Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

I've taken a poly before (not for clearance). It was very stressful.

Never taken a poly (although I have been with a Polly), but if I were to take one, I'd just turn off my emotion chip...

 

[omarsultan]

Random unfocussed status check:

$35k and Supercharger new are both big pieces of the puzzle. Market hasn't seen them as being so...

I don't think that is the case, but that upside is being masked by a lot of new perceived risk. The markets hate surprises. They want to know you have a plan and then show you executing on you plan with results that align with the expectations you have previously set. Perhaps the best recent example is Adobe as they transitioned from perpetual licenses to subscription licenses. They were very good at laying out the change, their thinking and preparing analysts for a dip in revenues as they transitioned models and lost some customers along the way.

Now compare that with the handling of the change in the retail model that came out of the blue with not a lot of context or data around it. It's hard to tell if this is a well thought out change backstopped with meaningful data and analysis, or, is there, say, a cash crunch and they are trying to put a positive spin on a tough situation. Given they stated closing stores already, there is not even enough time to fully digest the move, so folks are going to be conservative until they have had a chance to digest and see some indications of how it plays out.

The same with the price drops on the S & X. It would have been great to see some analysis that increased volume from lower prices would be FCF neutral or positive. Instead, conventional thinking is that price drops = demand issue. Lacking any other data, that sentiment is going to carry the day.

 

[JRP3]

so pointing out that Musk has violated the terms of his security clearance is shitposting?

It is when it's clearly not true. You don't know what you're talking about or your lying. Either way you need to go.

 

[tracksyde]

Dr Michael Schwekutsch, former VP of Engineering, Tesla:

posted 3 hours ago (10AM PST?)

"After almost 3.5 years, yesterday I have decided to leave Tesla. I had an incredible time with a team that is by far the most talented that I ever worked with. Tesla’s products are hands down the most efficient and exciting eVs in the world. And I’ve enjoyed working at a company with such a great passion, with such incredible customers and with a mission that is so “electrifying.” All the best, Tesla! Now for me it is time to try something new. I did not decide yet what’s next but I am eager to explore and find out."

source

 

[Duffer]

Finally caught up again. Unlike @KarenRei our resident AI, I needed some sleep.

I’ve seen it described as “the stadium effect”. It’s a phrase I hope becomes household language because it’s a simple analogy people will understand.

As the stadium fills, entry to the stadium slows as it becomes harder for people to take their seats. As the battery fills, charge rate slows as it becomes harder for the charge to find a ‘place to sit’.

Good analogy.

I explain quick charging using a water glass as an example. I tell them; you know how when you're really thirsty you pour a glass of water quickly. But you don't want to spill any so you pour the water really fast for about 3/4 full then slow down until the glass is full. Charging your Tesla is similar and by the time your charging rate slows down significantly you have the range to make it to the next SC plus a buffer (road tripping).

Musk security clearance under review by pentagon

Shocked! Ok, not really. I mentioned (2018 Market Action thread) that this would happen. Petro dollars -> congress -> pentagon.

Now is this much to do about nothing? Probably. Is this a Space-X issue vs Tesla yes, but... Real or not this headline will be used to further the FUD narrative.

 

[DurandalAI]

Question for anyone that might be knowledgeable about this subject. Do you guys think we'll see the introduction of a larger battery pack for Y based on the 2170 cells? Not a big jump or anything but say jump from a 75 battery to an 85(I know the 3 battery is technically larger than 75 but for simplicity sake)? You figure by the time the Y is ready for production, Tesla's cell and pack costs will have gone down even more. What I'm not sure about is if there's room/space to do something like a 85 kw battery pack instead of the 75 one since the Y is based on the 3 platform. Elon said the Y will be about 10% bigger but I would imagine the platform is still the same size as the 3. Given the Y will be less efficient(more weight and higher off the ground), even if they increased the battery pack size by 15-20%, the actual range increase on the top line would only be like 10-15 miles over the 3.

I could also see a larger battery pack introduction for the 3 in 1-1.5 years that takes the top range from 325 to say 350 or 370(the bottom short range gets updated to like 250 range). I feel like now that Tesla has gotten the prices down to where they want.....going forward they can keep prices stable while introducing slight new tech, batteries, etc...Similar to how they continually did S updates for a long time without adjusting the price.

The battery packs between the 3 and the Y are going to be the same. It may be possible for the platform to accommodate a larger battery pack, but they will not do this until the Model S can beat the Model 3 in terms of range by a good margin. In other words, the Model 3 and Y will not get a bigger battery pack until after the S & X have bigger battery packs than they have now. Given the size comparisons between the S and the 3, you can pretty much anticipate that the 3 can only have 75% capacity of the S.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Master list store closings

 

[30seconds]

It's pretty amazing that we are 7 days from Y reveal and there are basically zero leaks.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Uhhh. That is some really funky AH activity lmao. Did someone accidentally place a large market order right at close and miss the bell? Lol....

 

[ZachF]

hey, green!

 

[Tslynk67]

WTF? Straight after closing??

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm wondering if some material information has leaked. This is bizarre.

 

[elasalle]

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The battery packs between the 3 and the Y are going to be the same. It may be possible for the platform to accommodate a larger battery pack, but they will not do this until the Model S can beat the Model 3 in terms of range by a good margin. In other words, the Model 3 and Y will not get a bigger battery pack until after the S & X have bigger battery packs than they have now. Given the size comparisons between the S and the 3, you can pretty much anticipate that the 3 can only have 75% capacity of the S.

Oh yeah I wouldn't expect, nor would I want them to do a Model 3 larger battery pack right now. What I'm thinking is....

- They announce at the Model Y event that there will be a larger battery pack of like 85 kw
- At some point during 2019, they update the S and X with larger battery packs that are higher than the largest Model Y battery pack
- When Model Y is either close to launch or at launch, they announce the larger battery pack version of the Model 3
- The Model Y and Model 3 larger battery packs are essentially the same battery packs......they're just not announcing the 3 version until the S/X batteries updates are out.

 

[dddaaa0]

 

[Cherry Wine]

View attachment 383956

THAT? The market is so irrational.

Let this be a reminder folks -- close out those sold options at expiry and don't become a victim of something like this in the future...

 

[elasalle]

THAT? The market is so irrational.

Govt policies ..one wants Renewables, another wants Coal.
US MM want to lend and make profit, but TSLA doesnt want to borrow from them ...

 

[Pezpunk]

this is the kind of ridiculous BS right here is why i scoff at people who think the invisible hand of the market is the only referee capitalism needs.

 

[ggr]

doesnt matter where he did it. people with clearance are not allowed to use drugs - end of story. good thing they finally look into it

That's not actually true at all. The main concern with drug use from a security clearance point of view is whether the person lies about it, or could be threatened/bribed/extorted. Clearly none of this applies to Elon.

More on topic: There was a sudden pop back over $280 immediately after market close!

 

[anthonyj]

tsla-8k_20190301.htm

Something something China