Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

Technically true, but even if just using lidar as secondary, it likely puts them out of the race economically. Evolution produced creatures with good vision and also bats. I know of no creatures with good vision AND bat capabilities. It’s not efficient.

 

[Buckminster]

All my best trades are when I'm drunk...

FTFY

 

[EVMeister]

All my best trades are when I'm drunk...

You should probably get drunk more often, if that's true. You can't afford not to!

 

[Krugerrand]

It’s all speculation. Warren Redlich did a video today based on his estimates of KWh consumed by each product (incl. energy products) knowing how many GWh of batteries Tesla and partners combined can produce each year, assuming cost per KWh, and came up with a scenario that would put TSLA stock at $40,000 by 2030. I always feel great about the future after watching his videos.

$40,000 carry the 1’s, 9’s and 0’s — ****!

 

[JRD1]

As a follow-up to the earlier-mentioned apparent bias of the FSD-beta towards those with high-volume YouTube accounts, a similar question:

Does anyone know or can anyone determine if there are any beta-testers who are NOT located in California?


From your average grumpy Superchargeless Alaskan......

Looks like 9-10 states confirmed so far

Twitter

 

[Stretch2727]

My wife started reading some of your posts today as she wanted to see what I spend a lot of time reading.

She wants you guys to know she took over the Model 3 Performance. I hardly get to drive it even though it was supposed to be my birthday present. I just tell her TSLA paid for her toy.

 

[AZRI11]

Anyone knows how @KarenRei is doing?

She lobbed a bunch of nukes on the TSLAQ crowd on Twitter over the past couple of week that were as entertaining as effective, now her Twitter account is restricted since the 17th and I can't track any online presence anywhere since then.

She has an alternate account. Not hard to find. I'm not disclosing it.

 

[EinSV]

Looks like 9-10 states confirmed so far

Twitter

Based on the info we have so far, my guess is that most states have Beta users under NDA, with only a few being approved to post videos. To make the most of this initial Beta, it's hard to see why they would release in Rhode Island, Connecticut and Wisconsin and not other states, for example. This is just a guess, obviously.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

It’s all speculation. Warren Redlich did a video today based on his estimates of KWh consumed by each product (incl. energy products) knowing how many GWh of batteries Tesla and partners combined can produce each year, assuming cost per KWh, and came up with a scenario that would put TSLA stock at $40,000 by 2030. I always feel great about the future after watching his videos.

Now doing a live chat and Q&A expanding on and explaining this, and other things.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It’s all speculation. Warren Redlich did a video today based on his estimates of KWh consumed by each product (incl. energy products) knowing how many GWh of batteries Tesla and partners combined can produce each year, assuming cost per KWh, and came up with a scenario that would put TSLA stock at $40,000 by 2030. I always feel great about the future after watching his videos.

Wow! I wonder how many countries Krugerrand will own if that happens.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Looks like 9-10 states confirmed so far

Twitter

They need to get some testers up in Seattle. If anyone here gets it, they need to take it on Mercer, Denny Ave/Dennys triangle.........and Pikes Market. In fact they should daily run it through Pikes Market area because while it's chaotic, there are actual streets. Would provide great data to Tesla....even though I'm sure it'll have a lot of interventions at first

 

[capster]

Nah I don't think we'll have to wait until Robotaxi's are actually generating money for Tesla's marketcap to get a re-evaluation. Let's not forget that Tesla releasing FSD build to public(while still requiring driver's paying attention) will result in Tesla recognizing I think about 800 million in deferred revenue + they'll be able to recognize 100% of each FSD transaction on new vehicles. So Tesla's margins are going to explode higher. Then add in subscription model in Q1 2021 which will likely double the FSD adoption rate and you're getting another margin boost. This is all before Robotaxi's.

So I think you'll see a major reassessment of Tesla's value when FSD goes out to public/subscription model release and then another reassessment when Robotaxi's release comes near. Anyone thinking they'll be able to buy Tesla stock after Robotaxi's are out in the wild and somehow get in before the stock explodes higher from Robotaxi revenue will miss out on a lot of gains

For years I’ve been amongst the most bullish here on FSD. However I don’t agree with you on 100% FSD revenue recognition today.

The beta build requires more, not less, vigilance on the part of the driver. Human drivers are arguably doing more work and are creating value by contributing to the training of Tesla’s FSD software. I’ve no problem with that, but it’s not like these people are getting the full value of FSD at this point.

The full value of FSD is realized when the cognitive load of the human driver goes to zero and they get back the time and attention that they would be spending driving.

Now Tesla might take some percentage of the deferred and new revenue — perhaps even a large percentage — but not all.

Also, it may be useful for Tesla to defer recognizing some of the deferred revenue in case they need it more in some later quarter.

Further, I’m not inclined to think the market will understand and appreciate where Tesla is with FSD more just because Tesla just changes their numbers with FSD revenue recognition. The opposite could be the case.

I tend to agree with the position that many will continue to be oblivious until the reality of FSD bites them on the a$$. (Not that I’d bet on timing that. At some point folks will understand that Elon delivers and won’t wait so long to invest. Me, I’ll just keep holding)

 

[ammulder]

Technically true, but even if just using lidar as secondary, it likely puts them out of the race economically. Evolution produced creatures with good vision and also bats. I know of no creatures with good vision AND bat capabilities. It’s not efficient.

I mean, OK on evolution and all, but I'm pretty sure my Tesla has a radar in it. In fact, there was just a story that they're upgrading the radar. Why would they do that if there was no value in any autopilot sensors other than cameras (vision)?

 

[NicoV]

I'm in touch with Karen and it seems that Twitter decided she was a bot. She's followed all the procedures to reopen there account, but Twitter aren't responding.

I really sometimes if there's a $TSLAQ operative working in Twitter Support...

I stopped using Twitter long ago, it just wasn’t worth my time.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

For years I’ve been amongst the most bullish here on FSD. However I don’t agree with you on 100% FSD revenue recognition today.

The beta build requires more, not less, vigilance on the part of the driver. Human drivers are arguably doing more work and are creating value by contributing to the training of Tesla’s FSD software. I’ve no problem with that, but it’s not like these people are getting the full value of FSD at this point.

The full value of FSD is realized when the cognitive load of the human driver goes to zero and they get back the time and attention that they would be spending driving.

Now Tesla might take some percentage of the deferred and new revenue — perhaps even a large percentage — but not all.

Also, it may be useful for Tesla to defer recognizing some of the deferred revenue in case they need it more in some later quarter.

Further, I’m not inclined to think the market will understand and appreciate where Tesla is with FSD more just because they change their numbers with FSD revenue recognition. The opposite could be the case.

I tend to agree with the position that they’ll continue to be oblivious until the reality of FSD bites them on the a$$. (Not that I’d bet on timing that. At some point folks will understand that Elon delivers. I’ll just keep holding)

Tesla has already said they expect to recognize the remaining deferred revenue at the end of this year if they release feature complete FSD...even though it still would require driver monitoring.

So its just not my thoughts. I'm going off of what Tesla themselves have said

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

So again, the idea Tesla is only waiting on regulators somewhere to "allow" something that's already allowed in a number of states simply ain't so.

That’s so obvious it’s not even worth stating. Is anyone actually arguing that’s what is keeping Tesla from releasing FSD? If anyone is arguing this they should probably do it in a different thread.

 

[BornToFly]

It’s all speculation. Warren Redlich did a video today based on his estimates of KWh consumed by each product (incl. energy products) knowing how many GWh of batteries Tesla and partners combined can produce each year, assuming cost per KWh, and came up with a scenario that would put TSLA stock at $40,000 by 2030. I always feel great about the future after watching his videos.

I really enjoyed the video. It seems like the middle green curve should be easily achievable. It makes me feel better about the covered calls I bought back (at a profit) on Thursday. I would rather take a little bit of a margin loan for living expenses in 2 years if necessary, then sell my shares before they increase another 10X in the not too distant future.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Technically true, but even if just using lidar as secondary, it likely puts them out of the race economically. Evolution produced creatures with good vision and also bats. I know of no creatures with good vision AND bat capabilities. It’s not efficient.

Actually nature did and the creatures are called bats. Surprise! The old saying "blind as a bat" has no merit, bats actually have outstanding vision. Right up there with birds of prey if I remember correctly.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I'm in touch with Karen and it seems that Twitter decided she was a bot. She's followed all the procedures to reopen there account, but Twitter aren't responding.

I really sometimes if there's a $TSLAQ operative working in Twitter Support...

Just talk her into coming back here. Please.

 

[Causalien]

Wow! I wonder how many countries Krugerrand will own if that happens.

We should band together and buy a country at one point.
Tired of dealing with gas guzzlers.