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Any thoughts on Berkshire 13F timing?

Must be in by today? Looking at: EDGAR Search Results (the link provided is filtered for 13F forms) shows they have all been submitted either on the 14th, 15th or 16th of each Feb/May/Aug/Nov in the last few years...
 
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That is how it works. You have only lost the first day of production, not the final day of the ramp.

Yeah, and futher, a 'snow-day' loss-of-time presumes that assembly of the building shell is the time-critical item on the Gantt chart.

It's much more likely that tooling for long-lead items like an 80-ton stamping press w. associated dies (which have to be ordered months or years in advance) will determine when we see the start of production. There are no welding robots sitting on a side road waiting to be installed. That's not how engineers plan their work.

Snow day's aren't the limiting factor. As long as the building shell is up when installation day arrives for big items, the schedule won't slip.

Cheers!
 
I don't know why folks are so concerned about a couple of days of delay at GF Austin. Tesla just secured a gazillion new customers across a huge swath of the south for distributed energy products and a future Tesla HVAC system.

As a native Minnesotan I usually wouldn't be able to resist the urge to ridicule Texans at a time like this, but whenever I think about it I can't help get distracted by all the $$$$$ signs that pop into my eyes.
And the areas affected had lower electricity prices from the utility so solar was never a consideration, but with no electricity, 8 degree temps and bright days outside solar looks pretty appealing right now.
 
An article was published yesterday in The Age newspaper here in Australia that does a pretty good job of explaining the current and future role of big batteries in Australia's energy grid. From Teslas original big battery in South Australia to the current state of play. I recommend taking the time to read it:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...ape-the-electricity-grid-20210211-p571qm.html

Much of it will already be known to many here but it contains a lot of information I haven't seen spelled out this clearly before. It also shows what is likely to occur in other grids around the world as renewables take over from traditional energy.

Some of the main points and quotes worth noting:

The article provides a detailed list of all the big batteries currently operating or proposed in Australia. It lists a total of 7,805MW worth of battery projects in a country where the peak electricity demand is currently around 35,000MW. Many of these batteries are likely to be provided by Tesla.

“We can say for sure now that battery storage is much cheaper than transmission lines and that case is only likely to grow,”
-There are currently a lot of expensive transmission line projects being planned in Australia - batteries will make many of these redundant.

"Big batteries can also remove the need for hydro dams – which can only be built where rivers and geography allow – and require big costly transmission lines to move their power to where it is most needed."
- Our governmenets are currently spending Billions of dollars on large centralised pumped hydro projects with massive transmission lines.

"batteries are now so cheap they are out-competing gas peaking plants, changing the way operators and regulators view future infrastructure needs"

“batteries will almost certainly win”
 
Amazing when the auto ad sales driving the auto news coverage is so blatant.

GM Ad is right below headline for big section of "Transition to Electric Cars"

GM's electric car goals first article of "Transition" section, followed by China dominates.

Very little mention of Tesla.

New York Times very obvious. It is always like focusing on Nokia and Motorola and ignoring Apple. Just because "ad dollars"

And I'm a huge fan of the Times... just so disappointed in their ad driven auto reporting.

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Within the past year the two largest and most populous states in the US have both experienced extreme weather that meant losing power for extended periods of time. So, is anyone else really friggin bullish on demand for home solar, power walls, and grid storage?

A hot off the presses rumor from Twitter: Tesla is internally aiming for 1M+ deliveries for 2021 and a Model Y LR RWD is coming soon.

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1361512726686818307

If true, I wish we knew if the driving force for this was Model Y blowing the doors off in China and Fremont or if optimism on the 4680 battery production ramp would allow Berlin and/or Austin to contribute more than expected this year.

Quite a few of us speculated that 1 million was probably the internal stretch goal based on Elon's semi-response when asked during the P&D call. I figure that's the good case if Berlin and maybe Austin come online at China speed.
 
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Amazing when the auto ad sales driving the auto news coverage is so blatant.

GM Ad is right below headline for big section of "Transition to Electric Cars"

GM's electric car goals first article of "Transition" section, followed by China dominates.

Very little mention of Tesla.

New York Times very obvious. It is always like focusing on Nokia and Motorola and ignoring Apple. Just because "ad dollars"

And I'm a huge fan of the Times... just so disappointed in their ad driven auto reporting.

View attachment 637203

100% Agreed. There was a spread on Bill Gates working on the climate issue yesterday and the first lines were literally a slap at Musk without mentioning his name. Love the Times generally, sometimes hate the times.
 
Yep, sounds like a complete breakdown of the energy production infrastructure. I’ve read about frozen natural gas valves, frozen wind turbines and even a nuke went off-line. We’ll see what we learn after the thaw.
So is TX suddenly the coldest place on earth? Naah ...
So must be missing protocols like deicing, salting etc. that do not happen because this is so much unexpected weather. cheers!!
 
Within the past year the two largest and most populous states in the US have both experienced extreme weather that meant losing power for extended periods of time. So, is anyone else really F-ing bullish on demand for home solar, power walls, and grid storage?

Full bore, double barrel assaults across the media as to how renewables and heat pumps are to blame for the disaster in Texas. The wind turbines are frozen and all the solar cells are covered in snow. If coal and NG were still around, this would have been no problem.

Most Texans will believe just that.

We have a lot of work to do.
 
100% Agreed. There was a spread on Bill Gates working on the climate issue yesterday and the first lines were literally a slap at Musk without mentioning his name. Love the Times generally, sometimes hate the times.

The Times reliably engages in yellow journalism and talks its book relentlessly.

It’s supporters are among the most sanctimonious. I write as a life long reader who subscribes to the print edition.

The populace needs to be educated enough to evaluate each article and reporter independently. It most certainly is not.
 
The smart ones will....I live in the DFW area and have seen a lot of people on my social media say "stupid wind mills" and "see, this is why we need coal."

It's depressing.....sigh...
Agreed, but I think there will be enough smart ones to keep companies like Tesla production-constrained for a while. By that time the stupid ones will start to get onboard too.
 
I guess Ferrari already took away the stock with their newest Roma. Basically the same idea as the new Model S/X except a complete mess and with cheap Chinese Android lag. This interior is worst than the S/X in almost everyway.


But with it's crumple zone half the length of the car it will be the safest Ferrari ever built. :rolleyes:
Plus, if owners decide they don't really like driving an EV, Ferrari can swap out the battery and have
plenty of room to replace it with a V12.
 
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But with it's crumple zone half the length of the car it will be the safest Ferrari ever built. :rolleyes:
Plus, if owners decide they don't really like driving an EV, Ferrari can swap out the battery and have
plenty of room to replace it with a V12.

I wish the exterior of the Tesla Model S looked more like the Ferrari Roma!

I love the new S interior, but the exterior is so boring. So I am waiting for the Roadster, now THAT is a beautiful car. By the time it arrives, I hope my kids will still be small enough to fit in the back!
 
I wish the exterior of the Tesla Model S looked more like the Ferrari Roma!

I love the new S interior, but the exterior is so boring. So I am waiting for the Roadster, now THAT is a beautiful car. By the time it arrives, I hope my kids will still be small enough to fit in the back!

No thanks about the Roma. Interior is way too small.

There are some neat body kits for the Model S.

Here’s a crazy expensive one (interior and exterior)

https://www.motortrend.com/news/unplugged-performance-rolls-out-tesla-model-s-widebody-kit/

I do agree the new roadster is very beautiful.
 
Within the past year the two largest and most populous states in the US have both experienced extreme weather that meant losing power for extended periods of time. So, is anyone else really friggin bullish on demand for home solar, power walls, and grid storage?



Quite a few of us speculated that 1 million was probably the internal stretch goal based on Elon's semi-response when asked during the P&D call. I figure that's the good case if Berlin and maybe Austin come online at China speed.
Interestingly, from the numbers it looks as if neither Berlin or Austin would be required to hit 1M as long as the S/X line gets back to speed quickly and delivers 60k+ vehicles this year. However with all the recent ER references to logistics issues I get the impression that the Tesla factories may still be constrained by other parts of the supply chain.
 
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I'm quoting this as I can't find the original note about some severe weather in Austin.

It is worth noting that much of this structural steel work is rather impervious to cold weather. While the factory is only currently partially enclosed, I doubt we will see much, if any delay. Some of the work will likely slow and I highly doubt any of the equipment is rated for cold weather use, but consider a few things;

1. Portable heaters/tarps can be trucked to the site in a matter of hours and entire portions of the factory could be walled off and maintained at a certain temperature.
2. All they have to do is keep the equipment running (Sorry, Environment) to prevent anything from freezing up overnight as far as anything that requires the use of a diesel engine to move or lift something.

Cold weather work is nothing special. The official "shutdown" temperature for some sites I've been on in northern Alberta is -40C/-40F. Anything above that, we're building the widget*. It takes some planning of course, but it basically involves some form of the two listed items above. Concrete can and is regularly poured in negative temps, steel, as I mentioned earlier is largely impervious. Very cold or hot temps may impact the ability to establish bolted connections, but this is more problematic for say a, long span bridge connection, and not this simple work.

I'm honestly not worried about Austin slowing down. I'm sure the contractor is sufficiently motivated through damages clauses to figure out how to hold the schedule and will employ any tool or technique they can to deal with a short term chill. I realize the infrastructure in Texas is not the same as Alberta, but Construction in general is good at mobilizing resources quickly.

*Some processes that involve water typically shut down at sustained temps below 0C, but that is more related to road building, not building building.

Whoa! You skipped a step. The workers in their RWD one and half ton pickup trucks have to arrive at the site on a nearly impassable frozen concrete tollway 130, oh tonight we are getting snow than sleet on top of said frozen tollway 130. But don't worry, its expected to be above freezing this Friday and 60s this weekend.