Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

I am not buying your anecdote.

All the way back is for 6'7" drivers.

Yeah, a tall passenger can't sit behind 6'7" driver comfortably.

I doubt comfort is that great having a tall guy sit behind a 6'7" driver in a Model 3 either.

I'm 6'2" and I put seat in mode S all the way back when I drive.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Interesting to note that there are deliveries today in Norway, very rare they deliver on a Sunday, but none yesterday.

Implies to me that a boat has just come in and they're expecting a lot of cars.

The Glovis Sunlight arrived at Zeebrugge on Friday, 9/13, 4:10am local time. The ship spent quite a long time at SFO, 3,5 days and hasn't left Belgium yet - so likely a bigger shipment of cars on board.

As per the tracking sheet we have 2 more ROROs headed for Europe. That's anywhere between 6-7k cars if I were to guess.

• The Glovis Courage left SFO on 8/30 and will likely arrive next Friday, 9/19. They will most likely be able to deliver all those cars to customers in time. Capacity is given as 6000 CEU (Car Equivalent Units...an old standard using the historical Toyota Corona as unit of measure at 4x1.5 meters. Model 3 is wider and longer, so capacity is less.)
• The last ship Hoegh Oslo left Philadelphia after 7pm 9/9 and will likely arrive on 9/18 per marinetraffic.com, that is a day before the Courage. While it is named after the Norwegian capital and is under Norwegian flag, the destination is shown as Zeebrugge... but I wouldn't be surprised if it took some cars directly to Norway after that. Capacity is given as 5400 CEU.

We also have 1 more ship bound for Shanghai. The Lydden departed SFO on 9/5 and will arrive on 9/21. Capacity is 7429 CEU, but it is unlikely that's all Teslas. It was only loaded for exactly 24 hours at SFO, so, don't know maybe 1,5k cars?

 

[jerry33]

I'm 6'2" and I put seat in mode S all the way back when I drive.

The seat position depends on whether you have long legs or a long torso, not really the overall height.

 

[pnungesser]

The Glovis Sunlight arrived at Zeebrugge on Friday, 9/13, 4:10am local time. The ship spent quite a long time at SFO, 3,5 days and hasn't left Belgium yet - so likely a bigger shipment of cars on board.

As per the tracking sheet we have 2 more ROROs headed for Europe. That's anywhere between 6-7k cars if I were to guess.

• The Glovis Courage left SFO on 8/30 and will likely arrive next Friday, 9/19. They will most likely be able to deliver all those cars to customers in time. Capacity is given as 6000 CEU (Car Equivalent Units...an old standard using the historical Toyota Corona as unit of measure at 4x1.5 meters. Model 3 is wider and longer, so capacity is less.)
• The last ship Hoegh Oslo left Philadelphia after 7pm 9/9 so will likely arrive on 9/18 per marinetraffic.com, that is 2 days before the Courage. While it is named after the Norwegian capital and is under Norwegian flag, the destination is shown as Zeebrugge... but I wouldn't be surprised if it took some cars directly to Norway after that. Capacity is given as 5400 CEU.

We also have 1 more ship bound for Shanghai. The Lydden departed SFO on 9/5 and will arrive on 9/21. Capacity is 7429 CEU, but it is unlikely that's all Teslas. It was only loaded for exactly 24 hours at SFO, so, don't know maybe 1,5k cars?

G. Sunlight left this morning EDT.

 

[NicoV]

It seems that the wave deliveries to Europe are largely over now, and the boats are coming to Europe in a steady state. 7 ships this quarter versus 5 ships previous quarter. The first ship departing 4 days earlier than previous quarter, the last ship departing 10 days later.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the area with the new foundations:

View attachment 455076​

Looks too small to be Phase II though. Maybe a standalone battery production facility?

Agreed. Artful Dodger on CleanTechnica - 6 days ago:

Well, its not the Model Y factory, its footprint is wrong for that (too small). There is space remaining on the side of the existing Phase 1 that could easily host another building of the same size.

This new shorter building will be on the end of the existing Phase 1, which implies an extention of the modular assembly process.

My impression is that this is the 1st new G-cube**, an assembly plant to build the next generation of battery cells for Tesla, and the 'demo' part of "Battery and Powertrain Investor Day", or the show'n'tell that Elon teased to be held some time in 2020Q1.

With Jeff Dahn's new 6,000 cycle Li-Ion chemistry, and the smaller footprint required for Maxwell cathode (dry process), it makes sense that the battery building wouldn't need to be as big as GF1, which is two-thirds occupied by Panasonic's cell lines (drying ovens and solvent recovery systems).

So, if this is indeed the first of the **Giant, Giant, Giant Machines that Jerome Guillen teased this Spring, then this could be the first of many such 'G-cubes' to spring up at new Tesla factories in China and Europe. Oh, and don't forget the new Pickup factory for the USA, and Semi will need a *sugarton* of batteries too!

Good times!

Cheers!

EDIT2: Here is an image frame from the Sep 12, 2019 video @ 6m01s (image extracted at 4K resolution; then cropped to fit 2000 pix TMC forum limit; Sharpened, Color-corrected; click thumbnail to view in a new window):

 

[Christine69420]

Checked the webcam in Trondheim Harbour and it looks like they are unloading Tesla cars just now.

Live show:

I can see some Teslas parked to the right.

Looking at Marine Traffic it looks like the ship is Autoprestige.

 

[Christine69420]

I can see some Teslas parked to the right.

In june the Tesla cars filled the area to the right of the webcam and spilled out on the pier to the right where lots of green lorries are parked today.

Since the camera does not really show the parking lot it's difficult to estimate the number of cars.

Edit: Rewinded the video to the 4 hours Youtube allows. The lorries and dumper trucks may have been left there earlier by another ship.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Further to the Sep 12, 2019 video from GF3/Shanghai (time: 6m01s), anybody care to speculate as to what this structure is? (the grey concrete linear structure shown spanning the width of this cropped frame from my 4K video source, beginning from below the red truck on the far left of frame)

I have previously (on DISQUS) speculated that Elon might be in Shanghai to inaugurate The Boring Company - China with a project to carry battery cells from the new G-cube to Phase 1. (silly idea; no tunnelling needed with an integrated building plan).

I now suspect this concrete structure may in fact house a conveyor system to transport product from the new building into Phase 1. Will need to back-track in video from 6m01s (when this frame was caputured) to see how far the structure extends along Phase 1, or else look for extended footings if still under construction.

Other ideas?

Cheers!

 

[Skryll]

Diess actually has the same reasoning here as Elon Musk. Volkswagen seems to have come to the conclusion that EV’s are the future, and is actually seriously acting on that vision. That’s good for the world and maybe a bit of redemption for their faults in the past.

Dies got all the Tesla enthusiasts to spread his message that 100km electric driving costs 10 euro in fuel. Pretty sneaky.

100 km is 62 miles so about 15kWh maybe ?

 

[KarenRei]

Further to the Sep 12, 2019 video from GF3/Shanghai (time: 6m01s), anybody care to speculate as to what this structure is? (the grey concrete linear structure shown spanning the width of this cropped frame from my 4K video source, beginning from below the red truck on the far left of frame)

View attachment 455097

I have previously (on DISQUS) speculated that Elon might be in Shanghai to inaugurate The Boring Company - China with a project to carry battery cells from the new G-cube to Phase 1. (silly idea; no tunnelling needed with an integrated building plan).

I now suspect this concrete structure may in fact house a conveyor system to transport product from the new building into Phase 1. Will need to back-track in video from 6m01s (when this frame was caputured) to see how far the structure extends along Phase 1, or else look for extended footings if still under construction.

Other ideas?

Cheers!

Isn't that just a concrete footing?

 

[Krugerrand]

Further to the Sep 12, 2019 video from GF3/Shanghai (time: 6m01s), anybody care to speculate as to what this structure is? (the grey concrete linear structure shown spanning the width of this cropped frame from my 4K video source, beginning from below the red truck on the far left of frame)

View attachment 455097

I have previously (on DISQUS) speculated that Elon might be in Shanghai to inaugurate The Boring Company - China with a project to carry battery cells from the new G-cube to Phase 1. (silly idea; no tunnelling needed with an integrated building plan).

I now suspect this concrete structure may in fact house a conveyor system to transport product from the new building into Phase 1. Will need to back-track in video from 6m01s (when this frame was caputured) to see how far the structure extends along Phase 1, or else look for extended footings if still under construction.

Other ideas?

Cheers!

All I want to know is if they’ve fixed the perimeter fencing. No good reason, I’m just bothered by broken fencing.

 

[mongo]

Further to the Sep 12, 2019 video from GF3/Shanghai (time: 6m01s), anybody care to speculate as to what this structure is? (the grey concrete linear structure shown spanning the width of this cropped frame from my 4K video source, beginning from below the red truck on the far left of frame)

View attachment 455097

I have previously (on DISQUS) speculated that Elon might be in Shanghai to inaugurate The Boring Company - China with a project to carry battery cells from the new G-cube to Phase 1. (silly idea; no tunnelling needed with an integrated building plan).

I now suspect this concrete structure may in fact house a conveyor system to transport product from the new building into Phase 1. Will need to back-track in video from 6m01s (when this frame was caputured) to see how far the structure extends along Phase 1, or else look for extended footings if still under construction.

Other ideas?

Cheers!

If I am looking at the correct thing, it appears to be on the wrong side of the loading docks to deliver anything.
My guess is a utility tunnel for power from the substation to the heating/ cooling plant. The 220kV is reportedly run, but the connection to the factory will not be completed till later this month.

 

[Lessmog]

Checked the webcam in Trondheim Harbour and it looks like they are unloading Tesla cars just now.

Live show:

I can see some Teslas parked to the right.

Looking at Marine Traffic it looks like the ship is Autoprestige.

I saw a bubble of smoke from the ship a few minutes ago, and it seems to be snowing in Trondheim now.
Is the crew just feeling cold or are they preparing to leave shore?

Edit: Sleet fleet?

 

[Christine69420]

I saw a bubble of smoke from the ship a few minutes ago, and it seems to be snowing in Trondheim now.
Is the crew just feeling cold or are they preparing to leave shore?

It's not snow - but it's heavy rain across western Norway today - the tail of hurricane Dorian.

On earlier visits the ships have left pretty quickly after unlossing. And it was 4 pm one hour ago which is when the day shift may have ended for the harbour workers.

They might be waithing for the evening shift to get into action. Or just postponing leaving until the rain slows down/stops.

But if they are leaving - why not close the gate? It's been open for a couple of hours without any disemarking cars. Looks cold to me!

 

[KarenRei]

It's not snow - but it's heavy rain across western Norway today - the tail of hurricane Dorian.

On earlier visits the ships have left pretty quickly after unlossing. And it was 4 pm one hour ago which is when the day shift may have ended for the harbour workers. They might be waithing for the evening shift to get into action. Or just postponing leaving until the rain slows down/stops.

Looks like they're getting the low that hit us yesterday, although it's apparently weakened since then (I've been stuck indoors all weekend :Þ ). It's not exactly "Dorian" (he broke up), although he did dump a bunch of energy and moisture up here that probably helped fuel these subsequent systems.

 

[EVNow]

The Glovis Sunlight arrived at Zeebrugge on Friday, 9/13, 4:10am local time. The ship spent quite a long time at SFO, 3,5 days and hasn't left Belgium yet - so likely a bigger shipment of cars on board.

As per the tracking sheet we have 2 more ROROs headed for Europe. That's anywhere between 6-7k cars if I were to guess.

• The Glovis Courage left SFO on 8/30 and will likely arrive next Friday, 9/19. They will most likely be able to deliver all those cars to customers in time. Capacity is given as 6000 CEU (Car Equivalent Units...an old standard using the historical Toyota Corona as unit of measure at 4x1.5 meters. Model 3 is wider and longer, so capacity is less.)
• The last ship Hoegh Oslo left Philadelphia after 7pm 9/9 and will likely arrive on 9/18 per marinetraffic.com, that is a day before the Courage. While it is named after the Norwegian capital and is under Norwegian flag, the destination is shown as Zeebrugge... but I wouldn't be surprised if it took some cars directly to Norway after that. Capacity is given as 5400 CEU.

We also have 1 more ship bound for Shanghai. The Lydden departed SFO on 9/5 and will arrive on 9/21. Capacity is 7429 CEU, but it is unlikely that's all Teslas. It was only loaded for exactly 24 hours at SFO, so, don't know maybe 1,5k cars?

Couple of things to note.
- Even though Sunlight spent 3.5 days in SFO and Cosmos spent 2.5 days - they were at the dock for the same 3 working days ! Sunlight docked in the evening and left early morning. So, only 3 days in between were the loading days. Cosmos was efficient, docking early in the morning and leaving at night, after 3 loading days.
- Oslo loaded for one working day - but we have no idea how many. At SFO they load about 1k to 1.5k cars per day. How many do they normally load at Philly ? Could be as low as 1k or as high as 3k.

It seems that the wave deliveries to Europe are largely over now, and the boats are coming to Europe in a steady state. 7 ships this quarter versus 5 ships previous quarter. The first ship departing 4 days earlier than previous quarter, the last ship departing 10 days later.

To unwind the wave, Tesla needs to send 3 or 4 ships between now and 10th of Oct to EU. They won't do that - and that creates the wave. I think given the bad Q1 result and so much emphasis by the market on ER, Tesla doesn't have the luxury of unwinding the wave - just yet. The wave in China gets unwound starting Q1 '20 - but EU may have to wait for GF4.​

 

[McMountain]

Further to the Sep 12, 2019 video from GF3/Shanghai (time: 6m01s), anybody care to speculate as to what this structure is? (the grey concrete linear structure shown spanning the width of this cropped frame from my 4K video source, beginning from below the red truck on the far left of frame)

View attachment 455097

I have previously (on DISQUS) speculated that Elon might be in Shanghai to inaugurate The Boring Company - China with a project to carry battery cells from the new G-cube to Phase 1. (silly idea; no tunnelling needed with an integrated building plan).

I now suspect this concrete structure may in fact house a conveyor system to transport product from the new building into Phase 1. Will need to back-track in video from 6m01s (when this frame was caputured) to see how far the structure extends along Phase 1, or else look for extended footings if still under construction.

Other ideas?

Cheers!

Might be nothing more spectacular than a drainage channel for all the surface/rain water collecting on the site and the building at the end of the site might be a pumping station to pump the water out into any public drainage System they have. Might make sense to run such a collector for the length of the site.

 

[Mike Smith]

GM's UAW workers to go on nationwide strike for first time in 12 years - Reuters

 

[Dreadnought]

Dies got all the Tesla enthusiasts to spread his message that 100km electric driving costs 10 euro in fuel. Pretty sneaky.

100 km is 62 miles so about 15kWh maybe ?

Noticed this as well but after an initial WTF moment I realized that his calculation is not based on Tesla efficiency and SC rates but slightly below eTron (25+ kWh/100km) at public DC fast charge (€ 0.49/kWh). His 3x for hydrogen is thus on the optimistic side but that makes it more robust aganst refute. Still, €30/100km is more than enough to make the point that: fuel cost will never be competitive with BEV when based on renewables.
This is a good example of first principles reasoning, reduced to the few metrics that matter. Would take some serious number twisting and fact bending to argue with this.