Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Sigh....no, that's completely wrong. TSLA was simply their highest conviction stock and therefore their largest holding. The fact that it has been one of the best performing stocks has certainly supercharged the performance of ARK funds that hold TSLA but ARK's performance is impressive even if you back their best performer and largest holding out of the equation.





That's so wrong I don't know where to begin. You can't blame TSLA for bubbles in the stocks of other EV companies. This is the result of investors becoming aware that EV's really are viable and they are the future. If investors bid undeserving companies higher than they deserve then the fault lies squarely on the shoulders of those investors over-bidding. And it doesn't harm those who are not over-bidding. In fact, it can help them if they owned those companies before they were bid up. All they have to do is sell for a nice profit.



I don't see the supposed problem here. So a stock got bid up too high and fell back down (according to you). So what? It happens all the time. Investors did this, not Tesla, not ARK. Why do you blame innocent bystanders who are doing what they should be doing?



Again, don't blame Tesla for this simply because they are performing skillfully, blame investors. But this kind of thing happens all the time and I don't see the problem.



Of course ARK's valuation of TSLA is speculative- that's the number one job of investors- to be speculators! That's how investing works (through speculating). I shouldn't even be wasting my time addressing such ridiculous assertions.

I'm stunned that you think an investor should do anything else other than speculate. And quit blaming Tesla and Cathie Wood for doing their job when the things you are worried about are 100% due to other investor's actions. If there is blame, put it on the people responsible. And it's not even clear why you are concerned- investors have a long history of bidding some stocks far beyond any rational hope - it all gets taken care of in the end.

Except I'm not blaming Tesla or ark. I was talking about why individual investors are acting the way there are currently. ARK and Tesla is just doing their thing. And I just pointed out why people shouldn't treat ARK as this all mighty clairvoyant just because they got something right. Investors shouldn't think new start up car company is now a recipe for success just because Tesla made it. It's not teslas or arks fault individual investors has warped their perspective.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla Temporarily Halts Production at Model 3 Line in California

'Hitting maximum deliveries is crucial for Tesla in order for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to meet his ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030.'

Bloomberg seems to think this two week, single model shutdown at one factory throws Tesla's ten year growth plans into jeopardy.

 

[lascavarian]

As an aside: Is it legal in the US to not pay workers when production is shut down on short notice?

It can vary by state. Generally, a short shutdown is up to the employer. If a shutdown goes beyond a certain length of time maybe 2 weeks, the employee can file for state paid assistance until called back or dropped off state compensation the duration of which varies by state.

Employers pay into state insurance to partially compensate the state. States may change (raise) the rate employers contribute as an incentive to avoid layoffs. This tends to encourage short layoffs.

Alternately, employers can just terminate employees at will in many states. There is zero commitment to employment resulting in employees sometimes working for many months as temporary employees. This (temp employees) artificially inflates the revenue per employee metric investors look at.

 

[Drax7]

So my thoughts on Ark is conflicted.

So Ark gained most if not all their credibility through their conviction on Tesla, plain and simple. This brings all sorts of problems the market is dealing with currently.

Tesla's rise to fame has caused not only an stock bubble of any company that has the word EVs in any of their description, but also caused all sorts of other stock bubbles ARK decided to invest in that's not Tesla.

So Nano Dimensions is probably a good example that my friend went super bull on after Ark invested in it. I still don't see the appeal, it being a 2-3 billion dollar company now with revenue that's less than some of the people in this forum/year, dropping massively YOY. And also this company had money laundered before..so there are all sorts of red flags. But because Ark invested in it, the stock has done nothing but went to the sky prior to recent pull back.

There was a time when people laughed at Ark, but because of their bet on Tesla paid off big time, people are blindly following Cathie's every call and I can see how this can be a problem...just like all EV related start ups getting multiple billion dollar valuation as if all of a sudden new car companies no longer having less than 10% chance of succeeding. In fact there are EV related companies having multiple billion dollar valuation after uncovered fraud..it's crazy town all thanks to Tesla.

I still think how Ark valuated Tesla is completely speculative because it's based on human ride hailing program Elon is not even enthusiastic about. I see Rob Mauer's model mention it at about never.

My views on Ark align with yours, she got Tesla right it seems for the wrong reasons , robotaxis, and now everything she promotes flies in sympathy . Her analysis is very superficial.

 

[tstolze]

'Hitting maximum deliveries is crucial for Tesla in order for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to meet his ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030.'

Bloomberg seems to think this two week, single model shutdown at one factory throws Tesla's ten year growth plans into jeopardy.

I know there is a small delay after the assembly line, but people are still receiving VIN’s for Model 3’s, many reported yesterday/overnight here on the forums. Hopefully it’s just a maintenance window that Tesla decided to take with auto sales in the 1st quarter normally lower, atleast for traditional auto makers.

 

[winfield100]

My views on Ark align with yours, she got Tesla right it seems for the wrong reasons , robotaxis, and now everything she promotes flies in sympathy . Her analysis is very superficial.

may we have a few specific examples please.

 

[WarpedOne]

'Hitting maximum deliveries is crucial for Tesla in order for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to meet his ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030.'

Bloomberg seems to think this two week, single model shutdown at one factory throws Tesla's ten year growth plans into jeopardy.

Of course it does .... selling 20 M is vastly different from selling only 19.98 M cars. Its the difference between nothing-worth-mentioning and utter failure.
Musk already failed to fulfill his promise of 500k delivered cars in 2020, he only delivered 499,6k cars.
A failed company lead by a fraudulent liar.
Isn't it obvious to all?

 

[Singuy]

I know there is a small delay after the assembly line, but people are still receiving VIN’s for Model 3’s, many reported yesterday/overnight here on the forums. Hopefully it’s just a maintenance window that Tesla decided to take with auto sales in the 1st quarter normally lower, atleast for traditional auto makers.

It is a good opportunity to convert m3 line into gigacasting, however if that's the case then it's not due to want but need. Elon recently said to Munro updating the m3 to gigacasting without another factory online will kill cash flow. So Tesla might just be making lemonade with the chip shortage lemons they were dealt.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...

I still think how Ark valuated Tesla is completely speculative because it's based on human ride hailing program Elon is not even enthusiastic about. I see Rob Mauer's model mention it at about never.

If you’re referring to ARK's early 2020 TSLA valuation, I'm pretty sure there was nothing about human ride hailing in it at all.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

At least the chip shortage hit while we’re still waiting for the return of the US EV tax credit.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My views on Ark align with yours, she got Tesla right it seems for the wrong reasons , robotaxis, and now everything she promotes flies in sympathy . Her analysis is very superficial.

Ark's analysis has always been car-based, which I find a little silly. You can't have a car manufacturer and robotaxi developer valued at $800B. It's not black and white, genius or pure luck, but somewhere in the middle and IMO a good bit to the luck side of the spectrum.

This company us valuable primarily for Energy. Ark rarely mentions it, and certainly doesn't put it in their valuation math.

 

[tstolze]

It is a good opportunity to convert m3 line into gigacasting, however if that's the case then it's not due to want but need. Elon recently said to Munro updating the m3 to gigacasting without another factory online will kill cash flow. So Tesla might just be making lemonade with the chip shortage lemons they were dealt.

Do they have additional Giga-Presses to handle this thought?
Has anyone confirmed the chip shortage other than “rumored”

 

[Prunesquallor]

My views on Ark align with yours, she got Tesla right it seems for the wrong reasons , robotaxis, and now everything she promotes flies in sympathy . Her analysis is very superficial.

You guys really need to read the early 2020 ARK TSLA valuation report so you know what’s in it. Some instantiations of the analysis included robotaxis, some did not. None included human ride hailing. Ten different scenarios resulted, all with different valuations. Pick the one(s) you agree with. Keep in mind the numbers are pre-split.

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

edit: as an example the “High functioning EV Company” scenario (one of their highest probability scenarios) assumes no robotaxi network and set a 2024 PT of 680 (post split).

 

[Singuy]

Do they have additional Giga-Presses to handle this thought?
Has anyone confirmed the chip shortage other than “rumored”

Just my wishful thinking. There is a possibility if a 2 week shutdown with nothing to show for. It is odd that they lowered the sr+ price recently as a demand levers and yet can't produce anything for 2 weeks.

 

[H Mak]

'Hitting maximum deliveries is crucial for Tesla in order for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to meet his ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030.'

Bloomberg seems to think this two week, single model shutdown at one factory throws Tesla's ten year growth plans into jeopardy.

Some time ago I stopped paying attention to anything Bloomberg has to say about anything

 

[Dancing Lemur]

 

[Singuy]

You guys really need to read the early 2020 ARK TSLA valuation report so you know what’s in it. Some instantiations of the analysis included robotaxis, some did not. None included human ride hailing. Ten different scenarios resulted, all with different valuations. Pick the one(s) you agree with. Keep in mind the numbers are pre-split.

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

edit: as an example the “High functioning EV Company” scenario (one of their highest probability scenarios) assumes no robotaxi network and set a 2024 PT of 680 (post split).

I think Arks analysis pre battery days has been decent. But I am not sure why they are so hung up on ride hailing post battery day. There's so much to talk about, and yet they always pick this one thing Tesla barely mentions. Alex Porter can go on for days on everything Tesla have already announced and comes up with a perfectly good bull thesis.

 

[cdswm3]

What are the odds of picking up a few more shares at $630 today?

 

[Krugerrand]

I think Arks analysis pre battery days has been decent. But I am not sure why they are so hung up on ride hailing post battery day. There's so much to talk about, and yet they always pick this one thing Tesla barely mentions. Alex Porter can go on for days on everything Tesla have already announced and comes up with a perfectly good bull thesis.

Probably for the same reasons Andrea James used to go on and on about Tesla with a PT of $500 while everyone else was valuing a Gordo or less; because they believe it’ll be the end result. You either agree or you don’t, but rest assured Tesla will get to their evaluations one way or another. The details aren’t going to matter in the end.

 

[Krugerrand]

What are the odds of picking up a few more shares at $630 today?

About the same odds as anyone taking you seriously.