Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I agree, maybe Tesla Semi can do some battery swaps as time is money with those folks.

They will have Megacharging.

IMO The semi battery is likely to be non-structural and could be swapped more easily than a car battery, but Megacharging is still a superior solution for 99% of use cases.

 

[Buckminster]

Battery swaps will eventually come with four wheels plus a steering wheel.

 

[TravelFree]

say if somehow Tesla cars in the future are able to take Mega chargers... that might effectively reduce charging time to merely minutes if not seconds if all one needs is to get home. But battery swapping would ALWAYS take about that much time. Because you need to park, align, dismount, mount, verify contact and finally give the green light to go. There isn't much more time to shave from that. Another minute from today's 5min would be a huge accomplishment already.

There are real world limits to achieving the same rate of charging to compete with a swap process. It has to do with the laws of physics and the limitations to deliver that much power in a couple seconds. Need to study up on basic DC electricity to understand. We'll do faster with Superchargers IF Tesla can figure out how to eliminate the Taper. Making a 1KW Supercharger and battery is great but if that 1KW only delivers for a second, and then rapidly tapers, there is no real gain.

First, the real estate would always be more than superchargers. SC doesn't take much more than the space the car parks into. Assuming only 1car, the station takes 4x the space

Not that I have seen. The power supplies do take a considerable space too. But the occupy time at each station is much longer than how may cars can be run through the swap. I don't see the real estate an issue based on the examples NIO showed that they have in operation.



In the US there are only a few locations where it makes sense, It's the same reason why China won't use swap stations in similar locations.

The revenue from these swap systems can pay for the operation which is done with robotic precision. Doesn't need a mechanic to put the car on a lift and unbolt the pack, That is all done as a no touch process.

I'd like to see the turn time on recharging those exchanged packs and the number they can store in those little buildings. If that has a flaw in the process I might change my mind.

 

[Mstanisz]

This is an interesting take from MeetKevin on the NIO Day. His summary is that it shows just how far ahead Tesla really is and made him more bullish on TSLA, not NIO.

Points:
1. NIO doesn’t make their own batteries. The solid state design would be from CATL who also supplies a bunch of other automakers.

2. The new sedan is not due for a few years. NIO’s self driving won’t be available until then since it looks like it’s due to debut on it.

 

[15Peter20]

Battery swaps are a sop to range anxiety in my opinion. Living in a compact place like the U.K. and owing an M3 LR I perceive the range issue as almost solved. The expansion of the Supercharger network over the next year or two here, combined with improved vehicle range and V3 charging rates mean even the most die-hard anti-EV types will struggle to justify their position.

I’ve noticed recently that the newspaper comments sections have changed from a year ago ‘what use is an EV if it can’t do 300 miles a day’ to ‘what use .... 500 miles per day’.

The wall of resistance, or at least resistance arguments, is crumbling here IMO and 2021-2022 could see it demolished completely certainly in my parochial bubble.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Don't know how many stocks you intend to sell, but won't you kick yourself if they're worth twice as much by this time next year. Why not open up a line of credit at your broker secured by your portfolio and at a very low interest rate (=>3%)? That way you keep your stock and pay your withdrawal when you feel like it. That's what this board has convinced me to do and I don't regret in the slightest. Worth setting up the LOC even if you don't use it right away, because then it gives you another easy option to look at when cash is needed immediately.

I guess I should at least look into this, I'll need to call Schwab on Monday. I'll probably just pay a tranche of estimated taxes for now so taxman won't behead me while I try to figure out how this works. Thank you for your suggestion.

 

[Christine69420]

if the taxi/limo company uses an LFP battery most can start peak-usage times with 100% SOC, say 300 miles.
In quieter times, cars plug in a charger on a schedule.

To provide good customer service any taxi/robo-taxi service has to provide an oversized fleet with more cars than demand at an one time. a limo service needs a massively oversized fleet.

For many jobs the limo is often waiting around at least 1 hour for a customer at a venue.

I can't think of usage where battery swap is necessary, if there is one it would need to be military, perhaps fighter jets or drones.

I rode with an electric taxi a couple of years ago and asked about charging. He said he charged overnight and that was plenty for him. Like you say taxis have waiting periods between rides. This was in a suburb of Oslo, Norway. The car might have been a Hyundai Ionic - it was not a Tesla.
Anecdotal evidence only I know.

 

[mejojo]

Since 'they' always seems to win. I need to ask how come they don't already have 'all' the money. If they can do this for all the stocks all the time how come anyone else in the stock market has any money left?

Has there been any week ever that this hasn't happened? Because I don't recall anyone reporting that they failed.

They really should have all the billions by now.

Their actual job is to take your money. There are some constraints. If you think they don't *want* to take all your money, I believe you're mistaken.

 

[Big Time]

I’m on the Tesla investorshub.com board. On there it shows a bid and ask price. The ask price is 1000.00.

is that significant?

 

[jerry33]

if the taxi/limo company uses an LFP battery most can start peak-usage times with 100% SOC, say 300 miles.
In quieter times, cars plug in a charger on a schedule.

To provide good customer service any taxi/robo-taxi service has to provide an oversized fleet with more cars than demand at an one time. a limo service needs a massively oversized fleet.

For many jobs the limo is often waiting around at least 1 hour for a customer at a venue.

I can't think of usage where battery swap is necessary, if there is one it would need to be military, perhaps fighter jets or drones.

Well, I was thinking only of a traditional taxi company. Good service never enters into the picture for them.

 

[wipster]

I guess I should at least look into this, I'll need to call Schwab on Monday. I'll probably just pay a tranche of estimated taxes for now so taxman won't behead me while I try to figure out how this works. Thank you for your suggestion.

Good luck. It was a piece of cake for me, did it all from eTrade's website. No annual fee, got a amount of ~ 1/3 of my portfolio to draw from. Made my first draw yesterday actually and the funds are already in my account. I would be surprised if Schwab doesn't offer it.

 

[Phlier]

I sold TSLA durring the S&P 500 entry.... Thought all the gains were priced in due to the 50% run up.
Please help!
I am having a hard time thinking I can still buy back in (although with allot less shares)

I really have a hard time convincing myself to post in the investment sub-forum, as it just gets to be too emotional of a subject. At work, there are three subjects I refuse to discuss: Politics, Religion, and Investing.

But I'm going to bite the bullet, and just post one time. Take it or leave it, this is my opinion on investing, and is the strategy I've used since I bought my very first shares of stock in 1985.

Buy and hold.

If you look at the vast majority of successful growth companies, you'll find that the investors that came out on top were the ones that recognized the company's potential, bought the stock, and HELD ONTO IT until the company exited the growth stage. Yes, there are exceptions to this rule, but the MAJORITY of the time it holds true.

The saddest investors are the ones that tried to time the market along the way. When you buy a stock and hold it LONG TERM, you have a long time to be "right." When you day trade and/or short term trade, your time window to be right is very short. Are you willing to risk your long term financial stability on your short term stock price forecasting skills? I'm not. Attempting to absolutely maximize your return on investment by "buying the lows, selling the highs" with a growth stock is a fool's errand.

Adding to your position during price drops (as long as nothing negative in the stock's fundamentals has changed) is fine, but selling your whole lot on a "high" and waiting to buy back in during a "low" is not a good idea.

Dollar cost averaging (purchasing stock over a period of time) and long term stock holding are proven wealth builders. Short term and day trading are not. Sure, there are pros out there that are able to do well with day/short term trading, but for the average guy (and even pros like Warren Buffet) long term buy and hold will end up being a far better wealth builder than short term trading.

I have a great deal of confidence in Tesla's stock price to go up LONG TERM. But I have zero confidence in my ability to forecast short term price fluctuations.

IMO, attempting to buy the lows and sell the highs in a growth stock is a fools errand. Attempting to "maximize" your return on investment this way is just NOT a proven way for the average guy to make a good return. There will ALWAYS be money left on the table. Be happy with what you got, put an X in the win column, and move on. You will simply NEVER be able to squeeze every potential penny out of a stock. That being the case, do what guys like Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch do: Buy and hold. Add to your position when the stock pulls back, but NEVER sell. Don't sell until the company finally exits its growth stage.

I purchased my initial TSLA stock in the middle of August, 2019, a few days after I took delivery of my car. I had been following the company for years, and had put YEARS worth of research in the company. Purchasing the product was the final straw; I KNEW I was looking at the future with this car. Why the bold "future"? Because that's when I'm going to sell my TSLA stock. Way, way, way into the future. I put 30 grand into my initial TSLA purchase, and I'm still adding to my position every Thursday of every week. I don't even bother to look at the stock price until after the trade goes through. Why? Because I don't care what the price is right now. I'm not going to care what the stock price is until years from now. Why? Because I have ZERO faith in my ability to look into a crystal ball and see what the price of the stock will be tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. But I DO have faith that ten years from now, the stock is going to be higher than it is right now. And that's all that matters.

 

[Mo City]

I’m on the Tesla investorshub.com board. On there it shows a bid and ask price. The ask price is 1000.00.

is that significant?

Not at all.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's a Charging & Infrastructure forum.

 

[wipster]

Grimes has Covid, no word on Elon yet...

Mod: leaving this post here, because it could be considered relevant news. It's well known that Elon already had COVID-19. No further discussion of this is necessary. --ggr

 

[WattsHappening]

I guess I should at least look into this, I'll need to call Schwab on Monday. I'll probably just pay a tranche of estimated taxes for now so taxman won't behead me while I try to figure out how this works. Thank you for your suggestion.

Schwab calls it a Pledged Asset Line (PAL). I don't know anything about it, but I'm also interested in learning more about this option.

 

[Knightshade]

I guess I should at least look into this, I'll need to call Schwab on Monday. I'll probably just pay a tranche of estimated taxes for now so taxman won't behead me while I try to figure out how this works. Thank you for your suggestion.

FWIW if this is your first year with this issue you might not need to pay estimated taxes if you've got a "regular" job and withholding-- as long as that is at least 90% of what you owed last year (assuming decent income) there's no underpayment penalty for not doing quarterly payments for 2020 even if you have a ton more income.

This is a very general question, and I know my tax situation may vary etc. etc. but just quickly:

What's the most efficient way of freeing up enough cash to pay my taxes for last year? I feel like (unfortunately) there is nothing better than just selling a few shares, even though incurs even more gains, in order to get the cash to pay taxes. Trying to take a loan just to pay taxes seems pointless, and other methods like selling calls/puts carries risk that you'll lose money just from the act of paying your taxes.

As much as I hate the thought of doing it, I will probably end up having to sell some shares to pay my rather hefty 2020 capital gains taxes, because I played a lot of short term options and well I know I shouldn't complain because you owe taxes when you have gains, but it still sucks. The taxman isn't someone you mess around with though, so here I am.

You could potentially sell some OTM options you think will expire worthless to raise cash. If you're in the situation I describe above you'd be able to sell pretty far OTM weeklies for the next 3 months for example to raise some $. Always a risk of exercise, but if you were considering selling shares anyway that'd get you a premium for em plus a higher than now price.

 

[Curt Renz]

Scientific American - yesterday: Gasoline Car Sales to End by 2035 in Massachusetts

Excerpt:

“I’m really excited to see Gov. Baker moving forward to address global warming pollution from cars and get more zero-emission vehicles on the road,” said Morgan Folger, director of the Zero Carbon Campaign at Environment America.

 

[wipster]

Schwab calls it a Pledged Asset Line (PAL). I don't know anything about it, but I'm also interested in learning more about this option.

Here's a pdf I just downloaded on it (I was looking too). Looks like eTrade's is more flexible but you need to speak to your broker to be sure. I only need to draw a minimum of a thousand at a time and per another member of this forum, eTrade doesn't require monthly payments. Just an FYI.

 

[mickificki]

Grimes has Covid, no word on Elon yet...

elon already had it