Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I was talking about SR+, not SR above. I'd say 80%+ chance SR+ is currently a depopulated LR pack currently (no software limitation, just excess pack structure)

No. Just no. I'm not sure why you persist with this fantasy. The LR is a different more expensive pack.

Last Fall Elon said they could build the SR now but it wouldn't be profitable yet, and they needed to wait for further cost reductions. That's what's letting them produce the SR now, otherwise we'd still be waiting.

Elon said as soon as possible, not before its possible. The SR is not an LR.

 

[PaulusdB]

Landlords to Tesla: You’re Still on the Hook for Your Store Leases

The WSJ has made the brilliant observation that no, landlords don't let you just walk away from leases. I haven't read it all because I won't pay for WSJ and I'm sure it's full of garbage, but here's an actual estimate of what this will cost. There's four ways out of a commercial lease:

1) lease expires soon
2) lease has an exit clause
3) make a deal with the landlord
4) sublet

I'm guessing between these four possibilities they'll end up paying on average 8 months per lease
I'm guessing the leases average $20,000/ month

So if they close 100 stores immediately they would take a charge of $16M.

IIRC from George Blankenship's presentation at TMC Connect 2016, there are serious surcharges from the landlords on sales generated from specific mall spaces. (Apple had the same issue.)

Simple: no more sales, no more surcharges. So the cost cut can be more that we all think.
And landlords have a larger incentive to try and re-lease the spaces.

 

[KarenRei]

Curious - Is it normal for a journalist to be heckling a guy on his LinkedIn announcement to colleagues that he's stepping away from Tesla? Maybe I'm not well-versed in LinkedIn etiquette, but this seems a little personal.
View attachment 384100

Someone should collect screenshots of all of Dana's unprofessional behavior and when there's 20 or so screenshots send them in to her employer. Seriously, where's her "Twitter Sitter"?

There's no more boats scheduled to arrive in SFO according to this spreadsheet I believe: Tesla Carriers

Yes, there are - Asian King. It just docked at Pier 80.

That said, I'm sure they'll stop at some point - that's the whole point of stimulating a domestic surge.

 

[jerry33]

P100D was released August 2016. I know Elon said they wouldn't go past 100kWh

I believe he said "for a while" not "never". I'd guess that 125 kWh would be the next level where it makes sense.

 

[EVNow]

So there's clearly no equity raise planned. Elon has consistently said he doesn't want to do that. His reasons haven't changed. Yesterday's DB move together with China loans make it clear that no equity raise will be needed for years.

I expect equity raise only if Tesla gets into some kind of strategic partnership with a big company like Apple.

Speaking of Apple, since their self driving program isn't going anywhere, may be they should invest a few billions in Tesla instead and partner on self-driving.

 

[Artful Dodger]

P100D was released August 2016. I know Elon said they wouldn't go past 100kWh, but at 7% a year, they could have at least a 110kWh pack, right?

Lol, that's an average. 2016's pack was 17% ahead of the curve...

But don't discount the Maxwell dry electrode tech. It's coming, sooner than many think.

Remember when Elon said the Semi might have better than 500 miles range? 600? Yeah, that's some 'Maxcell' range right up in there.

Cheers!

 

[Fred42]

This doesn't matter. Someone in EM's position should know marijuana is illegal per federal law regardless of any lenient state law. Hasn't he noticed that people are out to get him? He needs a minder.


The ID Lounge might have legs. Reveal in April at the Shanghai auto show.

Sorry for another message. I didn't mean to send the message about EM. I didn't realize it was still lurking on my computer.

 

[sparcs]

No. Just no. I'm not sure why you persist with this fantasy. The LR is a different more expensive pack.

Last Fall Elon said they could build the SR now but it wouldn't be profitable yet, and they needed to wait for further cost reductions. That's what's letting them produce the SR now, otherwise we'd still be waiting.

Elon said as soon as possible, not before its possible. The SR is not an LR.

I believe ReflexFunds is discussing only the plus model of the standard range. He suspects that they may be using a depopulated version of the long range pack for only the plus model as a temporary solution until they can fully ramp up the newly designed standard range pack for all versions. Elon has mentioned an S curve with standard range production.

Not sure that it matters if Tesla did that since it would likely only be temporary.

 

[scaesare]

The technical information they posted on reddit all looks largely correct. They said the cabinets can support 250kW but they thought individual chargers would initially be limited to 200 kW. Likely just slightly out of date information and Tesla decided to push V3 further from the start.

There were a few other issues with the data as well that makes me think it got filtered through someone's notes or understanding and regurgitated.

For instance, the Reddit thread stated that the Supercharger V3 architecture used "inverters" borrowed from the Powerwall design, rather than a stack of car chargers. While the power-walls DO have an inverter in them, that's not the portion that would replace the car charger... it would be the DC rectifier/charging component (converting AC from the grid to DC for the pack) needed in a supercharger.

 

[Mike Smith]

IIRC from George Blankenship's presentation at TMC Connect 2016, there are serious surcharges from the landlords on sales generated from specific mall spaces. (Apple had the same issue.)

Simple: no more sales, no more surcharges. So the cost cut can be more that we all think.
And landlords have a larger incentive to try and re-lease the spaces.

Malls often structure their leases that way, but I figured it into my projection of $20,000 per store per month. I'm also including CAM costs. I'd say for sure this will all cost less than $20M.

 

[scaesare]

Am I a clown because I state facts?

No, but quoting who you are responding to would be helpful.

 

[Curt Renz]

Wow, TSLA holding the 280 level against plunging macros AND lunchtime lethary! HOLD ON, BOY!

Macros appear due for a rally. An entire week down is usually followed by an up week.

 

[Unpilot]

Wow, TSLA holding the 280 level against plunging macros AND lunchtime lethary! HOLD ON, BOY!

D o n t j i n x IT!!

 

[mongo]

I believe ReflexFunds is discussing only the plus model of the standard range. He suspects that they may be using a depopulated version of the long range pack for only the plus model as a temporary solution until they can fully ramp up the newly designed standard range pack for all versions. Elon has mentioned an S curve with standard range production.

Not sure that it matters if Tesla did that since it would likely only be temporary.

It is possible, but only as a last resort...

Tweet on LR

It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla “is a company with a viable balance sheet that is going to owe a lot of landlords a lot of money,” said Robert Taubman, chief executive officer of Taubman Centers Inc., at the Citi 2019 Global Property CEO conference in Hollywood, Fla., this week.

Not according to the shorts.

 

[lklundin]

I'd do it, but Musk reports to me w his cell phone first day.

For that to happen you probably need a CV boasting something more than 300+ posts on TMC.

 

[Buckminster]

The ID Lounge might have legs. Reveal in April at the Shanghai auto show.

Are you sure?

Looks like wheels to me. Sure you're not getting confused with:

 

[VValleyEV]

You don’t charge for it. Just as hotels don’t charge for WiFi now. Say an average overnight fill is 40 kWh, at $0.12/kWh, that’s about $5. Hotels would love to give $5 discounts to get rooms filled. You do have to factor in capital costs, but that could be zero for Tesla destination charging program. At any rate, you get the idea.

La Posada Hotel in Winslow, AZ is an example. Nice destination hotel, beautiful restored former railroad hotel. Tesla charger is free for guests of hotel and restaurant, but they actually don’t check or even care.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, that too, particularly lease terminations.

Landlords to Tesla: You’re Still on the Hook for Your Store Leases

Tesla "is a company with a viable balance sheet that is going to owe a lot of landlords a lot of money," said Robert Taubman, chief executive officer of Taubman Centers Inc., at the Citi 2019 Global Property CEO conference in Hollywood, Fla., this week...​

"Only a month ago, Tesla signed a new lease at Santa Monica Place in California that goes through 2025. As recently as last month, Tesla was negotiating and signing leases, according to executives at Taubman and Macerich.

Retail tenants generally can't break their leases without penalty unless certain conditions are met, like a retailer files for bankruptcy protection or the shopping center suffers from persistent vacancies that allows a tenant to leave before the lease expires. Mall tenant leases typically run five to 10 years...
​

Tesla has more flexibility with staff reductions such as delaying RIFs for 60 days to comply with WARN acts, and re-training the best employees for re-positioning/re-location. There could be some offsets; since, in my experience, many store employees are allowed to drive test drive vehicles for commuting and other personal uses.

Retail sales of energy generation and storage would seem to be adversely affected, but those products may be production-constrained

Wot, WSJ actually printed the words, "Tesla is a company with a viable balance sheet"?

Wonders will never cease.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Extensive research complete - here is my full report on the Tesla killers that came out of Geneva this year:










A lot to take in I know - I will let you chew on that.

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