inclusion is announced in their many other funds, and then transfer these holdings into the index funds, which means the amount of buying forced by an inclusion announcement might be a lot less than anticipated. Note that I am simply speculating here and have zero idea about whether that is common practice or not. Just something to keep in mind perhaps.
 
If Blackrock wants to boost their eco-credibility, all they need to do is recall their TSLA shares and stop lending them to short sellers. That'll leave a mark*.

Cheers!

*Blackrock is the #5 largest Institutional holder of TSLA with 5.731% of the stock.

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Institutional Holdings

Yes, I see Blackrock at #5 and the Saudi PIF at #3.
What I am not seeing is Tencent! I remember a few years back in similar Dec-Jan time frame a big run-up was attributed to them accumulating and they stopped just shy of 5%. But I do not see them on the table.
Did they sell off their shares? Was that contributing to the mid-2019 sub-200 era ?
 
That was a photoshopped image posted on Twitter, and a joke accont speculated about a 'stretch' version unique for China. It was discussed ad naseum here at TMC.

Please, use some (any) critical thinking skills. Find out FOR YOURSELF how many 10s of millions of dollars a completely new set of stamping dies would cost to produce a 'stretched' version.

Its not in the plan.

Firstly, here are the camouflaged cars from today's Wuwa video:

upload_2020-1-15_22-27-12.png

Observations:
  • Since they are parked next to Model 3's they are clearly not Model Y's, as Model Y's are visibly taller.
  • They don't seem to be longer than the regular Model 3's parked next to them.
  • If they are just regular Model 3's, why are they camouflaged?
Secondly, the camouflaged Model 3 photos from a few months ago were not photoshopped to the best of my knowledge, they were taken by "JayinShanghai" in August and were posted in the September-November time frame:

Jay in Shanghai on Twitter

"Tesla Model 3 prototypes with potentially longer wheelbase spotted https://electrek.co/2019/10/29/tesla-model-3-prototype-longer-wheelbase-spotted/ via @FredericLambert"

"I was the one who took the photos back in August, here is another angle."

EIDzu-GUUAIyPnK

BTW., JayinShanghai is meanwhile working for Electrek I believe, his photos were certainly not a photoshop and not a joke.

BTW. #2, while browsing Twitter I also found this much higher resolution full-GF3 render attributed to Tesla China (this was posted back in November as well):

EI8mmDtVAAU-GeC


The "long wheelbase" speculation is I believe just an artifact of lens distortion from a bad smartphone photo:

EDd65doU0AEmoMZ

Someone on Twitter did a comparison of the side photos:

EID86LeX4AcIwb1

Clearly it's just a regular Model 3 - possibly a MIC one, hence the wrap.

My guess is that those camouflaged Model 3's were from the very first trial production of GF3, and maybe the paint shop was not fully up yet so someone had the idea to use a camouflage wrap.

Or maybe first production had out of spec panel gaps and they hid them with the camouflage. If that was the intention it certainly worked! :D
 
Last edited:
Ok, this rally is nuts. Market cap is at $97.0B while VW has a cap of $101.5B. Are we prepared to convince the market that Tesla really worth more than Volkswagen? Is this price level $538/share sustainable. I mean, come on, folks! I'm not selling. But it's like 8:15 in the evening: time for the party to be over! I mean, come on!! People, go home already.

-Grumpy old guy thesis
Ah, the price is back down to $519. Grumpy old guy ready to party like its 1999, but not too late because of that Y2K thing.
 
Last edited:
A Gen 3 Wall Connector hit the shop today. Interesting changes that hint at Tesla's focus for charging (hence the after-hours inclusion in this thread):

  • 48A max charge rate now aligns with current Teslas
  • 18' cable is lighter and probably cleaner-looking while remaining functional for most applications (vs old 25')
  • Now wifi enabled for usage tracking and commissioning
  • The big one: now supports wireless load-sharing across up to sixteen Wall Connectors (vs old 4-unit max, with hard-wired local comms). This will significantly simplify large Destination Charging installs.
  • Wireless diagnostics and firmware updates
Price unchanged at $500.

This is another example of Tesla thinking for the future in ways that others aren't. For $8k in charging hardware, a site can now install 16 charging locations that will utilize a much-reduced electrical load (as many/most spots aren't charging at any given time) efficiently.

The electricians here can chime in to correct me or share their expertise, but I would peg the install cost of a 16-unit setup of this Wall Connector at a fraction of, for example, 8 dual-headed Chargepoint stations. The hardware cost is certainly a small fraction, and my understanding is the electrical load costs would be lower as well since it's more efficiently shared.
 
Kolodny's back with an attempt at hit piece, to which the SP reacted not one iota, it's on CNBC, in case anyone wants to read it:

Tesla sales employees petition for higher base pay after commission cuts in 2019
PUBLISHED WED, JAN 15 20202:51 PM EST

Lora Kolodny@LORAKOLODNY

KEY POINTS

  • A Tesla sales employee emailed other staffers asking for support in seeking higher base pay after commissions were cut and responsibilities increased in the second half of 2019.
  • Several current and former sales employees explained that bonuses and commissions were cut, and roles combined.
  • The petition shows how Tesla has pushed some employees to do more with less as the company drives hard to improve margins and reach sustained profitability.
Strikes me that Wall Street should like this kind of thing - cost reduction & control...?
Fred Lambert has written similar things in the past. And as a consequence, he has lost access to Tesla in spite of the fact that he is a shareholder, Tesla car owner, etc.
My impression is: Turnover of store personal is very high. But their enthusiasm remains the same. Their knowledge is improving. I have spent a couple of hours in a delivery center all employees involved were very enthusiastic about the mission, extremely effective, extremely well worked together as a team even though many were were temporary transfers from other locations and jobs. They were totally committed to providing superb experience to the buyers and they were proud to do it. E.g. Every buyer had a designated delivery specialist. That felt good for the buyers. But when a delivery specialist became too busy with half sentence could pass the work to some less busy fellow specialist who was eager to jump in to help. etc. In conclusion, working at Tesla stores is not a get rich fast scheme but Tesla gets special force performance for what it pays. On the other side their was a lot of paper work mixup, etc. I have not seen a single buyer who was unhappy either with the car or the company. It was a holiday party atmosphere.
Of course Lara Kolodny or Linette Lopez get contacted by disgruntled employees and there are many even in the best organizations. But overall Tesla seems to get better and better performance