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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah, I was wondering about that hype train. We know Kato road is a pilot plant for cells. PILOT PLANT. Even for Tesla, it would take 1+ years to get high volume manufacturing from that. And that's after they work with the pilot plant for a while figuring stuff out. That's the whole point of a pilot plant. To tweak the process to eek out those few extra percent of yield and performance.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I think for long term investors in tesla (not speculators) the most overlooked and underhyped of any battery day stuff will be related to manufacturing capacity, and maybe cost per kwh.
Tesla have had five years since they sold me my amazing model s 85D, and yet STILL despite massively ramping up production, they have not spent a single cent on advertising, and not managed to keep up with the number of people who want their cars. And thats despite laws trying to stop them selling them, a concerted media campaign against them, and the best (pathetic) efforts of every other car company on earth trying to make competing products...
...so...
Teslas problem is they *still cannot make their awesome products fast enough, or at the required scale*. Its clear from elons 'living on scraps' comments that tesla energy has been hobbled by the auto-segments hunger for more and more cells.
Even if tesla never invented anything new, or made any progress, or entered any new markets, they STILL need MORE batteries than they can get their hands on...
...so...
The real interesting stuff for me will be about scaling mass production of existing battery tech. If dry electrode means making more cells for the same factory size, thats awesome. If that makes them cheaper, thats even better. Any actual technical improvement in car specs is lovely... but IMHO not the real focus. The *boring* question of battery production capacity is more important than people seem to think.
Tesla have had five years since they sold me my amazing model s 85D, and yet STILL despite massively ramping up production, they have not spent a single cent on advertising, and not managed to keep up with the number of people who want their cars. And thats despite laws trying to stop them selling them, a concerted media campaign against them, and the best (pathetic) efforts of every other car company on earth trying to make competing products...
...so...
Teslas problem is they *still cannot make their awesome products fast enough, or at the required scale*. Its clear from elons 'living on scraps' comments that tesla energy has been hobbled by the auto-segments hunger for more and more cells.
Even if tesla never invented anything new, or made any progress, or entered any new markets, they STILL need MORE batteries than they can get their hands on...
...so...
The real interesting stuff for me will be about scaling mass production of existing battery tech. If dry electrode means making more cells for the same factory size, thats awesome. If that makes them cheaper, thats even better. Any actual technical improvement in car specs is lovely... but IMHO not the real focus. The *boring* question of battery production capacity is more important than people seem to think.
But those are low volume, likely really low volume cars. Maybe the addition to the building going on now in Fremont is the prototype factory that is enough to supply the Plaid S and Plaid X. Start selling them about the same time as the Lucid comes out.
This could also be Elon’s way of trying to sell every car that’s in inventory. It’s possible there are some people who are waiting for 22nd before pulling the trigger.
Because otherwise the headlines of battery day would be "Telsa admits to battery cell delay". As it is, Elon got the "bad" news out first, so battery day news can be positive.
Mo City
Active Member
Elon's tweet should eliminate any concern about the Osborne Effect on sales. Nobody thinking about buying now gives a care about 2022.
I bet they ramp up production faster and beat 2022 by a few months.
I bet they ramp up production faster and beat 2022 by a few months.
ZachF
Active Member
Honestly, he is bascially saying exactly what I was expecting... Plaid/Roadster/CyberTri/etc first, probably performance/LR versions of 3/Y in 2022.
The tech will go to the high end models first and filter down as production ramps. Should be a surprise to no one.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I think they are more surprised that Elon thinks the day before is the ideal time to say it out loud. I mean he probably knew that yesterday, or the day before. Or last year.
Done to offset the osbourn effect?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Exactly. Under-promise, and over-deliver.
Elon 9 months from now:
"Our Ramp on Roadrunner cell lines has gone much better than predicted and I am happy to announce that these cells have been in large-scale deployment of vehicles delivered for the past 45 days."
Something along those lines.
He's acting like a proper CEO.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes.
Bunch of threads in the 3 and Y forums of folks holding off purchases for BD announcements.
Many told them that was silly, that at best you'll see new stuff in Plaid S (and maybe X) on BD and almost certainly won't see the new stuff in 3/Y next year either (cept MAYBE Gigaberlin) but hope springs eternal I guess.
I mean, to be fair, did anyone really expect anything different?
I expect Plaid S&X. That's not supposed to be high volume. So no waiting till 2022 needed.
I expect breakthroughs in technology. Those are still on the table.
Let them sell.
I expect Plaid S&X. That's not supposed to be high volume. So no waiting till 2022 needed.
I expect breakthroughs in technology. Those are still on the table.
Let them sell.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Federal gov't reportedly offering $500M to bring EVs to Ford’s Oakville plant
Ontario government offering $500M to Ford to retool their plant in Oakville (just West of Toronto) to EV manufacturing, if they will take it.
Let's hope this goes better than the $2.5B Ontario government grant that went to GM to keep their Oshawa plant (just East of Toronto) open...they closed within a year of taking the cash.
Governments keeping legacy auto manufacturers alive. Much more to come.
Ontario government offering $500M to Ford to retool their plant in Oakville (just West of Toronto) to EV manufacturing, if they will take it.
Let's hope this goes better than the $2.5B Ontario government grant that went to GM to keep their Oshawa plant (just East of Toronto) open...they closed within a year of taking the cash.
Governments keeping legacy auto manufacturers alive. Much more to come.
Meh, wouldn't give him that much credit. The speculation ran this wild because of all the times he said it'll blow our minds and how insane it will be.
Eh considering Tesla and Elon have never given any sort of timeline for when the new tech would go into vehicles, that's a stretch. Sure the media could try and portray it as that but they would have portrayed it negatively anyways however they can.
And I don't buy the preventing Osborne'ing because we're talking one day here. It wouldn't make any difference in saying the same thing on stage tomorrow.
In the end it makes zero difference to me if he states this in a tweet or on stage. Just peculiar timing if you ask me
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
The timing is kind of bizarre. I’d love to think he’s trapping bears or whatever, but he’s probably just delivering honest news. Why it couldn’t wait for tomorrow I’m not sure.
I find I’m always short on popcorn...
I find I’m always short on popcorn...
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
He got it out of the way now to avoid this dumb over reaction after the actual unveil. Very smart move!
ZachF
Active Member
Tesla is going to have capacity for ~2m vehicles by 2022/23... That's ~200Gwh of batteries needed.
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