Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Come on Tesla!

Tesla didn't pay their water bills in Berlin, now the utility cuts the water supply until they get paid.
Tesla got several warnings.

This is just an unnecessary invitation for all the "Tesla kills the groundwater" critics. Which is the main argument against Teslas factory.

And the construction may be interrupted!

Google Übersetzer

The water appears to be running. Construction ongoing.

https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1316757390616858624?s=21

 

[Knightshade]

Quick question this might be a good place to ask since so many folks use different brokers...

Merrill lets you assign a specific tax lot online if you want to sell something- as I imagine everyone does.

But if you get a sold call assigned, you CAN NOT specify which tax lot to fill the assignment with online- you have to call, and a broker has to manually submit a request to another team, and then maybe in the next 2 weeks the change will go through.


Which is pretty garbage, and a PITA if selling CCs.

Anybody have a good recommendation for someone who lets you do this entirely online/yourself/instantly?

 

[gabeincal]

Maximum-pain.com shows 400 as max pain for this week. Thought that was interesting and I’m sure somebody here knows why that is inaccurate..?

 

[Knightshade]

Maximum-pain.com shows 400 as max pain for this week. Thought that was interesting and I’m sure somebody here knows why that is inaccurate..?

Bunch of garbage low puts I'd imagine- there's a huge # of $200 puts for example yanking the average down.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 10 minutes ago: China-Made Tesla Model Y Could Reach 360K Units Annually: Research Report

 

[Tim S]

Maximum-pain.com shows 400 as max pain for this week. Thought that was interesting and I’m sure somebody here knows why that is inaccurate..?

Lots of worthless puts at $200 (pre-split $1000) are skewing the numbers.

 

[AudubonB]

Berlin Gigafactory and water -

The water appears to be running. Construction ongoing.

https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1316757390616858624?s=21

Maybe, maybe not. At a very quick look, I see 3 possibilities:

1. Water was shut off because of nonpayment. Were that the case, then rolling head or heads might be in order - someone(s) at Tesla OR someone with unprofessional conduct at the utility.
2. Water was shut off for logistical reason - changing to a different flow routine, line sourcing changed or so forth. A Known Situation for both parties.
3. A mixer being housed down, as per the above tweet, signifies nothing. Mixing trucks routinely carry independent, pressurized water tanks precisely for washing down the equipment after each pour: a mixing drum is very expensive and the easiest way to destroy it is not to clean concrete before it hardens. Absolutely routine procedure.


I view #1 as supremely unlikely but missteps or bad actors can creep in.

I view #2 as almost certainly to occur at a minimum of once during the construction period and now is at least as likely a time as any other.

I view #3 as an example of why Twitter is a moronic site from which to obtain information, as any random observer who is looking for validation for a pre-held notion, but doesn’t know what he’s looking at, can be a dangerous fool.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

The context of the conversation suggests to me it may be related to batteries and motors.. and perhaps castings.

V11 with 4D is also likely, and perhaps that will support (future) snake chargers.

Seems to me snake chargers are best located in indoor locations, when we will see them is an open question.

But overall we are much more likely to guess wrong than right, even if Green is right

Hm... Green has been a solid source of news over the years - not always right, but more often than not.
What would show up in code?
For sure, FSD HW4 would. I think HW3 is from March 2019 - so 1½ years is a bit early for HW4. Too early?
But a better/bigger neural net would perhaps should up now if the code needs to branch out in order to support both HW3 and (a future, but around the corner) HW4.
On the other hand: Is this likely, given that Tesla should know by now, given Green and others inspecting it, how to obfuscate their code?
Then again: If you have the right tools and is persistent, and you know some of the code-base, then perhaps such a change will shine through.
It could also be more 'mundane' such as code-support for a battery pack consisting of the new 4680 cells. Or several such...

Disclaimer: I am a super-bull so I tend to be optimistic.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Berlin Gigafactory and water -


Maybe, maybe not. At a very quick look, I see 3 possibilities:

1. Water was shut off because of nonpayment. Were that the case, then rolling head or heads might be in order - someone(s) at Tesla OR someone with unprofessional conduct at the utility.
2. Water was shut off for logistical reason - changing to a different flow routine, line sourcing changed or so forth. A Known Situation for both parties.
3. A mixer being housed down, as per the above tweet, signifies nothing. Mixing trucks routinely carry independent, pressurized water tanks precisely for washing down the equipment after each pour: a mixing drum is very expensive and the easiest way to destroy it is not to clean concrete before it hardens. Absolutely routine procedure.


I view #1 as supremely unlikely but missteps or bad actors can creep in.

I view #2 as almost certainly to occur at a minimum of once during the construction period and now is at least as likely a time as any other.

I view #3 as an example of why Twitter is a moronic site from which to obtain information, as any random observer who is looking for validation for a pre-held notion, but doesn’t know what he’s looking at, can be a dangerous fool.

Sure -- but the observer was also stating that the cement mixing plant was also running (in addition to the trucks being hosed down). I can't imagine the mixing plant would be operational without access to running water. Even if it were a dry mix plant, water is still pumped in separately to the truck, no?

 

[Tslynk67]

Maximum-pain.com shows 400 as max pain for this week. Thought that was interesting and I’m sure somebody here knows why that is inaccurate..?

Shitputs.

 

[Todd Burch]

Today is an even lighter day in trading volume than we've seen earlier this week. Only 20M shares by noon.

 

[Tslynk67]

Sure -- but the observer was also stating that the cement mixing plant was also running (in addition to the trucks being hosed down). I can't imagine the mixing plant would be operational without access to running water. Even if it were a dry mix plant, water is still pumped in separately to the truck, no?

Well why spoil a good FUD story paid for by hard-working short-sellers...?

Did the trick to help push below $450, MM's must be delighted. Nice manipulation today, got to give them their dues.

 

[Chocochip]

My theory on Lucid:

Lucid is full of people who left Tesla. I think Musk resents that those people abandoned Tesla and went to create a competitor. Lucid also has some of the "barnacles" that were scraped off of Tesla's back, were laid off, and got hired by Lucid.

Although in general Musk wants EV competition, I think Musk wants Lucid specifically to fail because of these reasons. Just a theory though, but the tweet from a few weeks back made it seem that Elon had a chip on his shoulder for Rawlinson because he left Tesla at a critical time.

I don't think Elon wants Lucid to fail. It feels more like "what, you thought it's gonna be easy?". He wants them to have to work hard for it. There's also the matter of the optics of a situation in which people who have left Tesla to work for a newer, competing EV maker can put out a less expensive, longer-range, more luxurious EV. We know Elon is highly competitive (Nurburgring, anyone?), so it makes sense he won't just have Tesla roll over and let the new guys have a free ride.

More significantly for us as investors, though, is the apparent ease with which Tesla is dropping prices on the Model S LR. You know they're not selling those cars for a net loss, but they're still giving up margins for each unit. Why? Maybe because there's a major redesign about to be introduced early in Q1 2021 (why are all these rotten eggs flying in my general direction all of a sudden?). Maybe because Tesla concluded that they're currently wasting a lot of production capacity for the S and X (90k/year, but selling around 2/3rds of that) and it makes sense to improve their COGS on those models by pushing out more units, and that bringing down the starting price doesn't also necessarily bring down total revenue because most buyers spend more on options (cough, FSD) or they go up-range. Whichever it is, this is a money-making exercise, which incidentally allows the memelord to once more release his inner nerdy teenager.

 

[mongo]

I view #3 as an example of why Twitter is a moronic site from which to obtain information, as any random observer who is looking for validation for a pre-held notion, but doesn’t know what he’s looking at, can be a dangerous fool.

Agree on truck washing, but the Tweet also said:
" the cement mixing plant was still working"
Which requires much more water.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

.....snip....A few years back I was a big proponent of individuals harnessing the power of Index funds to build wealth. I can no longer recommend that strategy and I have to assume others are seeing the same things I'm seeing. If there is a mass exodus from passive investing, it will actually be a net negative to own companies listed on the major indexes (and the S&P in particular). Because S&P Index funds would need to be sold off to transfer capital to active managers and this should cause the valuations of companies listed there to decline. This might sound far-fetched, but I don't think we are too far from that point. The S&P is not dynamic enough to remain relevant in a world changing so rapidly.

You are absolutely spot on. I have been an index investor for decades because I didn’t have the time, knowledge, or interest in researching companies. Now because of an interest in cleantech, I know more about TSLA and finally started buying (unfortunately much too late because of my long-held bias to index funds). I’ve used up all of my cash funds and now must sell some index funds to buy more TSLA.

.... snip...Ask yourself this question: If TSLA on Thursday started heading downward and looked like it could dip below 450, would you sell? I sure wouldn't, as I see the ER and the next 10 years of TSLA looking too attractive to play such a dip, and this psychology might be the key to the strength that TSLA is experiencing as we move closer to ER day.

I bought another 100 shares during this AM’s mandatory morning dip at $445 thanks to @Papafox . That just means another $44.5k that is removed from the S&P index.

 

[hobbes]

Berlin Gigafactory and water -


Maybe, maybe not. At a very quick look, I see 3 possibilities:

1. Water was shut off because of nonpayment. Were that the case, then rolling head or heads might be in order - someone(s) at Tesla OR someone with unprofessional conduct at the utility.
2. Water was shut off for logistical reason - changing to a different flow routine, line sourcing changed or so forth. A Known Situation for both parties.
3. A mixer being housed down, as per the above tweet, signifies nothing. Mixing trucks routinely carry independent, pressurized water tanks precisely for washing down the equipment after each pour: a mixing drum is very expensive and the easiest way to destroy it is not to clean concrete before it hardens. Absolutely routine procedure.


I view #1 as supremely unlikely but missteps or bad actors can creep in.

I view #2 as almost certainly to occur at a minimum of once during the construction period and now is at least as likely a time as any other.

I view #3 as an example of why Twitter is a moronic site from which to obtain information, as any random observer who is looking for validation for a pre-held notion, but doesn’t know what he’s looking at, can be a dangerous fool.

There is no question about the reason - it was nonpayment.

Google Translate

Question is how that could happen.

 

[GBleck]

Bunch of garbage low puts I'd imagine- there's a huge # of $200 puts for example yanking the average down.

pile of puts at $210 and the out of money calls are more sporadic then the even put distribution.

 

[Boomer19]

Quick question this might be a good place to ask since so many folks use different brokers...

Merrill lets you assign a specific tax lot online if you want to sell something- as I imagine everyone does.

But if you get a sold call assigned, you CAN NOT specify which tax lot to fill the assignment with online- you have to call, and a broker has to manually submit a request to another team, and then maybe in the next 2 weeks the change will go through.


Which is pretty garbage, and a PITA if selling CCs.

Anybody have a good recommendation for someone who lets you do this entirely online/yourself/instantly?

check IBKR
it’s a java app you launch to itemize/select the lots called tax optimizer

i have used it to differentiate between shares traded and shares resulting from exercise, but not assignment (shouldn’t make a difference)

plus ib has lowest commissions for ‘real trading’ versus ‘free’ trading, unless you’re large enough and trade with enough volume to tier down to cheaper comm levels (at that point many brokers are competitive)

 

[Nocturnal]

There is no question about the reason - it was nonpayment.

Google Translate

Question is how that could happen.

Hard to say. In the US at least these types of construction meters are portable. You go to the utility, and pay a deposit for the meter. Then you connect it to a hydrant for your use. You pay for the water when you bring the meter back.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There is no question about the reason - it was nonpayment.

Google Translate

Question is how that could happen.

Lol, there's LOTS of questions:

1. what water utility bills their customers on a 14 days cycle?
2. what water utility disconnects a customer after 14 days?
3. what water utility sends multiple notices within a 14 day span?
4. what water utility is being lied about by TSLA short sellers?
5. what evidence is there that the water was actually turned off?
6. (other than that single-sourced 'story, that is)

This was pure B.S. from the very start. Surprised you were taken in so easily.