Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AimStellar]

Fun times.

 

[UltradoomY]

The problem is that there is nothing out there for that time frame with those premiums. ie. Jun17'22 1725C are trading around $98.

Possible conclusion. Mr G YOLO'd on Jun19'21 1100C instead.

I would strongly consider that it is accurate - since he is disclosing it.
Some people - including those with Board Chairs - can buy (and sell) options that are not on the market that we can view.
They can go directly to the MM or have a relationship already to make the sale available.

 

[Nocturnal]

We are still up over $100 from the S&P inclusion numbers. We will be fine everyone. Buy the dip or sell puts. I'm finding that selling puts has the other advantage that I can keep some cash reserves without getting too itchy to spend it on something.

 

[capster]

This is my first cut of where the batteries came from in 2020. It is a mix of bottom up and top down, and there are variable levels of confidence in different bits of intelligence I turned up. The whole matrix needs to add to 113 GWh and I have assumed that Adamas got their ratios correct between the different cell suppliers after allowing for 10 GWh going into HEV. One big assumption I made was that BYD preferentially feed cells to themselves. I did the top 20 auto OEMs, and the same cell suppliers as Adamas, but collapsed it down into seven auto lines just as with my other stuff.

Anyway, some questions:
Q1. If you spot any significant errors in the 2020 results please tell me.
Q2. If you have helpful data sources for 2019 let me know and I'll see if I can construct that.
Q3. If you have any credible info on what the picture will be for 2021 and 2022 please let me know and I will crunch that.

That is a fabulous chart. It clearly and concisely captures the state of play. Thank you.

It would be interesting to know the PHEV/BEV battery use ratios. It’d likely overload the chart to add the ratios, but you might try using shading to convey them and see if it works.

Also you might list within parentheses which OEM’s are in the "Next Tier" in the appropriate block (but not in the legend).

One question you might face is "How much PHEV battery capacity could be readily shifted to BEV use?" or some such. Having even a WAG in your backup slides would be slick. Please post the answer to this question if you develop one. TIA

 

[petit_bateau]

That is a fabulous chart. It clearly and concisely captures the state of play. Thank you.

It would be interesting to know the PHEV/BEV battery use ratios. It’d likely overload the chart to add the ratio, but you might try using shading to convey it and see if it works.

Also you might list within parentheses which OEM’s are in the "Next Tier" in the appropriate block (but not in the legend).

One question you might face is "How much PHEV battery capacity could be readily shifted to BEV use?" or some such. Having even a WAG in your backup slides would be slick. Please post the answer to this question if you develop one. TIA

1. For PHEV/BEV ratio see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments

2. For Next Tier see Tesla BEV Competition Developments (but it is SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes ).

3. For shifting, again see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments , esp my points 2, 5, 9.

Have you any info re my questions ?

 

[Big Time]

Jesus Gary is just blind. Wtf happened to him. Straight knucklehead. He’s ranting about Tesla growth stopping as Tesla sets guidance for 500K again. Lol. Did he forget that Shanghai is now running at 25K monthly aka 300K annual. And that number will no doubt grow this year..

Tesla Shanghai only delivered around 150K in all of 2020?...: there’s 50% yoy right there.

also, I hope Tesla releases some sort of good news soon, update on ANYTHING would be a confidence booster for what ever is going on in the market. I gotta believe they can see/feel the effects..... I know how it goes though they seemingly act as if they don’t care about the stock...seen it before, we will see it again.

good luck all

 

[capster]

1. For PHEV/BEV ratio see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments

2. For Next Tier see Tesla BEV Competition Developments (but it is SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes ).

3. For shifting, again see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments , esp my points 2, 5, 9.

Have you any info re my questions ?

If I did, I would happily provide it to you. Alas, I do not. I am retired for now at least.

Thank you for the links.

 

[asburgers]

GB revised again a 6-12 mo PT of $960 today. That is by no means bearish.

Guess he is looking to for quick outs on other stocks and reenter in 3-4 months? Weird move to be completely out as I wouldn't consider 6-12 mos long term.

Ok. I can't explain this except to speculate that GB hates BTC.

https://twitter.com/TeslaHab/status/1358820114364325888?s=19

 

[StealthP3D]

When your mission is to reduce human output of CO2 you need to use every weapon in your arsenal. That includes debunking the often used and wrong talking about that CO2 is good for plants. I was simply expressing my surprise that someone who has been concerned about human generated CO2 for as long as Elon didn't know that what Rogan was saying was false and didn't correct him. Pointing out inaccuracies is never "nonsense".

You are way off base latching on to this comment by Elon and making a mountain of misleading BS out of the flat out truth. The fact is, CO2 is good for plants (in the same way that O2 is good for humans). Sure, too much of either is bad but plants can use more CO2 than the natural atmospheric level to grow faster and thrive. Elon said this as a matter of fact (because it is a matter of fact). But you are using it to pretend he has gone off the deep end. Pull yourself together, get real and stop the misleading BS!

The most productive marijuana growers spend a lot of money equipping their grow rooms with CO2 enrichment because the plants like it. Which is to say they grow faster and the grower can make a lot more money, even after paying off his CO2 equipment and expendables. Growers who don't use CO2 cannot match the growth rates of those who do, even using powerful fans to maintain normal CO2 levels in the grow room. This is a fact. Elon knows it. He was just stating the obvious to anyone knowledgeable about plant growth. He didn't say we should strive for high levels of CO2, quite the opposite.

Elon Musk has dedicated a larger portion of his life to lowering CO2 levels in the atmosphere than anyone I can think of. He is even offering a $100 million reward for the winner of a contest for developing the best carbon sequestration scheme. That's right, $100 million dollars to lower atmospheric CO2. I think he knows what he's talking about - it is you who are confused. Now please stop wasting our time with this worthless and misleading distraction about nothing.

 

[petit_bateau]

And this is the same scene but from the cell suppliers' perspective :

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Sentiment on this board has turned again since $TSLA has been in the red for this week....Time to take a breather and be back when happier times return

 

[lafrisbee]

View attachment 636113 View attachment 636114 View attachment 636115

here are three tech stocks from the past week. Which one is TSLA? Whatever price action we're seeing in TSLA, it isn't unique.

TSLA is the middle one, BTW. Top one is AMZN, bottom one is AAPL

edit : I don't know how to do the Spoiler section thing...

So.... is it closing yet?
SOMETIMES the MM's don't have enough resources to cover the Pain.... but let's just wait till 4PM. Until then they yank the stock whicever way it makes them a penny. It is their job.

 

[Nocturnal]

GB revised again a 6-12 mo PT of $960 today. That is by no means bearish.

Guess he is looking to for quick outs on other stocks and reenter in 3-4 months? Weird move to be completely out as I wouldn't consider 6-12 mos long term.

Ok. I can't explain this except to speculate that GB hates BTC.

https://twitter.com/TeslaHab/status/1358820114364325888?s=19

I think it's clear that his decision was an emotional one. It happens to almost all of us. The key is to recognize that and admit it. Not sure he has. I don't see any other way he could go from a high target to randomly selling.

My personal example was when Elon tweeted "stonk is too high". That freaked me out (arguably rightly so) and I sold 25% of my holdings. After thinking on it and not seeing Elon do anything else that seemed "crazy" I swallowed my pride and bought back in. I think I did slightly better than when I sold but it could have gone the other way just as easily.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sentiment on this board has turned again since $TSLA has been in the red for this week....Time to take a breather and be back when happier times return

I don't know. I'm really depressed about the stock price right now.

I can't stop crying.

 

[asburgers]

Waifus are underappreciated.

 

[ZeApelido]

In positive news, I went on a run through Atherton [basically the richest place here]. I went on a different route and surprisingly saw 3 mansions with absolutely massive Tesla Solar Roofs on them. Next time I will snap a picture.

 

[Rammstein]

That is simple. Max Pain is NOT $830. As I have said before, the printed max pain is an aggregate of more than one army.
Today THEY now WANT it under $830.
They want it ABOVE $800 (that would actually hurt to be under)
Everything between those is chicken feed. Puts almost match Calls.

THEY are trading Options today so all this can move while we don't get to see the magic wand.

View attachment 636130

The reason I say THEY is because I actually have no clue who THEY are. The 800 Puts can be a difference THEY than the $830 Calls. Could be hedge funds. Could be MMs. If the magnet works easily then it's most likely MMs. Notice how after $785 someone went "NO!" and it was immediately brought up above $800. That was almost like a nun with a ruler.

These days are fun to watch when big guys (THEY) are having a disagreement. Stay out of the way.

Thanks.
So generally look at where there is a Put wall and a Call wall more so than the published Max pain number because that will change through Friday?

 

[jerry33]

I don't know. I'm really depressed about the stock price right now.

I can't stop crying.

And you invested in TSLA? Everyone should know by now that it gets manipulated up and down--usually with large swings. The overall trend is up as long as Tesla keeps executing.

 

[22522]

In positive news, I went on a run through Atherton [basically the richest place here]. I went on a different route and surprisingly saw 3 mansions with absolutely massive Tesla Solar Roofs on them. Next time I will snap a picture.

Those tiles are a perfect match for Atherton! Should be on 3 out of 4 houses in that neighborhood.

 

[asburgers]

Some dudes on YT talking about the OTM option moves. Seems like a logical conclusion.