Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I understand Cato Rd. can't ramp-up until "yields" improve, but there must be thousands of batteries being produced as they perfect the process. What happens to the batteries that are good? If I were Tesla, I'd be tempted to put them in a hand-built sports car. Maybe several of them. It'd certainly be good practice before putting them in the MS.

All Kato batteries are going into the Semi and will continue to go into the Semi until it's good enough for Plaid.

They guided for small volume of Semi this year and volume production beginning of next year.

 

[S3XY]

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. We should share the quotes from Bob Galyen as well. Bob does not think Tesla is significantly ahead of other battery manufacturers; just thinks Elon and Tesla are significantly more forthcoming about their research and plans.

You mean Bob "CATL" Galyen? He kept responding to Sandy's glowing remarks with "yeah, but other companies are doing that already". Really? Where? In their test labs? Let's see the pilot production lines where they use that technology or chemistry. I have no doubt that others are messing with similar chemistries or bits of engineering. But how many are doing all of those things, on an active pilot line, that will be ramped up to mass production in a year and ramped even further in a couple years?

 

[MC3OZ]

I understand Cato Rd. can't ramp-up until "yields" improve, but there must be thousands of batteries being produced as they perfect the process. What happens to the batteries that are good? If I were Tesla, I'd be tempted to put them in a hand-built sports car. Maybe several of them. It'd certainly be good practice before putting them in the MS.

I think that it depends on how many packs they have.

I'm surprised the new cells are going into the Semi, because they specifically said the Semi cells are coming from GF1.

Small volumes of packs can go into test mules, prototypes and perhaps early Semi production.

Overall I have some suspicion that they might be sandbagging. Yes, yield is an issue, and it may take time to solve, but we have very limited information.
Things might be going a bit better than they appear to be.

 

[Artful Dodger]

@Artful Dodger which platform do you use for that info? You seem to aggregate it very well.

Tesla (TSLA) Interactive Chart Analysis - NASDAQ.com

 

[Ocelot]

Well, I wondered if, as a Tesla trader, it would make sense for me to join this website and thread and, having just read the pre, during and after Battery Day presentation comments, I must thank you all for the good laughs. Some thoughts: Tesla fans will find no flaws in Tesla or Musk who can do no wrong as everything is calculated to have meaning... All of which is bad for a reasoned Tesla trader. But I get that many of you are long term holders, neither rich nor poor, just believers.
For people like me, who believe in Musk's grand project but looking to make money on the way there, BDay was... bidet. The only worthy part was specifically about battery tech and evolutionary accomplishment which pretty much guarantees Tesla's battery manufacturing leadership in the 10 years to come and thus justifies the 380 share price.
Getting excited about the Plaid doesn't register on the relevance spectrum. The 25K car? Meh. It will have to be a base sub 20k with all options to 25k otherwise it will miss the market.
I really like the casted front and rear units but they remind me of all in one appliances... What happens when an impact damages a part of the cast? Replacing the entire unit? Good luck with that.
No talk about million miles battery? I hate the term which should have been the million cycles battery to be meaningful but that was off the table. V2G was propped up as the next big thing, until Musk said it was pointless. So it must be.
To summarize, I think Musk needs to hire a media group to help him with presentation, controlling the message and timing information, instead of letting the fan world fluff up unachievable expectations. Tesla can absolutely satisfy both the tech and engineering geeks and the financial market to achieve Musk's worthy goal.

I hear ya. Disagree on the 25k car, and the need for media fluff...but otherwise I see your points.

 

[MP3Mike]

You mean Bob "CATL" Galyen? He kept responding to Sandy's glowing remarks with "yeah, but other companies are doing that already". Really? Where? In their test labs? Let's see the pilot production lines where they use that technology or chemistry. I have no doubt that others are messing with similar chemistries or bits of engineering. But how many are doing all of those things, on an active pilot line, that will be ramped up to mass production in a year and ramped even further in a couple years?

And at that a full-sized pilot production line.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Is it possible that hydrogen is being promoted by the fossil fuel industry since they know that it’s inferior technology and will therefore prolong FF life?

Just a way of diverting focus away from batteries, which have a clearly defined path to end the ICE age.

I have a friend who works for an important consultant firm, and he's working on the European hydrogen strategy:
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/hydrogen_strategy.pdf
He tells me that utilities are stepping in, more than oil corporation.
From what I gather, hydrogen is DoA for private transport, but has still a lot of room for very energivore vehicles and plants: siderurgy and chemical industry, and even big ships like our beloved RoRo. The were working on hydrogen for Semi too (Nikola...) but that is now covered ;-)

As long as you can locally produce hydrogen with renewables, and then consume it there, I'm fine with that.

 

[[email protected]]

Cali going ICE free soon????

 

[Sancho]

Improving batteries is clearly the most important endeavor for an electric car company, but Tesla is taking the same creative and iterative approach to everything about personal transport: designing, manufacturing, selling, owning, insuring...

They could host a Machine that Builds A Machine Day every year, and it would be mind blowing (except to traders).

This is what happens when a manufacturing company is run by an individual who is a world-class engineer and a world-class entrepreneur. And relentless and fearless.

My money is on Musk, and the team he’s assembled.

 

[Cherry Wine]

You mean Bob "CATL" Galyen? He kept responding to Sandy's glowing remarks with "yeah, but other companies are doing that already". Really? Where? In their test labs? Let's see the pilot production lines where they use that technology or chemistry. I have no doubt that others are messing with similar chemistries or bits of engineering. But how many are doing all of those things, on an active pilot line, that will be ramped up to mass production in a year and ramped even further in a couple years?

Agreed. One comment Bob made that caught my ear was the following (around 1:10):

"...[Elon is] talking about being able to integrate these raw materials directly into the battery with very little processing. That's going to be a big challenge for him; I hope he's going to be successful because if he's able to crack that nut he's going to be even more wealthy than he is today."

That sounds a little contradictory to his "these are just incremental improvements" position.

 

[mickle]

So, according to some EVTV documentation, a Model S battery module is 3.5 inches (89mm) tall after it is removed from the case, but I can't find any info on the inside height of the case. But that means it is at least possible to fit an 80mm battery inside the existing space, although that doesn't leave much room for the connections and other stuff.

 

[replicant]

Cali going ICE free soon????

The more I hear about ICE bans, the more I believe it's a declarative act instead of an imperative. That's because they keep moving the ban to the year when consumers and businesses will not want ICE anyway. It's simply a game of predicting when the transition will happen and declare the ban so it matches that day as precisely as possible.

This allows politicians to

1. not force any fossil-friendly company to do anything (why bother big business if you want not trouble being elected
2. still associate themselves with EV companies
   
3. appear to have done something useful about the ICE problem.

It works for them because, even if you reveal the trick, they'll say "it's still positive, we're calling for an acceleration of the transition". They don't take blame because most people ignore how fast the transition happens only because EV companies already work their asses off.

So I now take the Ban just as the most mainstream estimate of the transition, as it would happen with or without such bans.

 

[lascavarian]

But that means it is at least possible to fit an 80mm battery inside the existing space, although that doesn't leave much room for the connections and other stuff.

Existing S battery is not structural so it seems likely that some “structural” material space will be freed up also.

 

[NicoV]

New filing in the Nikola patent lawsuit case by Tesla's lawyers: https://twitter.com/MotorSkeptic/status/1308903245436387329?s=20

They're alleging that Trevor Milton actually stole the design himself from a hydrogen powered semi truck design named Road Runner that was entered into a 2010 Michelin design challenge. Sounds plausible, because Trevor met with the designer of the Road Runner before patenting the Nikola One.

Stolen or not, if the design is similar of Road Runner, then it’s prior art, and Nikola’s patent is void.

 

[Stinger63]

so you are saying when my brokerage account says I have 5x my money in less than a year, its not real?

It's only real when you sell.

 

[dakh]

I got curious and looked up what's going on with an old pal ALB. Coincidently, market thought something happened on Tuesday to drop it 15%.. They're the main horse people were betting on when trying to play the lithium supplier angle.

 

[cricketman]

Wow, really? You think Tesla would be where it is if it's share price had remained at $25? Tech is great but goes nowhere without financing. Don't get me wrong, I believe in the goal! All those who are buying at 350-400 a share also believe in the goal, but they are taking a bit more risk than early buyers siting on hundreds or thousands of shares at $10 a piece and flapping their mouths in the wind.

I know this is the investing thread, but I do see lots of comments here criticizing Elon Musk for not thinking through how his comments will effect the share price.

I dont think Elon cares, he has his eye on the ball, which is making sure Tesla innovates quickly with regards to batteries and sustainable energy. If Tesla does that then you will never have to worry about the share price, long term it will always go up.

Elon was briefly obsessed about the share price during the Model 3 ramp because he knew he might have to raise a lot of capital and it had not increased very much for 3-4 years. Now that Tesla has a large bank balance, the short term share price is irrelevant. Battery day is more about inspiring potential employees and suppliers and communicating with shareholders what is going on. There is no way to sell or spin this any way for short term share increases

 

[Stinger63]

And at that a full-sized pilot production line.

What has to be said is that as an engineer, Musk likes to talk shop and is driven to squeeze efficiency in everything he builds. For the first time ever, a CEO is willing to come out a shine the light on manufacturing and it makes all the tonka toys boys in us glee with enthusiasm. But this doesn't mean others aren't working on similar solutions, in battery tech or manufacturing. They just aren't talking about it, yet.
Furthermore, Porsche builds great engines. So does BMW and Mercedes and everyone else. Soon all cars will be EVs, Tesla or at least a dozen other manufacturers. It would be a mistake to focus so much on the power unit, because soon enough all cars will output around the same, except for the Plaid crowd looking for sub 2 seconds to the next stop light. Value add will have to come from something else.

 

[EVMeister]

...this doesn't mean others aren't working on similar solutions, in battery tech or manufacturing. They just aren't talking about it, yet.

My BS detector just went off. If they aren't talking about it, what makes you think they're working on it? And could you be any more vague than "similar solutions"? Nobody else has the capability or capacity to do what Tesla is planning to do. I trust the well-informed analysts and other experts in the field (like Sandy Munro) when they say this and also say that what Tesla is doing will further cement their lead. These aren't things that others are just quietly doing behind closed doors, the approach Tesla is taking has many facets and you think others will just flick a switch and do the same?

 

[Stinger63]

My BS detector just went off.

Well, VW is onboard with several vehicles after several years developing their platform. It's not as good as Tesla's but suggesting no one is working on solutions is really short-sighted.