Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Yes and no.

Farting cars with snake jazz, boring tunnels, flamethrowers, satellite internet, mars.

If there's a clear path for an easy extra buck to fund other things they'll take it. A Tesla app store that works with neuralink devices seems like a possibility. (Neuralink in my mind being the disruptive tech that gets rid of phones and tablets. To be honest tho given neuralink is connected to your brain I think Elon is unlikely to integrate it with publicly listed companies where he has to answer to investors interests in profits. So who knows)

If neural link is "fleshed" out then the Tablets and phones are gone.

 

[Knightshade]

Has it improved greatly over the past 8 years they've been testing? Sure. Problem is Tesla just caught up to them in feature complete and then some and is rapidly gathering more data..

So I think there's a problem with looking at it this way.

Waymo and Tesla are going down very different paths. So "caught up" isn't really a good descriptor.



Waymo has Level 4 cars operating on public roads, giving the public rides in them as robotaxis, with no human driver in the vehicle.

Tesla does not.

Tesla has a very advanced L2 system that still requires a human to be officially doing the driving task with a LOT of aid from the system- and still requires the human to intervene sometimes (videos show this happening with the current FSD beta).

So in that regard Tesla is not "caught up" to Waymo.



On the other hand- Waymos system works in ONE city... with nearly perfect weather.

Outside that one area it doesn't work at all (for the public anyway, not getting into testing).


Teslas solution works everywhere (well, in the US for now anyway).

So Waymo has not "caught up" to Tesla in that regard.



The race isn't to "catch up" to the other.

The race is which of these comes first:

Waymo figures out a way to SCALE their one-city L4 solution to LOTS of cities (at the least- as this would be the best econ case for robotaxis... or to scale it up 'everywhere' for sale to car makers)

Tesla figures out a way to get their FSD safe/reliable enough for L4 operation.




From an economic perspective- if Waymo ends up stuck in a 'super-mapped-city-only' local maximum, to borrow a phrase from Elon, then it's possible they'll be able to scale enough to run a profitable RT business in big mapped cities. But that's about it. (And even then maybe no depending on cost of getting up and running in each new city).

Teslas pursuit of a much more general solution obviously has a LOT more economic upside if they get it working.... but it's also a MUCH harder task that requires solving for a LOT more weirdness in the real world.


But it's why 'caught up' or those "who is ahead in self driving' charts aren't terribly useful for discussion... these companies are going down very different routes, and will have very different milestones along the way.



One thing I really do like about Tesla here is they're willing to admit they got something wrong and start over once they realize they've done so (hence the re-write... which only goes back maybe 12-18 months, but we're now seeing far more progress than we had in years as a result)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Talking about an Apple EV and Waymo is fine, but all other Apple products don’t belong in this thread. Neither does Dick Tracy.

 

[Tslynk67]

restricted?

was she banned? or?

I'm in touch with Karen and it seems that Twitter decided she was a bot. She's followed all the procedures to reopen there account, but Twitter aren't responding.

I really sometimes if there's a $TSLAQ operative working in Twitter Support...

 

[Boomer19]

I'll look into it. I've heard about this concept before, but I would like some numbers.
In theory, this seems to make some sense, as the transition to solar and energy storage is rapidly increasing based on TSLA's Q3 2020 results. But how much is Tesla making off the auto-bidder? Are they charging a mark-up to the energy sold to the grid? Are they charging a subscription? How much? What is the average level of energy that is expected to be sold to the grid per household?
Without any of these metrics, it's hard to value this line of business.

just because it’s hard to value doesn’t mean the freight train isn’t coming down the tracks.

TE revenue constraints
- battery prod
- installing solar roof efficiently
- tile/panel efficiency (cost and edge over competition)

we already know the batteries are better. although i’d argue storage value/performance over competition isn’t as large as it is in cars, for obvious reasons - there’s not enough battery production and vehicle battery demand all the production capacity of the ‘best‘ batteries

i’m not battery expert so i’m not sure the ‘need’ for a 4680 in storage until there’s so many 4680s (and subsequent next iteration of that product) that fulfills auto, and there’s enough leftover for storage

with iron being used for lower range auto from shanghai/europe that may just be enough to free up TE to boost revs to 1b in q4...or get really close.

for the prediction thread i’ll toss one out:
q4 EG&S rev of 1bb with Cost of EG&S of 850mm

unlikely, maybe, but it doesn’t matter because it’s only a matter of time. this restructuring of battery supply chain we’ve seen over the last quarter will pay off as the pana lines in GF1 continue to progress, the introduction of the iron product, and the 3rd party partnerships allow not just more vehicles, but potentially (and hopefully) more energy storage. plus all progress on the ramp of 4680, shanghai, germany, and texas, just frees up more for TE, at least a percentage of that ramp (as existing auto lines mature, we still have backlogs of orders for CT and semi, and i really don’t think 3/Y are going anywhere for a while). but even say, 10% more battery production designated for TE will boost revs significantly. but it’s going to take more energy deployment to increase the efficiency and margin - that i’ll give you, because now the margins are slim in the generation and storage category. i’d suspect much of that cost is currently coming from the ‘generation‘ line item, which we don’t have insight

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't think we are seeing many challenging situations in any FSD videos yet. Here is a video of a Cruise presentation last year at Google Next that show clips of a few of these challenging situations in San Francisco--one of the more challenging urban environments you can find. Scroll to 3:40 in the video.

Pretty good that Cruise can handle situations with multiple cars blocking the lane, double- or triple-parked cars. Cruise received a permit from the California DMV just last week to remove the human backup drivers from their cars. This allows them to test level 4 autonomy (full self-driving under certain conditions, geo-fenced) on the streets of San Francisco.

Tesla of course has the advantage of much faster learning due to cars on the road, and has a good chance to be first in solving general full autonomy (vs. geo-fenced or other boundary conditions).

Btw. Reason for posting this here is that while to many of us it's clear Tesla is in the lead, the industry does not agree with that. The industry puts Cruise and Waymo in the lead with Tesla a challenger. See the 2019 Navigant Research autonomy leaderboard:

View attachment 602212

As for Tesla's data/real-world miles advantage: the counter argument from Cruise, NVIDIA, and others is that simulation can make up for a lot of real-world miles. This, plus the fact that Tesla FSD is still at level 3 (limited self-driving: vehicle will inform the driver when he or she must take over), is probably the main reason that you don't see analyst upgrades yet from this FSD beta release. I expect as soon as Tesla moves to level 4, the analysts are going to pay attention.

This graphic (which Elon already indicated as being "upside down") shows Apple as being ahead of Tesla. Apple has zero, zippo, zilch autonomous cars on the road.

So don't take what "industry thinks" too seriously.

 

[Tslynk67]

Ok, I bought 25 more at 415.68. But here’s the catch. I was out with friends and we enjoyed too many bottles of Cakebread Sauvignon blanc followed by a really big and lush California Cab from Caymus. I woke up Saturday morning and discovered I had plowed through a pint of Hagen-Dasz salted caramel ice cream and purchased 25 more shares of TSLA. Solid work by my brain’s autopilot.

All my best trades are when I'm drunk...

 

[Knightshade]

Apple has zero, zippo, zilch autonomous cars on the road..

That is not correct- they do have a fleet of autonomous test cars. (Note I'm making no claims to how GOOD the fleet is- but it absolutely exists and is on the road in testing)- the cars are Lexus hybrid SUVs.

Here's a story about their CA disengagement reports for 2019 for example
Apple greatly reduced autonomous vehicle testing in 2019, fleet of 23 cars drove only 7,500 miles | AppleInsider

 

[Destination]

No, (maybe 0.0001% chance). The idea behind a factory on each continent is to avoid shipping costs and reduce time from manufacture to payment. No logical reason for it to happen, and every new GF will use the most improved methods, so cars made from the latest factory will always be improved over cars made from the second latest.

Idk if I could pay 80k and get a crazy painted and 30% faster/longer range Y I would....

Berlin/Austin Y gonna Osborne Fremont Y maybe - battery day claims are substantial improvements. If halfway there it is still substantial.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What Elon thinks of startup BYD......

https://twitter.com/i/status/1320316311356977153

I kinda like the SP basing around $420 - $440....Just gonna make the next run up even bigger.

 

[Bet TSLA]

However, this isn't about Tesla, it's about Apple's EV development efforts. If their effort to develop an EV vaporized, that's fine. But don't deny that it did. I'm fine with your argument that you think I'm using the term "vaporware" too broadly because that argument has some merit and I don't want to argue semantics.

I don't have any argument about the reality of Apple's attempt to explore the EV space. Perhaps it was very serious. Perhaps they even spent billions on it (although I doubt it got that far). But they never said anything about it, never said there would be any product, so it couldn't possibly be "vaporware". The only thing I took exception to was the use of that term. Redefining words to mean something else is a standard FUD approach that we should really avoid here.

 

[Jack6591]

That’s funny right there...

Twitter

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I have to admit, I'm a huge tesla bull, think the company is amazing, unstoppable etc, think my investment is very safe, and likely to go up a lot in the next year or two...

But the FSB beta roll-out HAS suprised me. Its much, much better than I expected (judging by videos). I've seen it slow down for speed bumps, drive at night-time, during the day, navigate roundabouts, loads of stuff I thought was a long way off.
I simply think that people have hyped up FSD (not just tesla, buy waymo etc), SO MUCH over the last year or two, that a lot of people in the media and the competition and wall street are just not bothering to watch what we are watching.

This is a HUGE step forward for the company's valuation. I don't really care that much about autopilot as an investor, but others do, and there is a massive disruption happening here. If a huge chunk of lyft and uber stock doesnt get sold and converted to tsla stock soon, its just proof nobody is paying attention.

Tempted to short both.

 

[CHGolferJim]

View attachment 602132 Weekend OT but I had to share. I welcomed a new Tesla to our family this week - a 2010 Roadster. So fun to drive and would not have been able to purchase it without the investment help from everyone here on this forum. Thank you! View attachment 602129

What’s your bet on the cost and reliability of these old Roadsters these days. Would love one myself.

 

[printf42]

Idk if I could pay 80k and get a crazy painted and 30% faster/longer range Y I would....

Berlin/Austin Y gonna Osborne Fremont Y maybe - battery day claims are substantial improvements. If halfway there it is still substantial.

No, higher spec could command price tag(possibly as post sales upgrades), for same price you would get similar spec.

There are ways for Tesla to manage Osborne effect of Berlin model Y if Austin is going to lag behind for too long.

During the recent Model 3 refresh, Tesla demonstrated they are well aware of Osborne effect and can effectively manage it .

 

[LTC_RRR]

Surely it could be automated following feedback from sensors in shocks or steering. Surely it wouldn't be too difficult to Retrieve vision data from x seconds prior to the sensor reading then compare it to instances where there was no similar reading to determine what to identify.

I tagged this as helpful, although it is probably not helpful to the poor schmuck whose car suspension and tires took on a pothole for the team!

 

[LTC_RRR]

Afaik. The difference between Mobileye and Tesla is quality of data and what that data is used for. Mobileye plans to use their data to continuously update HD-maps that their self driving cars rely on. Tesla is using their data to train an AI that doesn't have to rely on HD-maps to be able to drive.

Tesla's strategy is more difficult to develop and requires higher quality data but once it's mature enough for commercial use it will likely be far easier and cheaper to both scale and maintain.

Link to Mobileye’s Road Experience Management Technology: The Why and How of Making HD Maps for Automated Vehicles | Intel Newsroom

I believe experience will tell us that Tesla's Dojo and its boost to the productivity of labeling will turn out to be the big differentiator.

 

[Boomer19]

I'm in touch with Karen and it seems that Twitter decided she was a bot. She's followed all the procedures to reopen there account, but Twitter aren't responding.

I really sometimes if there's a $TSLAQ operative working in Twitter Support...

twitter is shameful. but i don’t want to go down that road here. best of luck to KR!

 

[AudubonB]

As a follow-up to the earlier-mentioned apparent bias of the FSD-beta towards those with high-volume YouTube accounts, a similar question:

Does anyone know or can anyone determine if there are any beta-testers who are NOT located in California?


From your average grumpy Superchargeless Alaskan......

 

[Carl Raymond]

In this list I think you should distinguish between "use LiDAR" and "rely on LiDAR as the primary sensor" or whatever. I mean, Tesla uses radar, and couldn't you just use LiDAR as a high-resolution radar? Basically, use it as an auxiliary or sanity-check sensor rather than to replace the camera as the main sensor. I don't think that's out of the question.

Technically true, but even if just using lidar as secondary, it likely puts them out of the race economically. Evolution produced creatures with good vision and also bats. I know of no creatures with good vision AND bat capabilities. It’s not efficient.