Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Let's keep it rational people!

Nov 30th is two half trading days away and S&P could conceivably do anything regarding the inclusion plan for December. I think there's a 99.8% chance they keep it to one of the two aforementioned options, but you never know. This game is rigged after all and there are no real rules.

I bring this up not to plan for the possibility of that .2% becoming reality, but to think about what the front-runners and day traders might do to plan for it. If I'm some unimaginative asshole day trader, with zero allegiance to any stock or any understanding of their underlying value, what's my chart-based move on Friday? Well I sell obviously!

Smart traders who got in to front-run when the inclusion plan was announced are up what.....~$150 right now? I think a fair share of them won't want to risk their entire pile of gains on a bizarre S&P decision Monday, no matter how unlikely. The downside of selling is you lose maybe 2-6% of additional gains after a ho-hum decision, but you protect and lock in the 40% you're already sitting on.

This could cross more than a few minds over the next two days and we could see a sharp selloff Friday/Monday with a massive rebound Tuesday. Highly highly unlikely, but just trying to envision a rational worst case scenario that makes sense through all the champagne bubbles. I would be very careful playing with call options for this week. And maybe have some dry powder ready.

I thing @engle laid out the options pretty succinctly.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

I think the S&P's strategy is playing out pretty much as they (and I) expected. They really did fear an infinity squeeze if the normal inclusion process was followed - current shareholders would hold, front runners/tracking funds would start buying immediately, closely followed by index funds. Throw in shorts and hedges covering and a massive volume and price spike occurs.

The long run up we’re in now allows tracking funds and shorts to get business done in a controlled manner - nice steady ramp up for a week or two, with only index funds left out until inclusion date(s). Then still probably a spike or two, but hopefully avoiding most of the positive feedback loop that would make an infinity squeeze chaotic and unpredictable.

 

[lafrisbee]

A Thanksgiving riddle for my friends. I’m sure you are familiar with a Turducken. What do you call a short inside of a bear inside of Jim Chanos?

This is easy..a turdking

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I am disappointed. I have never gotten a call from Ameritrade or Ally trying to "manage" my money.

What's your number....I know a guy....

 

[kanweg]

I am disappointed. I have never gotten a call from Ameritrade or Ally trying to "manage" my money.

Don’t feel bad, it could be worse. I’m the only person Curt Renz never had on his show (at least, that is the impression I get from his posts that start with who he had on his show.)

 

[ABC2D]

With the markets closing 1pm this Friday and Thanksgiving during which many travel or off, do you guys thing we could see lighter trading volume, hence easier to manipulate the price, therefore, maybe a better buying opportunity than today? I'm positioned pretty well as of now but still have some money do deploy and debating whether to just buy today or wait until Friday

 

[AudubonB]

A Thanksgiving riddle for my friends. I’m sure you are familiar with a Turducken. What do you call a short inside of a bear inside of Jim Chanos?

A Nikolapdog?

 

[dgodfrey]

Only on this forum


My returns calculations used to always be based on the 'rule of 72,' i.e., divide 72 by your rate of return to figure out how long it will take you to double your money (e.g., 9% will double your money in 8 years, 12% will double your money in 6 years).

Only on this forum do we talk about 50% returns, doubling your money in less than a year, etc. So awesome.

Yeah, I'm going with this years returns. 700%. Didn't know Gazillion was a real number.

 

[FS_FRA]

With the markets closing 1pm this Friday and Thanksgiving during which many travel or off, do you guys thing we could see lighter trading volume, hence easier to manipulate the price, therefore, maybe a better buying opportunity than today? I'm positioned pretty well as of now but still have some money do deploy and debating whether to just buy today or wait until Friday

I think volume is pretty light as it is. 38.8MM so far today, average / day around 53MM.

 

[Krugerrand]

Survivorship bias is a real thing. We tend to think that since someone did something great once, they have a better chance of doing it again. You see someone making 47 million from 1 million, but you didn't see the others who maybe made similar bets just before Elon smoked a blunt on a podcast.

Someone did great in the stock market once and then are lauded, but subsequent moves don't work out as well (ahem Jim Chanos). Most mutual funds can't even outperform index tracking funds over a long time frame.

What worries me for Tesla investors who have good or great success with the stock get overconfident. Are you going to be able to apply the same strategies again with another stock? Right now I would think over decades I would get more conservative with at least some investments because right now I have to think I was more lucky than good.

That's why I respect folks who show repeated success. Elon Musk's repeated success shows he's the real deal vs. really anyone who has founded only one successful company - easy to be lucky.

@StealthP3D seemingly has had multiple repeated successes with long-term investments with at last a handful of stocks.

Do you know anyone who has had sustained success over decades with options?

Like what you said. I’ll just point out, though, if you were good enough the first time around you don’t need to repeat anything.

I’m literally one and done with TSLA. And yeah, I’m thinking I’m a genius having gotten in early and ridden this puppy through every pothole and sty this side of my mountain without blinking.

But you do make a valid point.

 

[StealthP3D]

FWIW, I’m not taking any gains. I ride out the volatility. This one might last a while, but it’s still euphoria, so corrections will come....sometime.

Corrections come even if gains are based on fundamentals. But I do agree with you, the stock has gotten a bit ahead of itself, at least by traditional metrics. But this company can grow revenues and margins so quickly - so maybe not. It makes a lot of sense to pay extra for growth that has a very high likelihood of being very outsized. In any case, I'm not selling any either. One thing I know is stocks can go higher than one might think they have any right. And keep going after relatively small corrections. They all make corrections - you just never know when or how big.

I'm guessing we are probably close to a correction of unknown size but I'm not going to place a bet on that guess because I'm in for the long-haul. Unless, of course, I see something develop with the company (not the share price) that I don't like.

 

[StealthP3D]

Like what you said. I’ll just point out, though, if you were good enough the first time around you don’t need to repeat anything.

Ha! You haven't seen how my wife can spend!

 

[woodisgood]

Now I'm feeling pretty good about enthusiastically encouraging my girlfriend to buy 45 shares of Tesla (I have a little less than that). I cannot believe how much FUD I get from friends who JUST DON'T GET IT no matter how many times I explain things. Their loss.

Am I crazy for wanting to sell my lightly-used P3D- to buy more TSLA? I barely drive it during the pandemic. Hmmmm. Decisions, decisions.

As with all things, balance. I have a tenant in a rental property who gave up home ownership in part/mostly so he could put a lot of money into TSLA. I'm sure he has done astoundingly well. But then he's upset when he can't change the house to his liking as he could if he owned it.

Only you can decide what brings you joy and not everything needs to be a cold, financial calculation (but it can be, if you'd like).

 

[BornToFly]

When I think about how they were pushing the stock down in pre-market this morning, trying to trigger stop losses and panic profit taking, I just laugh.

 

[Zero CO2]

Tesla teardown expert breaks down the new 4680 Battery Pack

may have been posted already but i am too far behind reading 100's page to look so here you go

pretty interesting Munro speculates on the 4680 battery pack design ... this will be another game changer

 

[enzo]

Imagine how much retail buying will occur after Tesla shareholders inform/lecture/goad/harass their extended families over Thanksgiving!

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - hour ago: Tesla launches new microsite to boost hiring for its battery cell division: Tera is the new Giga - Electrek

 

[Tslynk67]

Picking up pennies: sold 12 CCs (11/27 $570) netting ~$5k. Not advice.

Brave

 

[Causalien]

Surely you must be joking. If you had the magical ability to buy low and sell higher twice a day for a couple of years consistently you would become one of the richest people on this planet.

LOL, wow. God of 8 ball finally sent another prophet to replace me. I could get used to waking up at noon.

 

[traxila]

Glad to see that despite Market Watch’ desperate try to make a big thing about this Model X recall (and including Model Y in the story for the more dramatic headline: “Tesla is recalling more than 9000 Model Y and Model X vehicles”) the stock is not bulging.

Btw, I experienced this issue of bad adhesive on my own Model X in July. The top glass blew off while driving on the freeway. I happily paid over $700 to have it repaired by Tesla Services, thereby contributing to them booking a record $581M in Q3 services revenue

Mulder, I drink the TeslaAid relentlessly but you win!

Happy to pay seven Benjamin’s to fix the roof of your car blowing off?! Wow!

Are you going to get reimbursed now? Wondering...

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - hour ago: Tesla Stock Rises Again, Creating Another Problem for Index Funds

Excerpt:

That means Tesla will likely go into the S&P 500 as the index's fifth or sixth largest company. And the more valuable it gets, the more shares index funds have to buy. And the more stock index funds have to buy, the higher traders will bid up Tesla shares in anticipation of the massive buying spree.