Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

The Model S has a more elegant look to my eye but I prefer the interior layout and ergonomics of the 3 a lot more. It's shocking how the Model S doesn't really feel any bigger from a human (ergonomic) perspective. I'm taller than average and the 3 just has better ergonomics and visibility. I haven't driven the new Raven version of the Model S yet but the Model 3 drives so superior to the pre-Raven Model S I can hardly believe it myself. The cargo capacity of the Model S is considerably bigger if you are the kind of person who is often hauling bigger items.

I would actually pay more for a Model 3 if I had to compared to a pre-Raven Model S (and I suspect the same might be true of a Raven Model S but since I haven't driven one I can't say for sure). To me the much more nimble driving dynamics, lighter feel and especially the light, airy cabin and better seats of the Model 3 just make it a better car, at least for me.

Spot on, although with the 3 I would say that if you race the car, that damn A-pillar gets in the way on left turns A LOT. Drives me nuts.

 

[Dig deeper]

Glad you value people’s time and insight, let me know if I can do anything else to serve you better.

No offense but "less is more". Your comments on every stock gyration clog the thread.

 

[kbM3]

The Limiting Factor retweeted this which would be even more impressive:

https://twitter.com/_brcooper/status/1306148483498422272?s=21

If my math is correct, that is a 10X volume increase in cell size vs. 2170’s. If Tesla also improves energy density to 300 Wh / kg. That’s only 1/12 the number of cells needed vs. using 2170’s. So a Model 3 LR would reduce down to only 368 cells from 4416, although I don’t think these will go into existing 3/Y models for a long time.

 

[Jack6591]

If anybody hasn't read the book, Internal Combustion, please do. It's a book I go back to over and over when I forget pieces of it and I'm reading the GM chapter again. It talks about how GM took over the electricity rail lines by using front companies, one by one, city by city, to first push gas buses, and then eventually their cars. I forgot what a crooked company GM has always been.

Just placed my order.

 

[Nocturnal]

TSLA down and NKLA up. What a world.

I maintain that the general market doesnt have a grasp on the technical significance of a bigger cell. Hell, if it wasn't for Dave's interview with TLF, I would have no idea still. The public likes easy to digest news, like how cheap battery is going to be or the reveal of Plaid models which is at this stage only hypothetical and will not happen, ever.

Agreed but surely Elon can say something very easy to understand like "this means our packs will be X% lighter, X% cheaper, and X% more dense. That means that once we fully ramp our lines we can sell a Model 3 Performance for 40k and maintain our margin."

 

[UkNorthampton]

Industry Trends | Electric & Hybrid Vehicle Technology Expo
COVID-19 PM2.5

Most here already understand this.... worth repeating

"It turns out the electrification of our transportation system could save lives in addition to saving the planet."

Saving the planet also saves lives ...duh

Eventually we'll get more info about covid and pollution.

My considerations include:-

1. Pollution / particulates can damage lungs - so people have less capacity anyway
2. Covid can travel on particulates
3. Vitamin D helps regulate immune response, helps fight infection, helps messaging and stops body over-reacting (cytokine storm)
4. You get/make vitamin D from sun exposure (UV), very little in foods, taking vitamin tablets, prescription, fortified foods (common in nordics eg Sweden mandates fortification)
5. Vitamin D has a half life of around a month (from memory) - so 6 months of winter and not much left
6. Less pleasant to go outside in pollution - less UV.
7. Pollution cuts down UV - various studies - Iran, Los Angeles
8. Lombardy, Italy had terrible covid. Little vitamin D (winter) and lots of pollution. Every map I look at shows Lombardy with worst pollution in Europe. It may sit in a bowl or little wind.

I found some links/studies - but to keep post short - search for Europe pollution map or visit here - Air pollution hotspots in Europe - map - https://www.ednh.news/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Air-pollution.jpg

On a positive note, imagine a boring company and EV future where no pollution and roads / parking are now used by people walking and cycling. Stinking fossils have to go away, sooner the better. Once people realise, the support from people will come and anyone who stood in the way will be regarded with contempt.

 

[bkp_duke]

The Limiting Factor retweeted this which would be even more impressive:

https://twitter.com/_brcooper/status/1306148483498422272?s=21

If my math is correct, that is a 10X volume increase in cell size vs. 2170’s. If Tesla also improves energy density to 300 Wh / kg. That’s only 1/12 the number of cells needed vs. using 2170’s. So a Model 3 LR would reduce down to only 368 cells from 4416, although I don’t think these will go into existing 3/Y models for a long time.

Has anyone voiced concerns about the new cell size and pack cooling?

With a pack full of these we are seeing all the quotes on decrease in number of cells needed, improved performance, etc. but no one is talking about the ability to cool them due to the decrease in surface area relative to the volume. And pack cooling is dependent upon total surface area of the cells in the pack.

I mention this because, in the past, cooling has hit upper limits (number of times you can launch a P100DL before it goes to limp mode, number of times around a track in a P3D before it reduces power due to heat).


Just curious about everyone's thoughts on that. Otherwise, I'm excited by the advances that come with this.

 

[Big Time]

No offense but "less is more". Your comments on every stock gyration clog the thread.

I will turn this spanking machine around mister.....

This is the run up to one of the biggest catalysts for Tesla, on the stock investment forum. I’m talking about the stocks price, your talking only About how I shouldn’t be talking about it. Who’s clogging up what now?

no offense taken, nice to meet you & good luck.

I’m a concerned person, worried about the bad timing FED announcement.

I’ll just mutter this Over and over under my breath for a while....
“Battery Day
Q3 earnings
S&P“

 

[Dancing Lemur]

If the market could just stay sideways for the next couple of days, I think we could end the week at $480-500. TSLA is still showing good strength, but I don’t know what to make of the macros. The “tech recovery” is stalling.

I’m encouraged to see all the discussion around competition here. Yes, Tesla has technical, brand, and business model advantages and will maintain a lead for the foreseeable, BUT you also see how the company’s challenge is no longer “how do we convince people to buy EVs”, but “how do we convince people to buy OUR EVs over the competitors’”. We’re crossing the point where the inevitability of a primarily electric future is actually sinking into the dinosaur businesses and even the general populace.

A key point of the Mission has been advanced tremendously because there is now an EV market, and not just cars vs Teslas. Humanity may a future, yet...

 

[mongo]

Has anyone voiced concerns about the new cell size and pack cooling?

With a pack full of these we are seeing all the quotes on decrease in number of cells needed, improved performance, etc. but no one is talking about the ability to cool them due to the decrease in surface area relative to the volume. And pack cooling is dependent upon total surface area of the cells in the pack.

I mention this because, in the past, cooling has hit upper limits (number of times you can launch a P100DL before it goes to limp mode, number of times around a track in a P3D before it reduces power due to heat).


Just curious about everyone's thoughts on that. Otherwise, I'm excited by the advances that come with this.

This combines the tabless internal electrodes. All heat goes the short path to the the top or bottom of the can.
That also makes the current path really wide and short, dropping the internal resistance.

I believe the older S/X (induction motors/ non-Raven) hit the motor thermal limit rather than the pack limit on hard launches. Pack has a lot of thermal mass.

 

[dl003]

TSLA down and NKLA up. What a world.


Agreed but surely Elon can say something very easy to understand like "this means our packs will be X% lighter, X% cheaper, and X% more dense. That means that once we fully ramp our lines we can sell a Model 3 Performance for 40k and maintain our margin."

Agree. I was referring to the hype, or lack thereof, on the bigger cell format leaked on Electrek. I think it has minimal impact on the current pre B Day rally, if you can even call it that.

 

[bkp_duke]

This combines the tabless internal electrodes. All heat goes the short path to the the top or bottom of the can.
That also makes the current path really wide and short, dropping the internal resistance.

I believe the older S/X (induction motors/ non-Raven) hit the motor thermal limit rather than the pack limit on hard launches. Pack has a lot of thermal mass.

Thanks for that. It fills in the piece of the puzzle that I was missing.

 

[Stretch2727]

I think it also means they have lowered electrical resistance in the cells and don't need as much cooling as a result. From what I understand, one of the reasons the 2170 and 18650 cells are the size they are is to allow for sufficient cooling. This will lower the complexity of the pack and reduce the cost even further. This could be a result of the tabless electrode.

Agree, much lower cost for the battery management system and likely no separate modules which Elon eluded to earlier.
I keep thinking somehow they are going to eliminate the separate pack and put the batteries/electronics in part of the giant rear casting. This is why the cell's need to be made close to body assembly.

Pure speculation on my part and concerned about the serviceability of this much integration.

 

[bkp_duke]

My assumption is that less heat is generated in the new cells. Alternatively, the coolant is put through at a much lower temperature and/or more surface area comes in contact with the coolant.

I've had both a pack and a module apart from a Model S. There would be no way to get "more contact" with the individual cells that what Tesla already does.

More thermal transfer efficiency, however, as @mongo pointed out could easily compensate for the drop in total surface area.

 

[UkNorthampton]

They can't develop the tech to implement OTA updates...imagine selling 100,000 ID3's and having to update the software manually?

"Hi...i need to schedule a software update please?"
"Sure...we can fit you in in about 8 months"

It's VW's architecture - lots of ECUs from multiple suppliers and a weak central computer and limited comms speed vs Tesla concentrating the computing and code. Until legacy switch - they are far behind.

 

[ZsoZso]

I believe the older S/X (induction motors/ non-Raven) hit the motor thermal limit rather than the pack limit on hard launches. Pack has a lot of thermal mass.

Plus, even within the pack, the overheating was not from the cells but from the plates/wires connecting the cells which were not sized for continuous high power draw. Using fewer and larger cells makes it easier to use thicker wires to connect them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Man am I glad I got out of bed today!

FYI, I was misquote... by my own brother Bob, lol. His story, believable btw. Sadly, looks like I'll need another $100k for the jet car. Five months away, plenty of time to run up the SP.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's always the time to dig. Fred has serious flaws but he deserves credit for this story if true. It won't materially hurt Tesla.

I think it's more of, a group of people at Tesla have been spending their lives over the past X number of years for this moment.....just let them have their moment.

But of course Fred's gotta get those clicks. He's shown many times in the past he has no issue getting his clicks however he can.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Has anyone voiced concerns about the new cell size and pack cooling?

With a pack full of these we are seeing all the quotes on decrease in number of cells needed, improved performance, etc. but no one is talking about the ability to cool them due to the decrease in surface area relative to the volume. And pack cooling is dependent upon total surface area of the cells in the pack.

I mention this because, in the past, cooling has hit upper limits (number of times you can launch a P100DL before it goes to limp mode, number of times around a track in a P3D before it reduces power due to heat).


Just curious about everyone's thoughts on that. Otherwise, I'm excited by the advances that come with this.

I don't have a specific response, but if there's any company that thinks through everything in their technology, it's Tesla. Absolutely zero concern that they're not aware of any potential issues/drawbacks with their new battery tech

 

[Christine69420]

If the market could just stay sideways for the next couple of days, I think we could end the week at $480-500. TSLA is still showing good strength, but I don’t know what to make of the macros. The “tech recovery” is stalling.

I’m encouraged to see all the discussion around competition here. Yes, Tesla has technical, brand, and business model advantages and will maintain a lead for the foreseeable, BUT you also see how the company’s challenge is no longer “how do we convince people to buy EVs”, but “how do we convince people to buy OUR EVs over the competitors’”. We’re crossing the point where the inevitability of a primarily electric future is actually sinking into the dinosaur businesses and even the general populace.

A key point of the Mission has been advanced tremendously because there is now an EV market, and not just cars vs Teslas. Humanity may a future, yet...

They're really going to try and cap this for the next 3 straight days?

As for Nikola's stock action, not sure why anyone would be surprised. To me, there were obvious backroom deals made around doing the IPO and promises of "supporting" the stock until Trevor's lock up expires. I think it'll take a triple whammy of SEC fully announcing investigation(not just a probe) along with US justice Dept investigation expanding and GM pulling out of the deal, for the stock to completely collapse.

It's a Quadruple Witching Friday in the options market. And Max Pain is currently $340. So they have many good reasons to try to control the share price.