Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Wasn’t some of that drop off due to reports of imminent refresh? I don’t know for sure. Anyway, no harm no foul. It just seemed like Gali really went off the deep end. They are all doing well and increasing their audience base.

And I think Karen was upset based on an option play that was a big surprise to the negative based on what was said. But again, I don’t know for sure.

Haha....”no need to hate on any of them tho.” Very next line.... “I find Rich annoying.”

I like Rich. I just take everything as sarcasm with a hint of truth. Tesla has its flaws and I’ll admit that. Makes the videos more entertaining.

Rich Rebuilds is good to go to to avoid confirmation bias

 

[wipster]

That'll teach ya. You got a big fat zero for reactions to your post....cept for the love I showed it.

I guess we don't know what you're talking about! Since I am currently Teslaless (car-wise) I am very curious as to what the downloaded "Christmas Present" is or will be. I'm sure the board will announce it with joy... hopefully.

 

[wipster]

UNBLOCKED.

Now if he would have hard the shorts picture with your moniker... I might have blocked him!

 

[StealthP3D]

Bloomberg - 3 hours ago:

The same analysts who missed the imminent success of Tesla now act like they can pick other winners and losers in the EV space and analyze how it will all unfold. It makes no sense.

 

[ggies07]

The online shop finally has the Battery Day shirt. Ordered mine. Merry Christmas to me!

 

[Discoducky]

Covered call strategy (not an advice, of course): sell them when IV is high and the SP is on a rip. Pick a strike date within three months, not too long, take a strike price that you're OK to sell at - consider the premium plus the strike in this decision. If IV gets crushed, or SP drops, rebuy or buy shares with the cash.

If your shares get called-away, wait for the SP to dip (maybe it won't, be aware), then sell puts at or below your previous call strike.

Rinse/repeat...

Note that you can also sell covered calls against held calls.

Exactly what I do as well as puts to get shares back during dips.

Edit: You said puts! How'd I miss that! Honestly, selling puts and buying back shares at lower prices is my favorite pastime outside of reading TMC.

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting article. Closing observation:


"As I wrote in my review, the Mustang Mach-E is one impressive EV, one that stands tall against the Tesla Model Yin most competitive measures. But Tesla’s foresight and investment in its own proprietary network remains a key competitive advantage, right up there with its edge in electric efficiency and range.

While I was standing in the rain at Target, twiddling my thumbs, I had ample time to mull that over — and realize that Ford and the rest still have some catching up to do."

I don't know how that reviewer can claim the Mach-e is impressive and "stands tall" against the Model Y in "most competitive measures".

The most glaring deficiency is really basic. To get comparable range and AWD in the Mach-e it's necessary to get the Premium Model with the extended range battery which costs $54,700 before delivery charge. That's $4,700 MORE than the Model Y Long Range which has significantly more range (326 miles of EPA certified range vs. 270 miles of EPA targeted range for Ford). That's a whopping difference of 56 miles less range for $4,700 more money.

Because the Tesla is considerably more aerodynamic the range deficiency will almost certainly be greater than this in the real world where it matters most - on the freeway going 70-75 mph. These vehicles are not even in the same ball-park. And that's before we talk about the huge disparity in safety and convenience features. The Ford doesn't come with the Tesla Autopilot and the safety features will not match Tesla's. The Ford doesn't have crash safety ratings yet but they can't beat Tesla's (and I'm confident they won't even match them).

The Model Y has 14% more cu. ft. of cargo capacity with the rear seats folded forward. The Model Y is 500 lbs. lighter so I'm betting it feels more nimble and drives better. 500 lbs. is a lot of extra weight, the equivalent of having two very large men in the car at all times (in addition to the driver and whatever else is in there). I could go on and on but it baffles me how any reviewer could say it compares favorably with the Model in "most competitive measures". These differences in range and weight derive directly from Tesla's superior EV technology. When you have to put in a considerably larger battery to get less range, all kinds of bad effects compound including driving dynamics. It's a BIG deal. This also means the Fords electric bill will be quite a bit higher over the life of the vehicle.

No one can compete with Tesla on price for what you get. And that is Tesla's real advantage and it's likely to grow, not shrink because Tesla is just starting to optimize production. The Ford will find some buyers because there are always people out there that don't understand how handicapped the Mach-e is vs. the Model Y or maybe they like the way the Mach-e looks. But that's not what it means to compare favorably in "most competitive measures". A porky lower range car for thousands more simply won't entice that many buyers.

 

[reardencode]

I don't know how that reviewer can claim the Mach-e is impressive and "stands tall" against the Model Y in "most competitive measures".

The most glaring deficiency is really basic. To get comparable range and AWD in the Mach-e it's necessary to get the Premium Model with the extended range battery which costs $54,700 before delivery charge. That's $4,700 MORE than the Model Y Long Range which has significantly more range (326 miles of EPA certified range vs. 270 miles of EPA targeted range for Ford). That's a whopping difference of 56 miles less range for $4,700 more money.

Because the Tesla is considerably more aerodynamic the range deficiency will almost certainly be greater than this in the real world where it matters most - on the freeway going 70-75 mph. These vehicles are not even in the same ball-park. And that's before we talk about the huge disparity in safety and convenience features. The Ford doesn't come with the Tesla Autopilot and the safety features will not match Tesla's. The Ford doesn't have crash safety ratings yet but they can't beat Tesla's (and I'm confident they won't even match them).

The Model Y has 14% more cu. ft. of cargo capacity with the rear seats folded forward. The Model Y is 500 lbs. lighter so I'm betting it feels more nimble and drives better. 500 lbs. is a lot of extra weight, the equivalent of having two very large men in the car at all times (in addition to the driver and whatever else is in there). I could go on and on but it baffles me how any reviewer could say it compares favorably with the Model in "most competitive measures". These differences in range and weight derive directly from Tesla's superior EV technology. When you have to put in a considerably larger battery to get less range, all kinds of bad effects compound including driving dynamics. It's a BIG deal. This also means the Fords electric bill will be quite a bit higher over the life of the vehicle.

No one can compete with Tesla on price for what you get. And that is Tesla's real advantage and it's likely to grow, not shrink because Tesla is just starting to optimize production. The Ford will find some buyers because there are always people out there that don't understand how handicapped the Mach-e is vs. the Model Y or maybe they like the way the Mach-e looks. But that's not what it means to compare favorably in "most competitive measures". A porky lower range car for thousands more simply won't entice that many buyers.

Tax credit is the only thing that's gonna keep it alive.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don't know how that reviewer can claim the Mach-e is impressive and "stands tall" against the Model Y in "most competitive measures".

The most glaring deficiency is really basic. To get comparable range and AWD in the Mach-e it's necessary to get the Premium Model with the extended range battery which costs $54,700 before delivery charge. That's $4,700 MORE than the Model Y Long Range which has significantly more range (326 miles of EPA certified range vs. 270 miles of EPA targeted range for Ford). That's a whopping difference of 56 miles less range for $4,700 more money.

Because the Tesla is considerably more aerodynamic the range deficiency will almost certainly be greater than this in the real world where it matters most - on the freeway going 70-75 mph. These vehicles are not even in the same ball-park. And that's before we talk about the huge disparity in safety and convenience features. The Ford doesn't come with the Tesla Autopilot and the safety features will not match Tesla's. The Ford doesn't have crash safety ratings yet but they can't beat Tesla's (and I'm confident they won't even match them).

The Model Y has 14% more cu. ft. of cargo capacity with the rear seats folded forward. The Model Y is 500 lbs. lighter so I'm betting it feels more nimble and drives better. 500 lbs. is a lot of extra weight, the equivalent of having two very large men in the car at all times (in addition to the driver and whatever else is in there). I could go on and on but it baffles me how any reviewer could say it compares favorably with the Model in "most competitive measures". These differences in range and weight derive directly from Tesla's superior EV technology. When you have to put in a considerably larger battery to get less range, all kinds of bad effects compound including driving dynamics. It's a BIG deal. This also means the Fords electric bill will be quite a bit higher over the life of the vehicle.

No one can compete with Tesla on price for what you get. And that is Tesla's real advantage and it's likely to grow, not shrink because Tesla is just starting to optimize production. The Ford will find some buyers because there are always people out there that don't understand how handicapped the Mach-e is vs. the Model Y or maybe they like the way the Mach-e looks. But that's not what it means to compare favorably in "most competitive measures". A porky lower range car for thousands more simply won't entice that many buyers.

The reviewer made a big deal (unashamedly) about the U.S. tax credit and how that really helped the Mach-E. If the Biden administration reimposes the $7500 (or more) for everyone, that advantage will vaporize.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tax credit is the only thing that's gonna keep it alive.

Yes, people are suckers for a "good deal", even if it's not a good deal. But that won't impact Tesla's ability to move all the product they can make because their built-in advantage is greater than the value of the tax credit. When you have to use more batteries to achieve the same result, the problems compound. Now you have a heavier car that is that much more inefficient. And batteries are expensive. Tesla's don't go further because their batteries are better, they go further primarily because their drive systems are more efficient. Motors, inverters, bearings, etc. And don't forget the cabin climate control because that affects real world range as well as the EPA ratings.

 

[Nurkbonis]

I set a reminder to check this at the end of the year...

Your prediction was terrible @anthonyj. You were off by $1,300!!!

Ps - thanks for sharing your mega bullish thoughts last January. You were one of the people that helped convince me to keep buying and buying and buying.

Idk why people think me, SpaceCash and TT007 are joking. We are the real bulls and hold OTM calls. We know that TSLA is going to $900 sooner than most think. You can soon send us apologies at
900 DaMoon Way
Mars, M.W.G. 69420

This is what's happening. Tesla is about to report a huge Q4 profit and guide for a small profit in Q1, guaranteeing S&P inclusion. Model Y and battery event next month, Elon following the Chief Investment Officer of the world's largest pension fund in Japan (this guy also hates shorts, hmmm), China and German government probably buying stonk too. Connect the dots you silly bears! $900 in February, $2000 end of year

 

[Bet TSLA]

** Note: I'm posting these details because I think my experience may be useful to others. If it isn't useful to you, skip it. **

I haven't sold any of the 2500 shares yet; not Monday and not today. My potential $237K profit is now sitting at $113,600 with TSLA at $640.34. Not an improvement, but hope springs eternal....

Even less improved are the "endless bounty" 12/31 calls. The 690s are now down 80% and will likely expire worthless, as I will probably roll the dice rather than recover the $10K left in them. The 590s are up 60%, much less than before. I'll no doubt hang on to them until next week some time, maybe to expiration. I'm expecting that overall the profit on the 590s will at least offset the losses on the 690s. Before inclusion day I sold off 2/3 of my 690s for a $3000 profit, so it's not nearly as bad as it might have been.

For the 590s, breakeven at expiration is $630; for the 690s, $715. The chance of a spike up seems quite small now. This is how being greedy works out sometimes.

Today was far more green than I expected, so I decided to close things out (mostly). I sold the 2500 shares near the close, for $662. So my potential $237K profit ended up being $168K. Can't complain.

I also sold the 590 calls for $74 with TSLA at 662. Profits of $192 over a month, so no "endless bounty" but that's what happens when there's no spike. The 690s I'm holding on to just for the hell of it. Selling them for ~$10K isn't worth it and while unlikely, it's certainly possible that TSLA can get over $700 next week on anticipation of the P&D report and whatever other excuses there might be (e.g. FOMO, window dressing, good macros, Elon tweets, ...). Maybe I'll lose less on the position!

Anyway, this whole inclusion bet has worked out pretty well. I mean aside from the fact that I was (and remain) mostly out of the market due to concern over the political situation surrounding the transition. That decision has so far proven to be very expensive.

 

[sonofjorel]

The online shop finally has the Battery Day shirt. Ordered mine. Merry Christmas to me!

Thanks for posting this! It made me check the store and I see the Owl Cybertruck tee which for me is a must have. I’ll also get the Battery Day tee.

 

[Buckminster]

Same principle in Belgium - for personal accounts you mustn't be a "professional trader", but in practice this is impossible to prove/police, so private accounts just aren't taxed unless it's something really obvious.

Keep wearing those shorts dude - guaranteed to fail any professional test in the world!

 

[AperiodicCoder]

Yikes, somebody didn’t pay their monthly advertising support.

TLDR, DC Ford Fastpass at EA not as fast as advertised. 20kw reported as actual with 20% charge to start.

Guilty as charged: Electrify America site delivers a slow flow to a Ford Mustang Mach-E

And the charging cable is so disgustingly bulky. It really is a shame that's the "standard."

Tesla's connector is yet another advantage on top of all the others. Many will buy a Mach-E not knowing this, but will come to discover it, and these types of experiences, and move to Tesla as their next superior choice.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"New Model 3 Made in China SR+ Tesla Review" | Lara's new MiC LFP Model 3 for €33K is the least expensive Tesla now available in Europe:

Her car is one of the 1st shipment of 7K MiC Model 3s from Fall 2020. Excellent build quality with good range plus fast charging. Tesla will sell (more) boatloads of these cars.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Exactly what I do as well as puts to get shares back during dips.

Edit: You said puts! How'd I miss that! Honestly, selling puts and buying back shares at lower prices is my favorite pastime outside of reading TMC.

Indeed, very gratifying. I sold one last week, not bog money, $2600 for a January 8th $617.50 strike. This is against cash I need for my ongoing house purchase, so I'm not looking to lock up in shares and wait for the price to rise, but I am happy to take the free cash and then buy at that price if it happens.

 

[AperiodicCoder]

Spoiler: OT: Apple discussion

The people I know that avoid Apple like the plague, avoid it because of the way Apple tries to embed themselves in their lives for the purpose of extracting as much of their money as possible. Tesla has a different business model and that is to provide as much value to customers lives for as little money as possible.

The other side of this coin is that Apple's devices all work together much more seamlessly than competitors. This is a major part of their success. Every person I've known to switch from Android to Apple realizes this after the switch.

And yes, many times their devices are more expensive than competing devices, but you do buy something with that expense: a polished experience, an emphasis on privacy, and excellent local service and support, amongst other things. I know if I have a problem with my Apple device I have multiple local locations I can take it to receive service. No dealing with mailing in my device if I don't want to.

Can you imagine Apple providing regular updates that add new functionality to products that are 8 years old without charging a single cent? Not unless we have entered an alternate reality!

Absolutely I can. Their devices receive free feature and security updates longer than any other competitors and given that a car has a longer lifespan I can see them going 8+ years as Tesla does now.

In my view one of the similarities Apple shares with Tesla in that people still believe FUD related to Apple that is almost completely disconnected to the reality of their products and services. Another similarity is that, as a person that tracks both areas (EVs and mobile phones/consumer electronics) heavily, I recommend both Tesla and Apple if anyone has to ask. They are both leaders in their markets for very good and deserving reasons and both are recommended by me without a second thought to competitors.

Both Tesla and Apple have legitimate issues, but be wary that just as FUD spreads about Tesla, the same is also true for Apple.

All that being said: I believe the Apple Car rumors are simply FUD meant to counterbalance the S&P 500 inclusion event. For an Apple Car, I'll believe it when I see it from Apple directly.

 

[Tslynk67]

Quote from Waterhouse:
============================================
Sell to Open Covered

A short position in an equity, bond or index option can also be covered by a long option in the same underlying asset, trading in the same currency, with the same or later expiry date.
-----------------------------------------------
So the correct statement is : you can also sell covered calls against held calls, provided the held calls have the same or a later expiry date.

Ref: WebBroker - Help

And the strike price needs to be the same or higher...

Simple example, I hold 20x June 2022 $250 strikes, I could sell against those $1275 strikes, for the same date and pocket $150k in premiums, right now.

Of course this limits your upside on the initial trade to $102,500 per contract, but on 20 calls you'd still net over $2m profit. The gamble, of course, is that the SP is well above $250 by that time, which seems likely, but below $1275, which it may not be, but might.

I've never actually made such a trade myself, but I'm pretty sure it would be considered as realised gains by my accountant, not sure.

 

[jerry33]

I don't know how that reviewer can claim the Mach-e is impressive and "stands tall" against the Model Y in "most competitive measures".

Perhaps it nags the driver more than the Y.