Kelvin Yang's source. The article is largely negative (about the HW3 issue and early price change) so it seems very believable.
首批国产特斯拉车主,被“割了韭菜”
'According to the Financial Associated Press, the tender for some important projects of the 1.5 phase of the joint plant of Tesla Shanghai Lingang Super Factory has been closed, and key structures including the steel structure production of the stamping workshop are about to start. The construction period is expected to be only one month. This means that the follow-up project of Tesla Shanghai Super Factory is accelerating.
According to a meeting record from Shengang Securities obtained by Ranjing Finance, on March 1, 2020, Tesla Shanghai factory experts and key investors exchanged conference calls. Experts said that the first phase of the Tesla Shanghai factory was mainly Production of Model 3, with a planned production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, but through technical transformation and outsourcing of some parts and components, processing can continue to increase production capacity. Affected by the epidemic later in the year, the
current production capacity of the first phase of the plant is 2,000 units / week, with single shifts per day and overtime on Saturdays to extend the single shift time without affecting
production capacity; the two shifts in March are expected to reach 3500 units / week ; The entire first half of the production of 50,000 to 60,000.
Experts at Tesla's Shanghai plant said that the capacity of the first phase of the plant will climb greatly from July. It is expected that a pressure test will be conducted at the end of June. Now the entire Tesla Shanghai plant is pushing forward from high-level to ordinary employees. Capacity increase is expected to start in July and can reach a capacity of 5,000 vehicles per week, that is, 20,000 vehicles per month.
In the first and second half of this year, the combined production capacity is expected to be about 170,000 vehicles. Looking at the whole year next year, if the whole year runs at a production capacity of 5,000 vehicles per week, it can reach a production capacity of nearly 250,000 vehicles per year.
In addition, the domestic Model Y is currently in the early stage of fixed-point and is expected to be put into production in October. It was originally planned to be listed before the end of December 2020, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the listing plan was delayed and it is expected to be delayed until January 2021; the Model 3 has a long battery life. The version is under development, and mass production is expected in the second half of the year.
At present, Tesla is gradually completing the localization of the supply chain. According to the meeting records, according to the current number of parts and supporting value of Tesla's domestic production, the domestic production rate has exceeded 30%, and is currently expected to be around 40%; According to outside legends, the middle of the year is 70% and the end of the year is 100%. Tesla's Chinese factory experts said that the actual progress will only be faster than this, and it is expected to exceed 70% by the middle of the year, and it can reach 100% by the end of the year. At present, the company's senior management and procurement department are continuously accelerating the progress of localization.'