Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

How difficult is it to move from, let's say, Fidelity to IBKR, when you have shares and have sold call and put options? Asking for a friend.

Someone in a similar situation had lot of trouble, and that was referenced a few thousand pages ago. Nothing stops you from transferring a portion of your shares elsewhere. More likely, just having a conversation would cause fido to bring out their rates sheet for HNW individuals.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have a cat.
I eat meat.
I have lots of money thanks to TSLA.
I own a mountain - albeit not a famous one.
Nobody here is ever getting an invite.
Trespassers will be shot even if they show up in a CYBRTRCK. I’ll be using a big enough caliber.
I don’t bluff 99.99% of the time, so clearly there is room for a corner case now and again. But you shouldn’t bet on it.

Shoot, I'm bringing so many highly trained mercenaries you won't stand a chance. We will have organic catnip too so your cat will be of no use to you. You are going DOWN for your anti-social behavior. After that we will be enrolling you in charm school where you will learn some social graces.

When we are finished with you, your own grandma won't recognize you. She will say "Krugerrand, I must say, I quite like the new you! It was worth the 1,000 Krugerrands your friends charged me for your make-over. You have some really cool friends. Don't worry about reimbursing me, I've taken it out of your inheritance."

 

[Tim S]

I'm fed up. People completely ignore moderator instructions to stop posting about ... anything... colonoscopies, child seats, politics, island vs. mountain, Coronavirus, sex, sexism, attacks on other members, whatever. Then there are so many different off-topic subjects that there is no hope of managing them; mods can at best handle one subject at a time, and only if they catch it in time. Some people get upset when we delete something and post anti-mod diatribes (which, by the way, we don't usually delete, because they aren't against any actual rules), and even lie about the contents of what was deleted, or claim it was autocorrect. Others tell us how to do our jobs, or how to fix the software that we have no say in.

I say keep deleting the OT posts, ignore the complaints from members whose posts were deleted, and especially delete the anti-mod diatribes. Those are the most annoying posts and should be considered "attacks on other members".

 

[Singuy]

Hmm that made me think of an interesting question: Do you think TSLA share price would be the same, lower, or higher if there was no pandemic?

Tesla's fundamentals will be better.
SP will be much lower.

Lots of money moved into tech related stocks, perhaps one of the largest transition from one sector to another in stock market's history. Nasdaq has been on a major run up. All my tech stocks are in insane mode. I mean wtf is SHOP over 1k? Any software/online/new normal stocks are breaking records in sales and sp. Zoom, teledoc, anything and everything. Tesla is working in a very positive macro environment with such a hot tech run up so stock splits/s&p inclusion just amplifies the gains. This is all thanks to Covid or else a lot of this money would still be in dividend producing value stocks. Since they are no longer producing dividends, fund managers need to find returns somewhere.

 

[BornToFly]

Damn it's been so sloooow this 2 and a half day week end...come on. Open already....someone in Japan or Germany or somewhere tell us some stock price...hell just make one up!

Sorta OT...
But if you think we feel funny now, wait till Xmas. Christmas Day will be on a Friday. The stock market will be closing at 1 PM EST on christmas eve (thursday).

And with potentially the craziest week prior to closing on Christmas Eve, the market will be closed for the next three and a half days, practically FOUR DAYS!
What will that feel like? Whatever happens between then and now is going to be of so much interest, and perhaps entertaining... and then all of us get shoved in deprivation tanks for almost four days!

Focus People. FOCUS! One day at a time... it'll be over in a flash... when the market closes at 1 PM EST on the 24th, you guys?... Whose gonna HODL my hand?

So True! Now that I'm not working, the weekend feels eternal! Come on Monday!

 

[Mike Smith]

My thoughts on the dynamics of S&P inclusion:

The run-up to the inclusion date will not be the big share price spike many are expecting. The consensus is that this is going to be a temporary spike, so while it's true that there will be a ton of forced buying, there will be a ton of selling as well (especially short selling - remember there are basically unlimited shares available to short). S&P was wise to do this over a month, giving the market time to balance itself.

I expect only a moderate share price increase up to the inclusion date, but then a continued moderate increase afterwards. No sellers will wait until after the inclusion date to sell. All short sellers and profit takers will finish selling at the same time S&P funds have to finish buying. All that will be remaining after inclusion will be all the buyers who are waiting for the big 'post-S&P crash', which won't actually come since there will be no sellers left, and short sellers will actually be covering.

 

[Mo City]

Damn it's been so sloooow this 2 and a half day week end...come on. Open already....someone in Japan or Germany or somewhere tell us some stock price...hell just make one up!

Sorta OT...
But if you think we feel funny now, wait till Xmas. Christmas Day will be on a Friday. The stock market will be closing at 1 PM EST on christmas eve (thursday).

And with potentially the craziest week prior to closing on Christmas Eve, the market will be closed for the next three and a half days, practically FOUR DAYS!
What will that feel like? Whatever happens between then and now is going to be of so much interest, and perhaps entertaining... and then all of us get shoved in deprivation tanks for almost four days!

Focus People. FOCUS! One day at a time... it'll be over in a flash... when the market closes at 1 PM EST on the 24th, you guys?... Whose gonna HODL my hand?

I don't think the early close on Dec 24th, returning on the 28th, will be as hard for me as this weekend. IMO, Mon-Wed Dec 21-23 should be enough time for us to assess post-inclusion effects on TSLA.

Then on the 28th, we dive into a frenzied week of speculating how high Q4 deliveries will be.

 

[Mo City]

My thoughts on the dynamics of S&P inclusion:

The run-up to the inclusion date will not be the big share price spike many are expecting. The consensus is that this is going to be a temporary spike, so while it's true that there will be a ton of forced buying, there will be a ton of selling as well (especially short selling - remember there are basically unlimited shares available to short). S&P was wise to do this over a month, giving the market time to balance itself.

I expect only a moderate share price increase up to the inclusion date, but then a continued moderate increase afterwards. No sellers will wait until after the inclusion date to sell. All short sellers and profit takers will finish selling at the same time S&P funds have to finish buying. All that will be remaining after inclusion will be all the buyers who are waiting for the big 'post-S&P crash', which won't actually come since there will be no sellers left, and short sellers will actually be covering.

If there is a "post-S&P crash", it could actually happen on the 17th/18th because funds might finish buying a couple days early.

 

[ammulder]

I expect only a moderate share price increase up to the inclusion date, but then a continued moderate increase afterwards. No sellers will wait until after the inclusion date to sell. All short sellers and profit takers will finish selling at the same time S&P funds have to finish buying. All that will be remaining after inclusion will be all the buyers who are waiting for the big 'post-S&P crash', which won't actually come since there will be no sellers left, and short sellers will actually be covering.

+43% in nine days... this is "moderate"?

If so, I will be happy to have more "moderate" between now and the 21st, and still more "moderate" thereafter!

 

[Mike Smith]

+43% in nine days... this is "moderate"?

If so, I will be happy to have more "moderate" between now and the 21st, and still more "moderate" thereafter!

I'm talking about from now. The majority of front-running has probably already happened. The smartest (biggest) front-running will have happened soon after the inclusion announcement.

Also, many short sellers would have covered immediately after the announcement, with plans to re-short nearing the inclusion date.

 

[Singuy]

If there is a "post-S&P crash", it could actually happen on the 17th/18th because funds might finish buying a couple days early.

I think the crash will be caused by a mountain of shorts trying to time their "bottom". We may also see many put purchasers to hedge against their core shares. When the entire world thinks there's a crash, there will most likely be one. We see there are only enough allegiance to Tesla around the $400 dollars mark. S&P's snub took out all the run up gamblers. Now those same people are back. They have no allegiance to Tesla's mission, fundamentals, or future. They are just here for the run ups and then to take profit. Many seasoned bulls will join them, make no mistake. I mean many seasoned bulls here took profit after the split run up.

 

[JusRelax]

I'm talking about from now. The majority of front-running has probably already happened. The smartest (biggest) front-running will have happened soon after the inclusion announcement.

Also, many short sellers would have covered immediately after the announcement, with plans to re-short nearing the inclusion date.

If volume hadn't remained relatively low the past two weeks, I'd be inclined to believe you. However, with only slightly elevated volumes compared to the weeks before the announcement, I have a hard time believing that enough front running has taken place to absorb the volume of shares that need to be purchased by the index funds.

 

[JustMe]

Hmm that made me think of an interesting question: Do you think TSLA share price would be the same, lower, or higher if there was no pandemic?

Definitely

 

[JRP3]

I'm going to be blunt here.

You're not being paid to do this, so don't get frustrated or take it too seriously. All the actual trolls who posted with malicious intent are long gone after the stock's run this year, so we're pretty much all here because we're investors and support the company and it's mission. People will veer off topic, a conversation might happen for awhile, eventually people will get tired of the off-topic thread and it will peter out on it's own. It's just not worth the effort to get emotional about it. I'm only speaking for myself but I'm sure everyone here shares the sentiment that no one hates you or any of the moderators here. People who aren't happy will always end up leaving in the end and nothing you do or don't do will change that, so it's best not to worry about it.

Exactly. This is a general discussion thread no matter how hard some people try to pretend otherwise. When actual TSLA influencing events are taking place that's where discussion will focus, when not it will wander elsewhere. Tons of "off topic" banter happens in this thread all the time and is ignored yet other "off topic" discussion which may happen to rub a particular mod the wrong way triggers deletions and angry warnings. It's completely arbitrary. It's really not that hard to skim posts and skip the ones that don't interest you, I do that much of the time, but I don't want the mods deciding what is visible to me and what I may or may not be interested in.

 

[Mike Smith]

Hmm that made me think of an interesting question: Do you think TSLA share price would be the same, lower, or higher if there was no pandemic?

The pandemic was a huge benefit to TSLA because it allowed Tesla to prove its mettle. Tesla's handling of hardships caused by the pandemic was the most impressive of any company I can think of. The market noticed.

 

[Intl Professor]

the shareholders you refer to *who are still confident we are undervalued* I include in the HODL group.

Through new products, improvement in existing ones (including FSD), new factories, and new markets (say in Asia), Tesla's business should expand 40-50% each and every year. Profits are likely to be more variable and less certain. But SP should always grow. As with everything timing is less certain, that's why I have been long since 2010 yet bought a smidge recently. Tesla's cash situation is also phenomenal.

We have no worries. If our portfolio doubles again next year I'll open an educational trust for my four great grand daughters to cover their tuition at major institutions some ten years from now, and then inherit at 35. So far this year we're up 4.5x (91+% TSLA).

 

[reardencode]

How difficult is it to move from, let's say, Fidelity to IBKR, when you have shares and have sold call and put options? Asking for a friend.

I made that move a couple of months ago, but timed it when I only had stock and long calls, and nothing expiring soon. Transfer was easy, but no withdrawal from IBKR for 1 month after.

 

[SteveG3]

Through new products, improvement in existing ones (including FSD), new factories, and new markets (say in Asia), Tesla's business should expand 40-50% each and every year. Profits are likely to be more variable and less certain. But SP should always grow. As with everything timing is less certain, that's why I have been long since 2010 yet bought a smidge recently. Tesla's cash situation is also phenomenal.

We have no worries. If our portfolio doubles again next year I'll open an educational trust for my four great grand daughters to cover their tuition at major institutions some ten years from now, and then inherit at 35. So far this year we're up 4.5x (91+% TSLA).

agree, future is extremely likely to be so very bright for Tesla. I'm still 35% TSLA at the moment... but, not the 80-100% TSLA that I was when I felt very, very confident that we were within 5-7 years of a 5-10X for TSLA. I see Tesla as still on track for that kind of explosive growth, but TSLA's move, being 16X what it was at its low 17 months ago, is what inspired my paring back on my position. Trounced the 5-10X over 5-7 years I'd had in mind ; )

 

[CLK350]

Exactly. This is a general discussion thread no matter how hard some people try to pretend otherwise. When actual TSLA influencing events are taking place that's where discussion will focus, when not it will wander elsewhere. Tons of "off topic" banter happens in this thread all the time and is ignored yet other "off topic" discussion which may happen to rub a particular mod the wrong way triggers deletions and angry warnings. It's completely arbitrary. It's really not that hard to skim posts and skip the ones that don't interest you, I do that much of the time, but I don't want the mods deciding what is visible to me and what I may or may not be interested in.

I would agree with you - EXCEPT that too much banter/ irrelevant posts make it nearly impossible to "skim" as you say for relevant material - or maybe I need to take a crash course in speed reading/ speed skimming.

PS. And what's the story with Naflaus - she/ he's posting very interesting notes on .... Twitter - not here ??? why was he/she banned or why did he/ she leave? can't we bring him /her back? Even the https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/moderators-choice-posts-of-particular-merit.140611/ thread has stalled mid October.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

If volume hadn't remained relatively low the past two weeks, I'd be inclined to believe you. However, with only slightly elevated volumes compared to the weeks before the announcement, I have a hard time believing that enough front running has taken place to absorb the volume of shares that need to be purchased by the index funds.

I agree. There hasn’t been a largest enough increase in volume to purchase enough shares to cover what index managers need to purchase. You have to remember the largest number of shares traded daily are high frequency computer trading that flipping shares multiple times a day. The true number of actual shares going long or short and staying in this position at close is a fraction of daily volume.