Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EnzoXYZ]

I don't think we can completely discount the small possibility that the S&P might decide that, due to overwhelming feedback from the investor community, they will be adding TSLA in two equal tranches, 50% on December 21, 2020 and 50% X months later.

As an investor, I do try to limit my exposure to the unexpected. I'm just having a hard time imagining that the S&P is going to make the index funds buy TSLA in the middle of a squeeze. While it's possible, it doesn't seem to fit neatly into my worldview.

If they announce a 50/50 I believe it’ll be closer to 50/60+. This right who would sell after the first tranche knowing more buying will occur again. 50/50 is going to be worse IMHO. SP committee messed up delaying the inevitable.

 

[hobbes]

Realized that IF TSLA keeps going up until Dec 21 at the same rate it has since S&P announcement, it will have more than doubled . Just saying. Not advice.

...and in the last 12 months it is up by a factor of 8.7. I find it increasingly hard to actually grasp the magnitude of this.

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm curious of what @Kruggerand thinks about this review: https://www.washingtonpost.com/ente...49983a-2db5-11eb-860d-f7999599cbc2_story.html

I'm aware of the numerical answer by mice. Just a wild guess, is it 24?

 

[Christine69420]

I'm glad you have more than one song to choose from, @Curt Renz - in case we have more occasions to play them before Christmas. Don't want to get tired of these. Or do I?

I wonder if we can match the $575 from today's premarket before close?

I bet THEY delayed 575 until just after close to tease me!

 

[Spacep0d]

After lurking here for months I wanted to celebrate my first TSLA purchase going from Short to Long and went ahead and signed up.

Y'all are a ton of fun and have become one of my daily go-to resources. Along with Teslarati, SMR (love you all), Tesla Daily, and of course Nasdaq and Fidelity sites.

Not to mention my SpaceX addiction that led me to Tesla wanting a piece of anything Elon I could get my grubby mits on.

With any luck I'll be unexpectedly retiring next year. Fingers crossed and HODL.

The fact that Elon is CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX is not lost on many of us retail investors or those who are fans of Tesla's products. That ability to conceptualize, engineer, and execute with tenacious courage is 'the right stuff'.

 

[Causalien]

The larger the problem, the bigger the opportunity.

Climate change is the largest problem (existential threat) of our lifetimes. Elon has an amazing way of applying first principles to solve problems. This is why Tesla is the largest holding in my portfolio. I, like @Krugerrand, have held on for years of craziness with just stupid a smirk on my face.

It's weird that in my local friend group. The hate on Elon are real and the voices of the hate usually drowns out those in support. Elon's behavior seems to outrank problems from big oil and Climate change.

 

[dl003]

I don't think that's physically possible. Perhaps a pre-buying-window SP of $800-$900 by Dec 12th might cause such a dip then lower recovery on the actual inclusion buying. It's just very very unlikely we'll see enough people willing to sell at any price before inclusion.

I think the further along we are, the more likely you will be correct. 3 weeks till the official date plus considerable uncertainty regarding SP's decision means traders can still be in for a nasty next week if someone gets too excited. Once next week is over and the decision is favorable, I think we'll see the real firework.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Dont know if this is a no go. I do it anyway.

ATH.

 

[woodisgood]

After lurking here for months I wanted to celebrate my first TSLA purchase going from Short to Long and went ahead and signed up.

Y'all are a ton of fun and have become one of my daily go-to resources. Along with Teslarati, SMR (love you all), Tesla Daily, and of course Nasdaq and Fidelity sites.

Not to mention my SpaceX addiction that led me to Tesla wanting a piece of anything Elon I could get my grubby mits on.

With any luck I'll be unexpectedly retiring next year. Fingers crossed and HODL.

Did I read that correctly? You were short TSLA?

Someone get Neuralink on the phone...this is a neuroscience breakthrough. We can grow brain!

 

[Pezpunk]

It's weird that in my local friend group. The hate on Elon are real and the voices of the hate usually drowns out those in support. Elon's behavior seems to outrank problems from big oil and Climate change.

i actively avoid mentioning him. I talk about "Tesla's vision" not "Elon's vision". Makes me sound like less of a leghumper and hopefully subconsciously avoids some negative emotional bias in the people i'm talking to.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Did I read that correctly? You were short TSLA?

Someone get Neuralink on the phone...this is a neuroscience breakthrough. We can grow brain!

I think they meant that their unrealized gains went from short to long, as in been holding for over a year. That's how I read it

 

[Tslynk67]

As theta decays, his bet loses $100k daily! Need to have some serious brass ones to endure watching that.

On the flip side, it's probably rising 6 or 7-figures every day with all the increases the SP has been showing! Culminating with a final gain of $1.5M for every $4 above 700 that TSLA gains ($37.5M if the stock reaches 800)! I think that's what his point was about it being wrong for him to NOT make that trade (risk reward trade-off too skewed towards the reward).

The thing is... when I buy a (monthly/LEAP) calls, it's rather intuitive - the SP is/has been held down and the future looks bright, with lots of catalysts and shiny things, and inevitably it works-out, anywhere from 3x to 220x (to date).

But here you are with actual numbers and projections. Where do you get those from? Only tool I've seen is Long call calculator: Purchase call options, but that's not the easiest beast to divine.

 

[adiggs]

The short answer would be that a somewhat predictable, sustained rise in SP each day over 5 days with relatively low volume (e.g. 3-5% per day) is less likely to increase IV compared to a single day spike of 20% with high volume. IV is all about unpredictability and a lack of consistency.

This is also an example, to me, of how retail investors studying a single stock and developing a deep understanding of business drivers and stuff going on in a company, can outperform the market.

In this specific case, that predictability and consistency is due to something we can identify and trade on, but is external to the math. Anybody trading on the math is (MHO) getting themselves in deep right now.


I guess a more technical description is that we expect realized IV to exceed theoretical IV (which is what the calculated IV is on each option - it represents what the market expects the IV to be, based on what the option premium is at).

 

[Krugerrand]

The larger the problem, the bigger the opportunity.

Climate change is the largest problem (existential threat) of our lifetimes. Elon has an amazing way of applying first principles to solve problems. This is why Tesla is the largest holding in my portfolio. I, like @Krugerrand, have held on for years of craziness with just stupid a smirk on my face.

There is nothing stupid about the smirk.

 

[wipster]

i actively avoid mentioning him. I talk about "Tesla's vision" not "Elon's vision". Makes me sound like less of a leghumper and hopefully subconsciously avoids some negative emotional bias in the people i'm talking to.

Yeah, I try hard to do that too, but it's difficult. I do really love Elon more and more giving his thanks and congratulations to the "team" be it Tesla, SpaceX, or the increasing number of other firms under his purview. That in my opinion is a number one sign of a good leader!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Sure, but TSLA does not have that many doublings left, if you start from a small sum. No matter how bullish you are. I too have a smaller account, so I'm bullish on TSLA, but even at $4T market cap, I won't be able to retire on it. Womp womp.

There is a path to 10x from here in 10 years. Maybe 5x is more reasonable which is still amazing return compared to an index.

 

[Paul_SF]

It's weird that in my local friend group. The hate on Elon are real and the voices of the hate usually drowns out those in support. Elon's behavior seems to outrank problems from big oil and Climate change.

Are they also against Evolution, by any chance?

Elon said before, even today, that we are evolved hydrogen.

That might explain the behavior of your local friends. /s

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm curious of what @Kruggerand thinks about this review: https://www.washingtonpost.com/ente...49983a-2db5-11eb-860d-f7999599cbc2_story.html

I'm aware of the numerical answer by mice. Just a wild guess, is it 24?

It’s very wordy.

 

[Mike Smith]

We should start a support thread for those of us suffering through feelings of guilt about 2020 being the best year of their life..

 

[Nocturnal]

I see the youtubers that predict TSLA SP based solely on all the technical metrics. And they are so sure when they draw the future... but even one of them has TSLA going to $640 and then "crashing way down." But their Bullish case is going to $800 after that.
I guess technical metrics aren't the "story." but they have to be based on some "proof"?

Technical metrics - artist interpretation

If it were real and they understood it, they wouldn't be spending time creating Youtube videos.

We should start a support thread for those of
us suffering through feelings of guilt about 2020 being the best year of their life..

We talked about charity upthread. That should be enough to absolve you of that guilt. 2020 was my best year ever financially, but it still sucked the big one in the net.