Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

I’ve recently bought at $796, $779 & $765. I’m really bad at catching falling knives

 

[Singuy]

What's the macro driver today? I am unable to find anything coherent other than a "case of the Mondays".

Tech rotation. All covid tech stocks are tanking while covid recovery stocks are getting love. This happened many times in the past when covud numbers come down.

 

[keydiver]

Best answer so far...
People are freezing or burning, either way batteries needed. I bet this is a shift in response to serious new orders on Powerwalls and Megapacks.

I agree, they may be diverting more cell production to Powerwalls. Considering that it has taken Tesla 3 years+ since I put down my Powerwall deposit (they never responded), and the local Tesla approved installer took 14 months to finally install them after I signed the contract, there must be a HUGE backlog of Powerwall orders. My installer told me that they have 155 installations waiting, but Tesla is only shipping them 2 or 3 Powerwalls at a time. For many customers it also meant holding up their solar installation, but this company finally decided to just install the solar and all the needed electrical panels, and come back later to install the Powerwalls when they come in. Florida could be a HUGE Powerwall opportunity, if they only had enough cells.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

What's the macro driver today?

From what I can tell, interest rates are ticking up

 

[insaneoctane]

Market Manipulators goal will be to try to use the low volume and restricted trading priviledge of the pre-Market to drive the SP below critical support levels. If they can get it to Open below these levels, they become a ceiling rather than a floor.

Classic manipulation, and the #SEC does nothing, ever.

#CONGRESSIONALOVERSIGHT

About the only thing we can do when this happens is capitalize on their manipulation by buying the dip.

 

[asburgers]

Tech rotation. All covid tech stocks are tanking while covid recovery stocks are getting love. This happened many times in the past when covud numbers come down.

I'm trying to work out the clues in the bond market and Burry's cryptic tweets alluding to USD implosion. I will limit my sodium intake if someone can ELI20.

 

[AimStellar]

I buy TSLA on days that end in Y...

First time buying/selling an option... Did I screw up? Please be honest.

 

[Krugerrand]

So if I invest the money from the kids college fund and then buy even more on margin, does that mean my kids have to stop school in 8th grade if stock keeps going down?

And get jobs.

 

[SpaceCash]

I buy TSLA on days that end in Y...

First time buying/selling an option... Did I screw up? Please be honest.

Ya done good! I can nearly guarantee this will pay off in spades. I was over 99% invested in TSLA calls, mostly leaps, from mid 2019 to Dec 2020. My return percentage has been so ridiculous it sounds like a fantasy.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

When $TSLA hit $735....i wanted to email and call the SEC to halt trading!

 

[stealthyc]

Ya done good! I can nearly guarantee this will pay off in spades. I was over 99% invested in TSLA calls, mostly leaps, from mid 2019 to Dec 2020. My return percentage has been so ridiculous it sounds like a fantasy.

Had you been 99% invested in TSLA calls a few years prior you would have lost so much money it would have sounded like a nightmare. Just a reminder that stocks don't always go up, even in a multi year timeframe.

 

[elasalle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/21/stock-market-open-to-close-news.html

All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who delivers his semi-annual testimony on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. His comments on rates and inflation could determine the market direction for the week

We do not see the recent increase in yields as a threat to the bull market,” Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist, said in a note. “Given that we are in the early stages of an economic recovery, monetary and fiscal policy remains supportive, the sharp rebound in earnings, and favorable relative valuations, we maintain our overweight to equities

 

[vikings123]

Tech rotation. All covid tech stocks are tanking while covid recovery stocks are getting love. This happened many times in the past when covud numbers come down.

I'm no expert in macros etc but I do follow this guy Mohamed El-Erian on twitter and here is what he says. A lot of the macro activity seems to be related to the rise in 10-year yields. Mohamed seems to think it's a factor of how much of rise we are seeing in the yield.

Mohamed pretty much called the bottom during covid crash and also predicted a V shaped recovery. Definitely a great follow if you are looking to understand macros.

https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1363830288594309121?s=20

 

[SpaceCash]

Had you been 99% invested in TSLA calls a few years prior you would have lost so much money it would have sounded like a nightmare. Just a reminder that stocks don't always go up, even in a multi year timeframe.

You say that like I don't know or wasn't invested back then. Frankly the warnings about call options are annoying as hell and played out. This comes up every single time

Yes options are risky. Be a big boy and don't pee the bed.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm no expert in macros etc but I do follow this guy Mohamed El-Erian on twitter and here is what he says. A lot of the macro activity seems to be related to the rise in 10-year yields. Mohamed seems to think it's a factor of how much of rise we are seeing in the yield.

Mohamed pretty much called the bottom during covid crash and also predicted a V shaped recovery. Definitely a great follow if you are looking to understand macros.

https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1363830288594309121?s=20

I know im getting old but i kinda remember this dude saying not to buy the crash as there was more red coming....

 

[elasalle]

Added 4 more Mar 23 1200's. @SP 744

This is all monies from sold CC's when IV was 95+ and SP 850+ (so worth the risk)

 

[Cosmacelf]

Folks, be careful out there. We know big auto is having supply chain problems due to semiconductor shortage. And Texas plants last week shut down making it even worse. These supply shortages could very well, and if fact I would argue, is likely to affect Tesla as well. THAT could be the reason for the standard range Model Y pull back. They are reserving chips for higher margin cars. If so, this isn't a good short term sign. It means Tesla production and top line sales would suffer until this chip shortage is resolved.

 

[asburgers]

Folks, be careful out there. We know big auto is having supply chain problems due to semiconductor shortage. And Texas plants last week shut down making it even worse. These supply shortages could very well, and if fact I would argue, is likely to affect Tesla as well. THAT could be the reason for the standard range Model Y pull back. They are reserving chips for higher margin cars. If so, this isn't a good short term sign. It means Tesla production and top line sales would suffer until this chip shortage is resolved.

What's puzzling about this chip shortage is that TSM hasn't appreciated more with expansion on the horizon (and potential Biden admin boost).

 

[Electroman]

They are reserving chips for higher margin cars. If so, this isn't a good short term sign. It means Tesla production and top line sales would suffer until this chip shortage is resolved.

I don't buy this "too many orders for SR, and that hits margins" argument. If you have too many orders for a lower margin product (compared to a higher margin product) you simply raise the price to get the right margins. For example if the margins on LR is $3k and SR is only $1.5K, then just increase the price of SR by $1.5K.

In that case, some will stick to SR with the increased price and some will upscale to LR, and some will cancel. On the other hand Tesla has cancelled SR and decreased the price of LR by $1K. A better option would have been to increase the price of SR by $1K while decreasing the price of LR by $1K.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'm no expert in macros etc but I do follow this guy Mohamed El-Erian on twitter and here is what he says. A lot of the macro activity seems to be related to the rise in 10-year yields. Mohamed seems to think it's a factor of how much of rise we are seeing in the yield.

Mohamed pretty much called the bottom during covid crash and also predicted a V shaped recovery. Definitely a great follow if you are looking to understand macros.

https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1363830288594309121?s=20

If higher interest is likely, does that mean having $20B in cash/bitcoin is better than huge debt?

Year ago...