Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"News Update After Launch of NASA's SpaceX Crew-1 Mission to the International Space Station - YouTube"
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Depending on Nio. Cintron Research just stuck them so I am expecting some buying the dip in the am and then another day of Nio sell off. We may see a transition from Nio profit takers going back into Tesla. You know how people are, they sell on red days and buy on green days. If Nio is red, people will be dumping, if Tesla gaps up, people will be buying.
Mo City
Active Member
I repeat: IMO, the market doesn't give a care about worsening COVID stats. The sole concern is lockdowns that dampen economic activity.
One of Biden's guys said this morning they don't support another nationwide lockdown. Maybe that statement offers TSLA a boost. Maybe not.
Nationwide lockdown is not even a thing as it's at the discretion of the individual states.
Who knows, maybe a "big and focused" stimulus is coming soon.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
With T now seeming to accept a transition begrudgingly AND a 2024 run in the cards, we should see major stimulus real soon.
This wave(or continuation of the last) is going to real bad economically, but it's finite. With multiple effective vaccines, the only variable is how many die between now and May. The forward-looking market doesn't really care what that number is.
Nov 20 calls expire this week, obviously. I think we'll see a pretty strong effort by MM's to keep this under $500 this week. Maybe they feel good enough by Tues to press for <$450 by Friday.
This wave(or continuation of the last) is going to real bad economically, but it's finite. With multiple effective vaccines, the only variable is how many die between now and May. The forward-looking market doesn't really care what that number is.
Nov 20 calls expire this week, obviously. I think we'll see a pretty strong effort by MM's to keep this under $500 this week. Maybe they feel good enough by Tues to press for <$450 by Friday.
I randomly decided to tally up twitter followers of major car companies last year (I'm only including those with at least 1 million followers). Not very scientific, but I think it gives a little bit of insight into brand value & future demand. Draw your own conclusions.
Sudre
Active Member
Looking over the progressing open interest in options, it appears Calls are being bought better than Puts. To me it is most notable on Thursday of last week for strikes expiring this Friday. Some Calls at the 400 strike were actually bought back. This indicates max pain is moving just above $400 and it shows the general impressions of the market is the SP is going to move up. This doesn't say what will happen but more what is believed will happen. With this continued low volume THEY will have control no matter what the general market thinks. Hopefully that low volume heats up this week.
I have attached last Thursday and Fridays OI for this Friday. My screen grab was a few pixels off but you can clearly see the increase in Call buying above $400 and the minor increases in Put buying. (Place them in a fold and toggle between them) It will be interesting to examine the OI Monday to see if the trend continued during Fridays shopping.
At least that is my impression. Let everyone know if your's differs.
I have attached last Thursday and Fridays OI for this Friday. My screen grab was a few pixels off but you can clearly see the increase in Call buying above $400 and the minor increases in Put buying. (Place them in a fold and toggle between them) It will be interesting to examine the OI Monday to see if the trend continued during Fridays shopping.
At least that is my impression. Let everyone know if your's differs.
Attachments
One of the problems with this "Lame Duck" phase is things seem to be drifting at present.
Biden can't do much, and Trump doesn't seem to have a focus, beyond trying to reverse the election result.
Can the congress step into the breach, provide some leadership and get some stimulus passed?
2 months of letting things drift is a wasted opportunity.
The US government waste an opportunity?
Balderdash! Why, the very concept makes my pyloric valve spasm!
Well at least there was some kind of acknowledgement of the covid problem from the rose garden press conference and there was a tweet about stimulus..baby steps.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Well, I'm out of the biz, having retired ten years ago now. But my experience is that big-M Methodologies come and go. And it was always a surprise to me just how little really changed. Perhaps Agile development is different, but every Methodology I ever saw was pretty much a way to try to avoid needing great programmers to produce great software. In the end though, no Methodology ever produced great software from a team of mediocrities.
Tesla, to veer back on topic, does not hesitate to hire great people. But most companies find them too hard to manage and would rather have people who do as they're told. People who do as they're told do better with a Methodology. And they never produce anything great.
And yeah, I'm sure there are exceptions. There always are.
Another critical component is, are people solving the right problem with the right tools?
I'm not sure if the Methodology helps with that, it would be interesting to know.
To keep it relevant, a key to the success of Tesla is they always seem to be solving the right problems, 3 big examples of that are Supercharging, FSD and battery Day.
At the same time we have seen other car makers conclude the key to success is having something on the car that makes it look different so customers know it is electric.
If people conclude running cars with hydrogen fuel cells is the answer, no amount of methodology will save them.
I've seen projects doomed to fail before they even recruited a team, and successful projects with all the right tools, and the right people.
IMO the difference is, people making the decisions fully understand the problem, and what it will take to solve it.
Tom Nash's take on the ARK Invest/Resolute dustup:
Must suck to be the social media guy at the other automakers:
Elon to SM guy: hey - so how are we doing on Twitter?
SM guy: +55% YoY
Elon: :thumbsup: & posts a meme on Twitter to his 40MM followers, because he can
Källenius (Mercedes) / Blume (Porsche) / Farley (Ford) to SM guy: please present a 37-page analysis on our social media reach, with Twitter as the case example.
SM guy: ".....",
CEOs: ")(§%)="=§//(%/="/§%= !",
SM guy: at least we're better than Jaguar"
CEOs "we have decided to appoint board member XYZ to form a committee to decide how grow our social media reach, with the key goal of surpassing Elon by 2025"
SM guy: "I quit!"
Do you sump up all Twitter accounts for each brand?
Example: bmw + bmwgroup + bmwusa + BMW_SA + bmwfrance + BMWi_France...
A French twitter user would probably follow the French BMW account, while only the main, US-focus Tesla account is active (cf https://twitter.com/tesla_france)
Judging by the # of posts here, volume is going to be low today.
FSD costs 7500 Euros (~8900$) in Germany. 1k$ cheaper than in the US, This tells me that they are looking very closely at the FSD take rate regionally and adjusting according to that. I would assume that FSD take rate in Europe is much lower than in the USA.
2000$ last increment was a very strong statement about their take rate. If they come out and announce a fleet-wide FSD release, it would improve the take rate further, and be a great booster for the financials. I am now getting ready for that uptick
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FSD costs 7500 Euros (~8900$) in Germany. 1k$ cheaper than in the US, This tells me that they are looking very closely at the FSD take rate regionally and adjusting according to that. I would assume that FSD take rate in Europe is much lower than in the USA.
2000$ last increment was a very strong statement about their take rate. If they come out and announce a fleet-wide FSD release, it would improve the take rate further, and be a great booster for the financials. I am now getting ready for that uptick
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This is delicious news. Finally Tesla can drop all pretences and make better margins that are correlated with their actual demand
Tesla stops selling $35,000 Model 3 with new 2021 model year refresh - Electrek
Tesla stops selling $35,000 Model 3 with new 2021 model year refresh - Electrek
Well summarized, again, by SMR here:
I remain in complete and utter shock that Toyota is still going down this rabbit hole of stupidity and absurdity. Elon called H2 out in 2015, and I see nothing that could have possibly changed this thinking--this remains beyond stupid on Toyota's part and I am dumbfounded.
Is it possible the fossil fuel interests have this much influence?
Initial results from the Moderna vaccine show a 95% success rate. Hopefully no major issues will arise going forward and once the balls rolling with millions getting vaccinated things can start to go back to normal by the middle of next year.
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