Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[K_Dizzle]

I recently picked up the Model 3, the car is fantastic. It drives better than I thought and in some ways much better than my 2013 early adopter Model S. The delivery specialist tells me that the overall sentiment at Tesla top down is much better than before. His bosses are giving him more optimistic signals now that the company is delivering lots of Model 3s. The location where I picked the car up from averages around 100 per day on weekends and less on weekdays. There seems to be much more organization at end of quarter pushes now with more and more internal employees from design centers helping in the last several weeks of the quarter. They would show up and install plates and do whatever they can to help out. I love this company so much I spent close to $200 buying up merchandise like sweaters. God I love the Model 3 and the way it drives, such a fantastic car both inside and out. My only complaint is that the M3 could have used a better design for its tail light.

I can’t wait for the S refresh, please mimic the roadster design and incorporate it in the S. I’m begging for you to take my money Tesla, make it happen!

Post like these emphasize how awesome tesla is. With fans like this you can’t nip the demand, the product is superior and very aspirational

 

[Electroman]

My sentiments too

 

[DaveT]

It's been a terrible week/month/year for all TSLA shareholders. Ugh.

 

[jhm]

An Affirmation

I embrace the uncertainty and turbulence of the present moment.
I value the future which Tesla alone is building.
I look forward to buying more shares at a lower price.

Keep repeating this, and all will be fine.

All the best,
Br James of the Faithful Blind

 

[Electroman]

I recently picked up the Model 3, the car is fantastic. It drives better than I thought and in some ways much better than my 2013 early adopter Model S. The delivery specialist tells me that the overall sentiment at Tesla top down is much better than before. His bosses are giving him more optimistic signals now that the company is delivering lots of Model 3s. The location where I picked the car up from averages around 100 per day on weekends and less on weekdays. There seems to be much more organization at end of quarter pushes now with more and more internal employees from design centers helping in the last several weeks of the quarter. They would show up and install plates and do whatever they can to help out. I love this company so much I spent close to $200 buying up merchandise like sweaters. God I love the Model 3 and the way it drives, such a fantastic car both inside and out. My only complaint is that the M3 could have used a better design for its tail light.

I can’t wait for the S refresh, please mimic the roadster design and incorporate it in the S. I’m begging for you to take my money Tesla, make it happen!

My sentiments too

 

[TMThree]

I bought my 3 a few months ago. Went with a friend to pick his up. Both of my visits had 5 or 6 tables with new customers picking up vehicles. They always seem to be busy with deliveries.

 

[keydiver]

I'm sitting in my wife's Model 3 right now, no car I'd rather be driving. My only misgiving is that my poor Model S sits neglected in the garage way too much. The Model 3 is life-changing, everything an EV should be IMO. Everyone I talk to says their kids are dying to buy one, so I think the future is bright, no matter how far underwater my stock is right now. I will NEVER sell at a loss, so the shorts can play all the games they want and it won't shake me.

 

[KSilver2000]

Makes sense.

This new “feature” limitation is eerily similar to when cell phone carriers started their throttling of LTE speeds. Still completely unlimited, but only on 3G or 2G speeds after a certain amount of data used.

People up in arms with that, but okay with this? Mostly from either Tesla lovers and those without unlimited probably.

 

[JRP3]

Well, I'm glad Elon is still being paid well.

The Highest-Paid C.E.O.s of 2018: A Year So Lucrative, We Had to Redraw Our Chart

Still? Have you seen the stock price lately?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Hopefully they'll adjust the 80% limit thing in the future based on weather and how much range your car has. I.e. Someone in an older S 60 or X 75 in the winter may need more than 80% to reach their next destination... especially if that X is towing something.

However, for the most part, this 80% limit, although bad optically, is doing many drivers a favor as many likely charge to 90/100% and sit at the charger longer versus running lower on SoC to reach their next supercharger when traveling, which makes their trips longer.

I think this could have been better implemented as something that was "limit to the higher of 80% or the calculated % needed to reach the next supercharger on the path to your current navigation destination", perhaps with additional language about helping to save customers money in per-minute regions by reducing the time spent at the lower kWh rates. Some would "cheat" by setting a far destination before charging but it would be a pain to do so as many would likely still not get you over 80% or much so, so I think such "cheating" would be minimized.

 

[Zaxxon]

Weekend OT:

After such a brutal couple of weeks for the stock, and as we enter a holiday weekend (in the US) where traditionally there's a lot of road-tripping, I wanted to cross-post @nwdiver's wonderful GoFundMe thread. He's offering up his PV company's time and energy to try to roll out some L2 charging in Southeastern New Mexico, in the area near Carlsbad Caverns National Park. This is a fantastic area for road-tripping, and simultaneously is terrible for EVs, with no signs of attention from Tesla or others in the near future. Here are the Plugshare and Tesla charging maps for NM:

A few L2 stations strategically placed in the southeastern portion of the state would go a long way toward opening up Carlsbad and the surrounding areas to hassle-free EV travel. I think the benefit-per-dollar ratio is pretty high for this project.

Anyway, mostly OT, but as an owner and investor, I'd like to see this gaping hole in the charging infrastructure closed up. I also think some positivity would be nice right about now. I tossed a few bucks into the pot.

Have a great weekend, everyone. When the market opens again, we'll be three days further from this crappy week/month/6 month period.

 

[bdy0627]

Would be interesting what they consider a better opportunity than Tesla, which obviously they sold way under actual value based on the current products and roadmap and moats.

My wild guess is they decided the risk with TSLA was simply not what they wanted in their funds. By risk, I mean SEC stuff, Elon missteps, and the like. I could easily see how that might cause an institution to say "no thanks." There are plenty of high risk securities with potential for strong growth without those particular risks.

 

[Zaxxon]

I think this could have been better implemented as something that was "limit to the higher of 80% or the calculated % needed to reach the next supercharger on the path to your current navigation destination",

This is how it is implemented.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This new “feature” limitation is eerily similar to when cell phone carriers started their throttling of LTE speeds. Still completely unlimited, but only on 3G or 2G speeds after a certain amount of data used.

People up in arms with that, but okay with this? Mostly from either Tesla lovers and those without unlimited probably.

I... don’t really remember people being up in arms about that? T-Mobile started that trend and did pretty well with it(that coincided with their rise from the doldrums). People got pissed at AT&T for doing it because it wasn’t communicated that they would.

Besides, all this change really does is force people to not waste massive amounts of their own time charging at the top of the battery. The only time this wouldn’t actively help you is if you have unlimited supercharging and are trying to leech off that instead of charging on your own electricity for getting around town.

EDIT: Also, probably worth mentioning: this is absolutely nothing like the cell provider limitation. With that, you’d get to your allowance, typically possible to go through in a matter of minutes, and then be stuck with painfully slow internet for the entire rest of the month. With this, you’re just limited in terms of how much unnecessary and slow charging you can do at a crowded station, before you move on to the next one.

 

[AcesDealt]

I think most people are talking about Q2 results but the drop from 250 I think might have more to do with the uncertainty around China. Good evidence for that is how little the stock benefitted from Elon's email yesterday which mostly answers the Q2 question.

So what's the next step on China from the powers that be? That's my question.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I think most people are talking about Q2 results but the drop from 250 I think might have more to do with the uncertainty around China. Good evidence for that is how little the stock benefitted from Elon's email yesterday which mostly answers the Q2 question.

So what's the next step on China from the powers that be? That's my question.

That would seem remarkably short sighted... they’re building a factory *in China* that’s looking like it’ll be up and running by the end of the year and would be unaffected by the current situation.

 

[AcesDealt]

That would seem remarkably short sighted... they’re building a factory *in China* that’s looking like it’ll be up and running by the end of the year and would be unaffected by the current situation.

The GF3 isn't a perfect salve for all the China issues and you know it (or should know it). Further, thinking about GF3's impact in 2020 is still longer-term than Q2 thinking.

One nightmare on China I have here is that Trump won't actually give in until the market collapses since he substantially measures his strength in negotiation based on that. A market collapse would be more pain for everyone of course but it is inevitable on the current path if it goes long enough. Personally I don't think I should make a 5th attempt to catch this knife until China is settled down.

 

[capster]

Shared this anthology of recent events elsewhere.

Its looks like a seminal moment in history being caught in a camera flash:

U.S. Plug In Vehicle Sales* Jan 2012 to Present (animation)
Twitter

Tesla Gigafactory 3 Shanghai (drone footage)

Starlink Launch (tweet)
Twitter

Boring Company vehicle race (video)
Twitter

TSLA Short interest vs Stock Price (tweet)
Twitter

Thank you to all who provided this information or contributed to creating the content.

Thank you and hang in there all longs! Go Tesla! Have a great weekend!

 

[kbM3]

Don’t. Buy. On. Margin. All it takes is one day of a market freak out and you’ll get margin called. Buying TSLA won’t help the company or the stock price if you are forced to dump it all because of a margin call.

I believe this is oversimplistic.

I.e. Take 2 investors.

Today, Investor A invests 100% of their net worth in Tesla buying straight shares.
Investor B (following my advice) invests 105% of their net worth in Tesla.

I will bet you that investor B does better than investor A, 5 years from now.

It’s not simply a question of using or not using margin. It’s a question of degree.

 

[dqd88]

I think most people are talking about Q2 results but the drop from 250 I think might have more to do with the uncertainty around China. Good evidence for that is how little the stock benefitted from Elon's email yesterday which mostly answers the Q2 question.

So what's the next step on China from the powers that be? That's my question.

I think it's China, plus the Q1 miss, plus FUD, plus short sellers, and now a generally bearish market. The talk of recession lingers and some probably think the issues around China (perhaps mixed with other global hotspots like Brexit and Iran) could tilt us to recession. And Tesla, being high beta, swings disproportionately. (unfortunately, a perfect storm of downside catalysts). Long term, still optimistic.