Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I think this is enough to be on topic. Tomorrow might be a green day based on this.

'Come home with the bacon’: Trump demands his negotiating team secure a deal with Pelosi

President Trump said Thursday that he has instructed his negotiators to go higher than their $1.8 trillion proposal and “come home with the bacon” in talks with congressional Democrats.

“I will (go higher than $1.8 trillion) and the Republicans will, too. Because we like stimulus, we want stimulus, and we think we should have stimulus,” Trump told Fox Business Network.

The problem for Waymo and Cruise will be if Tesla achieves a robotaxi release before they have entered enough markets to give them revenue to keep growing while operating. I think that is currently an open question. Last year Waymo had clear intentions on being a robotaxi by end of year, but it looks like that is delayed to this one (the most recent news was that they would gradually expand to being fully open to the public, not that they are right now).

Scale.

Let's say Waymo beats Tesla to market with FSD by 2 years. Is that enough time for Waymo to put hundreds of thousands of cars on the road and into their network? And not to mention, they will either be buying ICE vehicles and will face that higher cost per mile, or buying cars from Tesla (doubtful any other company has a prayer of scaling enough to service a robotaxi network).

 

[Chocochip]

As earnings draw near, my # 1 thing I'm most interested is, like most quarters, Tesla Energy growth. Really think that the first sign of the growth curve for energy(growth of at least 40%) will cause another 15-20% in stock appreciation since it will force Wall st to give energy a fair valuation.

Whats everyone else's #1 thing they're looking for at earnings or in the earnings call? No lists ....your top thing

Change in OpEx, in a quarter where we’ve had serious increase in deliveries and in solar deployments. Hoping for flat or very small increase.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Whats everyone else's #1 thing they're looking for at earnings or in the earnings call? No lists ....your top thing

Margins — I try to watch gross margins over time as ASP continues to decrease. I think this quarter will be another big step up there. Elon didn’t just drop the MS price twice in two days because of Lucid; it was a flex. He can do that because of the margins on the S (and because it has relatively low volume).

Battery costs coming down, manufacturing efficiencies, Gigapresses coming online, vertical integration and economies of scale as two+ new factories ramp up...Tesla is going to suck up all of the profits in auto, even if they “only” end up with 25% market share. They’re the sea monster lurking just beneath the surface right now, and few have taken serious notice of them in the industry, even if the market has an inkling.

This quarter is going to be an important data point on that gross margin curve. Energy will come, but Big Auto falls first because Tesla can make a better car and sell it cheaper than the competition, while making far more profit.

 

[Thekiwi]

I think people are overlooking the fact that the Waymo/Cruise solutions for FSD robotaxis that rely on geofencing is going to be quickly be cheaper operationally than other services relying on human drivers in every vehicle in the same area. Yes the solution isnt a "general solution" like Tesla is building, but for a geofenced Robotaxi fleet it doesn't have to be. Most of Ubers profits come from small, dense areas that geofenced robotaxis would work well in - ridesharing operators don't need a "general solution" FSD to become very profitable, especially if a general solution is going to take years to match the geofenced solutions in those particular areas.

"good enough" now always beats "perfect" when perfect isn't available to use.

 

[Singuy]

I think people are overlooking the fact that the Waymo/Cruise solutions for FSD robotaxis that rely on geofencing is going to be quickly be cheaper operationally than other services relying on human drivers in every vehicle in the same area. Yes the solution isnt a "general solution" like Tesla is building, but for a geofenced Robotaxi fleet it doesn't have to be. Most of Ubers profits come from small, dense areas that geofenced robotaxis would work well in - ridesharing operators don't need a "general solution" FSD to become very profitable, especially if a general solution is going to take years to match the geofenced solutions in those particular areas.

"good enough" now always beats "perfect" when perfect isn't available to use.

If it takes 5 years to geo fence and train their NN to eventually be good enough for regulatory approval PER CITY, then I'll see Waymo service near where I live when my great grand kids are in college.

 

[Knightshade]

Did you realize that the only thing keeping Tesla's autopilot from being designated L4 is the assignment of responsibility? Navigate on Autopilot meets the requirement (and then some) except for that detail. Geo-fencing isn't the only boundary, being restricted to Interstates is valid in the definition.

That's not correct on several levels.

NoA isn't competent enough to do the job at L4 for one- it's possible the re-write version will be, but the current one still hits stopped vehicles and has no concept of object permenance.


Additionally- L4 requires never needing a human to take over. It would need to be able safely park itself, legally and out of traffic, if it realized it was leaving its operational domain to be L4. The current system if you ignore the nags just stops and parks itself in an active interstate lane.

Personally- from the perspective of both an owner and an investor- what will really make folks take notice is if the re-write is good enough they move to L3 highway driving.

"You can turn it on, and read a book or watch a movie while the car drives on the highway"

That's game changing compared to how good of an L2 system you have versus anybody else.

And I absolutely think the re-write potentially can do that (though I suspect it'll be somewhat weather limited- given how poorly the cameras handle heavy rain or snow).

That doesn't get you robotaxis, which is a much heavier lift technology-advancement wise... but it'll get you a LOT of attention and a LOT of people badly wanting your vehicles... which is a good thing right when you're planning to massively scale up how many you're building.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Have any other Canadians noticed that the S price hasn’t changed in Canada yet. Before today I think the last time I checked was maybe a month ago but I think it’s the same today. At this point it’s cheaper just to buy in the US and import to Canada and pay the exchange.

 

[Singuy]

Have any other Canadians noticed that the S price hasn’t changed in Canada yet. Before today I think the last time I checked was maybe a month ago but I think it’s the same today. At this point it’s cheaper just to buy in the US and import to Canada and pay the exchange.

I think Elon is just doing it for the memes. Unless there's a currency that can somehow show 69 and 420 in there somewhere, it's not goin to change. This gag is US specific.

 

[MC3OZ]

My guess is the the price cut war with Lucid is mostly just Elon pretending to have a price war.
It is entertaining and very effective advertising... that is one purpose.

An equally important purpose is moving Model S inventory in Q4, I have a hunch here that later in Q4 or perhaps in Q1, the configurator will be updated with new Model S specs and prices, the base price is likely to jump back up, but the car should have more range... nothing concrete here just a hunch.

The configurator is also likely to be update for Model 3, Model Y 7 seater (and perhaps more) and perhaps even Model X.
This will not be the last time Tesla cuts the model S price to <that number), it is too tempting and too effective to ignore.

Some sort of friendly banter / competition with Lucid or even just wanting to stay top dog, is reason 3, but I have reason 1 & 2 higher up the list.

The best kind of advertising, is free, gets people talking, and gets buyers off the fence.

 

[kbM3]

Did you realize that the only thing keeping Tesla's autopilot from being designated L4 is the assignment of responsibility? Navigate on Autopilot meets the requirement (and then some) except for that detail. Geo-fencing isn't the only boundary, being restricted to Interstates is valid in the definition.

That's not correct on several levels.

NoA isn't competent enough to do the job at L4 for one- it's possible the re-write version will be, but the current one still hits stopped vehicles and has no concept of object permenance.


Additionally- L4 requires never needing a human to take over. It would need to be able safely park itself, legally and out of traffic, if it realized it was leaving its operational domain to be L4. The current system if you ignore the nags just stops and parks itself in an active interstate lane.

Personally- from the perspective of both an owner and an investor- what will really make folks take notice is if the re-write is good enough they move to L3 highway driving.

"You can turn it on, and read a book or watch a movie while the car drives on the highway"

That's game changing compared to how good of an L2 system you have versus anybody else.

And I absolutely think the re-write potentially can do that (though I suspect it'll be somewhat weather limited- given how poorly the cameras handle heavy rain or snow).

That doesn't get you robotaxis, which is a much heavier lift technology-advancement wise... but it'll get you a LOT of attention and a LOT of people badly wanting your vehicles... which is a good thing right when you're planning to massively scale up how many you're building.

Step 1: Feature Complete: 1 intervention every 50 miles
Step 2: Tesla has data to prove it can go 10,000X that distance between safety interventions or accidents and maybe 1k miles between nuisance interventions
Step 3: Regulators approve.

Step 2 (or March of the 9’s) includes solving an exploding number of edge cases.
Highway Autopilot doesn’t even handle road debris yet.

 

[Singuy]

That's not correct on several levels.

NoA isn't competent enough to do the job at L4 for one- it's possible the re-write version will be, but the current one still hits stopped vehicles and has no concept of object permenance.


Additionally- L4 requires never needing a human to take over. It would need to be able safely park itself, legally and out of traffic, if it realized it was leaving its operational domain to be L4. The current system if you ignore the nags just stops and parks itself in an active interstate lane.

Personally- from the perspective of both an owner and an investor- what will really make folks take notice is if the re-write is good enough they move to L3 highway driving.

"You can turn it on, and read a book or watch a movie while the car drives on the highway"

That's game changing compared to how good of an L2 system you have versus anybody else.

And I absolutely think the re-write potentially can do that (though I suspect it'll be somewhat weather limited- given how poorly the cameras handle heavy rain or snow).

That doesn't get you robotaxis, which is a much heavier lift technology-advancement wise... but it'll get you a LOT of attention and a LOT of people badly wanting your vehicles... which is a good thing right when you're planning to massively scale up how many you're building.

Current NOA definitely does not hit stop vehicles. Some car was fully stopped in my lane on the hwy the other day and my car slowed down aggressively from 70mph way beyond the stopped car giving me plenty of time. Eventually I turned to another lane at around 25 mph but the car would have fully stopped with no problem like at a stop light.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I think Elon is just doing it for the memes. Unless there's a currency that can somehow show 69 and 420 in there somewhere, it's not goin to change. This gag is US specific.

Ok. But is that 69420 a real price? Because if it is a Canadian can go to the US and buy a model S 10,000 bucks cheaper after exchange in the US than Canada. Are you saying it’s a gag price?

 

[Singuy]

Ok. But is that 69420 a real price? Because if it is a Canadian can go to the US and buy a model S 10,000 bucks cheaper after exchange in the US than Canada. Are you saying it’s a gag price?

It's a real price for the U.S market. May change at any time, but for now it's a price just to take any thunder away from Lucid...or give them more advertisement. Either way Elon is having fun with this "competitor".

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It's a real price for the U.S market. May change at any time, but for now it's a price just to take any thunder away from Lucid...or give them more advertisement. Either way Elon is having fun with this "competitor".

wow. Might be worth it for a Canuck to find a new inventory car in the US, get it paid for, fly down and drive it home. 10 grand is 10 grand. Hmmmm

 

[Chocochip]

Some sort of friendly banter / competition with Lucid or even just wanting to stay top dog…

It seems to me that Elon insists on making sure that Tesla always has the best performance (0-60 times, ¼mile time, range, efficiency/weight) for the lowest price out of everything on the market, whether available now or only announced. Tesla cars have to be the best EVs. You may not be particularly fond of their looks or interior design or choice of materials or whatever, that’s subjective, but in terms of measurable parameters, Tesla is the best EV, and you can count on it! It adds a lot to the brand value.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The real question is, why is this in the news? So what. Why would the water authority even leak this to a paper, if true?

It's not news. If BMW miss a bill, is that in the news? I doubt it.

Look how TSLA split from the macros (QQQ) at 10:35 AM EDT. That's when the story hit the wires. Macros went up, but TSLA continued down until the split was about -1.2%

Note how TSLA lagged the macros for the rest of the main session into the Close? That's $5B in Mkt Cap extracted right there from a News hit-piece.

This is racketeering. I wonder if the German verson of the SEC will care.

 

[STARR X]

Hey, I am a 2012 Model S owner, TESLA investor and, at times, too much of a reader of this particular thread. I don’t get around in the other parts of this website too much. My Model S is beginning to act like your 7 year old laptop. Is there a thread in this site where this is discussed?

 

[bkp_duke]

Hey, I am a 2012 Model S owner, TESLA investor and, at times, too much of a reader of this particular thread. I don’t get around in the other parts of this website too much. My Model S is beginning to act like your 7 year old laptop. Is there a thread in this site where this is discussed?

If you haven't had the Tegra board replaced in your MCU, or the MCU replaced, you probably have a failing eMMC memory chip on the Tegra board in the MCU. It's a known problem, Tesla can repair it for you (for a fee).

Just search the forum for eMMC issues (black screen of death, etc.).

 

[Drumheller]

wow. Might be worth it for a Canuck to find a new inventory car in the US, get it paid for, fly down and drive it home. 10 grand is 10 grand. Hmmmm

U.S. / Canada border is currently closed due to COVID

 

[StealthP3D]

So not saying people are not sabotaging stuff at GF Berlin, but sometimes people Tesla does really stupid stuff.

I fixed that for you!