Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

People think Musk is awkward when talking?

 

[Yuha]

With Elon tweeting about Tesla going to India next year, this might be of interest:

All-electric Mercedes EQC becomes available in India

All-electric Mercedes EQC becomes available in India - electrive.com

"Pricing now released for the Mercedes EQS is at 99.30 lakh in India. At the current rate, this is equivalent to about 107,000 euros, so the e-SUV cost Indian buyers almost double than what buyers pay in other markets."

"The high price is due to the extremely high import taxes when it comes to foreign cars in India."

"It is likely the market in India at this price point is limited, and Mercedes opted for a gradual roll-out. Phase I of sales comprises 13 locations in six cities including Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Chennai. Sales personnel is on the ground, but the company also enabled online purchases."

 

[jbcarioca]

In theory anything can be made cheaper if you just had one manufacturer globally.

Then the automotive press would go bonkers saying the Honda and BMW have the same engines. It is it justified spending the extra cash because of the suspension? or interiors?
...

For decades people have worried about these issues.
Since the late 1940's badge engineering has been the norm, mostly without much notice. Some major examples:
Ford and VW made a joint venture in the Southern Cone (Mercosur, in effect) so there are still various Ford and VW models in use with labels from the other brand.
Much more common are engine and transmission sharing. A current example:
1042214_bmw-and-peugeot-citroen-extend-4-cylinder-engine-partnership
Nobody notices or cares.
Then there is the weird one in which everything BUT the engine is badge engineered:
fiat-124-spider-vs-mazda-mx-5
Tesla has already done this too, in case we are all forgetting the:
Toyota RAV4 EV - Wikipedia
and:
Tesla-Powered Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive Gone Soon | News | Car and Driver

Once GF-6 (?) is operating Tesla will certainly be doing analogous things, if not before then. Nobody has even a clue how extensive such cooperation will be, but we can be confident that it is coming.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Millions of cars and trucks travel the world highways, an ocean of money, flowing to the fossil industry and OPEC. The fossil fuel industry will not go quietly into the night. They will stand and defend their business.

This war is only beginning.

Actually, it's not "millions."

Elon reports it's about TWO BILLION, which is why we are so very, very far behind. Even if we were to somehow, magically, snap our fingers and have all production switch to EV's on Monday a.m., the size of the current fleet means we're looking at TWO DECADES to swap the fleet over to EV's.

Given the risks posed by positive feedback loops WE DO NOT have that sort of time. Over a century of unchecked GHG dumping has us on a very, very dangerous path.

Hence, the two MS's in our garage, and this month's conversion of the rest of our "natural gas" (which is BS) appliances so as to have an entirely electric home, all of which are powered by Tesla Energy as well. (Despite the two MS's, our electric bill for the year is under $40.)

There is no more neutrality in the world. You either have to be part of the solution, or you're going to be part of the problem.
--Eldridge Cleaver

Tip: If you're still burning fossil fuels in any form, YOU are part of the problem. So let's lead by example and stop doing this, especially given the likely intelligence and foresight found among so many here. Others will see and follow in our footsteps. Start planning for this today.

From last 60 Minutes weekend--things are grim and getting worse, as predicted with stunning accuracy by NASA's Dr. Hansen over 30 years ago:

Climate scientists on Earth's two futures

 

[Jack6591]

Actually, it's not "millions."

Elon reports it's about TWO BILLION, which is why we are so very, very far behind. Even if we were to somehow, magically, snap our fingers and have all production switch to EV's on Monday a.m., the size of the current fleet means we're looking at TWO DECADES to swap the fleet over to EV's.

Given the risks posed by positive feedback loops WE DO NOT have that sort of time. Over a century of unchecked GHG dumping has us on a very, very dangerous path.

Hence, the two MS's in our garage, and this month's conversion of the rest of our "natural gas" (which is BS) appliances so as to have an entirely electric home, all of which are powered by Tesla Energy as well. (Despite the two MS's, our electric bill for the year is under $40.)

There is no more neutrality in the world. You either have to be part of the solution, or you're going to be part of the problem.
--Eldridge Cleaver

Tip: If you're still burning fossil fuels in any form, YOU are part of the problem. So let's lead by example and stop doing this, especially given the likely intelligence and foresight found among so many here. Others will see and follow in our footsteps. Start planning for this today.

From last 60 Minutes weekend--things are grim and getting worse, as predicted with stunning accuracy by NASA's Dr. Hansen over 30 years ago:

Climate scientists on Earth's two futures

As I penned that blog, I worried about its negative sense. The flip side: We are in a target rich environment. I believe the Tesla community is changing the world. As mankind moves from mine and burn to sustainable transportation and renewable energy the re-wilding of our planet will be astonishing to watch. Living organisms instinctively heal. Before us, lies man’s greatest challenge and greatest opportunity.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Impact of Counterfeit Shares on Stock Price"



Securities hocus pocus allows MMs and hedgies to create millions of counterfeit shares. All is explained in the "Citizens for Securities Reform" White Paper Counterfeiting Stock 2.0

Also available as a 45 page PDF with Appendices.

Best TSLA-related read of 2020 (even though it was written years ago). Explains much (if not all).

Lodger #NakedShortSelling

 

[dc_h]

Last word from the gigagrunt on twitter was GFN was maxxed around 7200 battery packs (cell constrained) a week going to Freemont for 3/Y, which would be just under 375,000 cars a year.... and best they could improve to (if orders shifted more to SRs than LRs) would be 8k a week or 416,000 a year.

S/X has been around 15-17k the two full quarters and around 6k I think in Q2 with the plant shutdown.

So without more cells Freemont looks maxed at either 375k 3/Y and ~65k S/X (and that may be demand limited at this point given they used to make 100k of em) so ~420k cars... or maybe like 450k if they get a very heavy SR mix for the 3.

The thread on twitter does mention a 14th Panasonic line but that it won't be running in time to meaningfully contribute to Q4 2020.

Source:
https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1313506427873366016


I think Tesla needs just over 170k production in Q4 worldwide to hit 500k for a year... if we figure another 15k S/X, that leaves them needing to build 155k of 3/Y.

At 7200 a week in CA for 13 weeks we get 93,600 cars....leaving 61,400 for China to build, or 4723 a week.... I know they were north of 4k by June/July, but not sure how near to 5k they are.

Should be fairly tight....(and even tighter for delivery of 500k total) presumably more guidance on this to come on the earnings call.

Does show their original 500k guidance for 2020, has they not lost like 60,000 cars of production time at Freemont during shutdown, would've been fairly easy to hit.

Good post, the 93,600 is in line w Q3 reported production. Interesting if the cell chemistry update is in production for the 5% energy improvements.
The new Model 3 refresh, if including Model Y efficiencies, could increase range or allow more cars to be built with fewer batteries.

 

[Knightshade]

Ouch. So Hyundai is replacing 25,564 battery packs...? That must hurt...

Especially when they've said publicly they're already heavily battery constrained on production of the cars in the first place, to the point there's already long waiting lists and dealer markups to get one (esp in the US, since most of the limited supply goes to the EU for emissions regulation reasons)....

 

[Knightshade]

Keep in mind that during all iterations of Fremont pre-Tesla none were much vertically integrated. They did stamp many metal parts, but it was then a traditional plant, so was really assembly plus some stamping. High vertical integration does produce fewer vehicle counts than does assembly. Thus comparisons between various iteration of Fremont really do not mean much. Nonetheless it is interesting.

Fair point... I also expect there's a significant difference in gross margin per car produced, in Teslas favor. even if so far they're making a few less of them

 

[gabeincal]

Yesterday I met with 3 people (2 are my friends). Sadly, only one of them had the time to drive my MY. 15 minutes into, all 3 of them were disappointed by their current cars and started to think about how to get rid of them and get a 3 or a Y All their cars are fancy, newish, and of course ICE (BMW X3, BMW 4 GT, Lexus RX). Did my best salesman pitch but Teslas sell themselves - we just need to let the ignorants try them!

PS: Smart Summon is getting decent...

 

[Electroman]

Keep reporting these people when they're out of line. Twitter does take action.

View attachment 597317

Nope they don't. Their actions seems to be random. I am sure this guy - the most scummiest bastard out there - has been reported over a thousand times, specifically when he tweeted a famous teenage pro-AGW personality should get the same treatment as other victims of Epstien. But thousands of users reported and they all received the same message from twitter, "this account violated some policy, blah blah blah", and yet that guy has not been temporary or shadow banned even once.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Citizens for Securities Reform" White Paper Counterfeiting Stock 2.0

Also available as a 45 page PDF with Appendices.

For example, there is this argument :

"How Pervasive Is This? - At any given point in time more than 100 emerging companies are under attack as described above. This is not to be confused with the day-to-day shorting that occurs in virtually every stock, which is purportedly about thirty percent of the daily volume. The success rate for short attacks is over ninety percent - a success being defined as putting the company into bankruptcy or driving the stock price to pennies. It is estimated that 1000 small companies have been put out of business by the shorts. Admittedly, not every small company deserves to succeed, but they do deserve a level playing field.

"The secrecy that surrounds the shorts, the prime brokers, the DTC and the regulatory agencies makes it impossible to accurately estimate how much money has been stolen from the investing public by these predators, but the total is measured in billions of dollars. The problem is also international in scope."​

Lodger #NakedShortSelling

 

[Fobble]

GM to unveil Hummer all electric truck Oct 20th. This is in hope to compete withe the Cybertruck.
Hummer Electric Pickup - 2022 GMC Hummer SUV Specs, News, Photos

Summary based on the article, and collective specs spread around previously:
- 1000 HP, 0-60 around 3 sec
- 200 kWh battery, around 400 miles range
- Up to 3 motors
- Removable roof top. Can be removed by one person
- Has "Crab Mode", to allow to move diagonally
- Adjustable air suspension
- It will have the SUV version
- Production: Fall 2021
- Also, Benzinga mentions will open for pre-order Oct 20 as well.

 

[gabeincal]

Crazy that when I bought our previous MS we had 3 (!!) superchargers in the SF Bay Area - that was 3 years ago.

Now? Hard to count...

 

[Krugerrand]

People think Musk is awkward when talking?

Who doesn’t love a word salad like that?

 

[gabeincal]

Who doesn’t love a word salad like that?

He seems like a likable guy but that was just embarrassing..

 

[Singuy]

Yesterday I met with 3 people (2 are my friends). Sadly, only one of them had the time to drive my MY. 15 minutes into, all 3 of them were disappointed by their current cars and started to think about how to get rid of them and get a 3 or a Y All their cars are fancy, newish, and of course ICE (BMW X3, BMW 4 GT, Lexus RX). Did my best salesman pitch but Teslas sell themselves - we just need to let the ignorants try them!

PS: Smart Summon is getting decent...

Used it twice due to rain recently. Was not disappointed at all. Way better than before.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

GM to unveil Hummer all electric truck Oct 20th. This is in hope to compete withe the Cybertruck.
Hummer Electric Pickup - 2022 GMC Hummer SUV Specs, News, Photos

Summary based on the article, and collective specs spread around previously:
- 1000 HP, 0-60 around 3 sec
- 200 kWh battery, around 400 miles range
- Up to 3 motors
- Removable roof top. Can be removed by one person
- Has "Crab Mode", to allow to move diagonally
- Adjustable air suspension
- It will have the SUV version
- Production: Fall 2021
- Also, Benzinga mentions will open for pre-order Oct 20 as well.

Seems more competitive with Rivian, than the Cybertruck. I suspect the 400 mile version to be around $30k more than the Cybertuck Tri-Motor.

 

[ZachF]

Some stats for ya...

I harvested out the data from this graph to mine 2017 auto production for North American factories:
How Tesla Stacks Up Against America’s Most Productive Car Factories

Here are the top North American factories in 2017:
628,108 Smyrna, TN (Nissan)
572,104 Aguascalientes, MX (Nissan)
466,284 Kansas City, MO (Ford)
462,228 Puebla, MX (VW)
428,428 Alliston, ON (Honda)
421,148 Louisville, KY (Ford)
419,432 Georgetown, KY (Toyota)
412,464 Princeton, IN (Toyota)
410,852 Silao, MX (GM)
407,264 Kentucky Truck, KY (Ford)
377,156 Marysville, OH (Honda
371,644 Dearborn Truck, MI (Ford
371,280 Spartanburg, SC (BMW)
367,380 Chicago, IL (Ford)
367,016 West Point, GA (Hyundai)
363,428 Lafayette, IN (Toyota/Subaru)
360,984 Lincoln, NE (Honda)
354,692 Jefferson North, MA (FCA)
351,676 Arlington, TX (GM)
342,680 Saltillo, MX (FCA)
341,796 Warren Truck, MI (FCA)
328,380 Montgomery, AL (Hyundai)
323,908 Cambridge, ON (Toyota)
307,216 Fort Wayne, IN (GM)
302,432 Canton, MS (Nissan)
295,984 Toluca, MX (FCA)
290,108 Wentzville, MO (GM)
289,380 Tuscaloosa, AL (Daimler)
285,428 Cuernavaca, MX (GM)
266,708 San Antonio, TX (Toyota)
262,392 Ingersoll, ON (GM)
251,524 Woodstock, ON (Toyota)
249,600 San Luis Potos, MX (GM)
246,636 Windsor, MI (FCA)
243,776 Hermosillo, MX (Ford)
240,656 Greensburg, PA (Honda)
236,652 Spring Hill, TN (GM)
235,092 Brampton, ON (FCA)
231,400 East Liberty, OH (Honda)
222,196 Fairfax, KS (GM)
221,520 Monterrey, MX (Nissan)
220,740 Oakville, ON (Ford)
204,984 Toledo South, OH (FCA)
198,796 Michigan Assem, MI (Ford)
198,016 Flint Truck, MI (GM)
185,796 Salamanca, MX (Mazda, Toyota)
178,776 Lansing Delta, MI (GM)
176,592 Celeya, MX (Honda)
163,852 Blue Springs, MO (Toyota)
158,548 San Jose Chiapa, MX (VW)
146,588 Flat Rock, MI (Ford)
143,468 Lordstown, OH (GM)
140,400 Chattanooga, TN (VW)
138,684 Toledo North, OH (FCA)
133,172 Lansing GR, MI (GM)
117,832 Ramos Arizpe, MX (GM)
109,876 Belvidere, IL (FCA)
104,624 Baja California,MX (Toyota)
101,348 Fremont, CA (Tesla)
86,788 Oshawa, ON (GM)
86,112 Hamtramck, MI (GM)
69,576 Orion, MI (GM)
68,016 Cuautitlan, MX (Ford)
64,740 Avon Lake, OH (Ford)
43,576 Charleston, SC (Daimler)
36,868 El Salto, MX (Honda)
22,984 Bowling Green, KY (GM)

Reason I post this is that it looks like Fremont could possibly take the #1 spot in North American auto production by the end of this year. Nissan sales are in the dumps since then, so it's likely the top rankers will be significantly down.

Also interesting, If the Texas terrafactory gets to 2m+ production, it alone will produce more cars than the state of Michigan!

If we take these factory outputs and map them out, then add a Fremont at 600k and GF Austin at 2.2m, the landscape looks like this (area of circle is equal to production.

Yellow = factory outputs in 2017
Red = Tesla planned outputs

If GF Texas makes 2.2m per year that would equal what Michigan produced in 2017, the largest auto production state, Ontario produced 1.9m in 2017, and Kentucky 1.3m

 

[traxila]

Millions of cars and trucks travel the world highways, an ocean of money, flowing to the fossil industry and OPEC. The fossil fuel industry will not go quietly into the night. They will stand and defend their business.

This war is only beginning.

Think we are approaching the end of the beginning.

Tesla is now spearheading a direct assault on the status quo of mobility and energy storage and generation. It is the fossils’ move now and they are on their heels using time tested strategies that are increasingly less effective. Let us see what else they come up with.

I would say the beginning of the war was that magical moment when someone finally said “where the hell are the batteries?!” and launched a mostly unilateral effort to build the world’s largest battery factory with the latest technologies. This act was heavily ridiculed and dismissed as utter fantasy by all the players and almost all the spectators involved.

Think it is obvious to most people now how ridiculous and fantastical it is to describe oil and fossil usage in 2050, yet that is exactly what is happening.

Exciting times for sure.