Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[amolina]

Michael Burry came around to short Tesla. Another one of them "have been" investors falling into the "Comparing Tesla to auto makers bear trap". RIP Michael Burry.
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1333998226244964353?s=20

 

[Krugerrand]

Soliloquies and monologues appear to be well tolerated:

Not according to the SP.

 

[jw934]

Placed a buy order @ 555 today, right when I was tu push confirm someone called me on my cellphone and could complete my buy order at work on my phone.
Oh well, if it fill tomorrow I will be happy and if it keeps skyrocketing I will be happy too.

My guess is once the MMD event starts to happen, all day traders pull their bids to watch the SP drop. Once it reaches the TA price and somebody pulls the trigger, other day traders jump in with their market order bids.

With regards to predicting the action on Dec 21, I am more of the opinion that SP will move to where the usual MMD will happen, as always, then weak hands will follow in far greater numbers than usual, while buyers hold back to watch it drop to the TA number, whatever that may be, before putting in a bid.

 

[Causalien]

So... why not infinitely rich yet?

The why not infinitely rich yet. Is because as your position gets larger, your trades start to move the market and become less efficient. Your move based on TA end up triggering a cascading effect and you probably only got 50% out before the rest went against your position.

This is why tsla has been such a blessing. High volatility High volume and very deep depth of market means you can tradec large before you end up moving the stock.

 

[jbcarioca]

You're right: it's 5,000 nm to fly back to Los Angles (against the Polar Jetstream), but only 4500 nm to fly to Shanghai (downwind).

We need the wind at our back right now. Model Y 1st delivery ceremony?

Cheers!

Actually the distance is the same. The flight time changes, but not the point to point distance. The airspeed changes dramatically but not distance. The only distance change is due to route changes to optimize total trip time and minimize headwinds/maximize tailwinds. Even those are properly characterized as 'optimize' rather than 'maximize because flying in the jet stream can be very turbulent. The weather is rather more complex than you suggest. BTW, 'polar' as a modifier of 'jetstream' is also not correct. Much of global prevailing winds result from the friction caused by the rotation of the planet against the atmosphere.
Here is the beginning of a primer on rudimentary climatology, specifically global air circulation patterns.:
NWS JetStream - Global Circulations

This is off topic for sure, except as it introduces the enormously complex logistics management issues for Tesla as it becomes increasingly global. The Tesla mastery of complex analytic questions might well give them some advantages. At the moment Amazon may have the most refined weather management in the world.

 

[Singuy]

Btw guys, ev apocalypse continues average 8% down for all of them pre market.

 

[Gabos]

No, it should be ignored. Time is much better spent studying the company.

TA is yet another tool that perfectly explains what just happened but has zero predictive power.
it doesn't matter if it's predictions were 99% or just 50,000000000000001% correct or wrong.
As long as it's predictive correctness was distinct from 50%, we all would be infinitely reach already.

And yet we are not. How come?
We just don't master TA well enough?
It may be so, but are there any souls that got infinitely reach by using TA?
No? So nobody masters TA well enough?

TA thus enters Fermi paradox territory... the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

Sorry, but I must take issue with this one as you couldn't be more wrong.
First - there are people making money of TA and they are called (day) traders.
Second, as your "Fermi paradox territory" argument goes - while we're at the cosmology realm - try and go tell that to the people who were the first ones to discover/observe black holes - things predicted by theory for about 60 years ahead. Yes, it took time, but proved the exact opposite you just said.

 

[ZachF]

Sounds like Elon has thought a lot of about electric jets.

Key takeaway seems to be 400 Wh/kg should be here in about 5 years.

https://twitter.com/ZJasko/status/1333897168072175617

I would like to see Tesla make something like the "Air Pods" from Westworld season 3 when battery tech allows it:

(They're basically large quadrotor drones that people ride in)

 

[Nocturnal]

I can totally understand not buying at this level, but I still don't know who in their right mind would be selling at this point. I suppose if you were heavy in margin but come on. This is like shooting fish in a barrel, we know that a metric crap ton of shares MUST be purchased in a few weeks.

Doesn’t rhyme. Not poetry. Lifted directly, word-for-word, from some speech from the sixties.

Elon looked good tonight at his award event. Complimentary, charming, and seemed genuinely happier than I’d ever seen him.

(I’d be that happy if I was worth billions too, though I know that’s not what’s making him happy).

Haikus don't rhyme and they are considered poetry.

 

[bkp_duke]

Btw guys, ev apocalypse continues average 8% down for all of them pre market.

Would totally not be surprised if THEY engineered the EV apocalypse just to hold down TSLA share price during the next 3 weeks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can you explain what happened last Friday? We closed no where near max pain and volume was not even all that great due to a short trading day. People begining of the week were dead set that Friday will be manipulated down below 550 but that didn't happen at all. In fact not one post about manipulation last Friday about manipulation... because I guess stock was up...

Ha! If you read my comments on Wednesday, I said not to expect the usual holiday low volume on Friday because due to the pandemic many traders would be at their desks, or are working from home.

Saying volume wasn't great due to the short trading day is just wrong. It's the rate of trading that matters, which was actuall above normal. I publish this stat every day in my "After Action Reports". Trading Volume averaged 164K/min on the main session on Friday, vs 115K/min on Wed.

Further, Max pain was far out of reach last Friday (by $65). Here's last week's history:

This week is a different set of options contracts. Now with S&P taking the 2 tranche procedure out of play, everything refocuses on Dec 18 options expiries. Volume has dropped and guess what? SP marched toward max-pain (benefiting MMs). Duh.

Haha, so bury your head in the sand if you want, but the result just smells like ass...

The rest of us call it like we see it from above the sand: manipulation

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

the TA predictions posted here are vague and come true about half the time. whoopty doo.

I keep a Buffett quote on the wall above the monitor in front of me,

"Be fearful when others are greedy,
and greedy when others are fearful."​

This serves well as a reminder that which ever way the herd is running, it more than likely will be wrong. It helps me in that when I feel emotional pressure to jump ship a quick glance reinforces HODL. Hindsight being 20/20, I am pleased with the results this has netted, so far.

 

[Singuy]

I can totally understand not buying at this level, but I still don't know who in their right mind would be selling at this point. I suppose if you were heavy in margin but come on. This is like shooting fish in a barrel, we know that a metric crap ton of shares MUST be purchased in a few weeks.

Haikus don't rhyme and they are considered poetry.

I think traders see volume is dropping which means all the front runners are taking a break probably because S&P decided to just do a one time add vs two which means timeline has been extended vs what would have been the 14th for the first high volitality movement. As vaccine comes close, traders are seeing volitality elsewhere for now, especially some of the Covid battered stocks. They will most likely be back and then some a week prior to inclusion.

We may see some pretty flatish price action in the near term. My explanation without going down the manipulation rabbit hole.

 

[Singuy]

Ha! If you read my comments on Wednesday, I said not to expect the usual holiday low volume on Friday because due to the pandemic many traders would be at their desks, or are working from home.

Saying volume wasn't great due to the short trading day is just wrong. It's the rate of trading that matters, which was actuall above normal. I publish this stat every day in my "After Action Reports". Trading Volume averaged 164K/min on the main session on Friday, vs 115K/min on Wed.

Further, Max pain was far out of reach last Friday (by $65). Here's last week's history:

View attachment 613694

This week is a different set of options contracts. Now with S&P taking the 2 tranche procedure out of play, everything refocuses on Dec 18 options expiries. Volume has dropped and guess what? SP marched toward max-pain (benefiting MMs). Duh.

Haha, so bury your head in the sand if you want, but the result just smells like ass...

The rest of us call it like we see it from above the sand: manipulation

Cheers!

But haven't MM manipulated Tesla stocks on much higher volume like 2-3x the volume before? I believe volume was stupid high on that day when Tesla dropped from 945 presplit down to 700s.

That time the manipulation was obvious, millions of shares were dumped in 15 minutes to trigger stop losses. I just can't see much going on when tsla is just slightly red here and there on low volume.

 

[Unpilot]

Btw guys, ev apocalypse continues average 8% down for all of them pre market.

NKLA is up 1.38 percent

 

[Silentk]

Example form MarketWatch - classic FUD, it's almost, but not quite what was written by Elon, subtly twisted make it look likely:

View attachment 613664

I look at these letters to “all staff” as Press Releases delivered exactly when Elon wants them to be. He understands every nuance of the market and the effect his words have. (Learning that was painful)

I am in no doubt that he wants the shorts totally gone, not just burned, but obliterated in a once-in-century event so they stop bothering him and delaying his mission.

To do that, every move he makes, seemingly casual, is another chess play. It is a delight to watch and I feel sure there are multiple more levers waiting to be pulled which will multiply the S&P inclusion effect many times, whether that is a stock split or something else.

As someone mentioned earlier he looked great in the Axel interview, calm, confident, funny etc he knows the worst is behind him and hopefully the upcoming events will rid him of the haters for a long time, not just licking wounds but mortally wounded - freeing him to get on with the mission.

Looking forward to watching it unfold.

Bears beware.

 

[Krugerrand]

Example form MarketWatch - classic FUD, it's almost, but not quite what was written by Elon, subtly twisted make it look likely:

View attachment 613664

I’ll need to send Mr Musk one of my soufflés. He’ll have to rethink the sledgehammer. I have high confidence it could be used as a heat shield for The Dragon.

 

[Krugerrand]

TA is a self fulfilling prophecy at times w the stock price often-times front running the fundamentals.

So while it can seem like voodoo at times, it should not be ignored.

Human factor being ignored, again, by said questioning poster.

 

[Singuy]

NKLA is up 1.38 percent

Yeah and today is the day locked shares can be dumped.

 

[AimStellar]

The rest of us call it like we see it from above the sand: manipulation

Amen !