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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I agree with him though wrt an increased probability of a 1Q miss. SX ramp will mean lower margins
S/X margins were already down in Q4 after price cuts (mentioned by Zach on conference call). Likely a cost of clearing out S/X inventory, vs what happened in Q1 2019 when Raven osborned the existing S/X inventory. That was an object lesson which Tesla has learned well.

Model Y ramp in China (with higher margins than '3') will nicely compensate (likely over-compensate) for the reduction in S/X volume while 'refresh' ramps up to 100K/yr. This was a carefully planned move. People don't give Tesla credit for thinking through their product rollouts. They have become experts in this art.

Cheers!
 
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Keep in mind the very strong, polarizing emotions in this thread right now are reflective of opportunity. Strong divisions result in very divergent opinions of an investment's future, which is reflective of opportunity for strong upside. Like the war for Tesla from 14 - 19. We've seen this battle. We won it. The war for Bitcoin is being waged now, and the strong opinions here (as seen by several "dislikes" of my own posts) excite me for the future upside opportunity that both Bitcoin and Tesla can experience together. This is the nature of disruptive innovation. I love it.
 
Can we assume then that the massive put action from Friday was related to a bet that the market would respond negatively to BTC news, as some folks such as Gary are? Or are those entities underestimating Tesla and Elon’s ability as influencer and legitimizer?

Whatever the reason for those puts, they have obviously not aged well. There were 25k contracts of OI in the 700 and 740s. Whomever sold them made out, but who took the other side of that trade, and why?

The chart is looking awfully positive to me on short and long term timeframes, and the market is clearly not concerned about the BTC thing.

Consolidation in the 800s is going very well, and points to a move up above 1200 if the 900 level is breached. I don't expect that to happen until the end of March, but TSLA rarely does what I expect, so I'm positioned to take advantage of a move up while still making something on the sideways action.

More importantly, my Plaid X is in the queue and I'm told to expect a delivery by March 31 (I'm outside Boston, so that'd be impressive). They did lowball the trade-in on the MY, so I'll be keeping it and selling it locally or to a friend for a good price. It's nice to have financial flexibility, if not sufficient garage space.
 
S/X margins already when down in Q4 after price cuts (mentioned by Zach on conference call). Likely a cost of clearing out S/X inventory, vs what happened in Q1 2019 when Raven osborned the existing inventory. That was an object lesson which Tesla has learned well.

Model Y ramp in China (with higher margins than '3') will nicely compensate (likely over-compensate) for the reduction in S/X volume while 'refresh' ramps up to 100K/yr. This was a carefully planned move. People don't give Tesla credit for thinking through their product rollouts. They have become experts in this art.

Cheers!
And by downplaying 2021 guidance at the 4Q20 earnings call, Tesla leaves room to see how 1Q goes and guide upward toward 1M if all's well thru March and covid is controlled. Smart moves to hold back some of the "good news" for a post-1Q pop.

Do we even know were consensus lies for 2021? "More than 50% growth" is quite a grey area, a bump to 80% would be well received and is likely already the internal goal.

Sorry to interrupt the bit/dogecoin conversation.
 
Elon and Tesla board see bitcoins as storage of value, hedge again the inflation,some people here see it as a gambling bet. Give it 6 months to see who’s right, my money is on Elon. Cheers
Elon is right because he makes it right. If he's a no body with no followers and no products to sell, then it's a bet. But because he is almost seen as leading the way for any disruption..btc, against shorts, you name it he is in it. So with his blessings btc just entered the equivalent of s&p for crypto.
 
Elon and Tesla board see bitcoins as storage of value, hedge again the inflation,some people here see it as a gambling bet. Give it 6 months to see who’s right, my money is on Elon. Cheers

Thats not the argument. Is bitcoin a decent investment for making more money...? maybe. I don't know. Thats not my view. If we spotted a really undervalued oil-drilling business, would we be pleased that Tesla took our money and invested in that?
This is purely an argument about energy usage, and its waste to mine bitcoin and carry out BTC transactions.

Also I thought tesla was raising money to expand its business or making cars and power-packs and solar tiles. Since when did they say they were raising money to speculate in crypto? that's not what most investors think their money is being used for.
 
Oh bull, they have no ethics or morals and they are not that great at business, in fact bankruptcy heaven in China. CCP will shut it down so a ethnic Chinese Han owned company that is lockstep with the chinese royal family can take over the EV space. They steal. Hey don't take my word for it ask Ma. Ask the Uigers, ask Tibetians. Ask anyone that is out of lockstep. When lockstep requires a Chinese leader EV company Tesla is f'd in China. Just like google, or dupont, or Bell or any other company. To be clear, this post is meant to reflect badly on the CCP. Lots of good friends from China. CCP is running concentration camps...enough said in my book.

In terms of Tesla's Mission it was actually a very necessary, smart and gutsy move on Tesla/ Elon's part. If you recall, at the time, Tesla was not at all as powerful as it is now. Developing a Chinese factory complete with its local research center gave Tesla an impregnable bastion no US short sellers could defeat. Whether the Chinese in the long run will overcome Tesla, who knows? if it helps accelerate the transition to renewable energy, would that be a good or a bad thing?

Probably OT and possibly incorrect too - read at your own comfort level, or join me, have a solid drink, helps loosen possibly blocked attitudes :

TBH the US sold itself decades ago (or rather its elite sold its manufacturing and technical assets to increase their corporate profits, taking advantage of lower manpower and less stringent worker's health and pollution standards). Jack Welch started the ball rolling, agreeing to sharing know how as well as manufacturing way back .. and Jack was hailed as a financial genius ... till recently /sarcasm).
Like Bezos -who? Profit - what for?

Historically the American colonies also took advantage of stolen secrets from the mills of England, check the history...
"CCP is running concentration camps", uh and how are the US different?

Unless we get a government and leaders who have better common sense (and better taste too, please), we are sorta doomed. I recall a decade or two ago many of the US elites' children in my large US city insisted that their children learn Chinese in school as a second language.Did they think the US would rule in China the same way as they have in other countries in the past?

Maybe I'm seeing this from the wrong angle, Tesla is just a Transnational / truly international company - and the whole Earth population finally gets its act together.
 
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Elon is right because he makes it right. If he's a no body with no followers and no products to sell, then it's a bet. But because he is almost seen as leading the way for any disruption..btc, against shorts, you name it he is in it. So with his blessings btc just entered the equivalent of s&p for crypto.
Bitcoins was above $30,000 before Elon got involved.
 
S/X margins were already down in Q4 after price cuts (mentioned by Zach on conference call). Likely a cost of clearing out S/X inventory, vs what happened in Q1 2019 when Raven osborned the existing S/X inventory. That was an object lesson which Tesla has learned well.

Model Y ramp in China (with higher margins than '3') will nicely compensate (likely over-compensate) for the reduction in S/X volume while 'refresh' ramps up to 100K/yr. This was a carefully planned move. People don't give Tesla credit for thinking through their product rollouts. They have become experts in this art.

Cheers!

Yeah, once again I'm not sure if Gary even really understands Tesla as a business. Tesla clearly took the margin hit in Q4 on purpose to get it out of the way. I actually expect margins to rebound to where they were at in Q3. Maybe not quite as high, but close. The margin hit they took from getting the Giga press ramped with better yields will cause a quick turnaround in margin plus no more heavy discounting of S/X to clear inventory....then as you said add in more Model Y sales.

Q4 was about as bad you could get when it comes to margin(at least from a traditional way of Wall St valuing earnings) and yet the stock barely sold off on very light volume.

As for guidance.....I think Q1 P/D numbers will let the cat out of the bag when it comes to Tesla's true ambitions for 2021 production/deliveries. I'm actively accumulating in the 800's because of this
 
I was putting off learning about crypto, but now I can't procrastinate any longer. I was under the assumption that BTC was extremely wasteful in its power consumption. When I try to get to the bottom of this, I see arguments that claim this is false and a misunderstanding, but they're all written by BTC bulls. However, the arguments I'm seeing that make claims of enormous energy usage seem to also try to slip negative associations with China (claims of most of the mining activity being in Xinjiang). And then people here are saying BTC uses more energy than entire countries. Seems like that would overload Xinjiang's relatively underdeveloped grid.

I'm so confused. Why couldn't Elon have put this out on a Friday after hours? I'm not going to get anything done today.
One good place to get a good overview of the math behind bitcoin is this video from 3Blue1Brown. It doesn't go into the economics of the currency but provides a good practical guide as to how it works mechanically.
 
Thats not the argument. Is bitcoin a decent investment for making more money...? maybe. I don't know. Thats not my view. If we spotted a really undervalued oil-drilling business, would we be pleased that Tesla took our money and invested in that?
This is purely an argument about energy usage, and its waste to mine bitcoin and carry out BTC transactions.

Also I thought tesla was raising money to expand its business or making cars and power-packs and solar tiles. Since when did they say they were raising money to speculate in crypto? that's not what most investors think their money is being used for.

Not all disruption can be 100% perfect in all facets of life/society. Bitcoin is financial disruption with energy costs. If you are interested in/prioritize financial disruption, the energy/climate costs probably come second. Likewise, those of us prioritizing energy/climate are not as concerned with the short-term financial consequences (the death of gazillion dollar industries, job loss to people in those sectors, etc.). We know there ultimately will be solutions for some of those "costs," and some of those costs are also worth the sacrifice.

I do think the energy side of BTC is something that can be solved by the energy disruptors, and is probably a shorter-term concern.
 
As of this morning’s TSLA news, Bitcoin has arguably become much more environmentally stable. Depending on the exact date in January of Tesla’s purchase of Bitcoin, Tesla’s investment in Bitcoin has likely grown enough to get 1/3 - 1/2 of the cost of the next Gigafactory for free. That is the ultimate Carbon Footprint offset. And by the time Bitcoin reaches $150,000 and Chamath buys The Hamptons, Tesla will have enough profit from this investment to build ~5 Gigafactories.

Chamath has wisely stated that it makes no sense to sell stocks like TSLA because of the problem it creates - “where would you put the money?” Today Elon has taken that logic a step further with TSLA no longer storing their piles of money in a WS bank for WS to leverage and for WS to earn all the interest on. Now TSLA’s money is at work making the planet more sustainable whether it is deployed in the Market or deployed on the Construction Site.
 
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I have exited my position as president of the Gary Black fan club. :mad: