Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

If you’re curious about order depth this morning.



Also, shoutout to @Davidzhao365 for the recommendation on Webull for opening cross/closing cross data visualization. I checked it out this morning and it seems like a good way to track the volume / any potential imbalances.

 

[HG Wells]

You can exercise options after hours on expiration day for a limited amount of time (different for each brokerage). For example, I have until 5:15 pm EST to exercise options and must call in to do it of course.

My broker ALLWAYS exercises any in the money options.

I have to call if I want to decline.

IE: its 3 cents in the money. I might not want to exercise and have half a million shares with 0 cash available on monday.

 

[pz1975]

My broker ALLWAYS exercises any in the money options.

I have to call if I want to decline.

IE: its 3 cents in the money. I might not want to exercise and have half a million shares with 0 cash available on monday.

I also meant that one can exercise options that are out of the money at close and become in the money during the first part of after hours. One can also choose to exercise out of the money options if they want to for some reason.

 

[lafrisbee]

That's why you only listen to weatherman you trust. A good weatherman let's you know the range of weather that's possible when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. Here on the West Coast the weather is a little harder to predict, on average. A bad weatherman projects more detail in the forecast than they can predict with a high degree of certainty.

This does relate to stocks if you think apply it.
Back in the Early 60's all of us elementary school kids would be the remote control for the TV. "Jr, Turn the TV to channel 4."
My Dad was respected for his smarts in a low economic class way. People would call him in the evening and ask what the weather was going to be like as far as fishing or hunting.
The weather forecast came on the exact same time on the three major channels. (Educational TV did not have the weather, and that is strange when I give it some thought.)
I was his remote control. He would have me stand at the TV, and would say, "Six. Now 12. Now 9. Now back to six. Now 9." Each channel change was done to capture a certain part of the three TV weathermen. He knew the structure of their broadcasts, and how up to date and detailed each was, and where they would start giving that information. There wasn't any better way of "seeing the weather." If you missed it you wouldn't see it again. There was no nothing. So he'd take what these men scribbled on their outlines of the USA, the South East, and our state... the barometer readings that one dwelled on, the reporting wind stations at another channel's broadcast etc.
And he'd meld them together and apply what he knew about how they would affect both the Outdoorsman and the animal he was seeking. After which his buddies might call if they were going out the next morning to ask him, "What's the weather doing tomorrow?"
While a simpler time, it really hasn't changed.

 

[Mo City]

I am back to safety (HODLing) now.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Shortest/earliest MMD in history?

 

[lafrisbee]

My broker ALLWAYS exercises any in the money options.

I have to call if I want to decline.

IE: its 3 cents in the money. I might not want to exercise and have half a million shares with 0 cash available on monday.

PLEASE DEAR Daddy Warbucks,
When that pathetic $15 freakin grand is about to go bad gift it to your humble fellow tesla lover....

 

[corduroy]

I am back to safety (HODLing) now.

Sold your call positions?

 

[H Mak]

Oh!

 

[HG Wells]

Someone started buying.
Must have looked at the callender.

 

[mickificki]

 

[redan]

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[Big Time]

Jesus Christ this has been a long week....... only Thursday.

TSLA SOARS!!!! (finally)

 

[lafrisbee]

You are not playing against the house, you are playing against other players. The house is the landlord in this case, essentially players are paying rent to sit at the table and the house in this case has zero skin in the game.

actually... the house is more like a benchmark fund manager who only gets paid if you Profit. (Or has it changed since I played the only time at a house table because I could not stand paying for such a terrible ambience?)

 

[Big Time]

Can I just point-out that since the mods shut-down your spanking machine, the SP has stagnated...

If the mods would allow, i would get it out of the crawl space. Been in their 5 days it’s probably all dusty.

I gotta get the festivus pole out anyway

 

[JustMe]

Hey, TSLA is green again

My calls are like

I’m not dead yet! I’m feeling better . . .
I think I’ll go for a walk!

 

[Big Time]

The first fish got ate by the next biggest fish.

going to be chain reaction of FOMO by the big whales?

 

[Bet TSLA]

My retirement price keeps inexplicably increasing as I add new big-ticket items to my "NEED to buy" list....

I got burned twice already on covered calls. And currently sitting on some 900s for early next year that I kept rolling out

This is an oft repeated syndrome called "greed". Many are the fools who have ridden the elevator up, declined to get off at the roof, and ended up in the basement. After the first couple of times you do that you start maintaining a bit more discipline. I know I have.

Best of luck.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Everything I have seen in the options market tells me we close Friday below $600. I know it sounds crazy and is probably wrong but the open interest chart shows as of close yesterday that Calls are the highest and most expensive loss at a $600 strike and above. That means that somehow the THEY (option sellers) expect this under $600. There does not appear to have been any hedging this week as the under $600 Call strikes were sold and the price and volume stayed too low. This is going to make for an interesting day today and tomorrow. I will close all my Puts I sold that are above $600, for profits, hang onto the $650 Calls I bought just in case, and still make a sizable profit with what's left over. I am guessing THEY are planning the same thing but on Friday.
I am wondering if it was THEM buying up large amounts of shares over the last months for this Fridays Hedge...... That might make sense of all this.

While none of what we KNOW matches this open interest chart... that's my best guess... it just seems like there is no way we close under $600 Friday. Things are upside down.... I mean look at the first minutes of open. EVERYONE KNOWS the SP500 is buying today, tomorrow and maybe even some next week and everyone is dumping their shares while the indexes are up? crazy things are going on.
View attachment 618454

I would suspect something like this as well, though I don't think they'll be able to keep it to $600 tomorrow with the additional speculation that's bound to start building. What about defending that second massive spike at $700?

I expect later today and early tomorrow to show considerable successful pushdown simply because no one will be buying and it's definitely in the MMs interest to do so. Even if it costs them a bundle and they have to unwind a bit on what could be a crazy Monday. In other words.......here comes the extreme volatility!

 

[asburgers]

Don’t understand most of this but looks like useful info

View attachment 618451

It's comparing Dec 13, 2020 filings vs Dec 16, 2020 data. Likely to compare the institutional transactions between yesterday and when the S&P pro-forma was released last Friday.

The top two quadrants are identical - ignore one. The bottom left quadrant breaks down the share ownership by geography - useless, ignore.

Bottom right quadrant breaks down the ownership type. There isn't much of a change in 3 days as one would expect. Ignore.

Top left quadrant is most interesting, breaking down the types of transactions, but the movements are relatively tame compared to the number of shares expected to be sold - unless these were done in internal crossings (which Gary Black understands to be illegal).

Conclusion: It appears that the Kraken has not yet been released.