Merry Christmas to you all!
Thank you Elon, thank you TMC for turning a terrible year into a positive one.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Merry Christmas to you all!
Thank you Elon, thank you TMC for turning a terrible year into a positive one.
Is it just me, or is the Tesla app looking different this morning after summoning the car.....
View attachment 620963
Did you install a Lidar to mess with Elon ?
And how it continues:
They have zippers around the doors. When you load units on the trucks you hang your head out the window. Im not sure if these wraps are the same but most are some system close to this
I was thinking these Y are not going to be shipped until later, so the covers are just protection while sitting around (storage vs transport).
TravelFree
Active Member
There is no single best strategy in selling covered calls. If you are ready to bail out of your long held low basis shares and wish to collect a little extra cash too, then increase your risk of getting your shares called away by selling covered calls while the stock in on a tare up. But I wanted to stay in the game and collect a little extra cash along the way and keep my shares, I did weekly covered calls week after week with a strike that was just one level higher than the "smart" money that was buying calls. It greatly reduced my risk of losing all my long held shares at the sacrifice of a little more premium. That period is not now. We're too volatile and too much risk. But it was in good in 2019. Somewhat in 2018 too. Look at the chart. The strategy did fail when the IV increased and I missed it to buy back my options. So, I lost all my shares. However, I did make enough cash to buy a Model 3. Unfortunately, I had to begin buying back my shares at a much higher cost so I used a different strategy trading shares on the old buy low sell high game where eventually over several months I had a zero basis in my shares. I have not sold covered calls since that turn from flat to an increase that end of October 2019 week where everything got called away. IV has been high now and I just trade shares while using the gains to buy more Tesla shares.
Selling covered calls assumes you have multiples of 100 share blocks. If I get back into it again, I plan to keep some of my shares long and not touch them. I since have met my goals this year to pay cash for a Model Y and plan to do that after a few upgrades are in play, maybe mid summer. That will coincide with the timing to trade my Nissan Leaf as it's warranty is running out.
The 2020 Red Model S was paid for using my strategy on several stocks including Tesla stock. That's another story on how I did that but my philosophy is I don't want any monthly payments as I am retired and no income except a small SS check. So my fun money has to come from my investments.
Selling covered calls doesn't mean you have to be branded a bear on Tesla growth. It is just a strategy to add some income from a stock that is rangebound or in a temporary bear market. I also don't like using Margin or buying calls with cash on hand. I don't keep cash on hand. I like diversity and always have something that can be sold for a nice gain. Most recently I made 4X on FuboTV and now selling for a nice profit. I also am holding on NIO but will sell half when it doubles lowering my basis to zero. This is my second round with NIO as I made 3X before. when it was bought below $3.
I know many will say what I did was wrong but it's hard to argue with success. My Tesla was bought with the right timing on mouse clicks and now I have more shares of Tesla than before.
Yes, the Mach-E doesn't compare favorably to the Model Y on a one-to-one basis.
But allow me to explain why, in my opinion, that doesn't actually matter.
Let's assume for a moment that the Mach-E is a perfect match for the Model Y. Same total range, same energy efficiency (therefore same battery capacity), same top charging rate (therefore same charging costs at public chargers), same storage space etc. Let's assume the only differences are the availability of the Supercharger network and the tech that comes with the Model Y (different UI, frequent OTA updates, AutoPilot and the impending availability of FSD).
Will the Mach-E, having such amazing performance for a crossover, steal market share from the Model Y? Or will it, in fact, popularise EV technology even beyond what Tesla managed to achieve, simply by being a "legacy automaker" that entered the field, signalling a clear shift in the industry? And if such popularisation of EV tech occurs, does that not, in fact, translate into a wider "market"? A bigger pie, a proportional slice of which also gets bigger? Does each new competitive (or at least sellable) EV model really "steal market share" from Tesla, or from ICE vehicles?
Most people already agree that Tesla cars have better performance compared to any ICE car of the same class, even people who then go on to claim that they don't want to get a Tesla because panel gaps, poor build quality, poor servicing, lack of dealerships, Elon is an a$$hole, whatever. Well, fine! What happens when there are multiple cars from legacy automakers with similar superior performance? What snowball's chance in hell will ICE cars have at that point? What will the size of the EV addressable market be then? And assuming Tesla manages to retain 20% (let's play it super-duper-safe!), how many Model Y units will they be able to shift?
Answer: all of them!
An example to point out how I think this will play out:
- how many smartphones were available on the market in 2007, when the iPhone was launched?
- how many smartphones were available one year later, when the "news" already had time to get out there's a new product class?
- how many iPhone units did Apple sell in 2007 and 2008?
Then,
- how much competition was there for the iPhone in the smartphone market 10 years later, in 2018?
- how many of the competing smartphones could mostly match the iPhone's technical performance, and available at significantly lower prices?
- how many iPhone units did Apple sell in 2018 (last year Apple would report the actual number of units)?
Now, can we relax about this "competition" nonsense? The only way Tesla fails is through a self-inflicted wound.
Merry Christmas!
Omar Qazi needs our help to defend himself against TeslaQ. Please consider donating or at least informing yourself about what’s going on by reading his blog. Link below.
Merry Christmas All.
Merry Christmas, and Thank You
Merry Christmas All.
Merry Christmas, and Thank You
To wit:
China middle class adjusted for automobile purchase capacity, with household internet access: >700 million
Source:
How well-off is China's middle class?
USA total Population: 332 million [source: UN Population center]
Almost all analysts underestimate China's auto market potential because the household income definitions show lower money income than do comparable Western markets. of course, obviously, disposable income is proportionately higher than in nearly all Western countries. That does make China the world's largest auto market already.
It is dramatic to note that the Chinese middle class is twice the size of total population of the USA. That's deceptive because China's car buyers are younger and richer than those indications.
Clues: JLR has China as their second largest single market. GM derives ~40% of their sales from China. source: behind an industry paywall so I cannot give precise numbers.
Perhaps the biggest cause come from sales of Ferrari, for example:
New Ferrari boom, sales up 71% in China and Taiwan - Xinhua Silk Road
My company subscribes to an auto industry up to date database on a vast array of automotive data. In aggregate it is evident that the global auto industry knows China is their most important market and component supplier.
Tesla has proven that they understand that and are the only foreign auto/renewables provider who has been so adept at understanding how to succeed in China.
Most of us as investors know that. Most of us totally miss just how consequential that is.
I another year of so, when Tesla's next China Gigafactory is announced don't be surprised to find it in Nanning or Quanzhou. It will be probably located to be very convenient to the giant markets of Southwest China as well as ideal for exports to Southeast Asia and other places. Of course they'll also be building designed-in-China vehicles oriented towards vehicle sizes and types desired from most of Europe to most of the rest of the world. Such a location is ideally located to support less vertically integrated factories and assembly plants from countries which have the majority of world population and gigantic markets that are often biased towards domestic production.
The next phases will take Tesla to the continuing >40% annual growth rate.
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That's Tesla magic. You ask too many questions!
(Car carrier auto loader mode brought to you buy FSD)
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Every time? That may only happen once, after crossing $700 we could never see the six-hundreds again. In the recent past (pre-split) there have been days where we skipped a hundred entirely!
pz1975
Active Member
I’ve been following this and agree he needs our help. I just donated $1,000.Omar Qazi needs our help to defend himself against TeslaQ. Please consider donating or at least informing yourself about what’s going on by reading his blog. Link below.
Merry Christmas All.
Merry Christmas, and Thank You
Good video."New Model 3 Made in China SR+ Tesla Review" | Lara's new MiC LFP Model 3 for €33K is the least expensive Tesla now available in Europe:
Her car is one of the 1st shipment of 7K MiC Model 3s from Fall 2020. Excellent build quality with good range plus fast charging. Tesla will sell (more) boatloads of these cars.
Cheers!
Some pros she mentions:
good build quality, she found no problems
quiet
fast
fun to drive
smartphone access
car recognizes driver and adjusts seat and steering wheel
water from roof doesn't flow into the trunk
preconditioning via smartphone
roomy back seat
spacious storage
comfortable suspension
new headlights
low price: 36,000 Swiss francs
Some cons she mentions:
phantom braking
gets speed limits wrong
no heat pump
old console
front windows don't go all the way down
My favorite part was the information that the car comes with two pedals.
Especially the Doppler effect since November.
I don't think it's that straightforward; most importantly, you're not accounting for the movement of the index itself.
To give an extreme example, let's say the S&P 500 is up 10% and meanwhile you buy TSLA at 694 and sell at 696. Sure that's a small profit, but you're behind the performance of the benchmark. On the other hand, if instead in the same time frame you bought at 700 and sold at 800, you'd be ahead of the benchmark despite buying above 695.
I guess the remaining relevance of the $695 price is that if you wanted to become equal weight in TSLA today, you'd have to sell off less other stuff than the S&P index funds sold off. But if you were to do that, it's not clear why you'd later want to sell your TSLA -- you'd have to have gained enough understanding to determine when TSLA progress had slowed to the point where you could make more profit with that money someplace else -- compared to the S&P index funds that will just keep holding it indefinitely and benefit from any future TSLA gains.
While I can't afford $1k right now, I just gave $100. Good luck my friend!
Just a quick note to my extended family here at TMC.
Thanks for all the info/banter/humor this last year.
It has been a honor and a pleasure to be part of this group.
Hope the holiday’s find all home and happy.
As SMR say’s I love you all.
Thanks for all the info/banter/humor this last year.
It has been a honor and a pleasure to be part of this group.
Hope the holiday’s find all home and happy.
As SMR say’s I love you all.
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