Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johnny Ma]

Too bad I can only vote disagree once. If I could queue up 365 of them I would drop about 300 on you right now.

You have so much to learn. Crypto, energy, new methods of verifying transactions are all on deck.

I went from estimating a 5% chance of Tesla having its own blockchain tech using tesla cars as proof of stake validator nodes now to 25%.

Evolve or go extinct.

I have a cartoon level understanding of what proof of stake is, but can you elaborate on this and how you think it would affect Tesla as a company? Why would they do this?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I don't get how someone can say "TSLA is going to the moon" for months, along with their rationale for why, then one day say "I'm out" when nothing fundamentally has changed about the business.

 

[Krugerrand]

Good. IMO his Tweets always swayed in the wind. He was accurate some of the time, but no more accurate than my gut feeling.

Edit: Wow, I almost duplicated what StarFoxIsDown! wrote, before I even read his comment.

You need to work on your gut. Mine’s alway right. Maybe some probiotics and stay away from @Chunky Jr. burritos.

 

[ZeApelido]

Putting 10% in BTC to my 90% in TSLA in 2019 was supposed to be uncorrelated diversification, they said.

 

[Lessmog]

I'm mad as hell for Tesla buying $BTC, seriously, WTF are they playing at? Everyone knows $DOGE is the future of crypto!

Considering the prevailing felinity in some parts of this community, perhaps a merger with ARK is in the wind? Like, oh I dunno, $Cath-y? As a compromise.

On edit: Who gets the lion part must be a matter of negotiation, of course.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hmm...it seems Mom’s PT raise might have been a bit more propheciary (it’s a word now because sentence) than I first thought.

FYI, other than red, hot, swollen injection site, she feels fine.

 

[CLK350]

Also we're promoting Bitcoin NOW. The renewable supergrid will be in the future, so until then... how's Bitcoin supporting the mission?

Great question - I can see how it helps the mission indirectly by keeping Tesla financially solid and less dependent on the vagaries of the USD and other currencies. And the USD cash depreciates far faster than the official inflation index would let you believe, it is more like roughly 10% vs the official 2% -see for example these less artificially manipulated rates.

TLDR: shorting the SEC/ USD and the usual political cronies running the country - not conceivable until Tesla became so strong industrially & financially. Still takes balls to do this, however subtly.

 

[Singuy]

There is no per transaction energy cost. Bitcoin security through mining secures all past transactions and maintains the existence of the network. It would be the same whether any transactions were done or not.

Yeah I was wondering what is being measured there.

 

[woodisgood]

Clearly BTC and Tesla taking a stake in it is a polarizing topic, especially for people in the traditional financial realm such as Gary Black.

Can we assume then that the massive put action from Friday was related to a bet that the market would respond negatively to BTC news, as some folks such as Gary are? Or are those entities underestimating Tesla and Elon’s ability as influencer and legitimizer?

 

[saniflash]

Gary black bailed out of TSLA.

https://mobile.twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1358795340862873602

I agree with him though wrt an increased probability of a 1Q miss. SX ramp will mean lower margins

 

[corduroy]

Whether we like it or not, DeFi is coming. This move aligns with Tesla's innovation vision. I see this as embracing a technology that a younger generation is excited about, that generation who will be buying products like the more affordable Model 2 en masse. If that furthers the overall mission, the net effect on carbon reduction could be positive, even considering BTC's negatives.

 

[MXWing]

Gary said a couple weeks ago that if TSLA put BTC on its balance sheet, he'll exit. I think he's just making a point. Not that I agree with it. He'll probably regret it later.

Not probably. He will. ESPECIALLY in 3.5 years when the daily BTC supply halves.

He is a boomer fool.

This is a stupid infinite money printing machine.

TSLA makes BTC go up
BTC makes TSLA go up
TSLA makes BTC go up.

 

[woodisgood]

Whether we like it or not, DeFi is coming. This move aligns with Tesla's innovation vision. I see this as embracing a technology that a younger generation is excited about, that generation who will be buying products like the more affordable Model 2 en masse. If that furthers the overall mission, the net effect on carbon reduction could be positive, even considering BTC's negatives.

I suppose that’s not a reference to a California senator.

 

[Singuy]

Clearly BTC and Tesla taking a stake in it is a polarizing topic, especially for people in the traditional financial realm such as Gary Black.

Can we assume then that the massive put action from Friday was related to a bet that the market would respond negatively to BTC news, as some folks such as Gary are? Or are those entities underestimating Tesla and Elon’s ability as influencer and legitimizer?

No one bets a billion. A few million sure. That was most likely large firms doing some kind of transitioning from stocks to options to open up liquidity. Also no one in their right mind thinks Tesla will lose 250 billion dollars in market cap from a 1.5 billion dollar stake in btc..and then bet a billion hoping that will happen.

Even if Elon has cancer, no one is willing to bet that much money on short term puts.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Gary said a couple weeks ago that if TSLA put BTC on its balance sheet, he'll exit. I think he's just making a point. Not that I agree with it. He'll probably regret it later.

The actual tweet was moronic, he clearly has no rational basis for investment in the first place. TSLA is valued at $800B and he's talking about EV deliveries in 2021. If you think pushing EVs out the door in 2021/22/23/24 is relevant to a $800B stock, you're nuts IMO.

It's Energy.....and maaaaybe a dash of robotxi.

 

[goinfraftw]

No one bets a billion. A few million sure. That was most likely large firms doing some kind of transitioning from stocks to options to open up liquidity. Also no one in their right mind thinks Tesla will lose 250 billion dollars in market cap from a 1.5 billion dollar stake in btc..and then bet a billion hoping that will happen.

Even if Elon has cancer, no one is willing to bet that much money on short term puts.

That makes me think that, maybe, its a hedge?

Note:

 

[jbcarioca]

Of course Magna Steyr is the Foxconn of cars. The curious question is why didn't Apple go to them?

Actually it is just Magna. Magna Steyr makes some of the most interesting ones but all of Magna has done contract vehicle assembly since the 1970's. Unlike many Tier Ones they have devoted serious resources to BEV, and have Ford Focus Electric, a couple BMW's, Jaguar I-Pace and others to show, but they always have been Tier One plus a bit.
Home
Their ICON system might not be too easily dismissed:
Tech Tutorial: Magna's ICON Radar
As for vehicles they have designed and built or just built the Wiki has a partial list:
Magna Steyr - Wikipedia
FWIW, I have owned six cars built my Magna-Steyr, three of which were not in the Wiki list.

From their first EV in 2008 to several built in China today, including a couple with BAIC, Magna has devoted major attention to BEV's. Nobody anywhere brags about that, including ones like Daimler and BMW who try to minimize their role.
Tesla is a client of Magna and will probably end out with more Magna-Steyr and Magna China cooperation. Since Tesla is now prepared to allow some of their proprietary techniques by third parties I'll wager a substantial amount that the Tesla/Magna relationship will grow. There are others, after all Magna is only the third-largest industry suppliers. But Magna is the largest contract manufacturer by a significant margin.

Magna is ideally placed to distribute Tesla technologies without the political baggage of Tesla itself doing that. Magna has made it's entire history on allowing their clients to pretend they are doing it themselves. For years deflation of origin in Austria was a big hint. Now they might make more vehicles in China than in Austria. With annual production of ~4 million they are larger than several of their best clients.

Disclosure: I have been a Magna shareholder from time to time since 1990.

 

[jhm]

Another what if ... What If at one point tesla decides to pay divident in BTC?

Another on (naked) shorts?

How is this any more damaging to shorts than Tesla paying a cash dividend? What could be more interesting would be for Tesla to issue as dividends crypto stock shares that cannot be shorted. I'm not sure exactly how this would work, but it seems somebody must be working on such an objective.

 

[woodisgood]

No one bets a billion. A few million sure. That was most likely large firms doing some kind of transitioning from stocks to options to open up liquidity. Also no one in their right mind thinks Tesla will lose 250 billion dollars in market cap from a 1.5 billion dollar stake in btc..and then bet a billion hoping that will happen.

Even if Elon has cancer, no one is willing to bet that much money on short term puts.

I get what you’re saying, and agree, but don’t understand how such a short-term contract would accomplish a stock/option transition.

Really feels like whatever the purpose (hedging, betting, etc.), it was done with advance knowledge of today’s disclosure.

 

[2daMoon]

The thing I've had difficulty reconciling about Bitcoin, and now Tesla's investment into it, is who controls the Dollars, Pounds, Euros, Yuan, etc. that were used to purchase Bitcoin? Sure, Bitcoin lives safely in the ether, untouchable by Central Banks. But, when it is converted back to traditional currencies those monies must come from somewhere.

Who holds the reins on those traditional (non-Bitcoin) accounts where payments into and out of Bitcoin happen, and what prevents intervention by Central Banks into that aspect of the process?

Granted, if something were to happen and Tesla lost 1.5B it wouldn't really be an insurmountable impact.

Still, I struggle with accepting Bitcoin as a "real" currency, at least until it is being traded alongside other currencies in the FOREX, rather than in the stocks or commodities markets.