Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[brianhn1]

It is likely that the Q1 Model Y order book is now full.

Tesla is probably hoping some intended Q1 SR Model Y buyers covert to a Q1 SR Model 3.

I think you're right, demand for 3 is soft vs Y. I think Elon will eventually pivot the machine so it will produce 3 and Y on the same lines since S and X is supposedly on one line now. Order book therefore will never need to be throttled.

The other side may be that Tesla is trying this to make sure buyers jump on SR Y when its available and not wait. Infinite availability be damned.

 

[Singuy]

It is likely that the Q1 Model Y order book is now full.

Tesla is probably hoping some intended Q1 SR Model Y buyers covert to a Q1 SR Model 3.

Sometimes demand lever work too well, but the aim for Q1 was to sell all Q1 production with cars that can be delivered.

Complicating factors were:-

• Possible short-term cell supply issues?
• Winter storms impacting on shipping logistics?
• Q1 lower seasonal demand
• Looming tax credit.

For Q2, most of those factors no longer exist, unless the tax credit legislation drags on for a long time,.

My best guess is SR Model Y might come back with 4680 cells, and closer to 300 miles of range, at a suitable time in the future.

We don't know what is happening with Panasonic ramping additional additional cell production and 4680 cell production at Nevada.
But if we speculate that at some time in the future Panasonic and Tesla will be producing sufficient 4680 cells for all vehicles.
When that happens we will see more stability in variants produced, and likely more variants...
More variants does complicate delivery logistics, but more factories tends to cancel that out, with 4 factories producing Model Y and Model 3, it is likely we will have more choice.

That is where Tesla is heading, short term they take the odd detour, as circumstances change.

Elon was like "sr+ orders looking pretty full, let's drop the price for a day to fill it for no good reason cause I'm too busy tweeting about doge".

 

[PeterJA]

It does give the impression of disorganized decision making.

Or maybe rapid decision-making based on new info that we don't know.

Or a clever plot to keep Tesla constantly in the news and argumentosphere without advertising.

Or a diabolical plot to sprain the necks of bears forced to pivot from claiming weak demand to trying to explain Tesla's shift to higher priced models.

 

[wtlloyd]

Sometimes demand lever work too well, but the aim for Q1 was to sell all Q1 production with cars that can be delivered.

This! They possibly chose to harvest holdouts who wanted SR models, and allowed the book to fill to the point they could select enough close delivery orders to maximize Q1 numbers.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So what's your guess? A bunch of SPAC acquisitions announced this week?

He does love his SPACs. He also had a carbon reduction competition a few months ago. I love the guy, but I find him pretty short-term unpredictable.

 

[Words of HABIT]

For those of you wishing to take your mind off Bitcoin, Forks and Model Y SR availability, the new 2020 Movie "Tesla", bioptic tracks inventor Nikola Tesla during a creative period in his life, is now available for viewing on Netflix. Enjoy.
I'm just starting to watch it now, so no comment so far.

 

[OrthoSurg]

How do you guys think the market will react to the removal of the Model Y SR? On one hand, it will be great for ASP and margins, but on the other it seems a bit amateurish of Tesla to release it ~1.5 months ago, lower the price a few days ago and now remove it altogether. I don’t know what to expect tomorrow morning.

That would have been nice just to release a statement that it will be discontinued in 5 days. So people who were going to buy it could pull the trigger. Removing it like this without warning might leave some buyers with bitter taste. My wife wanted to order the 7 seater SR RWD Model Y, I wanted the AWD LR. I was going to order Monday because I wanted to take delivery after March 15th to avoid switching for snow tires. Just tried the 7 seater Tuesday with the kids to see if its big enough for them and it was perfect.

now I don’t have to hesitate between buying the 7 seater AWD LR at $85,000 or the RWD SR at $60,000 after incentives.

 

[brianhn1]

What if Dojo becomes decentralized? Run Dojo on Tesla Solar at home 4 Doge(coin)?

Solves the issue with where Dojo gets its power?

 

[ZeApelido]

For those of you wishing to take your mind off Bitcoin, Forks and Model Y SR availability, the new 2020 Movie "Tesla", bioptic tracks inventor Nikola Tesla during a creative period in his life, is now available for viewing on Netflix. Enjoy.
I'm just starting to watch it now, so no comment so far.

Not to be confused with the 2021 Mocumentary: "Trevor"

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon was like "sr+ orders looking pretty full, let's drop the price for a day to fill it for no good reason cause I'm too busy tweeting about doge".

if SR Y orders were close to full, I don't think we would have got the price drop.

Filling orders around now gives 5 weeks to build and deliver the cars.

A 2 week delay means only 3 weeks, which rules out some destinations...

However, I did give you a funny as Elon is spending a lot of time tweeting about Crypto.

When we look at the big picture, the things that are important, are in great shape;-

• margins/operating leverage - financial trends
• Product mix factory construction - growing revenues
• FSD progress and general preparations for Robo-Taxis
• Battery Day and 4680 cell production..

So Tesla gets most things right, (currently) even if occasionally they (arguably) get one or two small things wrong.

Taking those 1-2 small things in sequence.

BTC there is no real evidence Tesla has got this wrong, regardless, it is a rounding error compared to the list above.

Model Y SR, again thee is no real evidence Tesla has got this wrong, and it is a rounding error on a rounding error.

Things are going well, when we are mostly debating small issues of no lasting importance.

 

[EVWatcher]

What if Dojo becomes decentralized? Run Dojo on Tesla Solar at home 4 Doge(coin)?

Solves the issue with where Dojo gets its power?

DOJO is as much a specialized hardware problem as a software problem. This just wouldn't be possible

 

[Singuy]

if SR Y orders were close to full, I don't think we would have got the price drop.

Filling orders around now gives 5 weeks to build and deliver the cars.

A 2 week delay means only 3 weeks, which rules out some destinations...

However, I did give you a funny as Elon is spending a lot of time tweeting about Crypto.

When we look at the big picture, the things that are important, are in great shape;-

• margins/operating leverage - financial trends
• Product mix factory construction - growing revenues
• FSD progress and general preparations for Robo-Taxis
• Battery Day and 4680 cell production..

So Tesla gets most things right, (currently) even if occasionally they (arguably) get one or two small things wrong.

Taking those 1-2 small things in sequence.

BTC there is no real evidence Tesla has got this wrong, regardless, it is a rounding error compared to the list above.

Model Y SR, again thee is no real evidence Tesla has got this wrong, and it is a rounding error on a rounding error.

Things are going well, when we are mostly debating small issues of no lasting importance.

Think at this point it's useless to spend all this energy to figure out teslas intentions with a bullish narrative. Tomorrow Tesla can bring sr back..who knows.

 

[amolina]

Bloomberg published this article
Inflation Angst Is About to Rewrite the Stock Market Playbook

Since its behind a paywall, find below the most important thing to think about.

"While inflation’s ramifications for the broader market are not straightforward, a look under the surface shows investors are preparing for the outcome by favoring companies with high operating leverage, or the ability to extract profits from revenue.

While both sales and input costs tend to increase when inflation rises, companies with strong leverage potentially offer a safer trade. The reason is: the effect of growing revenue would outweigh the production costs."

Which company do we know has the best operating leverage in the market? if only it was a known fact. Not to fuel the fire further, but certain 8% of the balance sheet is supposedly a great hedge for that inflation as well, or so I have heard

 

[amolina]

I am not sure if this was posted when it came out

This video really shines with the left unprotected turns. It has already improved compared to the previous versions a hell lot.
Super excited about the next release which is supposedly a step change. It's going to floor everybody

 

[JustMe]

Not to be confused with the 2021 Mocumentary: "Trevor"

When it comes to technological innovation, Trevor turned the dial up to 1.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Bloomberg published this article
Inflation Angst Is About to Rewrite the Stock Market Playbook

Since its behind a paywall, find below the most important thing to think about.

"While inflation’s ramifications for the broader market are not straightforward, a look under the surface shows investors are preparing for the outcome by favoring companies with high operating leverage, or the ability to extract profits from revenue.

While both sales and input costs tend to increase when inflation rises, companies with strong leverage potentially offer a safer trade. The reason is: the effect of growing revenue would outweigh the production costs."

Which company do we know has the best operating leverage in the market? if only it was a known fact. Not to fuel the fire further, but certain 8% of the balance sheet is supposedly a great hedge for that inflation as well, or so I have heard

Watch the scramble for crypto for no other reason than the appearance of anti-inflationary properties.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I know that we’ve discussed TE contributions to the financials in the past, but here’s a fairly detailed article from the overall market perspective.
California’s Battery Cavalry Arrives, But Maybe Not Soon Enough | GTM Squared

While we're on the topic of California batteries, Bay Area-based Tesla posted its full-year 2020 earnings Wednesday. The car business always gets most of the love, but a few facts jumped out from the energy side.

Tesla straight-up doubled its energy storage shipments quarter-over-quarter to move 1,584 megawatt-hours in the fourth quarter. For the full year of 2020, Tesla delivered 3 gigawatt-hours of battery storage, which happens to match all the battery capacity installed in the entire U.S. last year, according to Wood Mackenzie's tally. That's not to say Tesla has that kind of market share — it ships all over the world, not just to the U.S. But it's remarkable to see one company moving that kind of volume when stationary storage is essentially its side hustle.

Whether it's a profitable side hustle remains to be seen. Tesla reported $752 million in revenue from solar and storage for the quarter, but the cost of that revenue was $787 million. That performance didn't put much of a dent in the booming vehicle sales, which led to the company's $2 billion gross profit for the year. But it shows that moving lots of units at competitive prices is not the same thing as running a successful business.

In previous quarters, Tesla's energy business generated slightly more money than it spent. But the company doesn't break out specific data for the division, so it's hard to tell how much the solar or battery side is weighing things down.

 

[c041v]

I am guessing an announcement of a merger between one of his existing SPACs and a very surprising company. I have no idea what that company would be, but just my guess on his meaning.

A friend thinks (through a trading discord) that Tesla is going to announce something with TRCH/MMAT (Torchlight Energy and Metamaterials)

Note that MMAT lists an address in the same building as Jeff Dahn's Lab in Halifax. I said it was coincidence, but maybe not?

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/newsdamian/status/1363665032391708672?s=21

4.0 quake in Gilroy, CA. ~50 mi from Fremont.

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/newsdamian/status/1363665032391708672?s=21

4.0 quake in Gilroy, CA. ~50 mi from Fremont.

Already downgraded to 3.9.... it's exceedingly rare for that small a quake to cause any sort of damage at all

Remember the scale is logarithmic