I wouldn't think you would. You took a lot of words to (actually) agree with me.I don't see it that way. It's much better to learn from the entire body of evidence vs. one's painful experiences. The fact that a painful experience tends to drive a learning home in a very effective manner does not change this because the learning might not be a valid one just because it turned out that way one time.
Investors have a tendency to put more weight on learning events that have large impacts on their own finances but, from a first principles perspective, this is not wise. Considering all the evidence equally will result in better performance than weighing personal experiences disproportionally.
That said, I do think the conclusion that tax considerations tend to be given too much weight is true. Tax consequences do need to be considered but they shouldn't be given more weight than they deserve. The reason investors tend to break this rule is because the tax consequences of a decision tends to be very visible (and sometimes a certainty) while the result of an investment decision tend to be unknowable until some time has passed. This leads investors to put too much weight on the tax considerations. It's often better to make the investment and pay the taxes. It really depends upon the level of conviction. This is where investors tend to over-estimate their ability in the short-term. Short-term price movements are largely unknowable (at least with a high level of certainty) and so tax considerations should rightly prevail. But longer-term decisions need to give less weight to the tax considerations.
Summed up and generalized, a trader should trade, taxes be damned, and a an investor should hold. Because holding automatically minimizes taxes. Taken to the final conclusion: Don't trade, hold!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
lafrisbee
Active Member
we need an "Excited/Astounded" icon in the like field of choices. (Seriously) Tesla even astounds me sometimes....the rumors even more often.
Thumper
Active Member
Sooner or later, there will be a serious or fatal crash involving FSD. No matter the circumstances, be prepared for an onslaught of FUD and SP drop for a bit.
This is why I believe they held off on increasing testing participants until vast majority of winter snows are over.
What is this thing called "another stock"?
tl;dr: No one can recapture lost time — not even governments.
Part of me wants to agree with you. I’ve noticed that there’s always another chapter for the legacy OEM’s not matter how badly they screw up even if it’s chapter 11.
On the other hand, it’s also hard to believe that even strong governments can save all of their legacy automakers.
Certainly some brands will die, perhaps those with the most diehard ICE fans for customers, when the ocean of oil "suddenly" dries up due to the economics of the energy transformation (look at coal for comparison).
Some of the laggard legacy automakers with marquee brands, yes I’m looking at you BMW, could well merge, likely on unfavorable terms, with something else — most likely a Chinese entity — if they’re to survive at all.
As I recall, Ford borrowed against its ’Blue Oval.’ Not sure if that loan was paid off. If not, maybe that’ll get repossessed and auctioned off. /s
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
That is also likely to be the point in time that there will be a public debate about autonomous driving. It would be wonderful if this debate was somehow forced to precede inevitable tragedy.
The problem will be that when autonomous vehicles crash, they will do in a completely different manner that will seem senseless and completely avoidable to laypeople (“How could it not see the fire truck???”), overshadowing the lack of crashes humans get into all the time but robots will not (eg didn’t check blind spot). The data will obviously plainly favor autonomy, but the subjective feel of the individual tragedies will be a sticking point that the public will need to get over.
EDIT: Put another way, we are wired and conditioned to accept the risk we pose to one another and forgive, because mistakes and lapses in judgment feel familiar.
We do not yet have that subconscious relationship with robots, and I do wonder whether we in the US are enough of a data-driven society at the moment to make the right choice.
From the investor standpoint, it will be prudent to prepare for times when the market may bounce TSLA’s valuation between FSD becoming savior and public enemy #1.
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Good point. And if the new beta includes pothole avoidance it will supercharge interest!
Actually, the line is the same as one of the Ferraris (I forget the model name). The comparison was posted a short time after the reveal. The Cybertruck is actually very aerodynamic.
Macros are responding nicely to yield stabilizing. It did spike a bit earlier after getting into oversold following ECB's announcement to increase bond purchasing.
Next stop SPY 420.
Next stop SPY 420.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
If VW is almost at cost parity with Tesla, except for batteries...
Didn’t Tesla have a battery day event where they showed how with their vertical integration they have a plan to reduce battery costs over 50%? While the rest of the battery industry makes painfully slow advances and price reductions in the fraction of a percent. For this innovation alone was like a scene from the Matrix...where Neo fights with an agent with one hand behind his back. Only Tesla isn’t putting any hands behind their back. I don’t fully appreciate how much cost reduction other battery manufacturers or auto companies will benefit from Tesla‘s sharing of their approach. Certainly some, but it’s not even close.
Didn’t Tesla have a battery day event where they showed how with their vertical integration they have a plan to reduce battery costs over 50%? While the rest of the battery industry makes painfully slow advances and price reductions in the fraction of a percent. For this innovation alone was like a scene from the Matrix...where Neo fights with an agent with one hand behind his back. Only Tesla isn’t putting any hands behind their back. I don’t fully appreciate how much cost reduction other battery manufacturers or auto companies will benefit from Tesla‘s sharing of their approach. Certainly some, but it’s not even close.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think today is a bit of an overstep by the MMs. Yes volume is not too crazy so the rulebook says to pushdown with a big MMD preserving tomorrow's $700 calls, but it feels dangerous to me. Unwinding all this pushdown early next week just as stimulus checks start going out the door is a recipe for disaster. IMO they'd be better off letting it notch up to $720ish and not have the spring so coiled heading into next week. Maybe they'll give up after lunch....
One handle at the moment is: They could only subsidize corporate leasing.
Nearly all corporations have Leasing-Providers & Tesla only offers direct leasing - meaning many people CANNOT choose a Tesla anyway as their company-car.
That is how it is usually done. We even have a "Segway-Law" in Germany. It is for all companies .. as long as the weight, wattage & usage is that of a Segway (+- some % leeway)...
Segway is never stated anywhere in the law - but tho only thing that this exceptions applies to...
You can always find a way. But competition is then free to game that system of subsidies..
JusRelax
Active Member
Note that they will be extra motivated for next week: It will be a quad witching expiration week.
Nah this is right out of their usual playbook. Heavy capping on big up macro days and then let the sell off of the macro's take TSLA lower on the next few trading days. Only way I see them getting caught doing this is if the macro's keep going up 1-3% for the next like 3-4 straight trading days which is not going to happen since we've already had 2 big macro up days now this week.
We're already about to go under 1X multiple for the day. Sure was nice to get one day of massively outperforming the macro's in like the past 2 months. I guess it was too much to ask for TSLA to outperform the macros for 2 days of the week
uujjj2
Member
An invention can be both a disruptive and a sustaining innovation, just in different markets. EVs are not a disruptive innovation in the auto industry, in the "Innovator's Dilemma" sense. Instead they are a revolutionary innovation, which is still a type of sustaining innovation. But EVs are a disruptive innovation in the energy industry, particularly the subset of the energy industry that serves transportation (i.e. oil). Elon Musk has said repeatedly that Tesla's main disruptive effect is going to be on the energy sector not automotive.
Tesla isn't going to drive legacy automakers out of business. Most of them anyway. I suspect legacy automakers will wind up with half or maybe even more than half of the EV market, once the transition is complete.
What Tesla's going to drive out of business is the oil industry!
Tesla isn't going to drive legacy automakers out of business. Most of them anyway. I suspect legacy automakers will wind up with half or maybe even more than half of the EV market, once the transition is complete.
What Tesla's going to drive out of business is the oil industry!
We’re going to read back through all this years from now laughing at ourselves for caring about such little matters because the SP will have expanded so much beyond today.Nah this is right out of their usual playbook. Heavy capping on big up macro days and then let the sell off of the macro's take TSLA lower on the next few trading days. Only way I see them getting caught doing this is if the macro's keep going up 1-3% for the next like 3-4 straight trading days which is not going to happen since we've already had 2 big macro up days now this week.
We're already about to go under 1X multiple for the day. Sure was nice to get one day of massively outperforming the macro's in like the past 2 months. I guess it was too much to ask for TSLA to outperform the macros for 2 days of the week
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
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