Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Remember to reset you clocks to daylight saving time tonight at 2:00 am local (void where prohibited)

March 14 Falcon 9 • Starlink V1.0-L21​

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Launch time: 1001 GMT (6:01 a.m. EDT)​

Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida​

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A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the 22nd batch of approximately 60 satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network, a mission designated Starlink V1.0-L21. Delayed from March 13. [March 12]​

 

[Knightshade]

Thanks for the anatomy lesson. The next time you read your phone or laptop without touching it

Why can't I touch it?

Holding a phone lower in one hand, the other on the wheel, and looking down with eyes (but not tilting head) is not only physically possible, I see people do it frequently while driving.

Sometimes when I'm a passenger and I'm very much not a fan- but it certainly happens.

(Plus of course many folks have phone holders that keep the phone within the range of their moving eyes while the head faces forward)

A driver attention system actually built to track eye movement catches that.

A "is their head aimed generally forward" system would not.




Again, it's better than nothing, but it's not as good as a system actually intended for that purpose.

, or turn your gaze from the road ahead to your girlfriend in the passenger seat by moving only your eyeballs

I dunno about you, but I talk with my mouth, not my eyes, so there's really no need to move head or eyeballs on this one.

What I don't like about your argument is your assumption, based on zero insider knowledge, that Tesla engineers never thought of any other plans for the interior camera besides the one you thought of

I didn't "think of it"


Elon Musk literally told us it was for monitoring passengers when used as a robotaxi.

It’s there for when we start competing with Uber/Lyft & people allow their car to earn money for them as part of the Tesla shared autonomy fleet. In case someone messes up your car, you can check the video.

Code to do any other job didn't appear until much more recently-- years after this hardware began being used first in the Model 3- and it's clear both from that code, and the hardware in the car - that it lacks capabilities it would've gotten HW for if they'd originally meant it for driver monitoring.


Not only that- if it was originally meant as a driver monitoring system it would have gone into the S and X too not just the "cheap" models they expected to be used as robotaxis.


So it's based on quite a bit of knowledge, including insight into the actual code, physical hardware choices and capabilities, and the word of Elon Musk.


What I don't like about your argument is you keep pretending none of those things exist because.... I'm not really sure why....

... and that therefore Tesla's driver-monitoring system is inferior to other manufacturers'.

It factually is

It can not see through sunglasses as other manufacturers systems intended to be used for DM can.

It can not see in the dark because it isn't throwing IR to allow low-light eye tracking like other manufacturers systems intended to be used for DM can.

It can not handle certain glare/direct sunlight and maintain functionality (hence the "blinded" state in the software)- this is something not only other manufacturers systems intended to be used for DM are objectively better at- Caddy is already deploying a second gen system specifically to get even better at this specific task.


Teslas after-the-fact use of the interior camera for driver monitoring is less capable due to physical limitations of the hardware.


Again- this isn't "Tesla picked bad/dumb hardware"


This is "Tesla never intended to use it for this at all-- but being clever have found a way to do it anyway even if it's not as good as a dedicated hardware setup.


And it just so happens they found a way to do so not too far in advance of the EU requiring driver monitoring systems in new cars.

Potentially avoiding a need to upgrade the hardware if they can get it "good enough" even if it's not as good as what others with dedicated HW can do.



I'm baffled at your need to deny facts like these in some kinda weird white knighting for Tesla here.

 

[PeterJA]

...A driver attention system actually built to track eye movement catches that.

A "is their head aimed generally forward" system would not....

I've said twice that Tesla’s system is not a “head monitoring” system, but a body-monitoring system that can see distracted behavior such as holding a phone or tapping/scrolling it in a holder. But you’re just not getting the point, so I give up.

...I'm baffled at your need to deny facts like these in some kinda weird white knighting for Tesla here.

Are you really? Could it be that I disagree that your “facts” are facts… such as your claim the Elon stating one use for the camera means it's the only intended use? Or that code appearing later means it was never planned earlier?

You seem unable to debate the issues without veiled insults to my intelligence or rationality, so I don’t wanna play anymore. Bye.

 

[MC3OZ]

Advertising should be done rarely; and then only with excellence.

Tesla can easily start by putting out more YouTube videos and the occasional blog post.

There is a whole army of excellent volunteer YouTubers that generally make excellent videos and help get the message out.
Tesla doesn't need to pay or motivate these people, the mission motivates them.

The easy step is for Tesla to provide these YouTubers with a bit more raw material, blog posts and annual reports are an excellent way of providing detailed information that costs little to produce.

At present the advertising budget is spent building factories, producing cars which also help the mission, in fact the cars themselves are excellent advertising and also help motivate volunteer YouTubers.

So the question is if Tesla can do anything effective via conventional advertising.
I think a short positive message might help, something like "Tesla drive the future".

It is best to focus of the excellent advantages of the cars, rather than the "save the planet" narrative, everyone wants to drive a great car, sadly not everyone wants to save the planet, or face up to problems.

Sell them on the car, let them drive the car, that may case them to rethink the future...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Tesla can easily start by putting out more YouTube videos and the occasional blog post.

There is a whole army of excellent volunteer YouTubers that generally make excellent videos and help get the message out.
Tesla doesn't need to pay or motivate these people, the mission motivates them.

The easy step is for Tesla to provide these YouTubers with a bit more raw material, blog posts and annual reports are an excellent way of providing detailed information that costs little to produce.

At present the advertising budget is spent building factories, producing cars which also help the mission, in fact the cars themselves are excellent advertising and also help motivate volunteer YouTubers.

So the question is if Tesla can do anything effective via conventional advertising.
I think a short positive message might help, something like "Tesla drive the future".

It is best to focus of the excellent advantages of the cars, rather than the "save the planet" narrative, everyone wants to drive a great car, sadly not everyone wants to save the planet, or face up to problems.

Sell them on the car, let them drive the car, that may case them to rethink the future...

I feel like we just need stuff like this

This one is good too

 

[Discoducky]

There's two things that I think would be good to write about: One is the use of radar for FSD and the other is the use of a cabin facing camera to understand driver behavior.

Radar for FSD - While it is great to have a better than vision ability to see through fog, rain, lead car...etc...wait that is great and better than human vision. That will remain as it is objectively better. What won't remain in regards to radar are slower speed usage where radar data is fused with vision to make lat and longitudinal decisions. Why? Radar is way better at higher speeds and slower speeds is much less interesting and useful. FSD is much more for city/surface/slower category of streets. I would assert that vision needs to be the only sensor with Tesla's current FSD implemetation. I would however think that FSD would be improved if the vehicle has 2 front corner short distance radar which would allow much better data fusion to vision when making acute turns at slow speeds in intersections. With Tesla's current hardware (single long range center radar) it is only really useful for higher highway speeds.

From an engineering first principles perspective, NOT using this type of radar for FSD makes perfect sense.

Cabin facing camera usage - My subjective feedback first is that it seems very prudent, from a biz perspective to utilize the cabin facing camera to understand driver behavior as the beta is expanded. Effectively elliminating those that don't watch the road to not utilize FSD in it's current early beta formulation. As FSD improves and as understanding of driver behavior turns into a confidence in driver awareness at deeper and deeper levels, then this can be turned into or rolled into an overall confidence of the FSD stack to ensure safety. And make no mistake, training will occur at the skeletal level to result in a confidence of driver awareness to road conditions.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Lucky you, it is impossible for me to book a service through the app because it doesn't recognise my address. All our cars are now Teslas, I hope nothing goes wrong

What a strange statement. What does the app not recognizing your address have to do with making it "impossible ... to book a service through the app"? Pick an address it recognizes. Is there something even slightly difficult about this impossible problem that I'm missing?

 

[Tim S]

Once again, I recommend using the Ignore feature instead of arguing with shady posters.

 

[neverdone]

What a strange statement. What does the app not recognizing your address have to do with making it "impossible ... to book a service through the app"? Pick an address it recognizes. Is there something even slightly difficult about this impossible problem that I'm missing?

I had this problem when I moved to a new subdivision. My new address was not in google maps so I could not book an appointment with my correct address. I entered a "close" address and added a note for the correct address.

 

[FlamingPIG]

The Taycan performs better on the hwy while cruising on it's second gear but it's efficiency gets trashed stop and go traffic due to a lack of brake regen and utilization of the first gear a lot in city driving.

do you have source for this? I try to find "city driving range test" but no luck.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think the broader concern raised by OP was about personal privacy and what ownership really means going forward.

We live in a world where our rights are limited by EULAs we never read. And even if we did read them, they can change without sufficient notice. It becomes more of an issue with every passing day as everything becomes "smart". My oven has an internet connection for goodness sake.

News flash: No such thing as personal privacy and hasn’t been for two decades.

 

[StealthP3D]

GM's entire plan for satisfying future CAFE and CARB requirements is selling lots of BEVs.

Their current plan appears to be to delay the volume BEV sales as long as possible.

They are getting rid of their small fuel efficient ICEv that sell at huge losses.
They no longer sell hybrids that sold at huge losses.

The reason their smaller ICE cars and hybrids sell at huge losses is because their manufacturing cannot compete with the Koreans and the Japanese. They are very bad at offering good value. The only reason they make money on large trucks and SUV's is because people are willing to pay a premium for large trucks and SUV's with a traditional American nameplate. That's a very tenuous advantage in a segment that is shrinking.

They are out of the passenger FCEV business, but will sell their hydrogen fuel cell stacks to heavy commercial vehicle makers.

Do you believe they will be able to sell hydrogen fuel stacks in growing volumes for very long? I don't. For many reasons. Manufacturing costs are only one. Do they even make significant profit (or any profit) from this business?

Their intermediate plan is to sell big ICEv that makes huge profits and big BEV at a profit.

If their Ultium cars don't sell reasonably well GM is royally screwed. Their other option would be paying fines and/or buying regulatory credits from Tesla.

What surprises me is that you think GM will be able to manufacture and sell EV's more profitably than they could manufacture and sell small ICE cars over the last several years. Why would the fact that they are EV's make GM's passenger car products any more competitive? Oh, that's right, because Ultium. Remind me again what advantage Ultium batteries have over the current trajectory of competing batteries? Please. I can't seem to wrap my head around the differentiator between Ultium and the rest. Besides that they are the ultimate battery. I know they are supposed to be better, I just can't wrap my head around WHY they are better. Or how this supposed advantage is able to transform GM's passenger car business from huge losses to profitability.

 

[StealthP3D]

The Mach-E, in particular, might sell well, if they can get the price down.

Every car ever produced will sell well if priced low enough. Even the Edsel would have sold well at a low enough price. I don't think Ford can make a single dollar on Mach-e at current prices. So they have no incentive to sell them at volumes comparable to what the Model 3 has already achieved and certainly not at the volumes Model Y will achieve.

It's a compliance car.

 

[heltok]

 

[Accident]

The Taycan performs better on the hwy while cruising on it's second gear but it's efficiency gets trashed stop and go traffic due to a lack of brake regen and utilization of the first gear a lot in city driving.

The Taycan has the strongest regen of any EV. 265 KW. It’s also mapped to the brake pedal. Friction brakes will basically only be used during emergency braking and performance driving.

The Taycan has multiple drive modes with many active and dynamic aerodynamic features. The car was tested basically in the least efficient mode for highway range.

• The car lowers 22mm in Sport and Range mode. Normal mode was used for EPA testing
• Active spoiler with multiple positions. In Range mode it maximizes range instead of downforce
• The first gear is used to increase performance. It can be disabled to extend the range, or in Range mode
• Active aerodynamic front with different positions based on driving mode and speed
• The Taycan was also tested with 21” Michelin Pilot Sport4. There are multiple configurations offered. For someone more concerned about range there are 19” LRR tires with aero wheels.

When Bjorn Nyland tested the Taycan, he basically observed the same efficiency as a Model S

 

[PeterJA]

Amazon’s New 'Robotaxi' is Ready to Deliver People

Already being tested in three cities, Amazon’s Zoox self-driving taxi has no driver, no reverse, and can deliver up to four passengers to their destinations.

manofmany.com

...A whole network of cameras, radar, and lidar sensors help to eliminate blind spots and to provide a 270 degree field of vision. Considering that the car can reach speeds of 75 miles per hour, all those sensors are pretty important. Safety also includes an airbag system on all four seats. The car’s 133 kWh battery provides for 16 hours of use, making this a prime candidate for fleets and ride-hailing services....

Hmm, sounds more expensive than a robo-Model 3 or Y or $25k world car. But it kinda resembles Cinderella's coach, so maybe it will be a Cinderella story.

 

[Electroman]

Wait a minute, do you mean the Russ Mitchell of LA Times who in a recent emotional moment declared that he cannot imagine blocking any of the TSLAQ ringleaders ever, while he is blocking hundreds of Tesla fans?



To highlight that tweet by Russ Mitchell @ LA Times again, in full context - Mark B. Spiegel, head TSLAQ ringleader, was incoherently ranting about Tesla bankwuptcy once again:

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter​

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"Lol, yes once $TSLA files 11 we'll all be blocking each other... Kind of like when the warring nations of Earth get together to fight the space aliens, then once we've kicked their asses we go back to fighting each other, lol."​

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And Russ Mitchell @ LA Times replied to Mark B. Spiegel with a passionate message:

Russ Mitchell on Twitter​

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"I can’t imagine ever blocking any of you."​

Where the 'you' must refer to Mark B. Spiegel and the TSLAQ cult, because numerous Tesla supporters are still blocked by Russ Mitchell today, because he is using the TSLAQ Twitter censorship block-list ...

In what world is it OK for a reporter of the LA Times to use the TSLAQ Twitter "enemies list" to block Tesla supporters, and to tweet supportive messages to a deranged, serial misogynistic TSLAQ propagandist??

While I agree with you, based on your conversation with Ivan Penn @ NYT that he was probably caught up in a storm he didn't intend to get caught up in, and I also believe that he is a good guy at heart and has only the best intentions, as @neroden said it was his name on the article, and the "it wasn't me but my [anonymous] editors" defense sounds hollow and is even more damning if true.

I also agree with you that the NYT editorial board and Broder in particular does not have direct influence over anything a NYT reporter writes, and that Patrick Soon-Shiong, owner of the LA Times, probably doesn't have to tell any LA Times reporter that they should not bite the hand that is feeding them, and that ... harsh criticism of a business competitor is not a career ending move either.

I also agree with you that unjustified, over the top criticism of successful reporters is counterproductive, and that the tone of our criticism should always be civilized and should always be rooted in facts, is it your suggestion that we should just sit together and sing Kumbaya, while the TSLAQ terrorists and the many reporters and editors in the mass media aiding and abetting them are pushing a burning world towards the abyss?

View attachment 423048​

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Here’s what global warming looks like month by month for 137 years​

I don't expect fair Tesla and green technology coverage from Fox News or redstate.com, but The New York Times and the LA Times are both bastions of the liberal political Zeitgeist, they should be at the front line to inform the public about global warming and the ways to most effectively fight it, such as the electrification of transportation.

Also, we are not asking for much, we are not asking them to (gasp) support Tesla's mission although it would be the morally right thing to do considering their political affiliation - we simply expect these major newspapers to report neutrally and factually about Tesla and EVs in general and not hinder them unfairly.

The negative skew in Tesla and EV reporting is astounding, at the same time the NY Times is misleading readers about nonexistent 5+ hour charge times on a single-recharge road trip to Las Vegas, a Model 3 owner on a Tesla v3 Supercharger demonstrated a charging speed from 10% to 60% (160 miles, 250 kilometers) of around ~12 minutes:

Tesla Model 3 On SuperCharger V3 — Adds 50% Range In Under 12 Minutes! (Charts!) | CleanTechnica​

Instead the New York Times and the LA Times are de facto protecting the status quo, disinforming the part of the public that is ready to do something, sometimes in the most horrible ways, and our criticism is not nearly as harsh as the crime that is being committed deserves.

I happened to revisit this post today. Sigh.. I really miss Fact Checking. He is not that effective in Twitter. His verbose, very detailed factual posts suits better for a TMC like forum. I miss him.

 

[PokerFJÆS]

Omar extremely impressed with FSD beta 8.2. Two minute clip with car handling numerous challenging situations without intervention.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370974296730824704

 

[Singuy]

The Taycan has the strongest regen of any EV. 265 KW. It’s also mapped to the brake pedal. Friction brakes will basically only be used during emergency braking and performance driving.

The Taycan has multiple drive modes with many active and dynamic aerodynamic features. The car was tested basically in the least efficient mode for highway range.

• The car lowers 22mm in Sport and Range mode. Normal mode was used for EPA testing
• Active spoiler with multiple positions. In Range mode it maximizes range instead of downforce
• The first gear is used to increase performance. It can be disabled to extend the range, or in Range mode
• Active aerodynamic front with different positions based on driving mode and speed
• The Taycan was also tested with 21” Michelin Pilot Sport4. There are multiple configurations offered. For someone more concerned about range there are 19” LRR tires with aero wheels.

When Bjorn Nyland tested the Taycan, he basically observed the same efficiency as a Model S

By basically you mean it doesn't using the same tires.

Taycan: 203wh/km @ 68 degrees F 19 inch tires
Raven S: 196wh/km @ 59 degrees F 19 inch tires

 

[Mo City]

Omar extremely impressed with FSD beta 8.2. Two minute clip with car handling numerous challenging situations without intervention.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370974296730824704

Really good stuff!

However, a confession: Ever since Elon said v.8.3 "has literally ~1000 improvements" over v.8.2, I began to find it hard to watch more videos of 8.2. (Well, that and the fact I have a chance to participate in 8.3 when it's released).

Not to mention v.9 being a "step change" that might roll out next month.