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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Having spent the past decade working for an electric utility, directly involved in the maintenance and construction of gas-fired electrical generation and solar/wind/energy storage I am in complete agreement with Tony Seba. The manpower, material & fuel costs of fossil fuel generated power is staggering. Give me a bottle of Windex; and I’ll maintain your solar system.

B1EF82EF-9834-4973-8346-9BDF674652FE.jpeg


I spent years working in maintenance at the above plant. I apologize for the Captain Obvious moment, but cleaning solar panels from time to time just makes a helluva lot more sense.

Contrast the above plant with Solar Plant below.

EB4773D1-61E9-4ABC-B9A7-5A9CEE01FC35.jpeg
 
My biggest TSLA screw up was due to wash sale rules. Think back to thanksgiving 2019. Tesla was about to unveil the Cybertruck. I had a pretty good feeling that TSLA was going to dive after the presentation. So I sold a block of Tesla at a slight loss at about $360/share pre split. Sure enough, the price dropped after the Cybertruck unveil. Gotta wait 30 days, just before New Years to buy back though. Well thats when the freaking price went from something like $330 to $850 in less than a month. I never did buy back (I had more TSLA stock, my core holding).

Lesson learned, do not sell TSLA. End of story.
So there is no way to cancel out short term cap gain of say, 25k by taking 25k loss somehow? I’ll be paying tax on 25k regardless of what stock does in future? If price goes up to getting my money back, I’ll still owe tax on 25k. See my situation? I was just thinking of using share selector on schwab and selling the really high price shares to get my average down. I already goofed once and have 10 shares with higher cost basis due to one wash sale, so I don’t want to sell those because I think I lose the benefit of that adjustment. Does my scenario make sense? Load up a months worth of buying shares now, then sell shares of the higher price lot to take the loss to cancel out previous short term cap gain of 25k. After 30 days, reinvest the sold high price share proceeds? Smart yes? Or dumb ? Or both? Not seeking advice just opinions :)
 

Having spent the past decade working for an electric utility, directly involved in the maintenance and construction of gas-fired electrical generation and solar/wind/energy storage I am in complete agreement with Tony Seba. The manpower, material & fuel costs of fossil fuel generated power is staggering. Give me a bottle of Windex; and I’ll maintain your solar system.

View attachment 643542

I spent years working in maintenance at the above plant. I apologize for the Captain Obvious moment, but cleaning solar panels from time to time just makes a helluva lot more sense.

Contrast the above plant with Solar Plant below.

View attachment 643545

The plant you posted first has people riding bicycles, while there is an ICE in the second photo, so I’m not sure exactly what you’re trying to say...
 
Yeah........pretty obvious within the first hour of trading there's clear intent to make sure TSLA doesn't get even close to breaking 700. We're barely 1X the Nasdaq now

Gotta love how MM's couldn't be bothered help the stock out on the big down weeks when it comes to max pain.......but when the stock is rebounding they sure seem to have no issues having the ability to cap and drop the stock back down to max pain. We got 1 whole day of TSLA outperforming it's multiple......now back to massively underperforming
 
Will it really be the end though. Germany is the economic motor of the EU. Is it really possible to imagine VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Audi going out of business? "Too big to fail"?
It seems hard to believe that on one hand the EU penalizes the *sugar* out of them, and on the other hand subsidizes/bails out.
 
So there is no way to cancel out short term cap gain of say, 25k by taking 25k loss somehow? I’ll be paying tax on 25k regardless of what stock does in future? If price goes up to getting my money back, I’ll still owe tax on 25k. See my situation? I was just thinking of using share selector on schwab and selling the really high price shares to get my average down. I already goofed once and have 10 shares with higher cost basis due to one wash sale, so I don’t want to sell those because I think I lose the benefit of that adjustment. Does my scenario make sense? Load up a months worth of buying shares now, then sell shares of the higher price lot to take the loss to cancel out previous short term cap gain of 25k. After 30 days, reinvest the sold high price share proceeds? Smart yes? Or dumb ? Or both? Not seeking advice just opinions :)

Wash rule is 30 days before or after you take the loss. So if you load the dip but then sell a lot at a loss within 30 days, you can’t claim that loss until you sell what you bought.
 
How do people not realize it yet? Production and Revenue are incredible, cash is fantastic at $20B on-hand and growing, and the market cap ran up to FAANG levels last year. I'm more in the crew that this is now a FAANG-level growth stock rather than a straight-to-the-moon-omg-its-going-to-be-$30T-market-cap-in-10-years-1!!!11! type of company.
We, the investors, realize it. BUT none of my friends have any clue about FSD or autonomy. The general public who does not follow Tesla has no conception of just how revolutionary autonomy will be, and how much its going to change the world of transportation.

WE get it, of course! :D
 
It will be after 2021 delivery and earning on Jan 27th 2022

Possibly, I think being in the S&P 500 (and the lead up to that announcement) is/was a bigger deal than what any earnings report will be in the future. IMO.

We, the investors, realize it. BUT none of my friends have any clue about FSD or autonomy. The general public who does not follow Tesla has no conception of just how revolutionary autonomy will be, and how much its going to change the world of transportation.

WE get it, of course! :D

Fair, though I'm more bullish on robotaxi-paired-with-Boring-tunnels-in-various-cities-geographic-regions revenue than just with FSD solely. I don't know much about machine learning and autonomy, but it does sound like quite a load to take on in terms of edge cases and reliability.
 
Market FUD will keep SP in check until 1st week of March - when we have production numbers. (low expectations, that will likely be beaten, .. most number of ships to EU, China sales numbers etc)

However, overall market might heat up as stimulus checks are received. (+ I think the big boys see the monies coming from a mile away, and have already begun to position themselves for the feeding frenzy ;) )
If Cathy releases here new price target around the time stimulus checks are received, might be real impactful for both ARK and TSLA ;)
(I am planning to add more cash to my index fund where I cannot do stock pickings)
cheers!!
 
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Having spent the past decade working for an electric utility, directly involved in the maintenance and construction of gas-fired electrical generation and solar/wind/energy storage I am in complete agreement with Tony Seba. The manpower, material & fuel costs of fossil fuel generated power is staggering. Give me a bottle of Windex; and I’ll maintain your solar system.

View attachment 643542

I spent years working in maintenance at the above plant. I apologize for the Captain Obvious moment, but cleaning solar panels from time to time just makes a helluva lot more sense.

Contrast the above plant with Solar Plant below.

View attachment 643545
Great I already hear the push back in my head. "All those jobs lost because of Solar power is killing the American dream".
 
Assuming you are correct,


I mean, the balance sheet is public info- you can check it yourself. And probably should have before claiming Tesla had 20 billion cash and no debt.

Elon are winning more than $1B in bitcoin just only 1 month and more to come,

Until or unless they sell BTC they haven't "won" anything.

Just like stock- it's not a gain or a loss until you sell it.

It's unclear right now what the long-term plan is regarding their BTC purchase, other than a vague statement they did it for "more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash."

That could mean as an inflation hedge, so they just sit on the BTC long term.

It could mean they do an ARK thing where they have a rough % in mind for holdings, and take profits when the price puts it above that limit.

It could mean any number of things- but until/unless they sell there's no profit.



Tesla will be at least $900-$1000/share at the end of 2021. Another capital raise will erase that $7.7B easily


...uh... the 7.7B is the extra cash they have on hand, above their ~12.1 billion in debt.

Again, roughly 19.8 billion in cash/cash equivalents.... roughly 12.1 billion of debt. Net 7.7 billion "extra" cash/cash equivalent on hand.


It's pretty clear Tesla does not consider their existing debt a problem, or they could've paid it off with cash on hand. (they DID pay some of it off early, but not the rest)

They've also said they can't find any way to spend more money usefully right now- so I'm not sure what yet ANOTHER cap raise would do for them.

It's possible once the kinks are worked out of 4680 production at Kato you see a more significant spending of cash as batteries remain their greatest bottleneck.... (and finding enough good engineering talent for the increasing # of factories seems the next one)