Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Anybody have any guesses as to what the huge volume spike at 10:34am EST was? That spike in volume is extremely noticeable IMO.

 

[traxila]

Folks, be careful out there. We know big auto is having supply chain problems due to semiconductor shortage. And Texas plants last week shut down making it even worse. These supply shortages could very well, and if fact I would argue, is likely to affect Tesla as well. THAT could be the reason for the standard range Model Y pull back. They are reserving chips for higher margin cars. If so, this isn't a good short term sign. It means Tesla production and top line sales would suffer until this chip shortage is resolved.

Was wondering myself about that.

Difference is that Tesla has always been planning to ramp at 50%. The problem that I have read for the OEMs is that the chip manufacturers reached out to them for commitments during the COVID crash and they refused to commit to any quantities. Then the chip manufacturers were overwhelmed for chip orders for booming industries like the straight PCs.

Tesla has been quiet on this, but I am hoping that they reaffirmed the chips they wanted and should have less of a problem than the OEMs.

 

[asburgers]

I'm no expert in macros etc but I do follow this guy Mohamed El-Erian on twitter and here is what he says. A lot of the macro activity seems to be related to the rise in 10-year yields. Mohamed seems to think it's a factor of how much of rise we are seeing in the yield.

Mohamed pretty much called the bottom during covid crash and also predicted a V shaped recovery. Definitely a great follow if you are looking to understand macros.

https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1363830288594309121?s=20

He's very good for sure.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Anybody have any guesses as to what the huge volume spike at 10:34am EST was? That spike in volume is extremely noticeable IMO.

A massive position being liquidated at $750? It's a big spike relatively speaking, but still only 950k shares. Someone selling(or shorting!) ~600k shares or thereabouts?

 

[Singuy]

Folks, be careful out there. We know big auto is having supply chain problems due to semiconductor shortage. And Texas plants last week shut down making it even worse. These supply shortages could very well, and if fact I would argue, is likely to affect Tesla as well. THAT could be the reason for the standard range Model Y pull back. They are reserving chips for higher margin cars. If so, this isn't a good short term sign. It means Tesla production and top line sales would suffer until this chip shortage is resolved.

Why cancel the sr+ for Ys and not sr+ for the 3 if there's a chip shortage? Tesla not a fan of making more money? Also why the price drops? It's conflicting when we speculate that there's not enough chips to go around but then pull demand levers?

Also they can always leave order page up but just extend delivery dates if there's a chip shortage.

 

[gabeincal]

Fremont Flyover - Feb 21, 2021

• Some S & X found but I haven't checked whether they're the refreshed models. Very hard to see the models while flying. Will go back in about a week and take more time checking the interior of the cars if I can.
• Small building on top of Roadrunner seems relatively finished. Lots of new hardware on top of the large Roadrunner building.

Enjoy

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla has been quiet on this, but I am hoping that they reaffirmed the chips they wanted and should have less of a problem than the OEMs.

Also our needs in absolute terms are a tiny compared to other players in the market.
Also Elon will certainly leverage our growth prospects via threats to curtail future business with suppliers.

I'm unconcerned, though it's a perfectly valid time for a temp check. I get the feeling this "chip shortage" is 50% real and 50% an excuse to trim production in the face of dwindling demand. Again, a storyline a bit too convenient for my palate.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I don't buy this "too many orders for SR, and that hits margins" argument. If you have too many orders for a lower margin product (compared to a higher margin product) you simply raise the price to get the right margins. For example if the margins on LR is $3k and SR is only $1.5K, then just increase the price of SR by $1.5K.

In that case, some will stick to SR with the increased price and some will upscale to LR, and some will cancel. On the other hand Tesla has cancelled SR and decreased the price of LR by $1K. A better option would have been to increase the price of SR by $1K while decreasing the price of LR by $1K.

Makes sense to me, unless the number of orders for SR grew so fast they were overwhelming, which is unlikely. I actually do not appreciate having to do detective work for something like this. It's frustrating as a customer and an investor.

 

[stealthyc]

You say that like I don't know or wasn't invested back then. Frankly the warnings about call options are annoying as hell and played out. This comes up every single time

Yes options are risky. Be a big boy and don't pee the bed.

I don't say that like you don't know or weren't invested back then, because I have no idea what you have or haven't done. What you stated was "I can nearly guarantee this will pay off in spades" to someone asking a question about a call purchase, and ostensibly as evidence highlighted that call options were ridiculously profitable in a given timeframe of a massive bull run.

Frankly I think bragging about huge call gains during that time frame is also annoying as hell and played out. Yes, all of us who invested that way have had massive, often life-changing returns, and we are all very pleased. The thing is that not everyone coming in here and trying to glean information is an expert or knows about option risks. Warnings are meant for them, not you.

 

[Ameliorate]

Anybody have any guesses as to what the huge volume spike at 10:34am EST was? That spike in volume is extremely noticeable IMO.

View attachment 638875

That was all the stop loss orders @ 750.

 

[Willrtsoon]

Why cancel the sr+ for Ys and not sr+ for the 3 if there's a chip shortage? Tesla not a fan of making more money? Also why the price drops? It's conflicting when we speculate that there's not enough chips to go around but then pull demand levers?

Also they can always leave order page up but just extend delivery dates if there's a chip shortage.

Perhaps model2 $25 thousands car Announcing for reservations soon!

 

[JusRelax]

That was all the stop loss orders @ 750.

Great answer, I think you're spot on. Thanks!

 

[Singuy]

Perhaps model2 $25 thousands car Announcing for reservations soon!

Impossible. That's Osborne city while the Y is not even close to being ramped.

All this 25k car and tax credit coming soon are all going into the FUD category as they do nothing but Osborne sales.

 

[CatB]

I’ve recently bought at $796, $779 & $765. I’m really bad at catching falling knives

Me too, except I am just trying to time transfer of shares into a conversion Roth - hate to pay taxes on those shares that are now worth less...

 

[Curt Renz]

InsideEVs - today: PG&E's Gigantic Battery (256 Tesla Megapacks) In California Nears Completion

Excerpt:

Once completed, it will be - at least for a while - the world's largest battery energy storage system.

Thank's to the new drone video from EKMMetering, we can take another look at the Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) battery energy storage (ESS) project in Moss Landing, California, which soon should be completed.

Most of the construction and deployment of 256 Tesla Megapacks seems to be completed. The battery systems are still under cover, but soon it should be connected to the grid to provide a total of 182.5 MW of power and 730 MWh of energy capacity.

 

[asburgers]

If higher interest is likely, does that mean having $20B in cash/bitcoin is better than huge debt?

Year ago...

View attachment 638874

I guess if the macro dive is caused by inflation concerns, shouldn't consumer staples/goods equities be supported by that? Regarding raising rates, JPOW and JYELL has been public about not being concerned with inflation in recent times - so low rates are here to stay.

This leaves the US balance sheet, which continues to expand without signs of slowing down.

So if both fiscal and monetary policy are expansionary; and inflation does not appear to be a short/mid term concern - what's the driver?

The other factor: COVID stance appears to be more slightly optimistic than pessimistic.

Federal Reserve Board - Recent balance sheet trends

 

[Nocturnal]

Congress needs to get off it's collectively worthless behind and get the EV tax credit passed.

Talga and Novinix are my only green today.

I agree, they may be diverting more cell production to Powerwalls. Considering that it has taken Tesla 3 years+ since I put down my Powerwall deposit (they never responded), and the local Tesla approved installer took 14 months to finally install them after I signed the contract, there must be a HUGE backlog of Powerwall orders. My installer told me that they have 155 installations waiting, but Tesla is only shipping them 2 or 3 Powerwalls at a time. For many customers it also meant holding up their solar installation, but this company finally decided to just install the solar and all the needed electrical panels, and come back later to install the Powerwalls when they come in. Florida could be a HUGE Powerwall opportunity, if they only had enough cells.

I'm getting quoted on a solar roof with powerwall system. The installer said that they believe Tesla was holding back powerwalls to install along with the roofs, but otherwise it was a long time to get them. (which makes sense)

 

[SpaceCash]

I don't say that like you don't know or weren't invested back then, because I have no idea what you have or haven't done. What you stated was "I can nearly guarantee this will pay off in spades" to someone asking a question about a call purchase, and ostensibly as evidence highlighted that call options were ridiculously profitable in a given timeframe of a massive bull run.

Frankly I think bragging about huge call gains during that time frame is also annoying as hell and played out. Yes, all of us who invested that way have had massive, often life-changing returns, and we are all very pleased. The thing is that not everyone coming in here and trying to glean information is an expert or knows about option risks. Warnings are meant for them, not you.

The individual I replied to was asking whether he placed his order correctly and I affirmed that he had, and patted him on the back for his fairly-safe and likely-profitable choice.

You have a very limited post history so yes I'm gonna jump on you when you pop out with a textbook warning about options.
This stuff is basic. What you're doing is analogous to if this were say a gun forum, and every time someone relayed a story about a recent trip to the range you harangued them about the inherent risk in shooting anything.

This is an investor forum. People know.
I turned $10k into $2million in 18 months and almost always announced my trades including my losses. If people had followed and mimicked my trades they would have done extremely well.

 

[Hock1]

I’ve recently bought at $796, $779 & $765. I’m really bad at catching falling knives

Actually, it seems you are quite good at catching falling knives. The saying is: "DON'T try to catch a falling knife". I.e., wait for the bottom. Oh well, maybe a lesson learned.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Impossible. That's Osborne city while the Y is not even close to being ramped.

All this 25k car and tax credit coming soon are all going into the FUD category as they do nothing but Osborne sales.

You're in the groove today and in tight connection with the universe. Reality is being blurred like mad since the new year, please continue to add clarity!

I think this thread is getting way too ADHD r/wsb impatient relative to previous years. Model Y isn't even ramped and for some reason people want a Model 2? THERE IS NO DEMAND PROBLEM. Why on Earth would we rush into building Civics? Where would we build them?

We're forgetting two massive things IMO:

1) The Model Y is going to eat the Earth. If you haven't seen this up close, then you won't get it. Not even a particularly handsome vehicle, it's just so perfect for families that it's going to be what the station wagon was in my childhood. You just had one.

2) The Master Plan is to move the whole market forward. Yes Elon has mentioned many times a Model 2 style $25k vehicle, I don't think that necessarily means he wants to build one. Tesla nearly doubling the next two years is quite clearly creating the global tipping point for every legacy manufacturer to transition or die. When they start building crappy EV Civics and EV Corollas, the mission is accomplished. Elon has no interest in making all the cars in the world, Energy is the real monster target.