Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Thanks for this data.

I have completely missed the Tesla BEV Competition Developments thread, lots of good info in there.


Are there any good estimates of global cell production over the next few years, and/or estimates of Tesla's share of production and usage? I've seen several estimates of Tesla's production/usage, but none that I trust.

I've not seen any good information out there that attempts to put more industrial clothing on Battery Day, but please shout if you see anything (and PM me to pay attention).

I have my own projections of course but the error bars on the several key unknowns get stupidly large within just a few years. By now you will have seen the 2019 and 2020 data I put in that thread (Tesla BEV Competition Developments), including various other posts on the cell-supplier and cell-user data (the square 'treemap' charts). Reviewing earlier years it is not of interest to put significant effort into analysing the earlier years as the volumes were far smaller. Non-EV cell usage is relatively constant in most sectors, excepting storage, and storage is mostly taking just sub-par or recycled cell streams that are not viable for EVs. So the EV cell usage is the stream to concentrate on at present as that is currently where the GM% is highest. At present Tesla is at about 30% of global EV cell usage and that TSLA-EV% seems to be holding steady. Whether that TSLA-EV% it continues to hold steady over the next few years is one unknown (my guess for the next few years is about 30%). Whether / how fast the own-manufacture cell stream (Kato Rd etc) grows is another unknown (I reckon Tesla's preference will be to control 25-35% of their own supply, ideally no more, though they will go to 100% if the cell people do not step on the pedal). And when the storage usage starts ramping independently of the EV usage is a third big unknown (I reckon in 2-3 years as that is when I think the GM% in TSLA storage product reaches parity with GM% in TSLA BEV).

It is all about cell supply. It really is this simple. (excepting FSD as a generalised mobility interaction AI)

 

[st_lopes]

My guess is there are no tax laws on this yet as I think it was assumed of someone was to buy real goods with bitcoin the merchant would convert to USD. This may very briefly be one of those things no law exists for. I’m not saying that IS the case and I am most certainly not giving advice.

There are tax laws that capture these transactions. Absent IRS deeming BTC a currency, this would be a barter transaction. With BTC having a quotable market, it’s not complicated as to how the transaction is valued at the point of transfer.

If you buy euros and then buy and car in Europe is it tax cheating? I 100% have no knowledge here but it strikes me as a grey area legally speaking. I personally avoid legal grey areas because of a discomfort with ambiguity but it’s worth thinking about.

Actually gains and losses on foreign exchange are in fact taxable events. Technically people should self report those. Businesses do report fluctuations as taxable events, individuals don’t tend do, but again, they technically should.

CNBC is reporting that Tesla will add Btc payments as additions to their existing hoard.

It seems unclear how accounting booking will be valued on these events. Is this a true sale or a barter or what. So additional Btc are being accumulated in exchange for product maybe?

Not that unclear. It’s a barter transaction with both sides of the transaction having clear, market rates (ie, BTC has a known value at time of transaction, inventory has a known cost).

Tesla will record revenues at the fiat converted value of the amount of BTC they receive as payment. The BTC will be added to their stock pile. The simplistic journal entr(ies) will likely be the following. There are likely some minor entries relating to transaction fees that I am ignoring here - also possible they would just record the net of fees amounts.

Debit...Treasury Asset (measured at USD spot rate value of BTC received)
Credit...Revenue (USD value of BTC received)

Debit...Cost of Goods Sold
Credit...Inventory

The fluctuations of BTC held as a treasury asset would then be subject to the intangible asset impairment rules, which I’ve discussed in other posts (ie, they don’t record increases in value unless the BTC is sold, they record decreases in value).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Crypto, FSD technical capabilities, Battery Day tech rollout. Would love to be part of these conversations if they were in a place they could be followed without wading through piles of other crap.

Inching out of a pandemic is a great time to think about the downside of having a one-thread discussion forum. A one-thread forum is a chat room, discussion forums are better!

 

[scaesare]

Well, OTA, or not, it's great that Porsche can give some updates to older cars, once against demonstrating the superiority of EV's over ICEv

AS regards the charging rate adjustment, if I read this correctly, are Porsche admitting that if you charge the car according to the advertised rate then you'll damage the battery?

The sports car maker also noted that the maximum charging speed reduction had been requested by some Porsche customers. This was explained by Robert Meier, Taycan vehicle line director, in a statement to the media on Monday. “The charging process might take 5 to 10 minutes longer, but it gives some battery saving for customers who want to take care of the battery.”

The logical corollary to the part of his quote I underlined is "The default setting is fine for those who do not want to take care of their battery."

Not the best response I've seen, lol.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pre-market looking great. Macros looking great. 26% of Pennsylvanian's have had at least 1 vaccination shot. Green infrastructure legislation is in the works.

I think at $662, 26.5% off the ATH and below inclusion, there's an argument to made for LEAPs. With all this level of market certainty and mega-tailwinds on the horizon......at some point the dam needs to break. Either near term SP needs to move appreciably northward, or investors need to(and IMO will) dive head-first into low IV LEAPs.

Good times.

 

[elasalle]

If EV infrastructure buildout is part of the overall infrastructure bill, is Tesla gonna participate and create generic SuperChargers that can be used by all brand going forward?
I think Tesla has the best tech out there right now. So question then is will they make current superchargers available to all, or create the generic superchargers seperately?
(News from while back was that VW charging stations were Tesla SC in camo gear )

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So question then is will they make current superchargers available to all, or create the generic superchargers seperately?

Given the master plan, I would guess yes and no. The whole point was to influence and pull forward the entire market, not be the entire market. Innovate and then move to the next thing. No need to pump out ACME EV chargers.

 

[Krugerrand]

They gave Taycan owners the option of lowering charging speed from 270kW to 200kW.

If you care more about speed keep it at 270kW.

You care more about long term battery health then lower it to 200kW.

That’s ok. I’ll just sit over here in this corner and wait for the complaints from Porsche owners to start. You know, the ones about battery degradation because this right here doesn’t signal any issues whatsoever. Nope. Nothing to see here. Totally normal to offer a *less* option after the fact.

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-market looking great. Macros looking great. 26% of Pennsylvanian's have had at least 1 vaccination shot. Green infrastructure legislation is in the works.

I think at $662, 26.5% off the ATH and below inclusion, there's an argument to made for LEAPs. With all this level of market certainty and mega-tailwinds on the horizon......at some point the dam needs to break. Either near term SP needs to move appreciably northward, or investors need to(and IMO will) dive head-first into low IV LEAPs.

Good times.

Your a drug dealer.

 

[H Mak]

In the UK you can't get away from "Tesla to accept Bitcoin" headlines on the news sites and Twitter. More free advertising.

 

[ZeApelido]

Spent the morning browsing /r/Cryptocurrency, slightly disappointed by the reception.

On one hand, it's definitely great free advertising. The news is occupying spots #2 and #3 on their front page, and people are happy for what Musk is doing to legitimize their beliefs.

On the other hand, they aren't chomping at the bit. The most common comment is around the lines of "Buying a Tesla with BTC in 2021 will be the new buying a pizza with BTC in 2010."

This is why deflation is economically brutal.

 

[Krugerrand]

Every BEV battery pack will degrade faster at max charging rate than 80% of max charging rate.

Tesla explains why it limits Supercharging speed after high numbers of DC charges

The Tesla community had another small technical/communication controversy this week that was not unlike the controversy around Tesla’s undisclosed performance...

electrek.co

Rob, we all get that. The problem is how you’re conveying this. Tesla does it and it’s ‘omg!!! How dare they’. Porsche does it (because we already knew it would happen) and you’re trying to pass if off as a ‘yawn’.

This IS a big deal. And Porsche needs to wear the egg, particularly after being so smug and superior in all their ads and talk. They effed up.

 

[elasalle]

Given the master plan, I would guess yes and no. The whole point was to influence and pull forward the entire market, not be the entire market. Innovate and then move to the next thing. No need to pump out ACME EV chargers.

Lot of monies and potentially work for GF Buffalo to not participate at all? I don't think making SC's are part of any bottlenecks are they? (No battery dependencies?)
Add solar roof's to each of the charging stations and you would even be increasing Solar panel volumes.
If Batteries are added to mix, then in future more potential for being part of any micro-grid and being part of Autobidder eco-system?

 

[scaesare]

This was a thing years ago, article is from 2017, is it still necessary? And AFIAK it's more to do with the frequency of charging rather than the rate itself, no? Also charging to 100% was more of an issue?

I've not seen a Supercharged-capped car for a long time now, you used to see them pop up for sale, but to any more. I suspect its no longer an issue and Tesla's battery management software looks after it.

Come to think of it, didn't get the 100% battery warning for a long time either, not that we've been able to go anywhere the last year.

Battery advancements no doubt help but the fact remains that, all things being equal, the closer to 100% charge (and the longer the duration the cell remains there), the harder it is on a Li-ion cell.

Additionally the greater the overall charge rate the greater stress on the battery on a couple of fronts (chemical, thermal, etc...). Generally a rate of 1C is relatively "safe", but the further you push that rate, the more you need methods to try and counter the effects (pack cooling, etc...)

 

[joh01652]

They gave Taycan owners the option of lowering charging speed from 270kW to 200kW.

If you care more about speed keep it at 270kW.

You care more about long term battery health then lower it to 200kW.

I don't buy it.

High speed charging has two functions: 1) get the customer back on the road ASAP so they can continue on their trip; and 2) open the charging stall as quickly as possible so another customer can charge and then continue on their trip as quickly as possible. Public fast charging is all about throughput.

I would be upset if people went to a Supercharger and knocked the charge rate down to 60kW so they could walk over to the nearby diner and have a leisurely lunch. People shouldn't be allowed to adjust charge rate at public fast chargers any more than they can adjust flow rate at a gas pump. Pump your gas and get moving, charge your car at the fastest rate the battery management system allows and get moving.

Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a "Batterygate" in VW groups future....

 

[traxila]

So the same people who say that BTC is a legitimate currency are also proving that it isn’t. You can’t make this stuff up.

Most crypto enthusiasts are now pointing to BTC specifically as digital gold, a store of value, as opposed to an every day currency. First mover advantage and increasing scarcity is music to the ears of inflation hawks

There are other cryptos out there that are faster, have almost zero transaction fees and are scalable. If cryptos are currency in the future for buying a pack of gum, it will not be BTC.

 

[Krugerrand]

I’m one of the most bullish TMCers when it comes to Bitcoin but this move from Elon is causing anxiety.

1.) BTC has the potential to plummet down to 25K. It would start to create losses on vehicle sales. I don’t think Tesla sells enough cars with BTC to matter but the bears will assume all 800k cars delivered this year was all in BTC.

2.) State governments will want their pound of flesh. Is the tax and registration going to be paid in fiat?

I it like I s. Tesla is the gift that keeps on giving. OEMs are sooooooo behind the times. *giggling like a 5 year old*

 

[elasalle]

I don't buy it.

High speed charging has two functions: 1) get the customer back on the road ASAP so they can continue on their trip; and 2) open the charging stall as quickly as possible so another customer can charge and then continue on their trip as quickly as possible. Public fast charging is all about throughput.

I would be upset if people went to a Supercharger and knocked the charge rate down to 60kW so they could walk over to the nearby diner and have a leisurely lunch. People shouldn't be allowed to adjust charge rate at public fast chargers any more than they can adjust flow rate at a gas pump. Pump your gas and get moving, charge your car at the fastest rate the battery management system allows and get moving.

Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a "Batterygate" in VW groups future....

Bottomline is they gave 270Kw charging option without talking about Battery degradation, and tried to boast that they were the best technology out there.
Without Tesla V3 Superchargers, they would have been marketing themselves as the best with Charging Tech, and surpassing Tesla. (i.e migrating to EV for incumbents was so easy) So yes, I think they forgot to put clarifications in fine print

 

[Unpilot]

I it like I s. Tesla is the gift that keeps on giving. OEMs are sooooooo behind the times. *giggling like a 5 year old*

Dangerously close to a poem there...cat.

 

[Krugerrand]

...the issue is how will tesla report its sale on income statement, and how will fluctuation impact the income.

I’m pretty sure The Master of Coin has it figured it out.