Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1340297373269057537?s=21

View attachment 619272

If we take this screenshot as the answer to “At what percentage has TSLA been added” then, as forecasted, Tesla has entered at by far the highest fraction of any company ever.
Berkshire Hathaway had held the #1 spot and, if the difference between at 1.4% and at 1.68% doesn’t seem so great....it is, in fact 20% larger. And that is a big deal, indeed.
Caveat: do not take this as gospel. BRK-b at 1.4% has been widely disseminated but I don’t know if that was at 1.3501% or 1.4499%. So the true range would come to 15.9% < X < 24.4%. In all events, that’s a lot of bonbons, don’t you See?

On edit: after writing the above I went to the Tweet and see its author is using 1.1%. So now I’m going to have to do some digging.

2nd edit: Feb 10 2010 WSJ uses the 1.1% figure; of further interest is that that placed BRK-b at #21 in the index.

So that would make Tesla’s entry 52.7% larger. That’s a hopper carful!

 

[SebastianR]

Maximal liquidity is the goal. By moving the price up the closing cross gets more sellers but also looses some buyers with limit orders. So maybe that's the math.

This is the part that I don't understand. I was under the impression that the Index Funds would just buy (no limit) and others might have a limit for their selling. How come there were 12 Million unmatched shares?

The only logical conclusion in my mind (unless I'm missing something - which is very likely) - is that the Index folks didn't put in an unlimited buy order but that a large number of them had a 695 limit.

 

[SOULPEDL]

New public update from @Troy for total deliveries 2020 is 502.000 (rounded), up from 500.000 a month ago. He estimates it is 65% likely we Tesla will break 500,000:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1340334780131516416

Comment in there about Y taking some 3 Sales. I think I know why, one data point, but first hand experience.
It's a VALUE imbalance. The Y is way better IMO and just a bit more in price. The Y serves a much larger population including many 3 customers as the data suggests. Unless there's a parking problem with space, the sedan just falls short when value is compared.

That can introduce a problem for capacity, unless of course they drop the M3 price to say, $25K + Implied Software income for another 30 yrs (or however long these things last). Price drops don't need to be a step function, maybe more gradual over, say about 2 years. Just sayin.

Anyone that dares argue this possibility using margins isn't considering how the targets are all moving and how things will be built 2 yrs out, let alone understand the software side of the business by then. Change is both constant and rapid with Tesla, and so the world is not calibrated to recognize and properly forecast or visualize the timeline as a result. I don't think anyone would have believed FSD ability would be coming this soon, and so human-like. Meanwhile, that was after doing it wrong so many times. BOOM-GTD!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

You live in Phuket? I visited once, and not sure I'd get any sleep let alone sleep in on the inclusion event. Would love to join you. Beaches are very nice too. Maybe if I run away someday...

I live in Phuket too, but for me it's more of a state of mind than it is a physical location.

 

[kbM3]

Comment in there about Y taking some 3 Sales. I think I know why, one data point, but first hand experience.
It's a VALUE imbalance. The Y is way better IMO and just a bit more in price. The Y serves a much larger population including many 3 customers as the data suggests. Unless there's a parking problem with space, the sedan just falls short when value is compared.

That can introduce a problem for capacity, unless of course they drop the M3 price to say, $25K + Implied Software income for another 30 yrs (or however long these things last). Price drops don't need to be a step function, maybe more gradual over, say about 2 years. Just sayin.

Anyone that dares argue this possibility using margins isn't considering how the targets are all moving and how things will be built 2 yrs out, let alone understand the software side of the business by then. Change is both constant and rapid with Tesla, and so the world is not calibrated to recognize and properly forecast or visualize the timeline as a result. I don't think anyone would have believed FSD ability would be coming this soon, and so human-like. Meanwhile, that was after doing it wrong so many times. BOOM-GTD!

The Y is ONLY better if you need the room, prefer to sit high, or are older less flexible and need the easier entry..

otherwise it is more expensive yet slower, charges more slowly, has worse range, costs more to charge and has worse handling than the 3.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Weekend/OT, from NPR, warning, contains poetry.

Opinion: T'was The Night Before Christmas in 2020

T'was the night before Christmas, and all o'er the house
Stirred the clicking - most frantic - of every mouse
All the stockings were hung by the TV with flair
But children played on apps in their rooms without care
Sneaking smart-phones and laptops right into their beds
While visions of going viral danced in their heads
When out on the street there arose such a clatter
I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter
When what to my wandering eyes did appear
An electric sleigh, without any reindeer

"Self-driving" said the driver, so lively and quick
I knew from his TikToks it must be St. Nick
"I don't strew CO2," he said, "on glaciers and meadows
So my polar bear friends can hang onto their ice floes."
He had a snow-white goatee, and six-pack of a belly
"I just couldn't go on like a bowl full of jelly.
Now I eat fruits and veggies, meditate, and do yoga
And don't just watch e-sports—Elf Sports--on the sofa."

And after our chitchat he went straight to work,
And filled all the stockings with candies and merch
Then laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, he told me, "Lord knows
2020's been filled with sorrow and stresses
With Covid, job loss, and protesting injustice.
We miss those we loved, who are no longer here
Handshakes, hugs, friendships, and moments of cheer.
Santa's whole workshop is now Work from Home
I call elves for IT help, they ask, 'Safari or Chrome?'
I tell them of toys, and they say, 'You're on mute!'
I've got grey sweatpants on 'neath the top of my suit.
Family and friends can't gather this season
We miss their warm smiles, but we all know the reason.
The year has been tough, but still at each turn
People have become heroes, and helped us to learn:
That even across social distanced divides
we are all essential workers in each other's lives.
So thanks to doctors! To nurses! Delivery crews!
Farmers and pharmacists, bus drivers too!
Thanks to med techs, and scientists in laboratories
Those in clinical trials, and the great Dr. Fauci!"

 

[jerry33]

The Y is ONLY better if you need the room, prefer to sit high, or are older less flexible and need the easier entry.

Or want a hatchback rather than an awkward trunk. (The 3's trunk isn't more awkward than any other car's trunk, but it's still a trunk.)

 

[jerry33]

Weekend/OT, from NPR, warning, contains poetry.

Opinion: T'was The Night Before Christmas in 2020

Is the length of the poem indicative of the amount of SP drop? Maybe go find some more change in that sofa.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Good interview with Cathie Wood on Bloomberg, the full version of what I posted earlier.

Cathie talks about the ownership dispute at Ark Invest at 28:55

- The dispute has quieted down and they are in negotiations ... and "I think things will work out, we're well on our way"
- She cannot use the nuclear option of packing up and taking her team along with her, she has a non compete and contractual obligations
- Both sides have an interest to come to the table

Interestingly, at 25:00 she starts discussing her ideas of ARK allowing retail (non-accredited) investors access to private investing, maybe as early as next year. I can think of one private company that I bet she has in mind.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I don’t understand why closing cross price was at $695 instead of $731. The last trade before close was $664.99. That means the closing price was only up 5%. How could there be so many unmatched shares without hitting the 10% limit? Were there really zero sellers with limits between $695 and $731? View attachment 619253

What is the baseline for the 10% rule application? Is it price at 3:50pm? 3:55pm?

If so, it explains the manipulation down to $630 at that time, ensuring a close below $700 for big options writers. Just max pain (minimum payout for the casino) being applied with a different strategy.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

FWIW not everyone has all their TSLA in taxable (for immediate sell/buy) accounts.

If you expect inclusion price is a local peak, where it'll dip sometime in the near future though eventually go higher, then selling in an account where your growth isn't taxed might well be the smart play.

This applies to me. Plus, I bought some late stage shares as an inclusion play. In the event the pull back happens, I don't want to be staring at shares under water. I sold all those shares plus 200 extra.

 

[JBRR]

*BIDEN SPEAKS AT EVENT NAMING ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY NOMINEES
*BIDEN SAYS HE WILL REJOIN THE PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD
*BIDEN CALLS CLIMATE CHANGE 'EXISTENTIAL THREAT OF OUR TIME'
*BIDEN CALLS FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO BUY ELECTRIC VEHICLES
*BIDENS CALLS FOR 1.5 MILLION ENERGY-EFFICIENT HOMES
*PROMISES 500,000 ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING STATIONS

 

[hobbes]

So now that last night's (all-time high) closing price for Tesla and the other 499 S&P500 companies have been determined, it should be possible to state with what weight Tesla will enter the S&P500 index.

Has anyone published this weight?

This is just one fund, but it has 1,68%.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Is it possible to tell if this is final or could it be they still have to get more TSLA Monday?

 

[SOULPEDL]

The Y is ONLY better if you need the room, prefer to sit high, or are older less flexible and need the easier entry..

otherwise it is more expensive yet slower, charges more slowly, has worse range, costs more to charge and has worse handling than the 3.

Slower with worse range? Of course I'm personally comparing a new Y AWD to an old 3 RWD, both LR, and I have not driven a new 3. So there is that personal bias.

I think I'd still choose the Y simply because of the expanded utility. Had the order been switched and the Y came first, I bet 3 sales would be much more challenging with the S already there to fill that need for sporty driving as you describe.

To clarify my view, my driving style suggests I would really love a Roadster the most, so I'm not some old fart or big/tall person that can't get in a 3. I do like the lowness/quickness of steering for sure. Still, the Y wins for me (assuming you can only buy one or the other).

Back to my point: IMO, Cathie Wood did not make a error in judgement when she stated this prediction as well (Model 3 is the "$25K vehicle"). I don't have the reference handy, but it's on this thread right after Battery Day; I came to this same conclusion independently.

Today I believe the sales data is suggesting this may need to be Tesla's response if it continues to impact 3 sales. I just don't think this is popular on this forum bc it implies even tighter margins on a very large volume in the future. To that I quote many... "It's not an automotive company."

 

[hobbes]

What is the baseline for the 10% rule application? Is it price at 3:50pm? 3:55pm?

If so, it explains the manipulation down to $630 at that time, ensuring a close below $700 for big options writers. Just max pain (minimum payout for the casino) being applied with a different strategy.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[MikeC]

I think the exact timing is important. It sounds to me as if the 10% up limit is with regard to the share price at 4pm (which is not yet the closing price). From there, the 10% is applied and the closing cross is executed with the on close orders. The outcome of that becomes the closing price.

&TLDR - I read this as the price may go anywhere until just before 4pm, it is not limited to 10% rise after 3:50pm. Not advice.

So why did it not go above 695 in order to match all shares? I thought that’s what Rich Kim on Tesla Daily said would happen.

 

[mars_or_bust]

1. Tesla has an extension so work hasn't stopped.
2. The question is whether this particular bill is something new that Germany just added (in addition to the original security deposit) or is it part of the original? If it's a new addition, perhaps Tesla intends to protest as unfair treatment or some such.
3. Interest on $1M is not trivial--even these days.

This entire Berlin fire ants/snakes/bats/deposits upon deposits upon deposits/permits after permits after permits saga reminds me sooooo much of the Hitchkiher's Guide to the Galaxy:

"People of Earth, your attention, please. This is Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz of the Galactic Hyperspace Planning Council. As you will no doubt be aware, tohe plans for development of the outlying regions of the Galaxy require the building of a hyperspatial express route through your star system. And regrettably, your planet is one of those scheduled for demolition. The process will take slightly less than two of your Earth minutes. Thank you.

There’s no point in acting surprised about it. All the planning charts and demolition orders have been on display at your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for 50 of your Earth years, so you’ve had plenty of time to lodge any formal complaint and it’s far too late to start making a fuss about it now. ... What do you mean you’ve never been to Alpha Centauri? Oh, for heaven’s sake, mankind, it’s only four light years away, you know. I’m sorry, but if you can’t be bothered to take an interest in local affairs, that’s your own lookout. Energize the demolition beams."

One may argue that these are the rules, and rules must be followed, and that Tesla should be more careful in following them, but lets be honest, these particular rules are mostly idiotic, unnecessary, often self-contradicting, and completely anti-innovation.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

This is the part that I don't understand. I was under the impression that the Index Funds would just buy (no limit) and others might have a limit for their selling. How come there were 12 Million unmatched shares?

The only logical conclusion in my mind (unless I'm missing something - which is very likely) - is that the Index folks didn't put in an unlimited buy order but that a large number of them had a 695 limit.

A reason for fund managers to put in a $695 LOC instead of MOC is to ensure the 46,000 $700 calls their market maker associates sold expired worthless. *Tinfoil hat off*

 

[Buckminster]

55 mins in - HODL is a lesson even the best have learnt this year.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon has been very quiet - just 2 retweets in 72 hours.

V11 in the next 5 days? - maybe he is doing the testing?