Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

It has been empirically studied and proven that accidents per mile on autopilot is lower than without. That doesn't mean there wont be idiots. A knife can be dangerous to a cook if that cook is an idiot about it. But the numbers show autopilot is a net increase in safety.

Also, I personally know people who fell asleep at the wheel in a traditional car because they were exhausted from being over worked and crashed. Luckily there were no major consequences, but people falling asleep at the wheel is not new.

I believe there are something like 3500 deaths each year in the U.S. from drivers falling asleep. This was my primary motive for FSD. It keeps you awake and gives a rather loud alert if you don't put pressure on the steering wheel. I reckon that the $7K I paid for FSD is peanuts compared to a crash at highway speeds.

 

[JustMe]

That is true. However, Tesla's ASP is more in line with that in the US, which is justified by the superior quality and branding, than those in the rest of the world. You don't see Apple lower its prices to compete in China. Or does it?
I don't see why Tesla has to price-match Skoda, BYD or whoever if all it'll do is filling the void left behind by Honda, Toyota, GM, etc...

Teslas are better and worth it, obviously. But that is beside the point. The ASP of vehicles in China is much lower than in the US. In order to sell 5+ million vehicles per year in China, Tesla will have to sell large volumes of Model 2 that might be about $25k.

Sedan sales in China in 2014 were dominated by cars in the range of $20k - from Ford, VW, Nissan, and GM. I haven't recent numbers, and I expect the ASP to grow with the Chinese economy.

I'm all for bullish projections, but let's stay grounded in reality.

source: https://www.davidpublisher.com/Public/uploads/Contribute/595ca10ab34a7.pdf

 

[jerry33]

Yes. And yes it’s been a successful business model before; A&W.

I’m not sure why it stopped as I was just a kid then. I suspect it had something to do with people wanting to ‘get and go’ and the fact you can serve a lot more people in a drive thru scenario, you’d less property for parking and as a society we are a lot less about eating together as families.

Basically because they don't have to pay carhops in a drive thru.

 

[EVCollies]

I've noticed quite an increase in delivery time for a LR Model X, had been 3-4 wk, now 6-10 wk. I wonder if ordering one now could secure a roadrunner version at decreased price?

It's only $100 to reserve, I'll give it a chance, just as I did with Model 3, Y and CT.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I believe there are something like 3500 deaths each year in the U.S. from drivers falling asleep. This was my primary motive for FSD. It keeps you awake and gives a rather loud alert if you don't put pressure on the steering wheel. I reckon that the $7K I paid for FSD is peanuts compared to a crash at highway speeds.

Lane departure avoidance does exactly that and woke me up while driving New York - Montréal through the adirondaks. Probably saved my life once.

 

[gabeincal]

What if we had a nice dip toward max pain tomorrow and closed around $378?
And what if S&P then announced inclusion after-hours Friday?
And then what if Battery Day blew even our already blown minds?

A fella could make quite a bit of cash with home run calls bought tomorrow afternoon.
I'm just sayin!

View attachment 589252

This might just age really well...

 

[ToTheStars]

Stock Option Max Pain

Bear trap last week, many PUTS $400 and under gonna expire worthless...

Awesome, thanks. I think I've never seen such a big difference between stock price and maximum pain before.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

AH OT - Sorry for the noob option question.

I've been sitting on a bunch of cash in an IRA covering a put contract I sold. Didn't want to do anything with the cash, so I was fine with it. Well I didn't buy to close it out before the split and now the price is absurd. Fortunately at least I now have 5x contracts so I can close 1/5 of the original position if I want.

Question.....do I have to just suck it up and buy $90 2022 put contracts for $6.50 or is there an easier way to free up that cash? Seems like an utter waste of $650 for each contract.

 

[Drumheller]

Karen just confirmed the huge cell published by electrek.co is indeed from Tesla.
https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1306692732799328263?s=20

In case it wasn't obvious, this is a joke poking at hydrogen cells.

 

[Zero CO2]

We had a 20% correction last Tuesday. You expecting one every week now? I know TSLA is volatile, but that seems excessive.

no every other week ... we all should be pretty used to volatility at this point with TSLA(noobs excluded) ... the volatility gives us HODLers some tremendous buying opportunities ... that is my real point

 

[mejojo]

I've noticed quite an increase in delivery time for a LR Model X, had been 3-4 wk, now 6-10 wk. I wonder if ordering one now could secure a roadrunner version at decreased price?View attachment 589257
It's only $100 to reserve, I'll give it a chance, just as I did with Model 3, Y and CT.

You can always defer delivery if you are expecting some change....you don't have to buy when they call. Get in line, and when they call say "I won't be ready until January" or something.

 

[Zero CO2]

Karen just confirmed the huge cell published by electrek.co is indeed from Tesla.
https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1306692732799328263?s=20

Karen Rei ... just like Hotel California "You can check out but never leave" TMC

 

[Joe F]

Okay, but I voted my shares through my broker, and obtained my control number for said shares on-line as the number is in the voting form. I then sent that control number to computershare (today), and thought that would be enough to get their control number for the meeting, not to vote my already voted shares, but for what I hope will be a better streaming service (less viewers?) and for the right to submit questions.

I see (now) where the wording suggests sending in the "legal proxy" form letter that you posted as being required. If so, then yes, I agree, it's probable too late to start now. We'll see.

Just received my control number from Computershare to attend the virtual meeting, comment access only as no shares were issued to the number. Since I already voted my shares through Fidelity, that works for me.

Partial mail below. All personal info removed:

"Thank you for registering to attend the TESLA INC meeting virtually on the Internet. To access the virtual meeting, follow the instructions in the proxy statement on the date and time of the meeting. When prompted for the Username/Computershare control number, please enter the number provided above.


The control number will gain you entry to the virtual meeting and allow you to comment. No shares have been issued to it.


Sincerely,


Computershare Investor Services"

 

[Fobble]

no every other week ... we all should be pretty used to volatility at this point with TSLA(noobs excluded) ...

True, we are used to TSLA volatility, but you should not expect to continuously abuse and torture us

 

[Kalani]

https://twitter.com/YingShirleyMen1/status/1306699277725433856?s=20

"Our latest work- Scientists in renowned battery companies like LG Chem have been working on solid state #batteries for a while. A Facile, Dry-Processed Lithium Borate-Based Cathode Coating for Improved All-Solid-State Battery Performance https://doi.org/10.1149/1945-7111/abb8b3 via
@IOPscience"

 

[adiggs]

Awesome, thanks. I think I've never seen such a big difference between stock price and maximum pain before.

From what I've seen, this is reasonably common on these monthly contracts, and especially the quarterly contracts that have been available for 2+ years. There have been 2 years of traders accumulating these contracts - and one of the patterns has been people buying very large quantities of very far OTM puts so they can make it big when Tesla goes bankrupt.

Those contracts are pulling max pain down, even though they've got 0 chance of landing ITM.


I'm with @Lycanthrope and expect the real pain level being targeted to be more like 420-450 (I haven't looked at the max pain site I use to form a more specific opinion). And besides, his ability to read this stuff has proven to be way better than mine, so you definitely don't want to listen to me!

 

[ZeApelido]

Karen Rei ... just like Hotel California "You can check out but never leave" TMC

He, it's not Karen who can't quit TMC, but us who can't quit Karen

 

[ThisStockGood]

Piper Sandler Raises TSLA Price Target to $515

Piper Sandler raises price target

 

[Chunky Jr.]

https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1306709556790259713

Piper Sandler's Alex Potter has increased his price target on $TSLA from $480 to $515.

From the referenced article:

Potter calls Tesla Energy "the topic everyone tries to avoid" due to the lack of inclusion of the business line in many analysts' forecasts. Piper Sandler, however, believes the business has significant growth potential and provides upside to Tesla's valuation.

"We now expect Tesla Energy to eventually exceed $200B/yr in revenue, with TSLA controlling over 1/3 of the market for stationary batteries. We anticipate sharply higher demand for these products, particularly in the late 2020s and 2030s, as renewable energy grows toward 40% of electricity generation," says Potter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In case it wasn't obvious, this is a joke

Zhang, X., Wang, Q. J., Harrison, K. L., Roberts, S. A., & Harris, S. J. (2020). Pressure-Driven Interface Evolution in Solid-State Lithium Metal Batteries. Cell Reports Physical Science, 100012. doi:10.1016/j.xcrp.2019.100012​

Feb 2020 research paper recommends using at least 16 MPa stack pressure with a solid metal li cell.