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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Just amazing that the experienced battery manufactures are all jumping on board with this design so quickly. I just find it hard to believe as the experts in batteries they did not come up with something similar on their own.

I hope Tesla is a least getting some exclusivity for these batteries for some time. I have not see anything to indicate that there is any restriction on the use of this technology. Elon probably let it go easy as it supports the mission they know they will still struggle to keep up with the demand if the battery costs really fall by 56%.
My hope is that Tesla licensed the technology to the battery manufacturers so that other EV makers may have easy access to the benefits, AND Tesla nets a little profit from every competing EV manufacturer who buy them.

Also, I kinda think that tabless 4680s made by the big 3 (Pana, LG, CATL) won't have the magical dry innards. That will be Tesla's secret sauce (or lack of sauce as it were) that gives them an edge in the marketplace with continued better performance from a Tesla.

Cha-ching!
 
Based on his description, Dojo is most likely going to be specific to Tesla's entire software stack while seemingly only relying on little public code (like PyTorch) so it won't be easily copied.

I had a very different take-away from the discussion, but admittedly I could have misunderstood him. Rather, Jim seemed to imply that Dojo was meant as a more general solution based on a blue-sky approach as to what was possible (i.e., that Dojo would have more than one customer). He was involved at the early stages, but he did not know what Dojo is at this point because of multiple pivots.

Also, I don't believe that he said that Lattner is involved in Tenstorrent, Jim's new outfit. Rather, that Jim put on a conference last year that both Lattner and Karpathy were involved in.
 
What the heck is this?
- ramp to drive up so it is for finished cars
- roof only makes sense if car stays there for a while
- hole in base so car can be accessed from below

Return of the battery swap??? Doesn´t make sense after they abandoned it before...
Does anyone have a better idea?

View attachment 639638
(4 min into the video)
it’s one of the points the ?GCU? “sleeper service” displaces to and from
( i recall Elon was tweeting about Iain M Banks novel “Excession” recently)
 
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Understandable, but I think that what @Todd Burch is saying is that if you're already 95%+ all-in on TSLA (like many of us), and your dollar cost basis is in the $50/share range, then this ISN'T a dip. :p

YMMY. Difference may be that Todd won't sell at a (perceived) top either, because he (like many of us) has a decade-long investment horizon. Each of us has unique goals. To me, HODL is the surest path to wealth long-term.

Cheers!
i keep buying dips and my DCA per share keeps going up ... now has crept over $100 /share was around $50 a year ago but i a have 1.5X shares ... however my thinking is when i need to sell some shares down the road i don't want them all to be 90% taxed as LT CG ... need to keep "expensive shares" to provide flexibility around the future tax burden ...

the under $50/share lots are going to be huuuge cap gains... my lot range is now from $36./share- $751/share

"wait what i am talking about the shares i bought yesterday will be huge gains in 5-10 years" o_O .... still buying the " relative" dips:D

as ever HODL
 
The home team jumped to an early lead then nearly gave it all away before going Plaid and pulling away for a big win over the hapless Bears, ending a four game losing streak. While many fans twisted their ankles jumping off the bandwagon during the losing streak, the long term season ticket holders were rewarded with a wire to wire blowout victory.

Today

Score
: 742.02
Margin of W/L: 43.18
Attendance: 36,465,698

Season
Record
: 20-16
Total points in wins: 429.06
Total points in losses: -392.71
YTD gain/loss: 36.35 5.15%
Avg points per win: 21.45
Avg points per loss: -24.54
Best W: 63.98 2021-01-08
Worst L: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 4-6
Streak: W1
 
Once again, Lex and Jim Keller knock it out of the park. This was a great talk that covered many topics and to listen to it, you really get a great idea of what Jim is like in his entirety.

Also, I'm finding it a bit hard to describe the talk in a way that is approachable to this audience, but here goes...

TL;DListen - Dojo is a game changer for FSD as it will be 10X to 1M times more efficient while being less risky and way more scalable to solve FSD.

More details below...

Why? GPU's or other options are not designed for just solving FSD or even solving FSD the exact way that Tesla wants to solve it. When Tesla started the process of trying to solve FSD, they had no idea if or when or how often they would hit 'local maximiums' (also known as failing and 'hitting a wall' where the code would never get any better; one step forward and one step back). Building something like Dojo solves or is the least painful and/or quickest path to solving FSD as well as most likely being the cheapest. Dojo will work seamlessly with their inference chip (the chip that is in the car) to do inference as well as possibly other tasks (I won't go into that now). These chips working together also solves huge bottlenecks as iteration time is greatly reduced from training to inference as well as cost and quality. Engineers can spend more time solving FSD rather than solving infrastructure issues like throughput constraints or data quality or data structure or data cleansing...etc

Dojo will be the hardware and the entire software stack that is purpose built for one and only one purpose; Solve FSD. This is super exciting as there is nothing like in the custom chip (ASIC or other kind of chip) world. It will NOT be easily copied and sounds like they are thinking about chip scale, machine scale and network scale all as 'first class citizens' (or 'native' or maybe a better way to say this is 'No bull sh$t other code or HW that will slow down the one and only purpose of the chip).

Here's a bit more detail....Jim is building a new processor at his new company with none other than Chris Lattner (decorated senior engineer who had a stint at Tesla as well as built key parts of the Google TPU stack). Jims' new processors may or may not be specific to any single goal. He didn't say, but the compelling aspect of Dojo, in his description, has gone through 2 iterations (he calls them pivots) from when he was at Tesla.

Jim's description of what a great custom ASIC is like, is very interesting and I think, the meat of this interview for this audience.

Based on his description, Dojo is most likely going to be specific to Tesla's entire software stack while seemingly only relying on little public code (like PyTorch) so it won't be easily copied. This is key as it means once they have built the software stack they can built out the HW to be flexible enough to avoid or mitigate bottlenecks in the hardware as well as the software. Today, when you hit bottleneck in hardware or software you are most likely going to have to live with it for at least until new hardware is released or even worse, it might be just a bottleneck that your team or company has hit and it is ONLY you who hit the bottleneck and you have to solve it yourself in software or hope/pray that you can convince the hardware company to fix it in their next or future revision of hardware. Tesla has effectively reduced this to a minimum as they own the whole stack (top to bottom).

If you've made it this far, maybe you might want more details and I'd be happy to, but maybe in another thread.

MODS: This may be of general interest to genpop , but off course, feel free to kick it to a sub-forum.

Thanks DD ! - great summary: Good level of detail combined with clear explanations.
Follow up question:
In similar projects of this magnitude what is the ballpark ratio of work used for data transfer, compression or bottleneck workarounds, as you describe it, compared to solving the actual problem (FSD)?
Clarification:
Did Keller really say 10- 1 million times faster/better or are you using your own background to evaluate the upper bound? Did he compare to the (in car) FSD version 3 chip efficiency, or to other ways of doing FSD (competitors)

Wild-eyed speculation: Perhaps Tenstorrent will built some kind of specialized compute unit which Tesla can use in DOJO? Perhaps made-to-order, Tesla-only. Perhaps not a main or bulk part but supplementary? I love Teslas vertical integration, but sometimes having a trusted partner is worth a lot.

General amazement:
I still find it hard to believe that DOJO is generic enough for other tasks. Elon said it could mine bitcoin, and your summary seems to imply a generic quality. To my limited understanding, FSD is (or was) considered so freaking hard that solving that requires specialized hardware - as evidenced by Tesla doing exactly that re. their custom car chips.
It also kind of doesn't make sense financially: Solving FSD is worth so much money, that even making a lot of bitcoins wouldn't really measure up. On the other hand, if solving FSD takes a number of years, and a huge amount of compute and custom chips, having some extra income is useful.

The only way that I can make sense of DOJO being generic is if DOJO is actually a trojan horse kind of tech for solving AGI !!
Is there a chance that this is actually what Tesla is trying to do? Or am I flying of a tangent here?
(How does that rhyme with Elons continued warnings about AI?)

Or, if DOJO does not solve AGI entirely, then solves an at least a large subset of AGI. Or perhaps doesn't quite solve, but boosts other known techniques by a significant order of magnitude - a kind of AGI runway. Which in the end may be the missing link for solving AGI ?..!
Maybe Elon concluded that FSD was close enough to AGI that he might as well solve for AGI. And then get FSD 'for free'.
If that is the case, then solving for a subset of AGI is worth a ... what is the level above?
Most of us are getting used to Tesla being 10+ startups. I used to think that solving FSD was worth a lot - to mankind, but also to us fans and investors. Solving AGI (or a significant subset) Danm! That is is 'huger than huge'.

If true, then someone PM Warren Redlich - his most crazy estimates are way too conservative!

(AGI: Artificial General Intelligence)
 
After-action Report: Wed, Feb 24, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Rebounds 20% from Yesterday's Low"

Pre-Market:
Volume: 2,010,390
SP High $732.10
SP Low $706.22​

Main Session:

Traded: $26,243,562,362.04 ($26.24B)
Volume: 36,379,808
VWAP: $721.38

Close: $742.02 / VWAP: 102.86%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $750 (-$25 from Tue)​

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.617061% (Feb 23)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $712.231B / 752.668B = 94.63%
NB: Yahoo & Google have updated Mkt Cap re 10-K shares (Feb 10, 2021)

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including 10-K (Feb 01) shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $784.14B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $552.70B

Mkt Cap req'd for 10th tranche ($550B) likely achieved yesterday Tue, Feb 23, 2021
Mkt Cap req'd for 9th tranche ($500B) likely achieved Wed, Feb 03, 2021
Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 46.0% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 54.2% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 5.27% of Short Volume (80th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 202102-24.png


QOTD: @Todd Burch 'Gary has the "opinions and analysis" of a tumbleweed'

Comment: "Character awareness is the 2nd step to Wisdom"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
 
MODS: This may be of general interest to genpop , but off course, feel free to kick it to a sub-forum.

Thanks DD ! - great summary: Good level of detail combined with clear explanations.
Follow up question:
In similar projects of this magnitude what is the ballpark ratio of work used for data transfer, compression or bottleneck workarounds, as you describe it, compared to solving the actual problem (FSD)?
Clarification:
Did Keller really say 10- 1 million times faster/better or are you using your own background to evaluate the upper bound? Did he compare to the (in car) FSD version 3 chip efficiency, or to other ways of doing FSD (competitors)

Wild-eyed speculation: Perhaps Tenstorrent will built some kind of specialized compute unit which Tesla can use in DOJO? Perhaps made-to-order, Tesla-only. Perhaps not a main or bulk part but supplementary? I love Teslas vertical integration, but sometimes having a trusted partner is worth a lot.

General amazement:
I still find it hard to believe that DOJO is generic enough for other tasks. Elon said it could mine bitcoin, and your summary seems to imply a generic quality. To my limited understanding, FSD is (or was) considered so freaking hard that solving that requires specialized hardware - as evidenced by Tesla doing exactly that re. their custom car chips.
It also kind of doesn't make sense financially: Solving FSD is worth so much money, that even making a lot of bitcoins wouldn't really measure up. On the other hand, if solving FSD takes a number of years, and a huge amount of compute and custom chips, having some extra income is useful.

The only way that I can make sense of DOJO being generic is if DOJO is actually a trojan horse kind of tech for solving AGI !!
Is there a chance that this is actually what Tesla is trying to do? Or am I flying of a tangent here?
(How does that rhyme with Elons continued warnings about AI?)

Or, if DOJO does not solve AGI entirely, then solves an at least a large subset of AGI. Or perhaps doesn't quite solve, but boosts other known techniques by a significant order of magnitude - a kind of AGI runway. Which in the end may be the missing link for solving AGI ?..!
Maybe Elon concluded that FSD was close enough to AGI that he might as well solve for AGI. And then get FSD 'for free'.
If that is the case, then solving for a subset of AGI is worth a ... what is the level above?
Most of us are getting used to Tesla being 10+ startups. I used to think that solving FSD was worth a lot - to mankind, but also to us fans and investors. Solving AGI (or a significant subset) Danm! That is is 'huger than huge'.

If true, then someone PM Warren Redlich - his most crazy estimates are way too conservative!

(AGI: Artificial General Intelligence)

Gotta be careful not to get to carried away. But that being said I would assign a "non-negligable probability" to a scenario where the construction of a specific AI system (DOJO) that eventually completelty "solves" (as in outperforms humans by many orders of magnitude) something as complex as real world driving could be fewer steps away than most people can imagine to AGI. And to assign a monetary value to such a system, well, I wouldn't know how to begin modeling that but I think the "0" key on the keyboard would get worn out quickly.
 
What the heck is this?
- ramp to drive up so it is for finished cars
- roof only makes sense if car stays there for a while
- hole in base so car can be accessed from below

Return of the battery swap??? Doesn´t make sense after they abandoned it before...
Does anyone have a better idea?

View attachment 639638
(4 min into the video)
Oil change?
 
MODS: This may be of general interest to genpop , but off course, feel free to kick it to a sub-forum.

Thanks DD ! - great summary: Good level of detail combined with clear explanations.
Follow up question:
In similar projects of this magnitude what is the ballpark ratio of work used for data transfer, compression or bottleneck workarounds, as you describe it, compared to solving the actual problem (FSD)?
Clarification:
Did Keller really say 10- 1 million times faster/better or are you using your own background to evaluate the upper bound? Did he compare to the (in car) FSD version 3 chip efficiency, or to other ways of doing FSD (competitors)

Wild-eyed speculation: Perhaps Tenstorrent will built some kind of specialized compute unit which Tesla can use in DOJO? Perhaps made-to-order, Tesla-only. Perhaps not a main or bulk part but supplementary? I love Teslas vertical integration, but sometimes having a trusted partner is worth a lot.

General amazement:
I still find it hard to believe that DOJO is generic enough for other tasks. Elon said it could mine bitcoin, and your summary seems to imply a generic quality. To my limited understanding, FSD is (or was) considered so freaking hard that solving that requires specialized hardware - as evidenced by Tesla doing exactly that re. their custom car chips.
It also kind of doesn't make sense financially: Solving FSD is worth so much money, that even making a lot of bitcoins wouldn't really measure up. On the other hand, if solving FSD takes a number of years, and a huge amount of compute and custom chips, having some extra income is useful.

The only way that I can make sense of DOJO being generic is if DOJO is actually a trojan horse kind of tech for solving AGI !!
Is there a chance that this is actually what Tesla is trying to do? Or am I flying of a tangent here?
(How does that rhyme with Elons continued warnings about AI?)

Or, if DOJO does not solve AGI entirely, then solves an at least a large subset of AGI. Or perhaps doesn't quite solve, but boosts other known techniques by a significant order of magnitude - a kind of AGI runway. Which in the end may be the missing link for solving AGI ?..!
Maybe Elon concluded that FSD was close enough to AGI that he might as well solve for AGI. And then get FSD 'for free'.
If that is the case, then solving for a subset of AGI is worth a ... what is the level above f***ton?
Most of us are getting used to Tesla being 10+ startups. I used to think that solving FSD was worth a lot - to mankind, but also to us fans and investors. Solving AGI (or a significant subset) Danm! That is is 'huger than huge'.

If true, then someone PM Warren Redlich - his most crazy estimates are way too conservative!

(AGI: Artificial General Intelligence)

PM Sent to Warren.

This is why I’m all in on TSLA. Because of the amazing things Elon is doing; and because of the crazy things he WILL do that we are still not yet aware. A call option on the greatest inventor of our time. a dozen startups in one. The person changing our world for the better, with a proven track record of success.

I may be late; but I refuse to sit on the sidelines as I did with Steve Jobs; constantly thinking I was too late to the party. The man has been dead for 10 years and even his legacy is continuing to change the world.
 
Just amazing that the experienced battery manufactures are all jumping on board with this design so quickly. I just find it hard to believe as the experts in batteries they did not come up with something similar on their own.

I hope Tesla is a least getting some exclusivity for these batteries for some time. I have not see anything to indicate that there is any restriction on the use of this technology. Elon probably let it go easy as it supports the mission they know they will still struggle to keep up with the demand if the battery costs really fall by 56%.

From Battery Day we know the cell form factor change accounts for 14% of that savings.

The fast way for battery manufacturers to make tab-less 4680 cells, is buy the back end equipment from Tesla:- winding, filling, capping etc, but keep their own cathode/anode process, ovens and formation.

Via this route LG and others probably get 14-20% savings, Tesla gets the full 56%.

I can't see why Tesla would readily license, DBE, their cathode and anode process and their formation process.

This is the only case I aware of where the future profits of the company conflict with the mission.

We also need to keep in mind LG, Panasonic and CATL have their own in house process, their own IP and their own expertise, it would be a big step to throw that out and simply copy Tesla. Most probably, they will seek to keep their own distinct processes, which they continue to refine.
 
@Discoducky -- which talk are you summarizing? Keller on Lex Fridman's podcast? Apologies if you are replying to somebody on my block list.

his edit adds a link. i was equally confused

You were too fast! ;)

Please start the new thread with more details and post the link.

Thank you very much.

Done Dojo discussion

I had a very different take-away from the discussion, but admittedly I could have misunderstood him. Rather, Jim seemed to imply that Dojo was meant as a more general solution based on a blue-sky approach as to what was possible (i.e., that Dojo would have more than one customer). He was involved at the early stages, but he did not know what Dojo is at this point because of multiple pivots.

Also, I don't believe that he said that Lattner is involved in Tenstorrent, Jim's new outfit. Rather, that Jim put on a conference last year that both Lattner and Karpathy were involved in.

I'll move this discussion to the thread above

MODS: This may be of general interest to genpop , but off course, feel free to kick it to a sub-forum.

Thanks DD ! - great summary: Good level of detail combined with clear explanations.
Follow up question:
In similar projects of this magnitude what is the ballpark ratio of work used for data transfer, compression or bottleneck workarounds, as you describe it, compared to solving the actual problem (FSD)?
Clarification:
Did Keller really say 10- 1 million times faster/better or are you using your own background to evaluate the upper bound? Did he compare to the (in car) FSD version 3 chip efficiency, or to other ways of doing FSD (competitors)

Wild-eyed speculation: Perhaps Tenstorrent will built some kind of specialized compute unit which Tesla can use in DOJO? Perhaps made-to-order, Tesla-only. Perhaps not a main or bulk part but supplementary? I love Teslas vertical integration, but sometimes having a trusted partner is worth a lot.

General amazement:
I still find it hard to believe that DOJO is generic enough for other tasks. Elon said it could mine bitcoin, and your summary seems to imply a generic quality. To my limited understanding, FSD is (or was) considered so freaking hard that solving that requires specialized hardware - as evidenced by Tesla doing exactly that re. their custom car chips.
It also kind of doesn't make sense financially: Solving FSD is worth so much money, that even making a lot of bitcoins wouldn't really measure up. On the other hand, if solving FSD takes a number of years, and a huge amount of compute and custom chips, having some extra income is useful.

The only way that I can make sense of DOJO being generic is if DOJO is actually a trojan horse kind of tech for solving AGI !!
Is there a chance that this is actually what Tesla is trying to do? Or am I flying of a tangent here?
(How does that rhyme with Elons continued warnings about AI?)

Or, if DOJO does not solve AGI entirely, then solves an at least a large subset of AGI. Or perhaps doesn't quite solve, but boosts other known techniques by a significant order of magnitude - a kind of AGI runway. Which in the end may be the missing link for solving AGI ?..!
Maybe Elon concluded that FSD was close enough to AGI that he might as well solve for AGI. And then get FSD 'for free'.
If that is the case, then solving for a subset of AGI is worth a ... what is the level above f***ton?
Most of us are getting used to Tesla being 10+ startups. I used to think that solving FSD was worth a lot - to mankind, but also to us fans and investors. Solving AGI (or a significant subset) Danm! That is is 'huger than huge'.

If true, then someone PM Warren Redlich - his most crazy estimates are way too conservative!

(AGI: Artificial General Intelligence)

This discussion as well to the new thread!