Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustMe]

I would agree with you - EXCEPT that too much banter/ irrelevant posts make it nearly impossible to "skim" as you say for relevant material - or maybe I need to take a crash course in speed reading/ speed skimming.

PS. And what's the story with Naflaus - she/ he's posting very interesting notes on .... Twitter - not here ??? why was he/she banned or why did he/ she leave? can't we bring him /her back? Even the https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/moderators-choice-posts-of-particular-merit.140611/ thread has stalled mid October.

She left after a dispute with moderators over “off-topic” posts. Not banned. Folks have tried to coax her back to no avail.

the signal/noise does get rather low at times and I sympathize with the mods’ plight. However - the knowledge and insight I’ve gleaned from these pages has been enriching in many ways. So I try to look at sifting through the noise as just the price I have to pay for the good nuggets of info and insight

 

[MC3OZ]

If volume hadn't remained relatively low the past two weeks, I'd be inclined to believe you. However, with only slightly elevated volumes compared to the weeks before the announcement, I have a hard time believing that enough front running has taken place to absorb the volume of shares that need to be purchased by the index funds.

We will never know how much front running has happened, or will happen, but S&P 500 inclusion shouldn't surprise anyone, most could have guessed a likely timeframe with in say +/- 6 months,

So it is a very dumb short seller who hasn't covered sometime in the last 3-4 months.

And many benchmarked funds may have considered a position in Tesla was a good bet for multiple reasons.

S&P 500 inclusion is still a great result, but IMO predicting short term share price movements is a hard as ever. There are multiple players with different agendas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA would need to average around a 4% rise each day this week to reach $700. Not highly likely, but I certainly wouldn't bet against it either.

$700 for Fri Close would be a +3.65% per day compound avg SP increase over the next 5 days.

The past 3.5 days averaged +5.13% (past week exc'd ThksG Hol).

And it's been +4.88% over the 8 days since the S&P Addition announcement.

So even $700 on Friday represents a decelerating trend. That's not how most squeezes work.

Cheers!

 

[Criscmt]

If the IV remains so high on Monday I'll be selling some of my deep in the money leaps and buying stock with the proceeds.

In the past two such events, Q3 results, Stock split and anticipation of S&P inclusion, the IV was much higher than 85.
Is 85 high enough for an event like this warranting selling the calls, especially if they are DITM and LEAPS? In other words, if we go primarily by IV point of view, is this a good time to sell the calls?

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - Sunday evening: China grants Tesla green light to start selling Shanghai-made Model Y SUV

 

[Mo City]

@FrankSG has a theory on the mystery TSLA investor in Q3: Softbank.

https://twitter.com/FrankPeelen/status/1333257862437511168

 

[PeterJA]

We will never know how much front running has happened, or will happen, but S&P 500 inclusion shouldn't surprise anyone, most could have guessed a likely timeframe with in say +/- 6 months,

S&P500 index funds couldn't buy TSLA six months ago, even if they guessed inclusion was coming.

So it is a very dumb short seller who hasn't covered sometime in the last 3-4 months.

Plenty of dumb ones are left, according to NASDAQ. And when the share price is high, fewer shorters are needed to keep the Days To Cover high.

And many benchmarked funds may have considered a position in Tesla was a good bet for multiple reasons.

According to Goldman Sachs, in their sample of 189 large-cap funds with $500B under management, 157 did not own TSLA on September 30. (However, admittedly we don't know if we can believe GS, or if this alleged sample was representative of the $6.6 trillion under management by benchmarked funds, according to Rob Maurer.)

S&P 500 inclusion is still a great result, but IMO predicting short term share price movements is a hard as ever. There are multiple players with different agendas.

Can't argue with that, but I'd say the evidence makes it probable the trend will be up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reuters - Sunday evening: China grants Tesla green light to start selling Shanghai-made Model Y SUV

Lol, it's hard to keep up with Tesla's rollout, even for Shanghai locals:

"In his tweet, Ray4Tesla also wrote “Q1 is secured,” eluding to the idea that Giga Shanghai might get its production permit in time to start Model Y mass production and deliveries by the end of Q1 2021."​

Model Y trial production is underway in Giga Shanghai | Teslarati.com

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Reuters - Sunday evening: China grants Tesla green light to start selling Shanghai-made Model Y SUV

Maybe this news will counter that little ètron that WSJ threw in the punch bowl (second S&P tranche in Q1).

 

[lafrisbee]

@FrankSG has a theory on the mystery TSLA investor in Q3: Softbank.

https://twitter.com/FrankPeelen/status/1333257862437511168

so any insight on what Softbank is going to use the shares for?

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

We will never know how much front running has happened, or will happen, but S&P 500 inclusion shouldn't surprise anyone, most could have guessed a likely timeframe with in say +/- 6 months,

So it is a very dumb short seller who hasn't covered sometime in the last 3-4 months.

And many benchmarked funds may have considered a position in Tesla was a good bet for multiple reasons.

S&P 500 inclusion is still a great result, but IMO predicting short term share price movements is a hard as ever. There are multiple players with different agendas.

there’s not a professional index fund manager in America that would buy $TSLA out of speculation of possible inclusion. They wouldn’t keep there job past 10k filing.

 

[Mo City]

so any insight on what Softbank is going to use the shares for?

If true, probably to load up on calls in order to sell them later at a profit, just like they did a couple of months ago with several other U.S. mega-tech companies. I don't think there is any reason for legit TSLA investors to feel good about this.

Based on Frank's findings, this time around Softbank is trying very hard to hide what they're doing.

 

[Mo City]

Whoa! Pre-market in Frankfurt for TL0 is currently EUR 495-500 ($593-$599). I'm kinda surprised.

But that doesn't mean TSLA will open strong in 8 hours. We've seen this song and dance too many times before.

 

[woof]

Bloody poetry. Can nobody follow any of the unwritten curtesies of this thread anymore? Though shall not mention Apple and Tesla in the same sentence, though shall not write poetry, etc., etc.,

Then what the heck is this blasphemy?

A long, long time ago
In a far, far away galaxy
Apple was going to buy Tesla
Then everyone came to their senses
And stopped mentioning it

I miss those days

Broke both rules in the same post! And then has the audacity to call out others. Seesh!

It was a rope-a-dope all along. I got everyone thinking island, island demand went way up, island pricing went up (that’s for real, btw), and then I went and bought a mountain. I’m evil that way.

Yes, evil. And hypocritical.

I have lots of money thanks to TSLA.
I own a mountain - albeit not a famous one.
Nobody here is ever getting an invite.

So wait... She tells us never to sell our shares...how she's watching all the silly short term traders go through angst while she grins and yawns and goes back to sleep, never selling, always HODLing.

Yet, she has a mountain. How did she buy a mountain and not sell any of those sweetly appreciating TSLA shares to do it? Margin? Not that cat, too much underwater basket weaving for that. Mortgage? What bank would give an evil hypocritical cat a mortgage? Banks don't deal with such creatures, as Banks ARE those evil hypocritical creatures!

So wait...the gold digging name, lots of money, the affinity towards defendable real estate (at various elevations), the desire to have armored Cybertrucks, and the hypocritical evil...that all adds up to one inescapable conclusion:

Our dearest @Krugerrand IS A BANK! (Probably one with a Lion logo.). Q.E.D.

 

[MC3OZ]

there’s not a professional index fund manager in America that would buy $TSLA out of speculation of possible inclusion. They wouldn’t keep there job past 10k filing.

Do Benchmarked funds need to indicate why they make particular trades?

IMO there can, and often may be, more than one reason.

I mean benchmarked as in performance compared to the Index. not needing to match the index.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla trading at €490.00 early in the session at Tradegate Berlin (TLO) (the equivalent of $586.26)

V. light volume of 3.7K shares only 5 min after Open.

Cheers!

 

[FS_FRA]

TSLA would need to average around a 4% rise each day this week to reach $700. Not highly likely, but I certainly wouldn't bet against it either.

We're currently on ≈4.7% average daily from 11/17 - 11/27, so not outside the realm of possibilities to continue the trend....

 

[Todesbuckler]

Global EV Sales for October are posted on EV Salesblog:

Model Ranking:

Brands Ranking:

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT:

Penumbral Lunar Eclipse underway right now. Visible from Asia, Australia, Pacific, and the Americas. Or view it online here:

Spoiler: Lunar Eclipse

LIVE Stream: Penumbral Lunar Eclipse November 29-30, 2020 | timeanddate.com

Cheers!

 

[EV Promoter]

@FrankSG has a theory on the mystery TSLA investor in Q3: Softbank.

https://twitter.com/FrankPeelen/status/1333257862437511168

Mmmm.... Already in august was publicly identified the big purchase of Tesla, Amazon, Zoom & others by Softbank and a lot of articles published about the topic, as this:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

And the following dip was caused by the massive sellout of Softbank's all Tesla stock.
So what "mystery" Frank is talking about? Perhaps i'm missing something, i follow him and i like his analysis, but i'm failing to understand his contribute on the "mystery".